Keepers advice needed

Get advice specific to your team. This can be opinions on trades, free agent or waiver pickups, who to start or even just "rate my team". It is helpful if you provide sufficient details regarding your league format and team composition.
Post Reply
Message
Author
Nafi

Keepers advice needed

#1 Post by Nafi »

Hi all,

First post here and seeking for advice on my keepers as there are great comments in other threads. I'm in a 15 teams 5x5 mixed league. We have to keep 7 players and can keep an additional minor-leaguer (mine is Jennings, Desmond OF TB). I finished 5th last year, largely but not solely, because 3 of my first 5 picks were abysmal choices (in hindsight) : Atkins, Kelly Johnson and Brett Myers to name them. It is a 12 year-old league and is very competitive (to me). Saves are absolutely overvalued (they go starting in round 3 and all "safe" options are gone by round 7), but don't tell the other owners!

I have narrowed it down to 5 certainties:
Pujols, Albert 1B STL
Teixeira, Mark 1B NYY
Halladay, Roy SP PHI
Haren, Dan SP ARI
Crawford, Carl LF TB

And 4 potential keepers:
Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS
Vazquez, Javier SP NYY
Werth, Jayson RF PHI
Wieters, Matt C BAL

I'm leaning towards Werth and Pedroia at the moment. Pedroia for the scarcity at MM in our league but I'm not sure Werth will repeat the carreer year? Wieters has potential but I'm not sure it's worth the wait at keeper over Pedroia? Vazquez always seems to have an inconsistent year between great years, besides I have a good core of pitchers already with Haren and Doc...

I need to make up my mind by March 1st. Please help!

AllstonRockCity

Re: Keepers advice needed

#2 Post by AllstonRockCity »

Welcome!

with Haren and Holliday already kept, there is no need for Javy. Werth IMO is a no-brainer. That leaves you choosing between Weiters and Pedroia. While Pedroia needs to 'max it out' to give you a really good stat line, he has proven that he can do this, repeatedly. Weiters does not have the track record of Peety. I'd to with Perdoia and sleep well.

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#3 Post by Nafi »

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm thinking the same for Wieters - learned my lesson the hard way as Soto was one of my keepers last year. Catcher is so scarce, so seeing the second coming of Piazza is enticing. I'm thinking maybe someone can change my mind with some good arguments for Javy or Wieters.

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#4 Post by Todd Zola »

Is there a limit to how long you can keep players? If not, I would seriously consider keeping Wieters as he will be a bonafide keeper as soon as next season. I say this because your keeper list is much stronger than a typical 15-team league should be.

Pujols #1 overall
Teixeira and Crawford both mid to late first rounders
Halladay and Haren 3rd/4th rounders.

That's SICK!!!

Add in the potential of Pedroia and Werth as 2nd/3rd rounders and what you basically have is...

R1 Pujols
R2 Crawford
R3 Pedroia/Werth
R4 Halladay
R5 Haren
R6 Teixeira
R7 Wieters

Basically, you are getting a FIRST ROUNDER in R6 and a 9th/10th rounder in R7, but someone that could be a yop-5 rounder as soon as 2011.

You could keep Werth and Pedroia, and get the equivalent of a 3rd rounder in R7, but if this is indeed a pseudo dynasty format where you can keep guys forever, I get greedy, compete this season with Wieters as my 7th.

Between Pedroia and Werth, I like Pedroia a little more as the likelihood if a decent 2B not frozen is slim and there are not too many "sleepers" at the position.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#5 Post by Nafi »

Bottom-feeding for a few years will get you the keeper options I have! Our keepers are to keep forever if we so choose. I know I have a strong core of keepers, but the 23 rounds of the draft are equally important. Proof of concept is my last two years with the same top 5 keepers but I finished 4th and 5th - I won 3 years in a row before that!

I am a very conservative person in life, so taking risks is really hard for me. So for Wieters over Werth : I'm thinking best case scenario for Wieters in 2010 is .280-70-20-70-0. Whereas Werth is .275-100-30-100-20. Am I right to think that Werth is giving me more at his position compared to the average OF than Wieters would compared to an average C?

AllstonRockCity

Re: Keepers advice needed

#6 Post by AllstonRockCity »

I'll let Todd answer that question.

The fact that they are lifetime keepers does certainly change things. Now Weiters is your no-brainer (without risk there is no profit) and it comes down to Pedroia v. Werth. If you want the straight stats, I'd go Werth. But, given your ridiculous keeper list, I'd go with Pedroia for the position scarcity. Also with Pujols and Pedroia, thats a serious AVG cushion, allowing you to take more of the low AVG high counting stat type guys that will be around in the mid to late rounds.

Also, how many OF do you start, 5?

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#7 Post by Todd Zola »

Nafi wrote:Bottom-feeding for a few years will get you the keeper options I have! Our keepers are to keep forever if we so choose. I know I have a strong core of keepers, but the 23 rounds of the draft are equally important. Proof of concept is my last two years with the same top 5 keepers but I finished 4th and 5th - I won 3 years in a row before that!

I am a very conservative person in life, so taking risks is really hard for me. So for Wieters over Werth : I'm thinking best case scenario for Wieters in 2010 is .280-70-20-70-0. Whereas Werth is .275-100-30-100-20. Am I right to think that Werth is giving me more at his position compared to the average OF than Wieters would compared to an average C?
Second part first, yes, Werth is the play if you want to win this year. But...

You obviously drafted Wieters at some point and when you did so, you took a risk. You now have a chance to reap the reward from that risk by freezing him.

Now the first part -- the previous two seasons, did you have a forum at you beck and call with some pretty smart people to help you make sure you have a strong draft? ;)
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#8 Post by Nafi »

Todd, you are right, I didn't have a strong support cast the last few years! ;)

Alston, we start 5 OF and have a DH spot (Utility player but DH can only be slotted here).

We have a Minors player slot as 8th keeper. I've been hanging on to Wieters for 2 years now. He never impacted my 7 "real" keepers list before this year as he hadn't played a single MLB game before last May so it wasn't that much of a risk. But seeing my keepers list is still pretty strong, I'm having a hard time dropping one of Werth or Pedroia for him...

AllstonRockCity

Re: Keepers advice needed

#9 Post by AllstonRockCity »

Nafi wrote: I'm having a hard time dropping one of Werth or Pedroia for him...[Weiters]
Then trade whichever one nets you more; assuming of course you can trade. If you can't trade for picks, see if the guy with Utley wants Werth and Pedroia for him (just an example). Now, you might say, thats a heck of a lot to give up for Utley, but if you have to drop one of them anyway, your really only trading 1 of them for Utley, and that would be a steal.

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#10 Post by Todd Zola »

Nafi wrote:Todd, you are right, I didn't have a strong support cast the last few years! ;)

Alston, we start 5 OF and have a DH spot (Utility player but DH can only be slotted here).

We have a Minors player slot as 8th keeper. I've been hanging on to Wieters for 2 years now. He never impacted my 7 "real" keepers list before this year as he hadn't played a single MLB game before last May so it wasn't that much of a risk. But seeing my keepers list is still pretty strong, I'm having a hard time dropping one of Werth or Pedroia for him...
In theory a minors spot is one where groom a keeper. Not saying definitely keep him to justify holding him though.

My sense is that had the winning and losing been in reverse, you would be more comfortable keeping Wieters. That is, if you were coming off a 2-year winning streak, your confidence in your drafting ability would be higher.

You didn't forget how to draft the past 2 seasons, stuff happens.

Something else to consider is with Jennings, Crawford becomes a great trade chip and you can already afford to deal Teixeira.

If trading is active, you may want to try to turn Teixeira into a 3B or SS, then in a couple of years, get the other position for Crawford.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Mickey4081

Re: Keepers advice needed

#11 Post by Mickey4081 »

Pedroia is a lock. How don't you lock up one of the top all around 2nd baseman in the game?

I'd lean towards keeping Weiters and take a chance on drafting Werth. I'd feel much better knowing I've locked up quite possibly one of the top slugging catchers around.

rotodog

Re: Keepers advice needed

#12 Post by rotodog »

I am going in a different direction here...

I dont rust catchers not named Piazza...So I am biased..

I assume this is a 2 catcher format...and If it is not, Well Weiters isnt the call...

Even if 2 catchers, I say you have to keep Werth and Pedroia.. Javy is expendable..

I would do my best to pimp the crap out of Weiters and get a draft pick back if thats allowed.

I know Weiters is sweet... I know you have an emotional attachment to him and need justification for holding him...

And I know lifetime keepers is an issue...But if you tossed Werth or Pedrioa back, you can guaran- dam - tee each will be scooped in the first rd of a keeper league with 7 players being kept... Can we say the same for Weiters? And if you were in rd 1 of the draft, and had a choice of Pedroia and Werth and Weiters, which would you take? Would you take Weiters over either? And assuming you take one of Pedroia or Werth, and in rd 2 the other is still available along with Weiters, do you take Weiters over the one left over?

If you answer yes, then keep him...If the answer is No, then toss him or trade him....If you won 3 times and you have a great list, you can win again.....Given the choice of Winning now or winning in 2012 , take the now every day.... Especially with a keeper list like that ...

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#13 Post by Todd Zola »

Problem is this is the equivalent of round 8 of the draft and that is the point Wieters is being taken in 15 team leagues. I am pretty sure someone will draft the hype, especially in a forever league.

I think the mindset needs to be different in a dynasty league. You can tell how I feel about catchers from my sig. But if one thinks Wieters is a risk, take a look at what is coming in next few years at the position -- NOTHING.

Even if Wieters performs like a 7th round pick, he is well worth the investment in a dynasty format.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

AllstonRockCity

Re: Keepers advice needed

#14 Post by AllstonRockCity »

So what's the deal with trading in your league?

rotodog

Re: Keepers advice needed

#15 Post by rotodog »

todd,

On this one I disagree...I realize that this is rd 8 in this keeper and weiters in rd 8 of a 15 team keeper is fine...But Werth and Pedroia are 2nd-3rd players in all fantasy baseball....Whats going to happen to them in a rd 8 keeper league? They will most certainly be grabbed in rd 1 (rd 8)...

And I realize this is a forever keeper type thing, but there are only 7 keepers from season to season...Its not like there wont be catchers to draft in this format...

Weiters is a fine player with fine upside. What can we reasonably expect from Matt over the next 2 years? Maybe .285-.300 20-25 HR 0 Sbs ? Thats a fine line for a catcher, but what you have is Jorge posada....I dont remember Posada ever getting the love that Weiters does, even in his prime. Even Old Posada still delivers that batting line. Posada is available in 96% of all keeper drafts every year for the last 4..

Even in his prime Posada didnt get the same respect we are giving Weiter..Yes he was valuable, especially in AL only, but I really dont recall the same level of universal love for him...

Werth is certainly no huge bet to play another 3 years completely injury free or at this level..But, I still think for the next 2 years Werth outproduces Weiters and still swipes bags.. 30/20 players dont grow on trees...

If he owned Sizemore instead of Werth , would that change anyones assessment? I suspect it might..But you have almost the same player...Sure, a few more HR form Werth, a few more sbs from Sizemore, but they are for all intents and purposes the same player statistically...

The other factor is we dont know what pick in this draft he has. He very well may be able to grab Weiters back with his first pick.. I truly believe that Pedroia and Werth would be taken in most leagues like this one before Weiters is..And you at least have a chance to grab Weiters back..

But it is only my assessment .. Everyone values players differently. Someone may have a BIG MAN CRUSH on Weiters in his league....Pedroia could also be the recipient of such man love...Who knows?

Thats why I asked OP if Pedroia, Werth and Weiters are all sitting there with his first pick, which he would take if he never owned Matt W. If his honest answer is I would take Weiters, then Keep Weiters instead..

Listen, when I cant decide what to do in a keeper league, I do one thing. Trade someone! That solves the whole problem assuming you get something relevant in return.. :D

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#16 Post by Todd Zola »

I'm not talking about the next 2 years, I am talking about the next 12 years.

In a dynasty league, you want to build a dynasty. Wieters helps build a dynasty, Pedroia and Werth help win this season.

Normally, I am a flags fly forever type guy, even in dynasties.

But here there is a better than solid chance of flying that flag this season and setting oneself up to do it for a dozen more.

Wieter's floor is Jorge Posada ceiling.

Wieter's celing is MarkTeixeira.

How high would Teixeira go if he had a catcher's mitt?

This is how you build a dynasty, not compete in a yearly basis in a keeper league.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#17 Post by Nafi »

First off to answer a few questions:
We cannot trade for draft picks.
It is a 2 catchers format.

Thank you so much for having great arguments for both sides of the fence. It was exactly the dilemma that I was brewing all alone in my tiny head... I know the vast majority of the planet is thinking I have to risk keeping him (as I did with Teixeira for two seasons while I was a cellar dwellar). The difference back then was that I was in reconstruction mode, whereas now, I'm in contention mode. It's hard to give away immediate production - regardless of position - for potential production! It's driving my conservative being nuts!!!

Of course I used the Minors slot for the specific reason of stashing that next uber-prospect, but I had no idea (ok maybe a little) that my keepers would look like this. I know they are all sure thing keepers in most other teams if not all other teams in my league. To top it off, no one is really that old and on the verge of a decline in my keepers (certainly not "Jamie-Moyer-old" but you get the drift), so I can't readily discard any of them for that reason.

I think the best option would be to package two of my 3 potential keepers (I think I've pretty much crossed out Vazquez) in a trade for a better player. But at this point I don't know if the other managers will bite knowing full well they can have a shot at one of them in the first round in 10 days. The owner who has Longoria and the first pick might be my best chance at upgrading.

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#18 Post by Nafi »

rotodog wrote:todd,

Thats why I asked OP if Pedroia, Werth and Weiters are all sitting there with his first pick, which he would take if he never owned Matt W. If his honest answer is I would take Weiters, then Keep Weiters instead..

Listen, when I cant decide what to do in a keeper league, I do one thing. Trade someone! That solves the whole problem assuming you get something relevant in return.. :D
Exactly what I am trying to do as of now. I did the same after the first season I won when I was in a similar situation and that netted me Albert! ;) It was a trade where I gave up 5 keepers for Pujols and some other keeper. We changed the rules after that to max out the number of players in a trade to 2 for 1.

I just don't know if I'll have any takers. The fact of the matter is I'm not THAT high on Wieters with Pedroia and Werth on hand. If I didn't have them it would be a totally different story.

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#19 Post by Todd Zola »

Okay, so who else has the scene from Animal House in their head, with me dressed as the evil Nafi saying

"Keep him, keep his brains out."

Then rotodog dressed as the good Nafi...

"For shame, Nafi. I'm surprised at you! "

ME: "Aw, don't listen to that jack-off. Look at those MLEs. You'll never get a better chance"

good times.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

rotodog

Re: Keepers advice needed

#20 Post by rotodog »

I understand totally... believe me...

It is just 2 different mindsets. I do not ever want to pass a chance to win if it is within reasonable grasp. It is always a dance between win now and keep the train moving for the future..

If it were me, i would market the crap out of all 3 piece and see what comes in... Maybe at least you get something of value instead of Zero by tossing something back in..

If this were an unlimited keepers, 12 keepers or something similar, I would have a different opinion...Come draft day, you cant always get what you need. But at 7 keepers and your list this year, I think it knocks down Weiters importance going forward and the reality exists that you can get Weiters back easier in rd 1 than the other two...But thats just my feeling. you know the league better than we do.

I Just think of the guys salivating with early picks and Pedroia or Werth is sitting there next to guys like Clint barmes and magglio ordonez...

FWIW, I have watched all these types of people fail over the years:
1rookie collectors,
2Rookie hoarders,
3 Guys with the cheapest, best studliest keeper list,
4 and guys that just will not ever make a deal to win.

The rookie collectors and hoarders, just collect more rookies..
If they ever get so lucky that all there rookie chips come together at the same time, what do they do? buy more rookies!

I have watched people in 1st, 2nd , 3rd place on Aug 15th and refuse to trade a "keeper" to acquire what they need to take the title... And in the offseason and next seasons draft they talk about how close they came again to winning..But at least they still have Player X and a decent chance to maybe win this year! :roll: Thats for the last 10 years without winning...

My point is if you have a great team and if you can win, Then do what you can to Win! Put your name on the plaque, take the money, bring the fellas out to the girlie joint, and be recognized as a winner..Nobody can ever take that away from you! Never... You won! You are a WINNER!!
Its better than being known as the guy with the best keepers every year, but no name on the plaque..

If you can give a little, keep a little and still be able to compete next year, thats success... For my style, Werth or Pedroia for Weiters gives me a better chance to put my name on the gold little plate on that plaque..

One player shouldnt determine success or failure for the next 12 years...Unless his name was Albert :D

I am just trying to provide a counterpoint to many of the opinions expressed earlier about Weiters..just another way to look at it for you.. It doesnt mean it is right or more right than any other opinion..

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#21 Post by Todd Zola »

In a 15-team league, if the order is in reverse of last year's standings, Wieters is off the board before most even have their highlighter uncapped.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#22 Post by Todd Zola »

To me, it's not so much a different mindset in general, but more an understanding of the dynamic of a dynasty league.

And what we potentially have is Albert wearing a mask.

In an upcoming site piece, everyone will see how the majority of us feel about potential.

But let's not lose sight of the fact that what is driving this is a keeper list that can compete this season AND stash Wieters.

We're talking about keeper #7 here.

If this league started from scratch, with these rules, where do you think Wieters gets drafted?

How much different is that from keeping a player at an inflated price because he would go for more in the auction?

Of course, dang Pedroia and Werth complicate matters here 8-)
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

rotodog

Re: Keepers advice needed

#23 Post by rotodog »

Todd Zola wrote:Okay, so who else has the scene from Animal House in their head, with me dressed as the evil Nafi saying

"Keep him, keep his brains out."

Then rotodog dressed as the good Nafi...

"For shame, Nafi. I'm surprised at you! "

ME: "Aw, don't listen to that jack-off. Look at those MLEs. You'll never get a better chance"

good times.
Todd,

I think it would be the other way around.. I need to be the BAD NAFI...And you the Angelic one..

I see it as this:

Good Nafi: "keep him, keep his wonderful makeup , his great MLE's and for the future of the franchise"

Bad Nafi : " Frig Him! Frig his brains right back to the draft table! 3 words: Prior, Gordon, grieve!!! Frig em All!!"

At this point, Flounder walks into this dream and is the voice of reason.

He says " the solution to this problem is easy, all you need to do is thi............."

Then you wake up..

Todd, you are too nice to be the bad Nafi!

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#24 Post by Todd Zola »

I've always said I am going to title my memoirs "If They Only Knew the Truth".
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Mickey4081

Re: Keepers advice needed

#25 Post by Mickey4081 »

It's pretty simple actually. 15 teams with 7 keepers Pedroia is a keeper period. If you REALLY want to win in 2010 and you really are not THAT caught up into the Dynasty thing and are not sold on Wieters just yet then you definitely keep Werth too......without question.

Dynasty, lifetime keepers. I think in a year or two you may regret not locking up Wieters when you had the chance.

AllstonRockCity

Re: Keepers advice needed

#26 Post by AllstonRockCity »

rotodog wrote:If it were me, i would market the crap out of all 3 piece and see what comes in... Maybe at least you get something of value instead of Zero by tossing something back in..
exactly.

Hambowen

Re: Keepers advice needed

#27 Post by Hambowen »

Pedroia without a doubt. Based on Position and stats.

I would also go Weiters if I had to choose in a league like this. The potential for long term domination if he is "Albert with a mask" (kinda shocked that came from Todd) is just too much to pass up.

Also you said that all good closers get kept or taken early in the draft. If that is the case then a lot of good hitting will be available to be drafted because they fall farther then normal due to the closers. Those hitters that fall will be OF's more likely then not, not Werth quality but still very productive players. They will not be Catchers of any quality.


Being dominate in the scarce positions in a Dynasty league like this is such an amazing advantage I could just not pass up that potential. I would hate myself in 2 years.

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#28 Post by Todd Zola »

Hambowen wrote: I would also go Weiters if I had to choose in a league like this. The potential for long term domination if he is "Albert with a mask" (kinda shocked that came from Todd) is just too much to pass up..
His raw stats profile to more like Teixeira. Where would Tex be drafted if he were a catcher?

The Albert comment was in context with the discussion, not a suggestion his upside is .320-45-140-15-110 :shock:
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#29 Post by Nafi »

No luck in trying to upgrade by trading away some of my keepers. Thanks to all for your very constructive arguments. In the end, I decided to get greedy... So "bad" Nafi has won, depending on your view of the situation.

Pujols, Albert 1B STL
Teixeira, Mark 1B NYY
Halladay, Roy SP PHI
Haren, Dan SP ARI
Crawford, Carl LF TB
Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS
Wieters, Matt C BAL

I predict Werth to go off the board no later than 2nd overall. ;)

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed - 2011 UPDATE

#30 Post by Nafi »

Hello again! I'm here once more to get your valuable feedback as I'm faced with yet another keeper list issue! Please go back to the first post in this thread for my league's setup. It's hard to imagine I'd be faced with a bigger problem than last year's but I think it is. First, I'll start by announcing I placed first overall in 2010. Even though I kept Wieters over Werth! It started out downhill but I climbed back slowly to win it all by season's end. So onto my problem: I have to keep 7 players. My first 3 are no-brainers.

-Pujols
-Halladay
-Crawford

Nuff Said.

The next 4 are harder to decide on (I still have a month to decide)... Here's the better part of my 2010 roster. I've put them in order of preference to make my keeper list as of right now with a little insight into each player and his relation with me :-)

-Teixeira (I can't even believe he's not in my no-brainer list... but look below and you will understand why)
-Dan Haren (inconsistent but on-par with my expectations)
-Pedroia (injury ridden year, but it's Pedroia)
-Max Scherzer (Worried I wasted a 4th rd pick on him when he was headed to the Minors, but absolutely loved him when he came back a few weeks later!)
-Jose Bautista (I drafted him on my bench, i.e. as my 7th OF in the 19th rd! Repeat? Unlikely. 35HR, more than likely and has 3B eligibility which is SWEET)
-Matt Wieters (2011 should be THE year he breaks out?)
-Joakim Soria (closer, no thanks)
-Jonathan O. Sanchez (got him via trade for Denard Span -my 1st rd pick- in June as I thought I needed help in pitching - glad I did)
-Colby Lewis (Drafted him as my next to last pitcher in th 15th rd.)
-Rickie Weeks (drafted in 2nd rd. and stepped up for me when Pedroia went down)
-Paul Konerko (I thought I HAD to draft him when he was still available in the 6th rd. - glad I did, but he's a DH and no place on my keeper list for that kind)

The thought of keeping 3 pitchers with 200K potential is enticing. But I'd have to give up Pedroia. What about Bautista? I HAVE to keep him, don't I? And Wieters? If I let him go and he breaks out/becomes the next Buster Posey/Mike Piazza, I'll hate myself for not keeping that extra year where he exploded.

So your thoughts are more than welcomed. It's been driving me crazy the last few weeks and I know I'll have some pretty heart-breaking decisions to make. :-(

BTW, Werth went first overall last year after I let him go... ;-)

Captain Hook

Re: Keepers advice needed - 2011 UPDATE

#31 Post by Captain Hook »

Nafi wrote:Hello again! I'm here once more to get your valuable feedback as I'm faced with yet another keeper list issue! Please go back to the first post in this thread for my league's setup. It's hard to imagine I'd be faced with a bigger problem than last year's but I think it is. First, I'll start by announcing I placed first overall in 2010. Even though I kept Wieters over Werth! It started out downhill but I climbed back slowly to win it all by season's end. So onto my problem: I have to keep 7 players. My first 3 are no-brainers.

-Pujols
-Halladay
-Crawford

Nuff Said.

The next 4 are harder to decide on (I still have a month to decide)... Here's the better part of my 2010 roster. I've put them in order of preference to make my keeper list as of right now with a little insight into each player and his relation with me :-)

-Teixeira (I can't even believe he's not in my no-brainer list... but look below and you will understand why)
-Dan Haren (inconsistent but on-par with my expectations)
-Pedroia (injury ridden year, but it's Pedroia)
-Max Scherzer (Worried I wasted a 4th rd pick on him when he was headed to the Minors, but absolutely loved him when he came back a few weeks later!)
-Jose Bautista (I drafted him on my bench, i.e. as my 7th OF in the 19th rd! Repeat? Unlikely. 35HR, more than likely and has 3B eligibility which is SWEET)
-Matt Wieters (2011 should be THE year he breaks out?)
-Joakim Soria (closer, no thanks)
-Jonathan O. Sanchez (got him via trade for Denard Span -my 1st rd pick- in June as I thought I needed help in pitching - glad I did)
-Colby Lewis (Drafted him as my next to last pitcher in th 15th rd.)
-Rickie Weeks (drafted in 2nd rd. and stepped up for me when Pedroia went down)
-Paul Konerko (I thought I HAD to draft him when he was still available in the 6th rd. - glad I did, but he's a DH and no place on my keeper list for that kind)

The thought of keeping 3 pitchers with 200K potential is enticing. But I'd have to give up Pedroia. What about Bautista? I HAVE to keep him, don't I? And Wieters? If I let him go and he breaks out/becomes the next Buster Posey/Mike Piazza, I'll hate myself for not keeping that extra year where he exploded.
First congratulations on winning last year.
Now on to this year and let's start with your last thought on Wieters........YOU either keep him because his contributions/price/profit will help you win - or you don't - anything else has NO part in your deliberation (see today's Captain's Log).


Okay, great start with Pujols, Halladay and Crawford - THREE first round players on your team.

Now for four more: here are the choices I see
-Teixeira
-Pedroia or Weeks
-Scherzer or Haren
-Jose Bautista

I hate Tex's slow starts but he would give you a tremendous power base

I would probably keep one or both second basemen but that means you should only keep Halladay and I am fine with that (otho I am fine with keeping one you think would help you in that league the most and then keepring a second SP)

Bautista is really unlikely to duplicate last year BUT third base is a land mine this year and it seems likely that in your league most of the good ones will be kept so I would defiitely keep him and his likely 35 home runs (it also gives you some position flexibility if you nail another 3B as a reserve or minor leaguer (Moustakas)

Now what do YOU think?

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#32 Post by Nafi »

Great piece you wrote there Captain. My deliberation has to do with the player's contribution, not only for the upcoming season, but for their careers as this is a dynasty league where keepers can be kept forever.

On Wieters... After fielding arguments on this forum last year at the same time period, I decided to keep Wieters over Werth. I was willing to take a chance on him producing somewhere down the road, be it in 1 or 2 years. I couldn't pass up the opportunity to lock up the next coming of Mike Piazza. Fast fwd a year: my gamble didn't pay off on Wieters right away, but that's OK as it was expected and I still won the pool so no harm done. Does he still have potential to be a stud catcher? What's the ceiling now that he has 1.5 years in the majors under the belt? .275-75-20-75? I'm trying to see if I should abandon the master plan of sticking with this stud prospect (at catcher) from a few years ago or if I should turn the page and move on to the next flavor of the day that can help me win this year.

Let's say for argument's sake that my first 6 keepers are: Pujols, Crawford, Halladay, Teixeira, Pedroia and Haren. The same core I had last year coming into the draft. The 7th spot would be Bautista right now. I'm thinking he can't repeat 50+ HR. But a .260-90-35-90 is possible with OF/3B eligibility to boot. I'd be crazy to spit on that. But his last season was such a huge jump statistically from his previous ones that it screams "BRADY ANDERSON!!!" to me and makes me want to keep someone else on the long list of potential keepers...

I guess I'm trying to see if you guys have any opinions on the players I listed here that can help me in my decision process.

Mickey4081

Re: Keepers advice needed

#33 Post by Mickey4081 »

Keep

Tex
Haren
Pedroia
and Bautista....are you really going to find a possible 40 hr threat playing 3rd base in the draft with 7 keepers?

I think you have 7 no-brainers here.

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#34 Post by Todd Zola »

Sorry, late to the dance.

Nafi, just a quick favor -- can we hold off on putting Piazza and Posey in the same sentence ;)

I wouldn't lose sleep over giving up the rights to Werth.

With a keeper list like that, I don't sweat not having a top catcher. With that foundation, you will always be able to pick up someone of decent quality in your draft.

That said, Wieters may still have some trade value and since you still have 7 outstanding freezes, is it possible to deal him for a draft pick upgrade?
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#35 Post by Nafi »

Less than a week to go before I have to submit my list, but I'm set. Thanks for all your comments! I'm going to keep : Pujols, Crawford, Doc, Tex, Ped, Haren and Jose A. Bautista.

I wish you all a great draft day!

SteveB
Major League All-Star
Posts: 327
Joined: January 1st, 2009, 4:28 am

Re: Keepers advice needed

#36 Post by SteveB »

Todd Zola wrote:
Nafi, just a quick favor -- can we hold off on putting Piazza and Posey in the same sentence

I was thinking the same thing i think Posey is much stronger defensively ;)

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#37 Post by Nafi »

Hi all! Looking for advice again on keepers by month's end. I'm in a 15 teams 5x5 mixed league. We have to keep 7 players and can keep an additional minor-leaguer. After I finished 4th in 2011, last year was my worst faring so far in our 15 year-old competitive league; I finished dead last. Mostly due to injuries to my key players. So I have a monumental rebuilding task this year as my keepers aren't getting younger. With that in mind, I drafted a lot of minor-leaguers last year for the inevitable rebuild. I'll also have the first pick this year and will likely get to pick up Chris Sale (that guy will keep Miggy Cabrera, Justin Upton, Freeman, A Gone, Strasburg, Medlen and Kershaw).

Here are my for-sure keeper choices:
1- Albert Pujols 1B LAA
2- Cliff Lee SP PHI (traded Teix away to net him a year ago)
3- Roy Halladay SP PHI (35 and it showed, still had 1.22 WHIP)
4- Jose Bautista OF TOR (sucks that he won't be eligible at the corners anymore)

My minor leaguer will be Oscar Taveras OF STL. No doubt.

And potential keepers with my thoughts on them atm:
* Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS (injuries are starting to scare me, but still puts up usual numbers)
Carl Crawford LF BOS (please don't make me keep him)
* Michael Bourne (my Crawford replacement)
* Dylan Bundy SP BAL (I'm betting on him being the next BIG thing and the core player of my rebulding process - he was called up and played, so doesn't qualify as minor leaguer anymore)
Jurickson Profar 2B TEX (1st overall prospect, but I don't see him being worth more than Bundy in the long run - he was called up and played, so doesn't qualify as minor leaguer anymore)
Dan Haren SP WAS (back and velocity concerns me so I give up on him for Bundy?)
Alexei Ramirez SS CHW (consistent numbers but little to no upside)

So there you have it. Right now, I'm leaning towards the starred guys above. Let me know what you think! Don't forget this is a dynasty league.

Captain Hook

Re: Keepers advice needed

#38 Post by Captain Hook »

Nafi wrote:Hi all! Looking for advice again on keepers by month's end. I'm in a 15 teams 5x5 mixed league. We have to keep 7 players and can keep an additional minor-leaguer. After I finished 4th in 2011, last year was my worst faring so far in our 15 year-old competitive league; I finished dead last. Mostly due to injuries to my key players. So I have a monumental rebuilding task this year as my keepers aren't getting younger. With that in mind, I drafted a lot of minor-leaguers last year for the inevitable rebuild. I'll also have the first pick this year and will likely get to pick up Chris Sale (that guy will keep Miggy Cabrera, Justin Upton, Freeman, A Gone, Strasburg, Medlen and Kershaw).

Here are my for-sure keeper choices:
1- Albert Pujols 1B LAA
2- Cliff Lee SP PHI (traded Teix away to net him a year ago)
3- Roy Halladay SP PHI (35 and it showed, still had 1.22 WHIP)
4- Jose Bautista OF TOR (sucks that he won't be eligible at the corners anymore)

My minor leaguer will be Oscar Taveras OF STL. No doubt.

And potential keepers with my thoughts on them atm:
* Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS (injuries are starting to scare me, but still puts up usual numbers)
Carl Crawford LF BOS (please don't make me keep him)
* Michael Bourne (my Crawford replacement)
* Dylan Bundy SP BAL (I'm betting on him being the next BIG thing and the core player of my rebulding process - he was called up and played, so doesn't qualify as minor leaguer anymore)
Jurickson Profar 2B TEX (1st overall prospect, but I don't see him being worth more than Bundy in the long run - he was called up and played, so doesn't qualify as minor leaguer anymore)
Dan Haren SP WAS (back and velocity concerns me so I give up on him for Bundy?)
Alexei Ramirez SS CHW (consistent numbers but little to no upside)

So there you have it. Right now, I'm leaning towards the starred guys above. Let me know what you think! Don't forget this is a dynasty league.
Your first four are fine - you NEED to keep them (for both possibilities)

Now on the other three choices .......my comments and then what I would do
Pedroia - no reason not to keep him
Crawford - trade or throw back
Bourne - I would trade him and either one below or one of first four for better keeper (for instance Bourne and Profar for X)
Alexei - throw back
Haren throw back

IMO YOU MUST keep both Bundy and Profar - we don't know how much they will help you this year but unless you can trade them for a much better keeper you can NOT rebuild without keeping STUD prospects

So absent any trades I would keep
1- Albert Pujols 1B LAA
2- Cliff Lee SP PHI
3- Roy Halladay SP PHI
4- Jose Bautista OF TOR
5 - Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
6 - Dylan Bundy, P, BAL
7 - Jurickson Profar, 2B, TEX

but I would certainly explore trade options to improve this list

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#39 Post by Nafi »

Thanks for the advice. I have a trade on the table for Bourn+Profar for Kinsler. Should I jump on it?

Nafi

Re: Keepers advice needed

#40 Post by Nafi »

Trade is done. Kinda like my team now with two middlemen going into the draft.

1- Albert Pujols 1B LAA
2- Cliff Lee SP PHI
3- Roy Halladay SP PHI
4- Jose Bautista OF TOR
5 - Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
6 - Dylan Bundy, P, BAL
7 - Ian Kinsler, 2B TEX
M- Oscar Taveras, OF STL

Captain Hook

Re: Keepers advice needed

#41 Post by Captain Hook »

Nafi wrote:Trade is done. Kinda like my team now with two middlemen going into the draft.

1- Albert Pujols 1B LAA
2- Cliff Lee SP PHI
3- Roy Halladay SP PHI
4- Jose Bautista OF TOR
5 - Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
6 - Dylan Bundy, P, BAL
7 - Ian Kinsler, 2B TEX
M- Oscar Taveras, OF STL
Looks Good

tylertoo

Re: Keepers advice needed

#42 Post by tylertoo »

Hello all. Seeking keeper advice on two separate Roto Leagues.

League One: Standard 5x5 Mixed League, auction draft w/$260. Three Keepers at twice their previous year's salaries. FA's claimed in FAAB are held at twice their FAAB auction price.

I'm keeping Trout and Harper each at $2 (I got both in the two-round reserve snake draft at the end of last year's auction :) ). Who's my third keeper?

Machado $2
B. Hamilton $2
Matt Harvey $2
Wade Miley $6
J. Zimmerman $18
Gio $22

Leaning toward Hamilton even if he doesn't get called up until Sept. (could be kept at $4 in '14).

League Two: 6x6 Mixed (standard categories + OBP and QS). Snake draft. Three keepers kept at their previous year's draft position, FAs kept at 23rd round (or prior rounds if multiple). Can't keep previous year's keepers.

Posey (4th round)
Utley (22nd round)
Adam Dunn (23rd round)
Machado FA
B. Hamilton FA
Altuve FA

Need three here. Leaning toward Utley, Dunn, Hamilton.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Captain Hook

Re: Keepers advice needed

#43 Post by Captain Hook »

LEAGUE ONE - I like the long term view on Billy Hamilton AS LONG AS you can easily replace him otherwise the roster spot is costing you


LEAGUE TWO - I don't understand your situation here (copying)

Posey (4th round)
Utley (22nd round)
Adam Dunn (23rd round)
Machado FA
B. Hamilton FA
Altuve FA

Need three here. Leaning toward Utley, Dunn, Hamilton

WHY wouldn't you keep your best players? IMO would be Posey, Altuve, and either Utley or Dunn

OR Keep the most valuable? IMO Altuve and two of Utley/Dunn/Machado

I think you should be keeping Altuve

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Keepers advice needed

#44 Post by Todd Zola »

tylertoo wrote:Hello all. Seeking keeper advice on two separate Roto Leagues.

League One: Standard 5x5 Mixed League, auction draft w/$260. Three Keepers at twice their previous year's salaries. FA's claimed in FAAB are held at twice their FAAB auction price.

I'm keeping Trout and Harper each at $2 (I got both in the two-round reserve snake draft at the end of last year's auction :) ). Who's my third keeper?

Machado $2
B. Hamilton $2
Matt Harvey $2
Wade Miley $6
J. Zimmerman $18
Gio $22

Leaning toward Hamilton even if he doesn't get called up until Sept. (could be kept at $4 in '14).

League Two: 6x6 Mixed (standard categories + OBP and QS). Snake draft. Three keepers kept at their previous year's draft position, FAs kept at 23rd round (or prior rounds if multiple). Can't keep previous year's keepers.

Posey (4th round)
Utley (22nd round)
Adam Dunn (23rd round)
Machado FA
B. Hamilton FA
Altuve FA

Need three here. Leaning toward Utley, Dunn, Hamilton.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.
1. Machado or Harvey. You obviously have a liking for owning the next big thing and it paid off with Trout and Harper - quit while you're (WAYYYY) ahead. You don't need Hamilton's steals to win - in fact many will find it is going to hurt them from a fantasy sense and not help. Guessing mine won't be the popular view - your team, your call.

2. In a 2-catcher league, Posey no doubt. Without knowing how many teams in the league it's hard to tell otherwise. But again, you don't need Hamilton. I'd MUCH prefer Altuve.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

tylertoo

Re: Keepers advice needed

#45 Post by tylertoo »

Gentlemen, thanks for the quick replies.
Captain Hook wrote:LEAGUE TWO - I don't understand your situation here (copying)

Posey (4th round)
Utley (22nd round)
Adam Dunn (23rd round)
Machado FA
B. Hamilton FA
Altuve FA

Need three here. Leaning toward Utley, Dunn, Hamilton

WHY wouldn't you keep your best players? IMO would be Posey, Altuve, and either Utley or Dunn

OR Keep the most valuable? IMO Altuve and two of Utley/Dunn/Machado

I think you should be keeping Altuve
I take it what you mean is by 'don't understand' is why keep Hamilton if I can't keep him beyond '13. Good point. Wasn't thinking that through, I guess, plus I'm in love with the idea of him winning SB all by himself ;). I'll go with one of your suggestions instead, probably Altuve/Utley/Machado. Thanks again.
Todd Zola wrote:1. Machado or Harvey. You obviously have a liking for owning the next big thing and it paid off with Trout and Harper - quit while you're (WAYYYY) ahead. You don't need Hamilton's steals to win - in fact many will find it is going to hurt them from a fantasy sense and not help. Guessing mine won't be the popular view - your team, your call.

2. In a 2-catcher league, Posey no doubt. Without knowing how many teams in the league it's hard to tell otherwise. But again, you don't need Hamilton. I'd MUCH prefer Altuve.
Thanks Todd. Both are ten teams mixed, with two catchers. I'll give keeping Posey more thought.

Enjoy hearing you on the Baseball HQ podcast!

BloodStripes

Re: Keepers advice needed

#46 Post by BloodStripes »

Hello everyone. Just started my subscription. What a great site. May as well use it to the fullest with a question.

12 Team 6 x 6 roto. Total Bases and Holds the extras.

Get to keep 6 players.

There are no pitchers worth keeping. One catcher league but there are 3 to choose from. Don't know why I just inherited the team.

I was going to choose my 6 from the following hitters:

Adam Jones
Jay Bruce
Brett Lawrie
Carlos Santana
Asdrubal Cabrera

Yadier Molina
Jose Altuve
Nelson Cruz
Konerko
Hosmer
Ethier
Sal Perez

I'm thinking the top 5 I listed then either Altuve or Cruz. Add Cruz maybe to go with a full OF with pop? (Yahoo league, 3 OF)

Or Altuve for the speed and fill 2B?

Who would be your 6?

Would appreciate any input.

Thank you

Captain Hook

Re: Keepers advice needed

#47 Post by Captain Hook »

Interesting .......short on time this morning but first thoughts are

1) Altuve definitely needs to be one of your keepers (as you said both pos/sb considerations)

2) After you do keepers is it a live draft or auto draft?
I hate Yahoo auto drafts but would keep a C if that was the case.
In a regular draft where there are only twelve C drafted it might be right to keep a better player and then just get one of your catchers back .... BUT while Santana teases with the HR breakout, Molina has higher value (but that is on 5 cats would have to re-run with TB added)

Let me know regular draft or auto draft and Todd will weigh in next week, he is on First Pitch tour this weekend.

BloodStripes

Re: Keepers advice needed

#48 Post by BloodStripes »

Thanks Captain. Will keep Altuve.

Draft is live

Post Reply