A Viper's Random Thoughts on Draft Tendencies

[viper]

The players drafted change every year but the mix among Hitters, Starting Pitchers and Closers/Setups is almost a constant. My sample size right now is small but the results are exactly as I would have predicted.

My three samples are my MDC draft last Thursday with ARC and Mark, the MB Slow draft and the ADP sent by the NFBC. The ADP was for the 13 completed NFBC slow drafts. These slow draft drafted 45 players per team but I do feel the first half of the draft would pretty much go as any normal NFBC league would go. I wish i could create fancy tables but this will have to do.

First 10 rounds:
MDC
101 Hitters
33 SPs
16 RPs

SLOW
102 hitters
35 SPs
13 RPs

ADP
98 hitters
35 SPs
17 RPs

Second 10 rounds
MDC
88 hitters
46 SPs
16 RPs

SLOW
92 hitters
40 SPs
18 RPs

ADP
90 hitters
44 SPs
16 RPs

Inside the numbers what I see is for MDC, SLOW and ADP
1. SPs taken in rounds 1-4 were 9-7-10
2. SPs taken in rounds 5-7 were 16-14-13
3. SPs taken in rounds 8-10 were 8-14-12
4. SPs taken in rounds 11-13 were 8-11-12

The MDC draft was slightly pitchers heavy at first but slowed down.
1. RPs taken in rounds 1-4 were 0-0-0 [none in the first 4 rounds]
2. RPs taken in rounds 5-7 were 6-5-6
3. RPs taken in rounds 8-10 were 10-8-11
4. RPs taken in rounds 11-13 were 7-11-8
5. RPs taken in rounds 14-16 were 5-5-3
about now all the closers were gone - at least the known closers as the totals were 28-29-28

RPs taken in rounds 17-20 were 4-2-5 [the cupboard was bare]

This is highly typical of the mix of hitters/SPs/RPs.

What you can get out of this is were people tend to move from hitters to pitchers and what there mix is between SPs and RPs.

A final interesting note is that rounds 17-19 were extremely concentrated on hitting. The mix in my three samples was
33-33-31. Of the other seven rounds rounds 11-20, there were only two cases of double digit hitters taken. Both were in the slow draft in rounds 16 & 20. I have no clue what this means except I suspect most view the pitching pool to be depleted at about round 16/17

Just some number to look at on a slow Sunday.

[Black Sox]

Viper,

Just wondering how if at all the % of hitters vs pitchers would change in a 10 team mix league. In my $$ draft's I've noticed many teams what I consider overdrafting P. It's something that has surprised me, and I've had to adjust for it.

[viper]

no clue on ten team leagues. The reason I like the NFBC is that you can get ADPs from actual being played leagues rather than mock drafts.

The absolute best ADP is the one from the main event but that is not available until after it is too late.

[AllstonRockCity]

A final interesting note is that rounds 17-19 were extremely concentrated on hitting. The mix in my three samples was
33-33-31. Of the other seven rounds rounds 11-20, there were only two cases of double digit hitters taken. Both were in the slow draft in rounds 16 & 20. I have no clue what this means except I suspect most view the pitching pool to be depleted at about round 16/17

That is quite interesting. In the 2 fast mocks I have done so far, I've taken 5 hitters and 1 pitcher in those 3 rounds. And while people viewing the pitching pool as depleted at that point must be a factor, I think there may be another one.

Let's look at the 16 rounds leading up to round 17. The vast majority of team will start with 4 hitters in rounds 1 through 4. That leaves 12 rounds (5 through 16) before we get to the 17th. If most teams end these 16 rounds with a 10/6 or 9/7 hitter/pitcher split that means about 6 or 7 of the 12 picks a team has in rounds 5 to 16 will be pitchers. That's 1/2 to just over 1/2 of your picks in those 12 rounds.
I have a feeling that lots of people look at their team at some point around round 16 and think "Boy, I've been taking a lot of pitching lately, look at all the holes I still have in my lineup and look at the caliber of hitter left, I better bulk up while I still can."

I know for me personally that is exactly why I've taken 5H to 1P in rounds 17-19. You have 14 active hitters. If after 16 rounds you only have 9 or 10 of those spots filled, you want to fill as many remaining holes with as many good hitters remaining as you can. Add to that the fact the the quality of the remaining pitchers tapers off slowly until the end of the draft and you get this focus on hitting in these rounds.

PS - Great analysis. Thank you.

[Captain Hook]

Viper,

Just wondering how if at all the % of hitters vs pitchers would change in a 10 team mix league. In my $$ draft's I've noticed many teams what I consider overdrafting P. It's something that has surprised me, and I've had to adjust for it.

not a viper here, but still venemous

In such a shallow league, the top pitchers SHOULD be drafted earlier and heavier than the hitters in viper's breakdown because there are tons of hitters left to fill only ten teams - YOU need to be drafting STUD hitters, STUD pitchers, more pitchers, positional hitters, more pitchers and then filling out rosters with hitters and finally more pitchers and then reserve hitters (assuming you draft bench players)

[deansdaddy]

Agree with the Captain here.

I always play at least one ESPN 10 teamer a year - just to keep in touch with it. It's a much different gameplan. The STUD SP's have even more value and you will want to get them earlier than you might otherwise. That said - don't ignore your offense. I try to build an offense that I won't have to mess with very much and dedicate as many spots to pitching as possible. If you are in a trading league this makes even more sense. If you grab a Lincecum and/or CC in a trading league - you can always peddle them off if you need offense later on.