MB'09 - Alex Gordon, 3B, KC

[Bodhizefa]

I don't know if any of you have heard, but there's a pretty bad bug that's been going around fantasy circles these last couple of years. And that bug is Alex Gordonitis.

We've been waiting for him to break out for years now, and he's still only 24-years-old (25 in February). But yes, we've said that about plenty of prospects in the past. Austin Kearns says hi, by the way. So the big question in my mind is whether, at this point in his career, Gordon takes the next step (as his burgeoning walk rates, declining strikeout rates, and ever-growing flyball rate suggest) or if he goes the route of Hank Blalock and both never learns how to hit lefties and also stagnates in growth?

I surely wish I had answers here. We've all been predicting a bold breakout for Gordon for a good while now. Hedging my bets, I'd guess that Gordon puts up similar numbers to Adrian Beltre this year, with both having mild chances of beating their likely projection (Beltre because he should be moving out of Safeco soon and Gordon due to growth in skillset). I'd be very interested to see what the two of them will go for in drafts this year, as I'm sure the make-up of the league owners will likely determine who is the better deal.

[da_big_kid_94]

With Gordon, I can't help but think that a lot of it has to do with the environment he's in. I'm not going for a joke here ...but do you remember about three years back when they had Sweeney, Pickering and Harvey on the roster at the same time? In essence, three of the same player (slow, non athletic 1B/DH types). Fast forward to now - Jacobs, Shealy, Gload. I see a pattern. You have Butler to DH only, you went out and got Kyle Farnsworth, for God's sake, and you have the three time winner of the Miss Congeniality award in my fave, Jose Guillen. There's a whole lot more (trade for a CF when you already have one, etc.), but you get the point - it is almost as if they are setting Gordon up to fail.

He'd better make third base his own right away because they have too many options everywhere else he COULD play to wait for him to come around (they're not GREAT options - but they're there). I think that pressure, combined with all the pressure already on him as a perceived late bloomer/possible Clint Hurdle type midWest bust has got to be weighing on him. And the big problem is, if they overvalued Teahen, what sort of ransom would be demanded in return for Gordon? I think KC management has put Gordon squarely behind the 8 ball here.

[Mojo Jojo]

Bod,

just trade him to me and stop worrying about it...all this stress on whether or not he finally breaks out isn't good for your health and could lead to hypertension...

[Todd Zola]

Gordon is the type of player I like to target "at value" because the hype has worn off, possibly even having a negative effect, so he can he drafted at value.

"At value" means about .255-.265, 17-22 HR, 10-15 SB.

At this level of production, the downside risk is minimal while the upside reward is fairly significant.

Compare this to Adrian Beltre in terms of upside potential, not actual numbers -- Beltre's 3-year line is flat, you can lay a board on the numbers and a ball will not roll off. You can pretty much pencil in Beltre for .265-.275, 24-26 HR, 8-12 SB. There is limited upside, but assuming health, limited downside is well.

Remember, I am not comparing Gordon and Beltre's value against each other, just the nature of the risk/reward getting each at value.

If your picks until Gordon were relatively safe, you may want Gordon to give yourself some profit potential.

If your picks until Beltre were risky, you may want Beltre to add a level of stability.

[cwk1963]

Gordon was the next George Brett. Before anyone jump ugly all over me, that wasn't my characterization. That is what was coming out of KC or Baseball America or wherever. But wherever the comparisons were coming from I certainly heard them. So, for the sake of argument, let's look at both of them. For the sake of this experiment, I'll leave out George's 1973 season when he only had 40 AB. So for their first 2 full seasons, Brett has a 1091-1036 AB edge. When it comes to BA, Brett has it all over Alex - .297 to .253. George was hitting .300 by his 2nd full year and never looked back. It's interesting to see that Alex draws walks more than George did 107 - 67. On the other hand, he also struck out at a far greater rate 257-87! Their OBP is virtually identical. Alex has out homered Brett 31-13. While people are getting on Alex's case for his lack of power, Brett didn't crack the 20 HR barrier until his 4th full season. While some might say George's doubles eventually became HR, Alex has hit more of them as well 71-56. Alex owns a slight edge in SB 23-21 but has a much better rate have been caught 6 times to George's 15.

So what does all this mean? Gordon certainly has pop and can run. The difference between he and George Brett at this point is plate discipline. If he can learn to K less, he has a very good career ahead or him. But that could have been said about many a player. We'll have to see if Alex has it in him.

[CubFan]

cwk....nice comps done on Gordon.

Hot off the press.....err radio waves. Just heard a short interview with Kevin Seitzer (new Royal's hitting coach). Take this with a grain of salt as talk is cheap. Anyway, he was gushing about how Gordon has shown huge improvements this off season. He looks totally different than last year and is tearing the cover off the ball (His words not mine). He's making heads turn, including management, during BP. Time will tell. Apparantly, the word from last year is that many of the hitters did not take to heart what the previous hitting coach preached to them. Dunno, maybe, just maybe Seitzer got through to Gordon. If nothing else ST will be interesting to see how well his off-season translates to the games. If Gordon really has turned the corner and is set on a mission this season I suspect he will not be "tweaking his approach and working on certain pitches" or "taking the ball to the other field".....he'll come out mashing. We'll see, but as Todd noted, with the shine off his star, he should be a buy-low type candidate.

[cwk1963]

Nice bit of info there, CubFan. I have to admit, Alex was one of my drafted minors from the beginning and I've owned him every year he's been in the majors. Yes, major man crush here. Just like the one I had on Justin Morneau with the whole Jose f'n Offerman fiasco a few years ago. Some might remember my rantings at the time. Jason probably does because he was ranting almost as much. I hope Alex does step it up as I'm planning on keeping him.