AL-Only Keeper Advice

[Kelly_Leak]

10 team AL-only, $260 draft budget, 6 keepers per year, $100 in-season FAAB, weekly transactions, keeper deadline is March 21st (so I have some time to see how ST plays out). All players have the option of getting a $5 raise OR "one and outing" them at last season's salary making them ineligible to be kept the following year (2011). There is a bit of a story behind Miggy and Hamilton's salaries (involving their trades to the AL two years ago). It is not really relevant to my question at hand though. I have about 10 potential keepers for 6 spots...some much stronger than others.

Definite:
- M. Cabrera, 1B DET ($15/$20) - will extend and keep for $20
- A. Lind, OF TOR ($6/$11) - will extend and keep for $11; willing to deal with another OF for a definite at another position

Probable:
- A. Gordon, 3B KAN ($1/$6) - planning to extend and keep for $6
- F. Francisco, RP TEX ($6/$11) - plan to "one and out" at $6
- N. Reimold, OF BAL ($2/$7) - planning to extend and keep for $7; willing to trade with another OF

Question marks:
- J. Hamilton, OF TEX ($15/$20) - will go for $25+ in the auction; currently trying to trade with another OF
- C. Crawford, OF TAM ($34/$39) - attractive for the one year at $34; will go for $35-$38 in auction
- N. Feliz, SP/RP TEX ($5/$10) - upside play at $10; depending on ST will go for $5-$15 in auction
- S. Baker, SP MIN ($12/$17) - solid one year option at $12; will go for approx. $15 in auction
- M. Rivera, RP NYY ($23/$28) - basically at value at $23; will go for approx. $25 in auction

Doubtful unless they open the season with the team:
- D. Jennings OF TAM ($1/$6)
- Carlos Santana, C CLE ($2/$7)
- Chris Carter, 1B OAK ($1/$6)
- J. Hellickson, SP TAM ($1/$6)

I would love to be able to trade 2 OFs for another definite keeper, but have not had any takers so far. I don't really love the idea of keeping 3 OFs as the position seems pretty deep. I'm actively pursuing I. Kinsler ($23/$28), J. Soria ($11/$16), G. Sizemore ($25/$30), and E. Andrus ($8/$13) to name a few, but for this discussion only look at my current roster.

Thanks for taking the time to review and provide insight.

[AllstonRockCity]

I really like Baker at $12. In a 10 team AL only he's a legit Ace for you. Its nice to know you don't have to chase down a #1 starter at auction. He'll give you a solid WHIP base to boot. My vote is for Baker. This also 'solves' your 3 OF 'problem'.

[da_big_kid_94]

M. Cabrera, 1B DET ($15/$20) - will extend and keep for $20
A. Lind, OF TOR ($6/$11) - will extend and keep for $11; willing to deal with another OF for a definite at another position
F. Francisco, RP TEX ($6/$11) - plan to "one and out" at $6
N. Reimold, OF BAL ($2/$7) - planning to extend and keep for $7; willing to trade with another OF
N. Feliz, SP/RP TEX ($5/$10) - upside play at $10; depending on ST will go for $5-$15 in auction
J. Hamilton, OF TEX ($15/$20) - will go for $25+ in the auction; currently trying to trade with another OF

Francisco makes Mariano expendable. I would be very scared that Crawford winds up in the NL. If he winds up in the Bronx? Happy Birthday - but that's an expensive risk. I think you have to go with the talent you have, not with a model for the talent you wish you had. if you have 3 profitable OFs, that's where one of your strengths lie.

And before Alex Gordon gets extended ..wouldn't it be nice if he actually did something first? If you were to keep him instead of Wonderboy, I could see it ...but not at $6 I couldn't.

[Hambowen]

- M. Cabrera, 1B DET ($15/$20) - will extend and keep for $20
- A. Lind, OF TOR ($6/$11) - will extend and keep for $11; willing to deal with another OF for a definite at another position
- F. Francisco, RP TEX ($6/$11) - plan to "one and out" at $6
- N. Reimold, OF BAL ($2/$7) - planning to extend and keep for $7; willing to trade with another OF
- J. Hamilton, OF TEX ($15/$20) - will go for $25+ in the auction; currently trying to trade with another OF
- S. Baker, SP MIN ($12/$17) - solid one year option at $12; will go for approx. $15 in auction

Agree that 3 OF's are not ideal. Just not big on Gordon until he does something like Kid said. If you have Reimold and Gordon close then might switch them.

Other then that think this gives you your best team construction to go into the draft strong. Cabrera as BA anchor will help if you need to grab guys who have BA wart for cheap $'s.

[Todd Zola]

I'll take Gordon at $6 over Hamilton at $15/$20 in a NY second.

[CubFan]

Do you have to protect 6 or is that the max? If 6 then it comes down as to how you feel about Gordon or Feliz. See what happens in ST as the Rangers are now thinking of using Feliz as a SP. Gordon has not lived up to his hype and word is there are some in the organization who no longer think he'll reach the potential they saw in him when he was drafted. The Royals have done a poor job in evaluating talent with the high picks.....especially over the past half dozen years.

- M. Cabrera, 1B DET ($15/$20) - will extend and keep for $20
- A. Lind, OF TOR ($6/$11) - will extend and keep for $11; willing to deal with another OF for a definite at another position
- F. Francisco, RP TEX ($6/$11) - plan to "one and out" at $6
- N. Reimold, OF BAL ($2/$7) - planning to extend and keep for $7; willing to trade with another OF
- S. Baker, SP MIN ($12/$17) - solid one year option at $12; will go for approx. $15 in auction

[Kelly_Leak]

Thank you for the quick (and numerous) replies...

To be honest, ending the 2009 season, I probably would have picked Hamilton as my 6th keeper. After reading various reports and then seeing MB's projection made me really sour on the guy. Plus, as I mentioned I would prefer to have some OF spots available come draft day as the available pool seems more plentiful than usual.

To address several questions/statements:

I would be very scared that Crawford winds up in the NL.

This statement scares the bejesus out of me as we have a SOL stance/rules when it comes to guys being traded to the NL. Obviously it is impossible to predict.

And before Alex Gordon gets extended ..wouldn't it be nice if he actually did something first?

I was hoping I would get a DBK response on this one because, for whatever reason, Mr. Gordon always ends up on my AL squad and he always seems to be in the "keeper picture" for me ... and every year da_big_kid tells me to consider someone else. Do I ever listen? Of coarse not and every year I have been burned. Part of the Gordon pick is because I suspect/know A-Rod, Longoria, and Youk will all be kept and he is definitely below market value.

Do you have to protect 6 or is that the max?

No, 6 is the max, we can keep less ... at the very least, I feel as though I have several guys at value that I can plug into that 6th spot.

I think I am leaning towards:
- M. Cabrera $20
- S. Baker $12 - one and out
- A. Lind $11
- N. Reimold $7
- A. Gordon $6
- F. Francisco $6 - one and out

[rant]
In the past ten years of playing in this league, I always seem to have one or two prospects/rookies in contention for a final keeper spot the next year and almost every time I have opted for someone like Scott Baker. I know its the safe play, but it is frustrating to have the Crawfords, Longorias, Felixs, and Greinkes a year too early. I know its all about the Yoohoo shower at the end of the year, but have you ever kept a speculative prospect (Feliz) over a tried and true vet (Baker)?

At the end of the day this game/hobby is all about having fun. I'm not really sure why, but I really want to hit a home run on a speculative keeper pick one of these years. I have seen others do it with Johan, G. Sizemore, V-Mart, etc. My one attempt was with the aforementioned Gordon - ugh!
[/rant]

[Todd Zola]

Our hedge is with Hamilton's playing time. We even ran a poll on it earlier in the winter.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1007

if you think he will play more, adjust accordingly. The easiest way to make a projection "your own" is to assign your estimation of playing time to a skill level you trust, and prorate the numbers accordingly.

With respect to Gordon, you don't need to hit the proverbial home run to make back your six bucks.

You only need him to hit about 10 HR and swipe 5 bases. Everything above that is profit.

[Tampa Bob]

To me that looks like the proper list of 6. I often come here asking that others throw cold water on my scheme to make the "fun" (Feliz) pick instead of the correct pick.

The response is generally either:

1. You can get him back for about the same price.

2. If they want him so badly they'll trade for him.

3. You're on drugs.

I have Feliz and fortunately can stash him on my Minor League roster for another year. This is not his year. The same could be said of Santana as well. He'd make a fine 2nd catcher this year and if you can get him for $5-7 at the auction I'd be happy for you.

[da_big_kid_94]

I have Feliz and fortunately can stash him on my Minor League roster for another year. This is not his year. The same could be said of Santana as well. He'd make a fine 2nd catcher this year and if you can get him for $5-7 at the auction I'd be happy for you.

Now, had Nolan Ryan's group not won out on the bidding for the Rangers. I would probably have agreed with you. But with him still overseeing the pitching staff, I'm not so sure this won't be Feliz's year ... especially with C.J. Wilson shooting his big mouth off the other day and Derek Holland's knee status still up in the air. Colby Lewis, Brandon Mc Carthy, Scott Feldman ... I think Feliz has a good shot of beating one of these three out. EDIT: Inadvertently listed Scott Feldman when it should have read Matt Harrison.

This statement scares the bejesus out of me as we have a SOL stance/rules when it comes to guys being traded to the NL. Obviously it is impossible to predict.

I understand why it would and we're in the same boat league makeup wise. I, for one, was SHOCKED when they picked up his option - this is a team that doesn't have a lot of money to play with and a lot of people, including myself, thought that Crawford might not spend the whole year in Tampa..especially with Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings.

At a buck, Gordon is worth the risk - but I go back to the Felipe Lopez discussion if a few years prior - if, as Todd says 10 HR and 5 bags but a sub .250 averarge and less than 60 RBI? That's a buck's worth of value, not six ...especially in AL only. He's only undervalued based on potential, not achievements to date.

[AllstonRockCity]

[rant]
In the past ten years of playing in this league, I always seem to have one or two prospects/rookies in contention for a final keeper spot the next year and almost every time I have opted for someone like Scott Baker. I know its the safe play, but it is frustrating to have the Crawfords, Longorias, Felixs, and Greinkes a year too early. I know its all about the Yoohoo shower at the end of the year, but have you ever kept a speculative prospect (Feliz) over a tried and true vet (Baker)?

At the end of the day this game/hobby is all about having fun. I'm not really sure why, but I really want to hit a home run on a speculative keeper pick one of these years. I have seen others do it with Johan, G. Sizemore, V-Mart, etc. My one attempt was with the aforementioned Gordon - ugh!
[/rant]

That's understandable, but forcing it to happen is not the answer. Guys like the one's you listed are special cases (and Felix and Grienke took a few years to get there) and not something you can manufacture. of course, if you never try you'll never get one. balance is in order. Gordon and Feliz are the 2 guys that best fit that breakout/big profit mold that you're looking for. Perhaps making it a competition between the 2 of them is the way to go, that way you get the best of both worlds. the safe vet in Baker (and a legit #1 in your format) and the profit potential in Gordon/Feliz

[Todd Zola]

if, as Todd says 10 HR and 5 bags but a sub .250 averarge and less than 60 RBI? That's a buck's worth of value, not six ...especially in AL only. He's only undervalued based on potential, not achievements to date.

I won't belabor the point but a line of .250-10-50-5-50 over 500 AB is "worth" $7 in 10-team AL only. Depending on the individual league, it may not cost that much to get him.

Given 500 AB, the above line would be significantly worse than his production to date. He should be 15-65-10-65 at minimum. And that is worth closer to $15.

My point is not that "this is the year." It is only that a $6 Gordon in this format is at half value.

[Kelly_Leak]

It is only that a $6 Gordon in this format is at half value.

Just wanted to add that the initial values I have run for this league using the 2/15 projections (and my own category weights) has Gordon at $12. I'm not sure what he would actually go for at auction (probably between $10 and $15)...I guess it would depend on his intrinsic value to each owner at the time of nomination.

Kid - your point is well taken. Trust me, I have wondered if I would be better off by tossing Gordon back and pursuing a Micheal Young instead. Unfortunately, Young is by far the best 3Bman left (ARod, Longoria, Youk, Beckham, and possibly Figgins will all be kept). I can definitely envision a bit of a bidding war for him.

[lawr]

i really would seriously think about crawford, though i more than appreciate having the bejesus scared out of you.

first year i played i got tom brunansky for like $15, a really good value, and then he got swapped to the cards and i got zip. i still finished in the money, but it was like getting a body part ripped off, at the time.

cabrera for sure.
and, i too like gordon. i think he will do .270-15-70 or so. which is ok for the $6. i actually think he is capable of better, but, for now if he just does that it would be enough.

hamilton actually is the one who scares me most, though he is awesome when on, for sure. but, i would probably gamble on gordon first, since both are gambles.

and, i love neftali, but he is too much of a risk relative to what else you have. though personally, i would rather keep him over francisco. and, well, i would not, i would just prefer to.

[da_big_kid_94]

Kid - your point is well taken. Trust me, I have wondered if I would be better off by tossing Gordon back and pursuing a Micheal Young instead. Unfortunately, Young is by far the best 3Bman left (ARod, Longoria, Youk, Beckham, and possibly Figgins will all be kept). I can definitely envision a bit of a bidding war for him.

Quite understandable - allow me to put it this way - you think Michael Young is the best remaining 3B after Arod, Longoria, Youklis, Beckham (who will wind up at 2B) and Figgins. Now, why would Alex Gordon be a comparative fit amongst those names if Michael Young is not? Given some of the keepers you have already listed, I do not see why it is an imperative for you to be "competitive" at third base. With the list of keepers you potentially have, to walk away with Atkins, Teahen, Beltre or Inge in a ten team AL only would not break my heart.

[Todd Zola]

With the list of keepers you potentially have, to walk away with Atkins, Teahen, Beltre or Inge in a ten team AL only would not break my heart.

Can we replace Inge with Kouzmanoff? Sorry, just not at Inge guy, especially with only 10 team AL only. His poor average is a given. I'm no longer sure his power will be enough to offset it.

Another Gordon thought is if this is a balls to the wall, GO FOR IT YEAR, keeping him at $1 and using the $5 elsewhere should be under consideration as well.

[da_big_kid_94]

With the list of keepers you potentially have, to walk away with Atkins, Teahen, Beltre or Inge in a ten team AL only would not break my heart.

Can we replace Inge with Kouzmanoff? Sorry, just not at Inge guy, especially with only 10 team AL only. His poor average is a given. I'm no longer sure his power will be enough to offset it.

Another Gordon thought is if this is a balls to the wall, GO FOR IT YEAR, keeping him at $1 and using the $5 elsewhere should be under consideration as well.

I'd still want Inge over Kouz because of the teams they're playing on. I can see why they could be considered close to a wash - BA vs power ...so I wouldn't seriously quibble - it's just I don't think Kouz has developed they way I thought he could back when he was with the Indians. I see about as much offensive opportunity with the A's as I saw with the Padres. And I must admit there may be some sort of unsubstantiated personal bias in this case.