NFBC Strategy

[deansdaddy]

We will be having our first scheduled chat of the season this Thursday, Feb. 25th at 12 noon ET. The topic of discussion will be NFBC Rules and Draft Procedures.
Perry Van Hook will be joining me to help answer your questions and give advice. If you can't make it live to the session - you can post your question beforehand and Perry and I will answer them on Thursday. I will also jump back on at 9:30 pm ET to answer more questions for anyone who can't make the morning session. So let's start populating the thread with specific questions for Perry and our veteran players.

[andrew16920]

I assume you provide an general overview of the categories that we will compete in as well as any special considerations that need to be taken into account when building our teams

Reagrds,
AN

[deansdaddy]

Hey Andrew

Yes - go to the Rules thread and follow the link to the rules page. We will touch on these subjects - but if you have any specific questions post them here.

[bjoak]

Guys...9AM for a chat? Really? Not like 4 or 6 (PM)?

[deansdaddy]

Guys...9AM for a chat? Really? Not like 4 or 6 (PM)?

Brian - the early portion of the Chat is when Perry is available to join us here -so we can post some questions for him to give his take on ahead of time. He'll get us started in the morning then later in the day I'll find time to jump back and answer more questions/discuss things - I can likely jump back on for an extended visit at about 9:30pm ET - which is 6 out west - for anyone who can't make the early session.

[viper]

well, the go to bed part is about right.

[mbendar]

I'll start off with KDS comments/questions since that's in the rules.

I think, based on his NFBC chat, that Shawn Childs always goes 1-15 in the KDS rankings to get the best pick available. Given his success, is that the best strategy? (follow-up below)

Do you think long-term or early round specific, or both when making your KDS rankings?

Because you don't know how a draft will go, it is best to always take the best available in case someone slips where they shouldn't (ridiculous example for this year, Pujols slips to 5 and you don't get him because KDS rank order is 7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3, etc.)

I likely will not able to attend the chat live, but look forward to seeing responses to this and other questions tomorrow.

Mark

[Jim F]

Sure I would like a top 3 pick but I also like the middle for runs and the end this year the way I want to attack the draft and how I see some players bunched up. I guess I really don't care where I draft from.

My question is:

Am I crazy? Do I have a shot at the title drafting from the back end?

I always read people complain about not having a shot drafting from the end and I just don't see it.

[Captain Hook]

Mark I will post an early answer to your question and it may help with more discussion on the subject.

Shawn among many other top players wants the best player available in the first round but also doesn't want to "outthink himself" by getting too cute with the KDS.

Your point is valid.....to a degree.....but the question for each drafter is...."if I pick at 1.??, who would I pick?" Obviously that is relative to who is there for you and yes there might be a mistake...but most everyone in the event would like to start by picking Pujols or Hanley Ramirez this year and then the opinions go different ways.

If I was setting a KDS for this year's event, I would likely go something like 1,2,15,14,13 and then gravitate towards the middle. My reason is that if I don't have the first or second pick, I have a better chance of an ideal combination by picking at the end of the draft and hoping I can get whichever 1B fell together with Carl Crawford

In terms of pure position, alluding again to players slipping, I would prefer to be in the middle of the draft...at 8 or 7 or 9.....because often when players pick at the turn they are reaching for a certain player(s) and the "value" tends to fall to the middle. And of course you are not as subject to a severe run, although that happens far fewer times in NFBC main event drafts than people are used to in softer leagues.

[viper]

I wish I could find an old column of mine from my days at Creativesports. Here is what I remember.

I recall suggesting the drafting from the middle was easiest. Some of the reasons were:

1. you would never get out of touch when a run on closers [or any position] started. If you are drafting from the #2 hole and choose not to take the first closer, consider what would happen if that closer went next. Like lemmings drawn to the sea, you can expect numerous other owners to grab their first closer. By the time the draft returns to you you could find 6-8 closers off the board. Now this is less likely at the top tier of closers but when that second tier starts to go, it often goes quickly. Of course, jumping the gun is just as bad as missing the start. No issues like this from the middle.

2. You are always looking for players that slipped, at least, based on your projections/evaluations. I argued that drafting at the #8 hole, you would almost always find a player who should have gone [again in your mind] just about every time after about round three. Realize there are always 14 picks until you select again. This means every pick you make should provide a slipped player. At the ends of the draft, you will grab a forgotten player on your first of the two picks but not necesarily on the second.

3. Most people draft somewhat on feel and how the draft is progressing. Drafts have ebbs and flows and we like to think we are good and seeing them and taking advantage. It is much easier when you draft around the middle. The middle provides a peace of mind.

4. Drafting from the edges pretty much requires a plan and that plan must be followed. If you panic on a pair of picks, you are in deep trouble. A mistake from the middle has less repercussions.

All that said, my KDS will be 1-15.

I have practiced from the edges and I feel I have the emotional where-with-all to handle the things you have to think about. A plus in drafting from the edges is that you know that any players you consider as options will be gone when you next get to pick. From the middle, you always have hope that your sleeper will slide back.

Shawn Childs wants the chance to get the best player at the start. Realize he has more knowledge than most everyone on this site. If not knowledge, then confidence. He seems to be an instinctive player whose track record is in the upper tier of all fantasy players.

[UK BlueCat]

In looking over the rules, the 2 most obvious discussion points for me would be what to do with KDS and also how to attack the new Friday offensive substitution rule. Since we have already started KDS, I'll focus more on the substitution rule. How do you think this will affect the makeup of your bench? I know for myself, I normally like to have a jack of all trades type that is eligible at multiple positions and then another player to cover what positions are left. From there, I normally carry a couple streaming starters and some middle relief type pitchers. Thus with a 5 or 6 man bench, I might carry maybe 2 hitters and the rest pitchers. With this new strategy, it seems like it may be more beneficial to carry a few more sticks to play some of the weekend matchups.

[viper]

Opinions differ.

This rule divides the hitting week into a 4-day and 3-day stretch. More closely is two 3-day periods as teams often get either Monday or Thursday off. With plate appearances a key to counting numbers, if you have a choice between two equal and weak players, one of which will be starting, you may choose the guy with more opportunities. All things being equal, if one is up against Lincecum, you may go the other way. If one is in Coors and the other in Petco, you may like Coors. This could work well if Colorado is at home Mon-Wed and at San Diego Fri-Sun. Play your Coors guy the first part of the week and then switch. If you want to check out lefty-righty matchups, you may go one way or another.

I would play my studs all the time but each team will have two or three marginal starters. If you bench is constructed properly, you have option.

This whole process in new and match-up gaming will take time. How much time you have to review the matchups will be the likely determining factor. Some will do a lot of it and others won't. I have one daily move leagues, one NFBC league and probably six weekly move leagues. I will have time to do matchups.

I do believe this rule went into effect because MLB teams were slow in putting players on the DL. The old rule allowed for Friday movement only if the player was on the DL at midnight Thursday. There have always been multiple board posts when there was a delay in a player going on the DL. Additionally, in September, many times a player was declared out for the year on Monday after lineups for the week were frozen AND, because of expanded rosters, they never were placed on the DL. You were stuck with zero stats for the week.

Opposition to this rule was that many players didn't want to have to review there teams on Thursday nights. It was very easy to see if a player was officially on the DL. It takes time on Friday morning to see if a player went day-to-day after a late game injury on the west coast.

I do think that more hitters will be on the bench than before.

[Captain Hook]

One of the keys will be deeper knowledge of the players drafted in the later rounds whether they are at MI, CI or late OF slots. The reason I say that is that there are some players with either:
1) Severe splits vs LHP or RHP; or
2) Sever home/road splits
and knowing these players will be a big help in setting up possible platoons for YOUR team.

A couple of years ago....in fact I believe it was while the "band" was still at Mastersball, I recommended a free agent hitter that almost no one had rostered......this would be an even better use of Eduardo Perez' talents than what I originally suggested which was to find the weeks that Cleveland would face three or more LHP and play Perez over your weak CI.........NOW you would simply plug him in when he would be facing a LHP in two of three or four games and not lose as many AB for your other hitter.

Another situation where you would switch out players would be a solid OF who was a right handed hitter and in Boston facing Beckett, Lackey, and Buchholz for the weekend......even IF you didn't have a good matchup play, you might bench him for a rabbit hoping to pick up a few stolen bases while at the same time protecting your BAvg.

I think that many players so inclined will get very deep into these types of situations this year.

[rotodog]

Will our Rookie rule of having to draft 6 SP pitchers on draft day affect anything other than some guy trying some extreme RP strategy? And Is that rule 6 active SP's out of nine? Or six SP including the Bench?

[Captain Hook]

Will our Rookie rule of having to draft 6 SP pitchers on draft day affect anything other than some guy trying some extreme RP strategy? And Is that rule 6 active SP's out of nine? Or six SP including the Bench?

It really should NOT affect anything. You can't effectively compete in the Main Event by blowing off two categories.

It is any six SP.....if the average roster is 17 hitters and 13 pitchers there is still plenty of room for whichever relievers you want to roster (theoretically if you had thirteen pitchers on your NFBC roster only three or four would be relievers and many would only have two closers and the rest starters).

[bjoak]

In looking over the rules, the 2 most obvious discussion points for me would be what to do with KDS and also how to attack the new Friday offensive substitution rule. Since we have already started KDS, I'll focus more on the substitution rule. How do you think this will affect the makeup of your bench? I know for myself, I normally like to have a jack of all trades type that is eligible at multiple positions and then another player to cover what positions are left. From there, I normally carry a couple streaming starters and some middle relief type pitchers. Thus with a 5 or 6 man bench, I might carry maybe 2 hitters and the rest pitchers. With this new strategy, it seems like it may be more beneficial to carry a few more sticks to play some of the weekend matchups.

Edited already? It was just a link! Okay, I'll play nice:

1. I wouldn't worry too much about KDS. Last year I thought you had to have a top four pick because those guys far outweighed everyone else in value. But a couple of those guys were Reyes and Wright. Unhappily, I got sacked with the 13th pick, but I grabbed Utley who ended up a top earner. You can win from anywhere. In addition, there are a lot of good players toward the end of the first and beginning of the second this year--more than I've ever seen. If ever there was a year for parity between beginning and end picks this is it. Feel good taking a pick wherever you like.

2. I can't see the Friday rule changing much. In a perfect world, I will go from a four pitcher, three hitter bench to its opposite. But that is in a perfect world. In reality, the laws of supply and demand will dictate who goes on my bench like they always have. If an OF who has 16th round value is still available in the 24th round, I'm taking him, regardless of what I liked for my bench.

[viper]

Players with multiple eligibility can do wonders. If you have a 2BSS starting at middle, a 1B3B starting at the corner and a OF at UTIL, just having one corner and one middle on your bench allows for any non-catcher to be sat for that half week. In most cases, you can get away with a totally flexible non-catching team with three bench hitter.

I normally started the year with two bench hitters and five bench pitchers. Not sure what I will do this year. I always felt my bench should have two closers-in-waiting and a few speculative pitchers. There wasn't a real need to have many hitters because you could only move disabled players. This rule does change things a bit.

I do think that some folks will over-think the matchup concept. Or maybe I am under-thinking it.

[August West]

I think I'm missing something ..... where is the chat room?

A couple of real basic topics that might be covered in the chat could be when to start drafting pitchers and bench composition.

[deansdaddy]

Will our Rookie rule of having to draft 6 SP pitchers on draft day affect anything other than some guy trying some extreme RP strategy? And Is that rule 6 active SP's out of nine? Or six SP including the Bench?

It's six SP's total - I wanted to make sure owners were forced to tackle the challenge of assembling a rotation of starters without asking Greg to alter the innings minimum rule already in place.

You can draft those six starters wherever you like in the 30 rds even in Rds 25-30 if you choose (although I wouldn't recommend that). Yes it was done to minimize the effect of someone drafting an All-RP team mainly because it is near impossible to win the Main Event this way. Once the season starts we will follow the rules as written - so you will have the freedom to manage your roster however you choose once the season begins.

[deansdaddy]

I think I'm missing something ..... where is the chat room?

This is the form we will use for message board "chats" - mainly to put the information out there for anyone who comes to the boards and for posterity.

A couple of real basic topics that might be covered in the chat could be when to start drafting pitchers and bench composition.

Hey Tom - we will definitely have a separate discussion specifically related to approaching the Draft sometime next week where we will dig deeper into Roster Construction. I do think there are a couple of rules that are related to you question, so I'll throw them out to Perry to get his take on it.

[UK BlueCat]

Well it's included the rules so I guess I'll ask, any veterans figure out a way to avoid paying taxes on your winnings?

[August West]

Sounds like you want to be aggressive so here's an aggressive suggestion

Hobby income is reportable to the extent of hobby expenses. Unlike a business, you can't use hobby losses to offset the rest of your income. In other words, if you spent $1,300 to enter NFBC Main Event and come in 12th in your league, you can't deduction anything. However, you are able to deduct hobby expenses from your hobby revenue. You can deduct your entry fees to every fantasy contest you enter as well as your travel and hotel expenses, subscriptions to websites, any magazines or books that you buy and A PORTION of your ISP charges. For the ISP charges, it would be be best to for one month keep a log of how often you are online on the account that you are deducting and how often you are doing fantasy sports related work. Then use that percentage as the amount that of your isp charges that you are going to deduct. You don't want to deduct all of your isp charges because the IRS knows you are not spending all your online time doing fantasy sports.

I am a CPA. This is what I'd do for myself and what I'd recommend to clients.

[UK BlueCat]

Wow Tom, excellent piece of advice! I was just playin' around trying to be funny but you actually enlightened me with your post. I had no idea that could be done, thanks.

[deansdaddy]

First off - Thanks Perry for coming in and answering some of our questions. For those of you who don't know Perry - he is a longtime participant in many of the best know expert leagues (Tout Wars, LABR and the XFL). He's just returned to Mastersball and I would recommend that if you have any questions about prospects or rookie players in Spring Training - you head over to the Prospects & Minor League forum and post questions for Perry over there as well. I know that I will be looking forward to Perry's blog's from Arizona this Spring.

So Perry - here's a couple of questions regarding rules that effect the draft:

1) There are no D.L. or Minor League roster spots in the NFBC. We get 23 active spots and 7 reserves. Does this fact alter the approach you take to the draft from say a league like the XFL? Do you downgrade injury prone players significantly? How does it effect how you value Rookies?

2) In an NFBC draft, you are NOT required to have a legal starting roster after 23 rounds. For example - I can wait til Pick 30 to choose my second starting C if I choose. How important is it for players to keep this in mind?

[Captain Hook]

So Perry - here's a couple of questions regarding rules that effect the draft:

1) There are no D.L. or Minor League roster spots in the NFBC. We get 23 active spots and 7 reserves. Does this fact alter the approach you take to the draft from say a league like the XFL? Do you downgrade injury prone players significantly? How does it effect how you value Rookies?

2) In an NFBC draft, you are NOT required to have a legal starting roster after 23 rounds. For example - I can wait til Pick 30 to choose my second starting C if I choose. How important is it for players to keep this in mind?

1) Each team has seven reserve spots on the roster for whichever players you decide you need. When a player goes on the DL during the season, you would just reserve him to keep him BUT it would depend on how good the player is and how long he is supposed to be out of action whether you actually dropped him instead of carrying him on the reserve. (for instance if you drafted Rollins at short and he was going to be out a few weeks with a hangnail you would not drop him...but if your MI drafted in the 23rd round was going to be out for a while and you could get a comparable player from the free agent pile, you would probably just make the drop/add and not reserve the injured player (you might reserve for weekend and then drop and add on Sunday)

REMEMBER that the roster spots are VERY valuable - whether it is for extra starters, a closer in waiting, an injured player or solid backup (or now matchupP players) these players have value and part of your decision making each week in picking up free agents is that that player can help your lineup AND who you are going to have to cut to add him. Carrying minor leaguers who "might" come up later in the year will hinder your team management, so if you draft one they better a) be spectacular; and b.) be guaranteed that they are coming up fairly quickly.

2) I think this rule gets in people's heads more than it really should.....BUT let's say you are late in the draft and have several pitchers you think have good chances at being very productive (maybe competing for starter slot on their team) and you need pitching - you might draft several in a row and not filling your fifth OF slot because there are a ton of same value outfielders that will still be there several rounds from now......and of course the reverse scenario is true. The most plentiful player pools are obviously for P and OF

One thing that you will see (just go to our February Mock Draft and look at the selections and rosters available in the blog section from the front page) is that some drafters will decide to the last few rounds to draft their second catcher......I don't consider that a good strategic move - you will lose TONS of runs and rbi with crappy catchers or ones who are not starters.

[bjoak]

you are not spending all your online time doing fantasy sports

Speak for yourself!

[UK BlueCat]

This may be a topic for another discussion, but since there has been some talk about roster composition, which would you think is better to do, start with one of the better closers or go with an anchor starter? I've always been one of the guys who went dirt cheap on closers in my draft/auction and was able to speculate enough to compete in saves during the season. Even in my local leagues, owners have become very sharp and it's hard to get those closers in waiting past them. I would assume that this would be even more pronounced in an event like the NFBC which makes me think that taking a solid closer earlier may be a good plan to be competitive in saves.

[AllstonRockCity]

on the top right corner of the page, use the "search" function and type in "papelbon plan". you'll get extensive discussion on this topic that took place here last year.

Spoiler Alert: grabbing a stud closer early is recommended as they get you a nice ratio base in addition to Saves and hopefully some Ks.

[Captain Hook]

This may be a topic for another discussion, but since there has been some talk about roster composition, which would you think is better to do, start with one of the better closers or go with an anchor starter? I've always been one of the guys who went dirt cheap on closers in my draft/auction and was able to speculate enough to compete in saves during the season. Even in my local leagues, owners have become very sharp and it's hard to get those closers in waiting past them. I would assume that this would be even more pronounced in an event like the NFBC which makes me think that taking a solid closer earlier may be a good plan to be competitive in saves.

1) Never (over)pay for saves
2) Saves are plentiful (and some available later as free agents)
3) There are NO STUD SP you (and your leaguemates) don't know about

The first pitcher you take should be YOUR SP anchor for your team

[UK BlueCat]

Perry, I know a lot depends on how the draft goes and all, but assuming it goes pretty much according to plan, when are you taking that first saves guy?

[Captain Hook]

Perry, I know a lot depends on how the draft goes and all, but assuming it goes pretty much according to plan, when are you taking that first saves guy?

Normally I would have three pitchers rostered after the first ten picks....at least two of those would be the best starters I could get given that particular draft and my picks......I would draft a STUD closer (that is a short list) if they fell to me at the "right" point, otherwise I am perfectly fine with waiting on closers (last year I drafted both Aardsma and Franklin in very late rounds while they were free agents in many leagues)

[rotodog]

Perry or anyone experienced in NFBC,

During our NFBC mock, one participant switched gears and decided to go with an all RP plan. It was debated in the pick thread as if this could actually work. I know you dont agree with punting anything in a super competitive league. But could it work in a Sat league? Todd didnt advocate it, but he wasnt so quick to dismiss that it might actually work...he thought there might be chance.

I reiterate: Perry, I am aware of the fact that you do not advocate purposefully punting anything here...BUT

My question is two fold.

1.If it were to work, how would it have to go to work?

It was debated that you need two anchor SP's like Greinke and (add another Solid SP) ..

2. If this were to work, do you need two absolute top 10 pitchers to make it work, or could you go with a Cliff Lee and another 200 IP solid pitcher outside the top 10?.... Maybe a Lackey or worse a Scott baker type..

Do you feel a person could punt just one category, while loading up on other categories in a SAT league if it was done right......Any one category not so dependent on other categories like say... Sbs, Saves and to some extent AVG...

[rotodog]

one more :

With the new Monday/Friday change rule, Is there one or two of you favorite Free websites that are wonderful for lineup changes and playing time that you use?

For instance, Say its Friday at 11: 45 AM and I need a quick reference to decide on playing my lefty Mashing Jonny Gomes in Coors Field for the weekend. What do some of the best use as a quick reference for NON-Weekly changes in lineup to maximize he value? I am very aware of Rotoworld blurbing about Gomes being in the lineup against a lefty ..But, I am looking more for an easy one stop resource .... Like I said, I am waiting until an hour before lineup changes and looking for the quickest , easiest resource in maximizing this New Rule this year..

Thanks

[Captain Hook]

Perry or anyone experienced in NFBC,

During our NFBC mock, one participant switched gears and decided to go with an all RP plan. It was debated in the pick thread as if this could actually work. I know you dont agree with punting anything in a super competitive league. But could it work in a Sat league? Todd didnt advocate it, but he wasnt so quick to dismiss that it might actually work...he thought there might be chance.

I reiterate: Perry, I am aware of the fact that you do not advocate purposefully punting anything here...BUT

My question is two fold.

1.If it were to work, how would it have to go to work?

It was debated that you need two anchor SP's like Greinke and (add another Solid SP) ..

2. If this were to work, do you need two absolute top 10 pitchers to make it work, or could you go with a Cliff Lee and another 200 IP solid pitcher outside the top 10?.... Maybe a Lackey or worse a Scott baker type..

Do you feel a person could punt just one category, while loading up on other categories in a SAT league if it was done right......Any one category not so dependent on other categories like say... Sbs, Saves and to some extent AVG...

There are a lot of questions there, so hopefully I catch most of them - if I didn't specifically get one or you have a follow up question, please post that later.

In the NFBC Main Event, you are competing in two different fields at the same time:
1) your individual league; and
2) versus the entire field for overall awards

Aberrant strategies - whether all reliever or punting SB or just Saves can always work in INDIVIDUAL leagues whether home leagues, satellite leagues or even your single Main Event league.

BUT here is the question - if you are playing in the Main Event is YOUR goal to do the best you can in your league or the best you can in the entire contest? To me it doesn't make much sense to pay that $$$$ entry fee and have a draft strategy that is just designed to collect a league prize.

IF you go all reliever for example, you can win (or place) AN individual league with 47- points (15, 1, 15, 1, 15).....BUT if there are 360 teams you aren't going near the leaderboard with scores like (340, 10, 335, 15, 330). That would be just over 1000 and getting 250 in each category would be 1250 and generally you need to be shooting for 80% of the points in each category to get into the overall contention.

The tangental problem with this strategy is that it places even heavier weight on each of your hitting choices - miss there and you have derailed the entire point of the strategy - punting or not having to roster certain players for their contributions is SUPPOSED to let you be much better in the OTHER categories. It also means you HAVE to get at least one STUD closer, more likely two so that your ratio categories are under control.

Personally I think you would have a better chance by as you suggest punting only one category that is less invovled in the others - either SB or Saves.....BUT again a terribly low score - below 50 in one category will put you VERY FAR behind the field in total points.

[Captain Hook]

one more :

With the new Monday/Friday change rule, Is there one or two of you favorite Free websites that are wonderful for lineup changes and playing time that you use?

For instance, Say its Friday at 11: 45 AM and I need a quick reference to decide on playing my lefty Mashing Jonny Gomes in Coors Field for the weekend. What do some of the best use as a quick reference for NON-Weekly changes in lineup to maximize he value? I am very aware of Rotoworld blurbing about Gomes being in the lineup against a lefty ..But, I am looking more for an easy one stop resource .... Like I said, I am waiting until an hour before lineup changes and looking for the quickest , easiest resource in maximizing this New Rule this year..

Thanks

There is not - and really I don't think there should be doing something so dedicated to a small audience ESPECIALLY for free......Do you realize how much work that would be?????
[maybe with both NFBC and WCOFB having the two lineup periods there will be such a demand I can set up a 900 line for it......please press 1 if interested)

What you can do is look at the schedules/probable pitching matchups that you can find lots of places - frankly for a quick reference both ESPN (Tristan Cockroft's column) and CBSsportsline are pretty good.

Most of the really good players who micro-manage that much pretty much do it themselves but might check one of those sites (or one I may not be aware of)

[deansdaddy]

Perry or anyone experienced in NFBC,

During our NFBC mock, one participant switched gears and decided to go with an all RP plan. It was debated in the pick thread as if this could actually work. I know you dont agree with punting anything in a super competitive league. But could it work in a Sat league? Todd didnt advocate it, but he wasnt so quick to dismiss that it might actually work...he thought there might be chance.

I reiterate: Perry, I am aware of the fact that you do not advocate purposefully punting anything here...BUT

My question is two fold.

1.If it were to work, how would it have to go to work?

It was debated that you need two anchor SP's like Greinke and (add another Solid SP) ..

2. If this were to work, do you need two absolute top 10 pitchers to make it work, or could you go with a Cliff Lee and another 200 IP solid pitcher outside the top 10?.... Maybe a Lackey or worse a Scott baker type..

Do you feel a person could punt just one category, while loading up on other categories in a SAT league if it was done right......Any one category not so dependent on other categories like say... Sbs, Saves and to some extent AVG...

I'll give a quick answer here - yes you can punt categories and win a SAT league. Punting one category often happens in these league- but not always by choice. For example - you could miss out on top closers and be forced to leave the draft with less saves on paper than you want - this means you'll have to address it via FAAB - or possibly just try to win without any help in that category. You will also see this with SB's but to a lesser degree - because SB's don't come into the pool as readily as saves can in season. But yes - single leagues provide a much easier path to making punting viable than the Overall competition does.

So - while I want everyone to focus on drafting the most balanced team possible (which includes drafting starters) you will be free to adapt your strategy post draft if "punting" makes sense for your team.

I am toying with the idea of offering some kind of incentive for the rookie team whose squad would fare best in the Overall. We can take your stats and figure out how well your team would do against the 400+ teams in the Main Event and award the rookie who places highest. Maybe a free Platinum account next year here on MB or something like that. I really want to encourage owners to try and build teams that could compete in the overall - where punting even ONE category likely means you won't win.

[Captain Hook]

Some really good question guys -hopefully I gave you enough information. While I have to step out for a while, you can continue to post new questions or follow up questions and Ryan or I will get to them later in the day.


PVH

[rotodog]

One more Question. I may find it on the NFBC site, but while we are all here....

Is there a place with NFBC historical points totals or some discussion on strategy and category targets that you know of?

I am looking for NFBC specific stuff. I know Todd has Done NFBC primers in the past, but I am looking for past winners category totals and stategy type stuff in this format?

[rotodog]

I lied...Another question.

Being this is a unique rookie league, How would you compare this to a typical NFBC league?

I realize that anyone posting 1300 bucks must be pretty serious. I also realize that the luck of the draw in forming individual leagues might have something to with the quality of the participants. I realize that the Absolute best , experinced NFBC players are present and can be scattered throughout the leagues to water them down a bit..

But with 4 Very Experienced NFBC players in this Sat league with the rest of us and the assumption that the other owners are newer NFBC participants, but most likely experienced roto players, How would this leagye compare to a typical league in your opinions?

If you think the level would be way off, why? Would it affect the distribution of stats in a different way? In a main event NFBC league, would you expect the standings and stats to be tighter ? do you think this league would have wider potential swings in the standings or the individual stat categories?

Would you see this rookie league winner needing more points to win because the bottom teams potentially will have less points as rookies?

[deansdaddy]

Guys - I have to take care of a few things - but I'll be back on later today and tonight to answer more questions. Keep em coming!!

[bjoak]

Reading through, I realize I have a rules question. Is the NFBC letting you change your line-up until players start their games on both Monday and Friday as they have done on Monday's in the past? I remember advising against it as it will lead to all this micro-managing that we see here, but I'm not sure.

[Todd Zola]

Free movement for hitters on MON and FRI, FRI DH-rule still applies for pitchers.

[bjoak]

one more :

With the new Monday/Friday change rule, Is there one or two of you favorite Free websites that are wonderful for lineup changes and playing time that you use?

For instance, Say its Friday at 11: 45 AM and I need a quick reference to decide on playing my lefty Mashing Jonny Gomes in Coors Field for the weekend. What do some of the best use as a quick reference for NON-Weekly changes in lineup to maximize he value? I am very aware of Rotoworld blurbing about Gomes being in the lineup against a lefty ..But, I am looking more for an easy one stop resource .... Like I said, I am waiting until an hour before lineup changes and looking for the quickest , easiest resource in maximizing this New Rule this year..

Thanks

If I understand you correctly, you just want to see team line-ups about an hour before the game on Mondays and Fridays, correct? You can do that. Just go to the Yahoo baseball page and click on the game you are interested in. They will put up the official team line-ups about 45 mins. to an hour before game time. If you're early you just have to refresh it a bunch of times. Last summer when I was trying to figure whether Jake Fox would be playing for Aramis while he was out, I remember running home from the gym at top speed so I could put him in my line-up by four in case they ran him out there for Monday's game.

That said, you can beat yourself this way pretty easily. 1 out of 5 times, you'll get an 0fer game from Gomes and then two days off while a regular on your bench makes hey.

[bjoak]

I lied...Another question.

Being this is a unique rookie league, How would you compare this to a typical NFBC league?

I realize that anyone posting 1300 bucks must be pretty serious. I also realize that the luck of the draw in forming individual leagues might have something to with the quality of the participants. I realize that the Absolute best , experinced NFBC players are present and can be scattered throughout the leagues to water them down a bit..

But with 4 Very Experienced NFBC players in this Sat league with the rest of us and the assumption that the other owners are newer NFBC participants, but most likely experienced roto players, How would this leagye compare to a typical league in your opinions?

If you think the level would be way off, why? Would it affect the distribution of stats in a different way? In a main event NFBC league, would you expect the standings and stats to be tighter ? do you think this league would have wider potential swings in the standings or the individual stat categories?

Would you see this rookie league winner needing more points to win because the bottom teams potentially will have less points as rookies?

I don't think the league will be horribly different. It could be potentially a little easier due to rookie mistakes, but those things will hurt individuals more than overall point totals. You may think that for $1300 no one quits on his team. Couldn't be further from the truth. Looking at the team every day definitely reminds some people of how much they sank into it and then they quit looking at it altogether. On the other hand, in an instructional/interactive league like this one, I'd think everyone will be engaged all season and therefore there won't be so much disparity between top and bottom teams.

What mistakes do rookies make? In the past a big one has been drafting 5 or 6 prospects to hold onto because they assume nothing will be available via faab. You need active guys on your bench and ones that it won't kill you to part with when the need arrises. Again, looking at this thread, I wonder if people will make too much of the Friday rule. Basically, every week you are trying to find your best 14 to put out there and replace guys who are injured. There is not much room for deciding this guy or that and trying to stash someone who is good against lefties will lead to a marginal advantage at best while at the same time hurting you somewhere else (such as pitching depth).

[Captain Hook]

You can also get lineups about an hour ahead of time on mlb.com

There is one very good NOT free site that has a ton of information which has included each team's rotation for the upcoming week > The Heater Magazine (http://www.heatermagazine.com/login/) run by our friend John Burnson.

[viper]

relative the to Mon/Fri lineup changes, you can look at you choices and then see who their opposing SP will be and where they are playing. In reality, you are probably only looking at a handful of players - to bench Howard for 3 full days is not right even if he is going against a great lefty on Friday. The guys you are looking at are those players who are marginal and where you have options available. My guess is that you can go through this process in a half hour.

If the concern is a day-to-day player, I agree with whoever said Yaho is a good source. They seem to have today's lineups faster than anywhere else.

[bjoak]

This may be a topic for another discussion, but since there has been some talk about roster composition, which would you think is better to do, start with one of the better closers or go with an anchor starter? I've always been one of the guys who went dirt cheap on closers in my draft/auction and was able to speculate enough to compete in saves during the season. Even in my local leagues, owners have become very sharp and it's hard to get those closers in waiting past them. I would assume that this would be even more pronounced in an event like the NFBC which makes me think that taking a solid closer earlier may be a good plan to be competitive in saves.

Closers are important and saves are not easily or cheaply available via faab. So you need them. The best closers will go around round 5. You can take them or you can wait, but you need a good starting pitcher first. By the numbers, a lot of pitchers might have an ERA around 3 but only a few *project* that low. To win in the NFBC, you need a balance in each category as everyone has probably been telling you. That means you need an ERA around 3.75. If you start taking your pitchers in, say, round 7, your best guy will probably project out to 3.50. If your best one or two guys have a 3.50, there is no way you are hitting that mark.

[viper]

I lied...Another question.

Being this is a unique rookie league, How would you compare this to a typical NFBC league?

I realize that anyone posting 1300 bucks must be pretty serious. I also realize that the luck of the draw in forming individual leagues might have something to with the quality of the participants. I realize that the Absolute best , experinced NFBC players are present and can be scattered throughout the leagues to water them down a bit..

But with 4 Very Experienced NFBC players in this Sat league with the rest of us and the assumption that the other owners are newer NFBC participants, but most likely experienced roto players, How would this leagye compare to a typical league in your opinions?

If you think the level would be way off, why? Would it affect the distribution of stats in a different way? In a main event NFBC league, would you expect the standings and stats to be tighter ? do you think this league would have wider potential swings in the standings or the individual stat categories?

Would you see this rookie league winner needing more points to win because the bottom teams potentially will have less points as rookies?

This league will probably be like any other satellite league. The bottom teams will do well. The weekly chat session will help. The draft may be better than some other satellite leagues as, hopefully, everyone will be better prepared than sometimes happens.

"Very Experienced" is a relative term. I've played in three main events and 14 satellites. No wins, three seconds and a third is what i have to show for it. Not all the impressive. I have done better recently. I dropped the main events due to (a) when it is held - I work for a tax lawyer and that is a busy time (b) cost of about $2000 when all is included - NY is expensive, (c) the payout is much worse on a league basis as Perry said and (d) an honest assessment of the time I was willing to spend. I'm still looking for a title. Ryan has one already. I'm not sure about the others.

[rotodog]

great replies so far fellas...

One answer to expand on a little. it was addressed once up above. Although this was more a rules and procedure chat, I guess rookies make rules mistakes..SO,

What are the key mistakes that you see rookies typically making every year to make them non factors? How can one avoid them?

[deansdaddy]

This may be a topic for another discussion, but since there has been some talk about roster composition, which would you think is better to do, start with one of the better closers or go with an anchor starter? I've always been one of the guys who went dirt cheap on closers in my draft/auction and was able to speculate enough to compete in saves during the season. Even in my local leagues, owners have become very sharp and it's hard to get those closers in waiting past them. I would assume that this would be even more pronounced in an event like the NFBC which makes me think that taking a solid closer earlier may be a good plan to be competitive in saves.

Closers are important and saves are not easily or cheaply available via faab. So you need them. The best closers will go around round 5. You can take them or you can wait, but you need a good starting pitcher first. By the numbers, a lot of pitchers might have an ERA around 3 but only a few *project* that low. To win in the NFBC, you need a balance in each category as everyone has probably been telling you. That means you need an ERA around 3.75. If you start taking your pitchers in, say, round 7, your best guy will probably project out to 3.50. If your best one or two guys have a 3.50, there is no way you are hitting that mark.

To build on what Brian already said - it's tough to plan on buying saves off the wire - because the trend in the last few years has been that most of the best closers in waiting will be drafted in a 15 team 30 round draft - so yes you can/should speculate on saves late - but you really want to try to have at least one stable closer if not two by the reserve rounds.

I will add to Brian's take on when closers start to go a bit - the best closers WILL start to go in RD 5 - and if you want a TOP 5 closer be prepared to jump in around then. Then there is generally a little lull - and a much bigger run of the next group of closers begins anywhere from Rd 7 to 9 - depending on the league type. Then there is another run on the next rung of closers - most with flaws and question marks - that happens around Rd 12-15. Most teams will try to have two closers by the end of RD 15. The ones who don't will pick up the scraps while others chase SP's. In a Main Event always expect/plan scarce positions to go higher than you think.

[viper]

I have an aside here. I have pretty much completed the projected standing for the current slow draft in MB. I am using the BBHQ Feb 1 projections for the standings and the MB projections for my personal cheat sheet. I did this so I wasn't drafting of fthe same set of stats. There is a huge flaw if you look at your numbers and begin to feel proud of your pitching numbers.

In the main event NFBC last year, the median ERA was 4.108. In the six years of the NFBC, the lowest median score was 3.948. The worst ERA using the first 9 pitchers each team drafted was 3.954. I will be curious what the MB projections yield.

Bottom line is don't look at any projected standing and then pat yourself on the back. All you will do is strain your shoulder and hurt your back.

[deansdaddy]

I lied...Another question.

Being this is a unique rookie league, How would you compare this to a typical NFBC league?

I realize that anyone posting 1300 bucks must be pretty serious. I also realize that the luck of the draw in forming individual leagues might have something to with the quality of the participants. I realize that the Absolute best , experienced NFBC players are present and can be scattered throughout the leagues to water them down a bit..

But with 4 Very Experienced NFBC players in this Sat league with the rest of us and the assumption that the other owners are newer NFBC participants, but most likely experienced roto players, How would this league compare to a typical league in your opinions?

If you think the level would be way off, why? Would it affect the distribution of stats in a different way? In a main event NFBC league, would you expect the standings and stats to be tighter ? do you think this league would have wider potential swings in the standings or the individual stat categories?

Would you see this rookie league winner needing more points to win because the bottom teams potentially will have less points as rookies?

This league will probably be like any other satellite league. The bottom teams will do well. The weekly chat session will help. The draft may be better than some other satellite leagues as, hopefully, everyone will be better prepared than sometimes happens.

"Very Experienced" is a relative term. I've played in three main events and 14 satellites. No wins, three seconds and a third is what i have to show for it. Not all the impressive. I have done better recently. I dropped the main events due to (a) when it is held - I work for a tax lawyer and that is a busy time (b) cost of about $2000 when all is included - NY is expensive, (c) the payout is much worse on a league basis as Perry said and (d) an honest assessment of the time I was willing to spend. I'm still looking for a title. Ryan has one already. I'm not sure about the others.

I expect the level of play to be very high. And the draft to be tougher than the average SAT league. Our interaction will hopefully keep everybody involved - and I will do my best to keep owners actively managing their team. I think we'll have less "bad" teams than most leagues-but hey face it -someone's going to be at the bottom. But I actually think the league winner could need LESS points to win this league than more.

In my Main Event league last year the winner of the league and the third place team (ME) were both first time Main Event players. So experience helps - but it has less to do with being really successful than you think. I've seen guys who have played the NFBC Main every year have HORRIBLE years. I think the biggest thing that experience in this format brings is a better ability to see things down the road and use that foresight to anticipate things that rookies might not. Everybody knows what it's like to rush to the wire to grab the hottest pickup of the day/week. The experienced owner often has that same player on his roster two weeks earlier.

[bjoak]

I lied...Another question.

Being this is a unique rookie league, How would you compare this to a typical NFBC league?

I realize that anyone posting 1300 bucks must be pretty serious. I also realize that the luck of the draw in forming individual leagues might have something to with the quality of the participants. I realize that the Absolute best , experinced NFBC players are present and can be scattered throughout the leagues to water them down a bit..

But with 4 Very Experienced NFBC players in this Sat league with the rest of us and the assumption that the other owners are newer NFBC participants, but most likely experienced roto players, How would this leagye compare to a typical league in your opinions?

If you think the level would be way off, why? Would it affect the distribution of stats in a different way? In a main event NFBC league, would you expect the standings and stats to be tighter ? do you think this league would have wider potential swings in the standings or the individual stat categories?

Would you see this rookie league winner needing more points to win because the bottom teams potentially will have less points as rookies?

This league will probably be like any other satellite league. The bottom teams will do well. The weekly chat session will help. The draft may be better than some other satellite leagues as, hopefully, everyone will be better prepared than sometimes happens.

"Very Experienced" is a relative term. I've played in three main events and 14 satellites. No wins, three seconds and a third is what i have to show for it. Not all the impressive. I have done better recently. I dropped the main events due to (a) when it is held - I work for a tax lawyer and that is a busy time (b) cost of about $2000 when all is included - NY is expensive, (c) the payout is much worse on a league basis as Perry said and (d) an honest assessment of the time I was willing to spend. I'm still looking for a title. Ryan has one already. I'm not sure about the others.

I think Viper did a great job of presenting himself and his experience so I wanted to do the same.

My purpose is not to brag but to offer a clear portrait of myself so you know where I'm coming from. I'll do my best to be transparent here. I've written for Baseball Prospectus in their BP Idol contest. I did well but didn't win. I've written for a number of other sites, including mastersball. You can google me and read my stuff easily. I've done the main for five years and never had a finish worse than 104th place. I've also never won my league. It puts my lifetime rank at 30-something. Does any of this make me an expert? I don't know--probably not--but I think it helps to know where I'm coming from.

Something I've been thinking about a lot lately is who you take advice from and how you value it. I'm sure that if someone has a median finish of 282 in the main event, they can tell you things from their experience, but they are probably not the best person to tell you what the NFBC winners do that make them better. On the other hand, they might be able to tell you what they've learned from mistakes they've made. If it's a writer, have you read him, do you respect his stuff, and how has he done in the main event? I think it will help when we can get into the league and you can view past records of all players but for now one of the best things you can do is to decide how you value the different types of advice that fall on your doorstep here.

[AllstonRockCity]

This was touched upon before, but I'd like to delve a littler deeper here; bench construction.

As soon as I read the rules for the 1st time, the bench was one of the biggest things that stood out to me. 7 spots, and no DL spots. My first instinct was that I wanted either 3 Hitters and 4 Pitchers, or the opposite.

For the hitters: For arguments sake, lets assume your U is an OF. You have 6 OFs on your roster. I don't want to burn a bench spot on a 3rd string C. So, my thought is, 1 MI, 1 CI and 1 more OF. The MI should be the opposite of my starting MI or have dual eligibility, ditto for my reserve CI. What position would the 'extra' hitter be if I were to choose to go with 4 hitters? With all of my starting hitters covered on my bench, why would I carry the 'extra' hitter?

For the pitchers: Let's assume my 6 required starters are all active. That's 3 spots for guys that will either be 1. Closers or 2. relievers with great ratios and possible save chances. It would seem appropriate to have at least 1 starter and 1 quality reliever on my bench with the 3rd spot being either of the aforementioned type of player. Do I really need to have 8 or 9 Starters on my roster? If I only have 2 closers, would I really need more than 2 middle relievers on my roster?

The players I actually roster will have some impact on these decisions for sure, but from a strictly theoretical point of view, what do you guys think?

[viper]

after the draft, the most likely configurations will be 4-3 or 3-4. Come June when three players are on the DL and your bench is reduced to just four spots, things will be a bit more interesting.

I'll probably start 3 hitters and 4 pitchers. However there will be no job security whatsoever.

[deansdaddy]

First off - I don't consider myself an "expert". I am classified as a veteran by virtue of playing in the Main Event last year, my second year playing NFBC leagues. That and I came up with the idea to do this league.

I played two SAT leagues in 2008 - and yes I won one and placed third in the other (the winner of that league was defending Main Event champ Robert Jurney). So that should be proof enough that ANY of you first time drafters can win with the same approach that has given you success in other leagues. In 2009 I played in two more SAT leagues, the Main Event and the first magazine league. I finished 3rd in my Main Event league and 125th overall. I finished 3rd and 9th in my two SAT's and 2nd in the magazine league (which took place in late Dec). So last year I couldn't quite scale the mountain in three of my four leagues.

I definitely can share my experiences and how I'm still learning from my mistakes. The one thing I do have as a fantasy player is confidence. I'm not passive either as an owner - if I'm in last - I will battle til the bitter end. At one point last year, my Main Event team had sunk to 8th in the standings and into the low 200's in the overall.

But I agree with Brian - you have to take whatever advice and information you get and filter it through your own system of judgements. In the end the decisions you make have to be your own.

[bjoak]

This was touched upon before, but I'd like to delve a littler deeper here; bench construction.

As soon as I read the rules for the 1st time, the bench was one of the biggest things that stood out to me. 7 spots, and no DL spots. My first instinct was that I wanted either 3 Hitters and 4 Pitchers, or the opposite.

For the hitters: For arguments sake, lets assume your U is an OF. You have 6 OFs on your roster. I don't want to burn a bench spot on a 3rd string C. So, my thought is, 1 MI, 1 CI and 1 more OF. The MI should be the opposite of my starting MI or have dual eligibility, ditto for my reserve CI. What position would the 'extra' hitter be if I were to choose to go with 4 hitters? With all of my starting hitters covered on my bench, why would I carry the 'extra' hitter?

For the pitchers: Let's assume my 6 required starters are all active. That's 3 spots for guys that will either be 1. Closers or 2. relievers with great ratios and possible save chances. It would seem appropriate to have at least 1 starter and 1 quality reliever on my bench with the 3rd spot being either of the aforementioned type of player. Do I really need to have 8 or 9 Starters on my roster? If I only have 2 closers, would I really need more than 2 middle relievers on my roster?

The players I actually roster will have some impact on these decisions for sure, but from a strictly theoretical point of view, what do you guys think?

This relates to what I said about supply and demand and also about rookie mistakes to a degree. Ideally I go into the bench rounds saying I want a MI, a CI, and a OF. Along with 4 SP's or 3 SP's and a closer-in-waiting.

First, I'm not going to take any old closer-in-waiting just to have one. Normally they never get the job so I only take one if I feel confident he will pick up saves in short order. Last year I took Ziegler and he ended up collecting saves to start the year (and my team won the saves cat).

If there are no good CIW's, I go with 4 SP's. Never a MR. Why? To win in the NFBC, you need K's and wins consistent with what 6 and 1/2 SP's will give you and saves consistent with what 2 and 1/2 closers will give you. There is no room for MI's in that equation.

However, let me stress again that you pick your bench based on who is available. If there is a great SP and nothing but bottom-of-the-barrel middle infielders, don't draft the MI just to have one! Do you really need a guy rostered that bad just in case your guy goes down between a Monday and a Thursday? So that you could get three days of crappy stats from the worst guy on your roster? Put the best players you can on your bench. Believe me you will end up reconstructing it in just about every faab period anyway.

[viper]

Put the best players you can on your bench. Believe me you will end up reconstructing it in just about every faab period anyway.

The only time your bench stays the same is when you lose all your FAAB bids. OK, it is a bit of an exaggeration but not by much.

[deansdaddy]

This thread will be dedicated to preparing for your draft. We will be drafting this league on the NFBC's new draft software. As soon as it is made available we all will be taking a look at it for the first time. So the good news for new players is that we veterans don't know anything more about it than you do. Online drafts are very different than the live drafts that are used for the Main Event. We'll focus on preparing you to draft your team online first. Then once we get past our draft, we can continue here to talk about drafting live in the big room. So if you want to start talking about anything related to drafting and putting together your roster - this is the place to do it.

[deansdaddy]

Hello all - I'll be online for awhile - so if anyone has any questions about rules - post them here.

It seems like people are ready to start talking about the draft and roster construction. I've opened a thread so you can start doing that now.

I want you all to feel free to start any threads you want to in the Forum - from time to time I'll clean things up - deleting some stuff and consolidating others.

Please let me know if you have an idea for a thread that you'd like to see. We will be building this Forum together and I welcome any and all suggestions that you all might have.

RC

[deansdaddy]

Good stuff today guys. Thanks Perry for stopping by and answering our questions.

Brian and Mike thanks for helping out in the PM portion. I expect our 4th veteran, Ken Magner to stop by an introduce himself to the group over the weekend.

We are going lock this thread up. Any further Rules questions on this Topic can be posed in the Rules Thread.

[Jim F]

I have a few:

1. Position Scarcity. Fact or Myth?

I know MB's thoughts on it after reading that great poll question that turned into a headache for me at the end of the thread. I still have a tough time thinking that having 50 bags from a C is no different than 50 from an OF. When you leave the draft before a game is played I understand they are worth the same but when I am needing more bags and searching the wire I can't help but think I would have an easier time finding someone to fill in for an OF that isn't producing than a C that is closer to league averages.

2. Draft Prep itself - Do you VETS start your draft prep by team so you can better understand each player and their possible role within the team or is it position by position? Is it something entirely different that I never thought to do?

3. I have heard from a couple of people that they like to have guys in mind in the back half of the draft and build 'up'. Do any VETS do that? Does going into a draft with that mindset limit the the owners potential of having a bad draft if things don't break the right way?

4. When is a reach a good thing? Or is it ever? I didn't want to reach for a 2nd Catcher in an earlier Sat league as I thought that there was much better talent left out there and next thing I know, I have punch and judy as my second and third C's.

Thanks,
Jim

[Jim F]

A couple more, I could fill a few pages if you don't lock me out soon:

--Last year in the Sat I did to get my feet wet, I drafted Soria/Valverde 6th and 7th rounds. Back luck or was I an idiot?

--Finish this sentence (From Princess Bride) in terms of Draft Prep:

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: _______________________"

Thanks,

Jim

[viper]

my sons license plate is 2BLAVE

A quick thought on scarcity as my coffee perks. If you accept the MB evaluation concepts of replacement players , then there is no suck thing as scarcity in an NFBC style league excluding the catchers position. The dollar value of the first several undrafted players for MI, CO & OF the same. That is how I view scarcity. Ohter may wish to view it differently.

Here is the big caveat. When you tier the draft worthy players players [the top 180 non-catchers] by position, there are extremely obvious gaps. Some may refer to this as scarcity. I prefer to think of it as an unbalanced distribution. People don't like gaps.

For catchers, there is a scarcity of positive valued players. I ran CVRC to get dollar values assuming all players were OFs. Then I ran it with 30 catchers and 180 OFs. The non-catchers mostly had the same calculated dollar value plus/minus $1. The catchers were $6 or $7 dollars different. Victor Martinez would be a $17 player if he only played 1B but as a catcher he is a $24 player. The difference is what i call scarcity.

[rotodog]

Got one...

After hearing a few people question Choices someone made in the mock, especially at the end or Bench, here is my question.

I realize we only have 7 bench spots and each one is valuable. And reality is that those spots will be turned over thru FAAB all season. Also we should worry about our team construction first...But

Is it ever advantageous to draft a player on your bench if there is any real upside or real chance he is productive to simply keep him from being productive on someone elses roster...

Say for instance You grabbed Russ Branyan in the late rounds as a bench/ possible CI ...Rd 27 is staring at you and Troy Glaus is still being overlooked.....As a 3b/1b he has some upside and could be roster worthy , but isnt the most pressing need for your bench assuming you are already well rounded... Any reason to take someone in this situation or Just make your best team and screw who takes what and where this late?

[rotodog]

Aside of simply going to an NFBC message board and weeding thru all the trash talk to find some nuggets of info, could you point a newer NFBC owner to any resource on the web that discusses

: NFBC Category targets
: NFBC roster construction strategy
: NFBC drafting techniques
: NFBC trash talking techniques

OK, The last one is a joke...But you get the idea.

I also realize that Good competitive players are that way for a reason..They are good and usually better informed than there counterparts and if one has some specific little gems , they may not want to disclose them. Its the nature of being a winner.....

But, C'mon........Help a Brother out!!!

[rotodog]

I figure better to populate this thread so it isnt dead. Here is another one. Draft position.

Everyone has there own ideas about draft slotting..I wont get into that here, but I would like some experienced NFBC style straight drafters to discuss the plan from each spot in the order..No, not 1-15 individually.

Early pick say 1-3
Middle of the order
late pick 14,15 ish..

Discuss What I am looking for and what to expect each round in these specific areas and how to go about your selection.

At the back end 15/16 turn or the 1 slot turn , do you look for a player that slipped and then have to reach a bit for the next player because its not making it back to you?

Do you push the action because you have two back to back picks or very close picks? Do you try to start the runs to avoid being caught up in them with so many picks before it gets back to you as an Offense and a defense?

In the middle, is it easier to take exactly what the draft gives you and many times a player slips 5-10 spots and gets to you? Is it Much easier to aviod runs in the middle? How much?

In Poker and Blackjack there is a basic strategy that is mathematically based on how to properly play the game to give you the best cahnce of winning. Winning consistently depends on playing it properly...HOW Important is it in High stakes NFBC style drafting to play it properly from different slots?

A: In very competitive leagues like this it is VERY important to know your slot and play it right?
B: Be aware of it, but not a big deal
c: Who cares how to play your draft slot properly! Just take whatever you want is the best available!

Or D. Important here, but not a bid deal in less competitive leagues

[Sack]

First shot at the Masterball site, so take it easy on me guys. I'd like to start by introducing my NFBC specific goals for the upcoming season for the Main Event. Simply stated, these are the TARGETS I use "in draft" in order to build a balanced squad.

You want to strive to be in the upper third of each of the ten categories. The teams that struggle have weakness in two or more cats in which they receive 5 points or less. I'm speaking from a league standpoint. A weak CAT has an even more damaging effect in an Overall chase. Remember, you don't have to get 15 points in every category. Finally, winning a CAT by one stolen base or 25 equals the same in the standings. Don't look to dominate, simply balance.

Here are my target goals for 2010:


BA: .2817 ERA: 3.827
R: 1116 W: 99
HR: 284 WHIP: 1.284
RBI: 1084 K: 1286
SB: 181 (up about 15 from past yrs) SV: 88


Now, to take this further remember that you have 14 Offenisive slots and 9 pitching slots. I take the numbers above to create what I need from each of those slots. For offense, I treat both Catcher spots as one position. So when I divide into the numbers above, I do so by the number 13. This allows me to WAIT in draft on the catching position. For me, two catching slots equal one set of stats. Hope this helps.

[rotodog]

Sackmeister,

Thanks for the numbers and insights.....very Helpful. How many NFBC events have you done?

[Sack]

Rotodog:

I've been part of the NFBC family since day #1. I've been a fan of WISEGUY baseball writer Gene McCaffery. Gene has allowed me to contribute a few articles over the years as well.

The guy holding that big 200K check, Lindy Hinkelman, and I have been at his endeavor as friends for many many years. I hope to be in his league, someday.

[deansdaddy]

Hey Ken - glad to have you on the boards.

[Sack]

[quote="rotodog"] I figure better to populate this thread so it isnt dead. Here is another one. Draft position.

I'm going in this direction this season:

1-5 There are 4 players I would love to start a draft with this year from the logical five; Pujols, Hanley, Arod, Utley, and Braun. All my settings will start 1-5. To me, there is an edge to being on the front and subsequent early turn in most every season. You simply pick earlier than your leaguemates.

11-15 I see a pocket of talent on the turns beyond the early rounds. I want to keep my selections closer together. Therefore, I'll take the late turn as my middle KDS choice.

10-9-8-7-6 in that order, rounds out my KDS. I don't like the middle. It becomes to easy to play passive here. I want to be aggressive and I use the ADP reports as my guide.



At the back end 15/16 turn or the 1 slot turn , do you look for a player that slipped and then have to reach a bit for the next player because its not making it back to you?

**It is never a reach if you have an overall plan in constructing a team. With picks 15-16 you know heading into the draft that your 3rd and 4th round picks will be #'s 45 & 46. If a player has an ADP between 17 - 44 and you really want him - go get him.

Do you push the action because you have two back to back picks or very close picks? Do you try to start the runs to avoid being caught up in them with so many picks before it gets back to you as an Offense and a defense?

**You take what is best for your team. Don't try to think for the other guy. You'll get a feel in draft what positions are going fast and where there will be bargains. Adjust, but focus on building your own team.

In the middle, is it easier to take exactly what the draft gives you and many times a player slips 5-10 spots and gets to you? Is it Much easier to aviod runs in the middle? How much?

**I like to call these passive draft spots. It is easy to get caught up in allowing the draft to unfold easily. However, you can get lulled to sleep from a middle spot. I like drafting with an edge. The longer I'll have to wait after my back to back picks keeps me aggresive and more focused.

In Poker and Blackjack there is a basic strategy that is mathematically based on how to properly play the game to give you the best cahnce of winning. Winning consistently depends on playing it properly...HOW Important is it in High stakes NFBC style drafting to play it

properly from different slots?

A: In very competitive leagues like this it is VERY important to know your slot and play it right?


Use the ADP reports. When you get your draft slot, you should try to map out plans A-B-C of "what-ifs". Then you'll get in draft and everything will blow up. However, if you've played out the scenerio a few times and KNOW the player pool. You'll be fine, you'll be hooked, and you will get better each and every time.

[mbendar]

In my local leagues, I have tried to leave the draft with a balanced team, but really haven't had a "game plan", just tried to make the best pick at each round, factoring in position scarcity (always try my best to put together a strong infield - maybe that's my "game plan").

So my questions for NFBC are:

When game plans are mentioned, what exactly does that mean? - a set strategy of taking a certain position/player in exact rounds, other things?

Do you play the draft out to a certain round to establish the foundation of your team that you want? - If so, to what round?

If what I mentioned above is a strategy, how do you adapt if the draft isn't going the way to make the strategy a success?

Thanks,
Mark

[deansdaddy]

Hey guys - an update on the ADP list from Greg Ambrosius:

"Yes, no problem at all. If someone wants one, just have them email Geoff at gstein@fanball.com. "

So email Geoff and tell him you are playing in the Rookie Invitational SAT and he'll send the list to you. Once everyone has them we can talk about those as well if you like.

[bjoak]

I have a few:

1. Position Scarcity. Fact or Myth?

I know MB's thoughts on it after reading that great poll question that turned into a headache for me at the end of the thread. I still have a tough time thinking that having 50 bags from a C is no different than 50 from an OF. When you leave the draft before a game is played I understand they are worth the same but when I am needing more bags and searching the wire I can't help but think I would have an easier time finding someone to fill in for an OF that isn't producing than a C that is closer to league averages.

2. Draft Prep itself - Do you VETS start your draft prep by team so you can better understand each player and their possible role within the team or is it position by position? Is it something entirely different that I never thought to do?

3. I have heard from a couple of people that they like to have guys in mind in the back half of the draft and build 'up'. Do any VETS do that? Does going into a draft with that mindset limit the the owners potential of having a bad draft if things don't break the right way?

4. When is a reach a good thing? Or is it ever? I didn't want to reach for a 2nd Catcher in an earlier Sat league as I thought that there was much better talent left out there and next thing I know, I have punch and judy as my second and third C's.

Thanks,
Jim

Good questions and right up my ally. In fact, with regards to #3, I wrote an article for mastersball called Bottom-Up Drafting. If you're a platinum member, go check that out. I assume it's still up. The idea behind it is simple. If you draft Albert Pujols in round 1 and your catcher in round 23, they are going to negate each other. If Albert gets 120 RBI's and your catcher gets 50, that averages to 85, just about what you need from your average player to win. Do the same with your 2nd and 22nd pick and so on. By the 11th or 12th round, you are averaging 70 RBI's, and your team is falling short of what you need.

I'm not saying not to draft your catchers late but you need to have a plan so that you don't end up shooting yourself in the foot and losing all the value you got from your top guys. Always taking the best guy will give you the best team by round 10, but you are setting yourself up for failure by round 23.

Position scarcity is related. SB's are worth the same wherever you get them. That said, it is like an MLB team getting 50 homers from its catcher. Those come in addition to what you can put in your outfield. Again, you have to consider the round you get the stats in. Let's look at shortstop. If we look at an entire draft, on average the shortstops will be less valuable than the outfielders. In the 13th round the OF will be better. The same is true in the 23rd round. So it shouldn't matter when you take him. EXCEPT, when you take Hanley Ramirez he is just about as valuable if not more than the OFers in round 1. That is worth a lot because if you take your SS later you are going to lose more value.

I think putting a specific value on a guy because of the position he plays can be a dangerous over-estimation of his value, but when a guy at a premium position sees his value getting close to the values of other guys in the same round, it is time to take him.

With regards to #2, yes, I do it by team, mostly because I want to account for park factors which will be the same or similar for guys from the same team. If you're working in excel, you can always re-sort by position later.

For #4, it can definitely be a good thing. Last year I really wanted Jayson Werth. I thought he had second or third round value but he was going maybe in the seventh or eighth. If I'm right and I reach for him in the 6th, I might piss everyone at the draft off, but I'm still getting three rounds of value out of him. Todd Zola was at that draft and made a snarky remark about that pick, something along the lines of how he didn't know why I was so happy about *that* guy. You can see that he is a second or third round pick this year. Yes, I was happy, Todd. Yes, I was.

I'm not sure I understand your specific example, but you might also have to reach when you are getting to the last valuable guy at a position. If Player X is going in the twelfth and he is the last good second baseman, you might want to reach for him unless you are okay with taking that position at the back of the draft. It is another good reason to plan for the endgame ahead of time.

[viper]

I have some things to say but I am doing the mock draft tonight and I am not really prepared. My time needs to be there. I will be reading however - and trying to avoid taking already-selected players in the slow mock draft.

[Jim F]

Good questions and right up my ally. In fact, with regards to #3, I wrote an article for mastersball called Bottom-Up Drafting. If you're a platinum member, go check that out. I assume it's still up. The idea behind it is simple. If you draft Albert Pujols in round 1 and your catcher in round 23, they are going to negate each other. If Albert gets 120 RBI's and your catcher gets 50, that averages to 85, just about what you need from your average player to win. Do the same with your 2nd and 22nd pick and so on. By the 11th or 12th round, you are averaging 70 RBI's, and your team is falling short of what you need.

Looks like the link to the article is dead but I think I have been guilty of this before. Thanks for the responses, learned something from each one.

[Todd Zola]

I'll see if we can get it back up -- we changed the location of things after the merger and are in process of re-posting some of the archives, if material one year old can be considered archives.

[deansdaddy]

I have a few:

2. Draft Prep itself - Do you VETS start your draft prep by team so you can better understand each player and their possible role within the team or is it position by position? Is it something entirely different that I never thought to do?

3. I have heard from a couple of people that they like to have guys in mind in the back half of the draft and build 'up'. Do any VETS do that? Does going into a draft with that mindset limit the the owners potential of having a bad draft if things don't break the right way?

Thanks,
Jim

2. Draft prep for me begins in December when I basically just start getting myself re-acquainted with the player pool. I try to get up to speed with the player movement. I play in the Mastersball 20 team Dynasty league and we have a Minor League draft early on. This forces me to my sources of Prospects and I basically take a long look at MLB team's minor league systems. Then I'll start looking at individual 40 man rosters and start making general notes for my own depth charts. In the NFBC you can make the case that playing time is one of the most important factors to consider.
It will effect how you value players and how you view their early projections.

3. I can't say that I have ever focused on doing this. I think as you gain more experience at straight drafting you start to automatically take note of the players who will be available in the bottom half of the draft. I did the slow draft with you in January Jim and can honestly say that I wasn't really thinking about who I was going to pick late going in. I had a couple plans of attack in mind going in and after my early picks pointed toward a direction - I tried to stick with it. I had a tiered cheat sheet I used to help me decide on what positions to attack as the draft progressed, but I didn't target specific late round guys from the outset.

For me - as the early season drafts wind down - I start to think more about the players I like late in drafts. I might make some notes on players to target but I don't get too attached to anyone. Unlike an auction where you have more control of acquiring these types of players the straight draft makes it a lot harder to count on getting specific players in any given round. Now, once you get your draft slot you can try to do mock drafts or use the ADP to identify pockets of players who might fall into certain rounds. But you have to be careful to not rely on these results for your actual draft. NFBC drafts vary greatly from draft to draft. This is magnified in early Slow Drafts and Satellites. The Main Event tightens things up a bit due to the Overall component where everyone is trying to compete in all 10 categories. The SAT's have lots of different approaches and strategies employed. Team's punt categories and are more likely to make multiple "reaches" on young players.

In the NFBC you will often see certain groups of players shoot up ADP lists every year. In 2008 I remember Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria and Johnny Cueto . Last year Matt Kemp, Matt Wieters and Chris Davis were some of the poster boys. This year it looks like Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Tommy Hanson and Brett Anderson are some of the players that I see owners moving up to pick. You have to form strong opinions on the players you like and don't like because your fellow drafters are doing the same. You need to become familiar with the skills they bring to the game. You can use color coded tiers to help you organize it and ADP's to help get a picture of how your draft might go. Being prepared does increase the potential that you can adapt as the draft progresses and adjust your plan even when players you hoped might fall to you come off the board.

[deansdaddy]

A couple more, I could fill a few pages if you don't lock me out soon:

--Last year in the Sat I did to get my feet wet, I drafted Soria/Valverde 6th and 7th rounds. Back luck or was I an idiot?

Jim

Look don't beat yourself up - you can grab to closers early and be successful. But as we know closers are the most volatile commodities in fantasy. If you are going to invest two early picks on them and things go bad it will have a greater impact than the guy whose 15th rd closer spits the bit. Soria I would chalk up to bad luck but for me Valverde wasn't quite in the same class as the elite closers last year. For me he was near the Top of the next tier of closers. So for me, if I have already grabbed an "Elite" closer - I will usually try to get another one from the next group but I won't likely spend another high pick on getting a guy from the top of that tier.

For example here were my rankings of closers heading into last year's Main Event draft. This was using a loose ADP placement of where I expected these players to be chosen:
Tier 1
Jonathan Papelbon (2/5th)
Francisco Rodriguez (4/5th)
Joe Nathan (3/5th)
Brad Lidge (7/6th)
Mariano Rivera (1,5th)
Joakim Soria (6/6th)
Tier 2 (R7-R12)
Brian Fuentes (11/10th)
Jon Broxton (5/6th)
Jose Valverde (8/7th)
Bobby Jenks (14/11th)
Carlos Marmol (10/9th)
B.J. Ryan (13/11th)
Kerry Wood (9/8th)
Matt Capps (12/11th)
F Cordero (21/13th)
Brian Wilson (16/12th)
Heath Bell (15/12th)
Chad Qualls (17/12th)
Mike Gonzalez (19/12th)
Tier 3 (R12-R16)
Trevor Hoffman (22/15th)
Frank Francisco (20/13th)
Matt Lindstrom (23/15th)
Joel Hanrahan (18/12th)
Joey Devine (28/17th)
Huston Street (24/15th)
Brandon Lyon (25/16th)
George Sherrill (27/17th)

Jasom Motte was the 26th RP chosen.

Just looking at this list you can see that you in fact chose Soria and Valverde at appropriate points. But supposed you don't grab Valverde and instead looked down that Tier 2 group and targeted one of the F Cordero/Heath Bell/B Wilson/Qualls grouping. They all went in the 12th and 13th rd of my Main Event draft. So you could have gotten better production 5/6 rounds later by waiting to grab that second closer. Of course you might miss out on these guys if/when you wait in a 15 team draft and then you have to scramble. But you weren't an idiot - it just didn't work last year.

UPDATE: - I've added the order in which they were chosen and the round they were picked. As you can see - the ADP data did hold pretty true to form - guys did go in the range of rounds I expected. You may be asking who did I choose? I took Papelbon in the 5th and was going to wait - but saw Brian Fuentes on the board in the 10th and grabbed him. Guys waited a lot longer than I thought they might to take their first closer - in this draft.

[viper]

I'll comment on the question later but for now, I think you will see that Broxton has replaced Lidge as a top tier closer. Lidge may have more going-in job security but he scares the be-jeebers out of me. The top tier closers need to be sure things and Lidge is anything but. If you think Broxton is 2nd tier, I'm fine with that but don't count on getting him.

[deansdaddy]

Sorry Mike - I wasn't clear - those were my rankings heading into the Main Event LAST YEAR.

[viper]

Today is a "Total Pitching" day for my preparation. My guess is that it will extend through about Wednesday. I never spend enough time on pitching and I committed to do something different this year.

Relative to roster construction, you establish the baseline for your staff in the first ten rounds. I suspect that the fifty or so pitchers taken in those ten rounds are essentially the same in every draft. I bet at least 45 of them are the same. Teams will have three or four pitchers rostered depending how how extreme you follow the "Bully hitting, Manage pitching" philosophy. For the most part I am a 7-3 guy. Certainly I am 7-3 if a select at the 11-15 slots. From the front of the draft, I will almost always be 7-4 after I select in round 11. The numbers say that 50 pitchers will go in the first ten rounds. This means some teams will have three and others four. Let's look at a three man staff.

The Papelbon Plan suggests you can get a top tier closer in rounds 5 or 6. It is unlikely you would go RP in round 5 and then SP in round 6. You are looking at Round 5 closer, followed by a round 7 SP and another SP later in the first ten rounds. By round seven the top tier SPs are gone and so are the best of tier two. I'm not sure how many tier one and tier two SPs there are but let's assume 30. By going with rounds 7 & 9 for SPs, you get a middle tier two guy and a late tier two guy. The alternatives include taking that tier one or high tier two SP in round 5/6. This mean in rounds 7-10 you will take that second SP and a tier two closer.

There are obviously other options but the typical number of pitchers taken in the first ten rounds indicate this one closer, two SP mix is the most common.

Everyone has different skills. Some need that stud pitcher and other are comfortable they can be highly competitive without that stud. We all choose different poisons. Actually you eventual draft slot may dictate your decision.

[NickPass]

Hi Guys,

This is my first go round in NFBC. Ryan and I played in a league together for 10 years. It was a 5x5 format (using .OBP instead of BA).

The most significant changes for me will be no trading and using an FAAB for the first time. Ryan has donned me with the nickname "Trader Nick". Whether it's baseball or football, I love to trade. Not being able to do that will be a real change. However, I love the concept of FAAB. I work long hours, so I don't have the luxury of scouring the wire for FA's on a first come, first serve basis. The FAAB element adds a great strategic element.

My draft preparation begins two weeks of the draft. When I get home from work, I have a two year old daughter who demands the rest of my time. When she goes to sleep, I get maybe an hour to hang with my wife before passing out. Let's just say that I've learned to be efficient with my time when it comes to Fantasy Sports

In terms of Roster Construction, I try to go for balance. However, I'm also a big believer in taking the best available, even if it means filling a need later. Traditionally, I've been a sucker for power and tend to make SB's secondary (I miraculously won my 2007 league despite finishing dead last in SB's- helped to win 7 of 10 categories!!)

With the group of guys that Ryan has put together, I am REALLY going to have to be prepared for the draft!!

[viper]

Nick, just remember to have fun.

I'm turning 64 in April and I learned a long time ago to smell the roses. Given that everyone will get several marginal players in the last few rounds and that, except for catching, those players should be from each of the three other positions [corners, middles & OF], you can be competitive with something close to best available. Realize that people tend to draft those middle infielders a bit faster than other spot. Patience is a key.

No trading just means you have to draft a more balanced roster. FAAB means you can just watch things during the week and then work out your FAAB on Saturday and Sunday. During the week, I golf a lot and then watch baseball games at night.

[NickPass]

Great advice Mike. Fantasy Baseball has always been a lot of fun for me and I'm looking forward to this new format.

[August West]

11-15 I see a pocket of talent on the turns beyond the early rounds. I want to keep my selections closer together. Therefore, I'll take the late turn as my middle KDS choice.

Sack - Is 11 - 15 the exact order of your middle KDS choice? If so, why 11, 12 first instead of 15, 16?

Thanks

[viper]

PRERANKING YOUR LISTS IS CRITICAL.

You need to get your lists on the draft site ahead of time. I would suggest 3-4 days ahead of time. The problem is the Fanball site is not operational yet. I don't know how hard it will be to set up lists there. I do know that it takes a lot of time on MDC - I mean several hours. You have to adjust their default lists and they are not all that good.

How many players need to be ranked? We draft 450 players. We start 210 position players and another 135 pitchers. If you prerank 75 more pitchers and 75 more hitters you will have more than enough. This means you need to have 285 hitters and 210 pitchers. You can surely get by with a few less but if you actually prerank 450 players, what's another 45 among friends. There will be number of selected players you do not have preranked.

HAVE REFRESHMENTS READY FOR THE DRAFT

In the past, these online drafts take over four hours. You get 90 seconds a pick and people take time to select. Others may have been in quicker online NFBC drafts but mine haven't. And I am generally a quick selector. In order to keep up selections, have your favorite drafting beverage close by and have ample snack food too. You don't want to rush to the kitchen during the draft.

MOCK DRAFTS

If you haven't done a mock draft, sign up for one quickly. If Fanball isn't available by Wednesday for mocks, then do one on MDC. It's amazing how much they help. Choose a 45 or 60 seconds version, It goes fast and if you can keep up at 60 seconds, you have a good chance to handle the 90 second actual draft. Do several of them until you feel comfortable with the interface and the speed. learning the Fanball interface will be important. Hopefully it will be up soon. For now, practice from the 3, 8 and 13 slots. This will give you a feel of drafting from all three areas of the order. Once we know our order, then use that position for your mocks. The mocks give you a projected standings. They are nice but please don't get depressed or a swelled head. It's kind of like the exhibition season. It doesn't really mean anything. Like exhibition games, mock draft are just to prepare you for the real thing.

[Sack]

Sack - Is 11 - 15 the exact order of your middle KDS choice? If so, why 11, 12 first instead of 15, 16?

Tom B: I apologize for not catching this sooner, I'm still new to the Mastersball site.


I am setting my KDS ( as of today ) as 1-2-3-4-5-11-12-13-14-15 etc....


I see value on the turns that extend out beyond the first two rounds. You'll be surprised that alot of people don't actually look beyond the first two rounds in making a KDS selection. I normally dont mess at all with the KDS, let the chips fall where they may and I believe the lower number you receive the better you've done. However, this year that middle pocket isn't a place I wish to select. I want my picks closer together if I miss out on a top 5 slot. Going in order from 11 up to 15 still gives me a "lower" seeded selection in each odd numbered rounds and I won't have to wait too long before I'm on the clock again. In most instances, I think this will leave me a selection during the even numbered rounds.


Don't get to caught up in KDS. It is fun to play with this as you lead up to finding your draft selection, but keeping it simple from 1-15 isn't a bad way to go.


I'll try to keep up on the boards, but if I miss a question, just drop me a note at sackofpotatoes18 at aol and I'll try to respond.

[Fast Money]

HI Ryan,

Which ADP report do fell is the most reliable? They're are many out there. Which do rely on?

[deansdaddy]

Welcome to the boards Fast Money,

Thanks for coming over to join in- if you mean for the NFBC- I think it was Viper posted the best answer on a different thread but I'll paraphrase "The best ADP for the NFBC comes out the day after the Main Event...of course too late to help us.

I am assuming you are playing in an NFBC league for the first time - so the best one available right now will be the ADP from the 13 slow drafts that the NFBC sent out to players. The fact that they are 45 round drafts - they give you way more names than you will need for a 30 RD draft. They are the most reliable ones for any NFBC draft simply because these are the early results from real league drafts. Mock Draft results can't compare to them in this respect.

The next best list we unfortunately can't see yet. We don't yet know how players will be ranked in the NFBC's new draft room. I know I am waiting til I can get my hands on those lists so I can study them a bit - and adjust them. Anyone who's drafted online knows that knowing where to find the players in the system can help. Actually for new players it may be a little break that everyone has to learn a new draft software at the same time.

But back to the ADP...look I'll be honest I'm not sure how reliable ANY ADP report really is for drafting purposes. After the first 3-4 rds, the ADP's become less and less reliable and start to show an ever increasing "area" that a player may be drafted in. So after the first few rounds - they can only inform our "plan" of attack. You can use them prior to drafting to try and figure out where pockets of talent lay and where some of you sleepers may by hiding.

[viper]

from an ADP perspective, make sure the list is from leagues of the same type you are playing. The ADP for a NFBC style league will be a lot different than for an ESPN league. The NFBC ADP probably won't work for an Al-only or NL-only league. The order by position may be close but the times that pitchers & hitters are taken will differ. Also, the bottom half of the draft could be real different.

For NFBC style leagues, the slow draft ADP are easily the best. The MDC results are nice to look at but they get extremely skewed by autopicks. I would not even suggest our recently completed slow draft. I'm probably not alone is saying I will be selecting differently fro the top of the draft. Most of my preparation occurred during the draft. I didn't even have a pitchers list until a two weeks ago. Now I'm just tweaking it. My hitting tiers are based on CVRC so they won't change a lot but my drafting philosophy has changed.

[deansdaddy]

I'll echo Viper in regards to the MB Slow Draft. I could easily see myself take a completely different approach to the top of the draft, even from the same draft spot. This is probably where ADP can help the most - it can help you analyze different approaches to the "opening" of the draft. The first few rounds are populated by largely the same names from draft to draft. Every draft will have players shoot up or down - but you can likely "map" out a couple of different plans with APD as part of that process. It is easier to do this if you are closer to the edges where you will have your picks closer together and a better chance of getting the two players you are targeting.

For example - say you get the #14 pick. The first round goes as ADP predicts and when you get to your pick you see Tulowitski, Kinsler, D Wright, Lincecum, Ellsbury, Rollins, Holliday, Reyes and Justin Upton. The top tier 1B are gone. Mauer is gone. You don't want to spend your top 2 picks on a pitcher. You look and see Tulo/Rollins/Reyes and realize that you are guaranteed to get one of them on the way back. You decide to go with scarcity and realize that there are OF's you like in the 3/4 and 5/6 turns. So with the ADP you have whittled down your choices to D Wright/Kinsler with a SS on the way back. From preparation you already know that in RD 3/4 you are looking at Aramis Ramirez maybe being available as the last of your top 3B. You also know that Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill fall in around here as well. You decide to grab David Wright #14 - take the best remaining SS with pick #17 - then when rounds 3/4 come around you reassess what's there. If things go well an OF you love and Cano are there and so on an so on. This is why some players like the power of choosing near the turn.

Some would say drafting from the middle is preferred. It does provide the best view of the draftboard in a live NFBC draft. It also can be easier if you prefer to let the draft come to you rather than being more aggressive, which the turn calls for due to the time between picks.

[Sergio]

Ryan (or any non-rookie),
You mentioned best seat at a live draft, my question is about the live draft I am attending 3-20.
Will the other 11 owners have laptops with backup batteries?

There are no outlets at draft sites, owners must provide own power, correct?

Do you think the hassle/effort of bringing a laptop on the car/plane/train/taxi then to the hotel and then back is worth it?
Thanks

[deansdaddy]

Troy - I would say by all means bring the laptop WITH you - but leave it at the hotel for the draft.

You are going to need the laptop the night before to access your stuff and most importantly to get onto these boards. But my advice would be not to bring it to the Main event draft. You will see very few laptops at the Main Event.
Auctions - you will see more as they can help calculate changing values. But things move so fast in the NFBC drafts at times that the computer can hurt more than it will help. But hey - if you are MORE comfortable working with the laptop at this stage - stick with what works for you. Just print yourself multiple copies of all the info you want to have at the draft table and bring that intead. We can talk more about what people might think is essential to have to draft with.

[Sergio]

It's not the Main event , just a Live Double-play 12 team league.
OK so leave the Dell at the hotel, I guess w/90 seconds to draft your thinking no time, correct?
I'm all good with the KISS process but...............................
I was thinking since I have a co-manager we could assign responsibilties to each of us. I could be tracking projected target numbers on the PC and he could be using MLB team rosters/cheet sheets to track availablility for example.
How would you suggest we approach-attack the live draft room?
What type of documentation is best to have at the table with us?
Thanks

[deansdaddy]

Well - if you have a co-manager then it could work - figure out what each of you will handle and go from there. I would suggest that the guy with the laptop not be the one responsible for calling out your picks though. You want that person focused on the what's happening in the room and not searching for player names in a database or draft software. Also - whatever you are going to use from the laptop - have a hard copy backup of whatever sheet/info you are using on it. Cause if the laptop goes out - you're screwed if you don't have backup hard copy lists.

As for what you can bring - that's up to you. But I will say be organized and uncluttered as possible in front of you.

I like to have:

1) My main tiered rankings sheet - this is the most important thing you can have - I print mine on 11x14 legal paper in the landscape format to fit more names and make them easier to read. As the draft goes on I use everything else I have less and less and this more and more.
2) Roster worksheet for my team - add my picks as I go and track my category targets. One is usually provided by the NFBC - but I always bring a couple of my own as well.

These are the things I will use the most. The following items I usually have on hand and may use them more in the later stages of my drafts - when the player pool has thinned out.

3) ONE magazine on hand for quick player searches. My mag of choice is the Fantasy Baseball Guide Professional Edition. Rotowire's is also good for drafting. I like that both list players alphabetically for easy searching and it has great profiles on the players with lots of experts (including the ones on this website) opinions sprinkled in. The alphabetical listings free you from using someone else's rankings and stick with your own. Have it on hand if you need to look up something quickly.
4) Eligibility list - This is usually provided by the NFBC.
5) CLIPBOARD- an essential tool to keep the clutter organized - I always have a clipboard which usually has a collection of different stuff that I don't really want in front of me when drafting but like to have easy access to if I need to check something out quickly. Some stuff that I may have in the clipboard include: Depth charts, Closer/bullpen report, reminder lists of different types of players such as power/speed guys, good BAvg hitters or SP's with high K/9, the front of the clipboard is just sheets of blank paper for whatever I may it for. My player reminder lists usually exclude players drafted in the first 6 rounds and focus more on players further down my rankings list. I may add some special notes to remind me something like - Franklin Guttierez - 15/15 - nice fallback if I miss out on earlier OF power/speed targets.
6) Draft Worksheet - It's up to you if you want to track the draft pick by pick - I've done both but it's not that important to me. You can sit and fill it in after the draft if you want it. Usually provided by the NFBC.

Again - try to figure out what works - but agree ahead of time who's going to announce your picks and stick with that guy.

[deansdaddy]

One more thing Troy - the strategy for a 12 team draft is very different than for the 15 team one.

Why not post a question about that in the regular strategy section and see what kind of responses you get for it -I have my own opinions - but I'd be interested to see what Todd and the guys have to say about that.

[viper]

other items to have

1. more pens and pencils than you think you will need - I like permanent markers but, if so, try and have something underneath your list to save the tables.
2. I always like an alphabetical list of pitchers and lower tiers hitter with their associated dollar value. Finding a player to cross off the list can be a bear but not if you have a good cross reference list.

Other things to think about.

I like to track how many closers each teams has. This includes MRs. It is good to know if someone is doing a MR strategy and who has more closers than others. In the NFBC 15 team league, the average is two. If two teams have three, then two teams will be short or one team will have zero.

I don't track other teams by position or anything else EXCEPT if I am close to an end. From the #3 slot I will track catchers for the two teams that go before my next selection. Remember I already keep track of closers.

[NickPass]

I agree with Ryan's approach and having the tiered sheets. In my experience, I find that guys who bring laptops are less prepared and generally take more time to make their selections than the guys who don't. It's like they think the laptop will do all of their work for them

Anyway, I'll have a bunch of sheets handy for our live draft on 3/14.