Game Strategy

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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Re: Game Strategy

#21 Post by Guest »

Will - we're not real fans of the "shroud" mentality (not that you were implying it). These boards work best when the entire community can participate.

What I tend to do is take message board material and test it into site pieces (The league differences article being an example). I'd like to think the premium content is well worth it regardless of what is posted here.

In projection conversations I think its valuable to get everyone's input into the players being discussed - we have always said if subscribers have issues with info given away they should PM us and we'll work it out to their satisfaction.

I am going to piggyback TZ's comments here - There are two kinds of scarcity - one is where literally there are not enough players at the position (or the last players at the position are complete junk). The second is scarcity of players you like.

One thing I do with the tiers (I just excel sort our projections) is I print them and highlight the guys I "like" - purely subjective in nature, completely ignoring the objective projections. The more highlighted names, the less scarcity at the position. There might only be 4 3B I would want to own but 8 SS. Well, 3B is more scarce for me in my league.

Todd and I have had this conversation in the past, that I tend to think there is something fundamentally wrong with discussing position scarcity in terms of the last player rosterable. Position scarcity to me is much more the quality of the position up and down. We simply quantify that quality in terms of comparison to last drafted player.

Once I am done with the stuff I need to get out the door I am going to mess around with this and see what I can effort in this area.

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Re: Game Strategy

#22 Post by WillRoy »

The second is scarcity of players you like.

One thing I do with the tiers (I just excel sort our projections) is I print them and highlight the guys I "like" - purely subjective in nature, completely ignoring the objective projections. The more highlighted names, the less scarcity at the position. There might only be 4 3B I would want to own but 8 SS. Well, 3B is more scarce for me in my league.
That's a GREAT idea Gary! This alludes to (for me at least) another problem with generalizing the player pool objectively... I'm not always able to roster guys I like or I feel will break out. What sometimes happens is I get great values but miss the breakouts I Predicted (Greinke and McLouth for recent failures/successes) and especially the man-crushes. Sometimes it can be frustrating enough to want to trade for the guys I missed even though I've got great bargains.

For example, one three-step process I used to use (more complicated but still) was create an auction strategy/use BP projections/Check out other sources and ADP's/AAP's to get a general idea of the game within the game (Metagame might be the term I'm looking for). I would customize it certainly for guys I like and put targets I'd go the extra buck or round for. But most of the time I wouldn't get them anyways. Sometimes the guys I like (as I'm sure happens with most of us) are obvious non-sleepers like Wieters/Upton.

I'm gonna try that idea based on my own criteria and subjective viewpoint and see what I come up with. Thanks!
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Re: Game Strategy

#23 Post by Todd Zola »

Tiering is something that has come up several times in this thread and I am a HUGE fan of the process. Last season, after the LABR draft which I did in early March, the only thing I had with me is our ranking in terms of tiers. I consider all players within each tier to be the same value, regardless if they are $19 or $16, $34 or $31. Anything within $5 is the same for me. I would then use my team needs in terms of stats and position along with what I feel I can get in later rounds in my drafts or auctions. I was NEVER more comfortable than I was last spring and not-so-humbly, the results reflected that.

Much like the benefits of the Mayberry Method are intuitive to me, doing what Gary suggests, highlighting "my guys" is also intuitive. But it damn well should be after the mocks, projections and profiles I do :lol: 8-)
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Re: Game Strategy

#24 Post by Todd Zola »

now with respect to Gary's comment on scarcity -- I agree 100%.

In the day, when I was the "value guy", I had to approach things in a different manner, partly in order to build and develop a certain reputation, leading to a certain level of credibility and respect.

Now, I don't want to be known as the "value guy". I want to be known as part of a group of fantasy players that do a great job of taking the plethora of information out there, filtering and chunking it for you, in an effort to make YOU a better fantasy gamer. Some of this information is the RAW value of players as discussed. SOME. Not ALL.

Call it what you want, strength of position, positional drop off, whatever, all these other connotations of scarcity that cannot be easily QUANTIFIED are integral to being a better player. An example is based on the early mocks. This going to be part of the weekend's worth of Platinum material, but what the hey....

Because of the way others value players and deal with scarcity, I have found the best players on my board between rounds 3-6 mostly outfielders -- most at a pretty big profit. That is, when I have pick 40 in the 3rd round of a 15-teamer, there are OF in the top-30. When I have pick 50, many top-40 are available, etc.

So the "strategy" is to try to avoid taking OF in the first 2 rounds, make sense?

But you also do not want to leave too much value on the table, if the best player is an OF, well...

here's teh thing.

In teh 2010 player pool, after a clearly defined top 3 (Pujols, Hanley, Braun), the next set of players are as close in value as I have EVER EVER seen. So just because an OF is "next", it is just fine to skip him and go to the 3B or 2B or SS. You are not leaving any profit on the table and you can use that OF spot to attain profit later.

To me, this is a form of "scarcity", even if it is the opposite and can be called "abundance".

I have also noted I am not at all happy with the 3B pool, so if at all possible, I will take a 3B early. In fact, in a recent mag mock, I started with Longoria, Wright and Sandoval (who also plays 1B). I got all the players without reaching and induced a real shortage at 3B.

There are other spots in the draft where there are a bunch of SS and a bunch of 2B I like. Assuming I don't get them early, I will aim for one at that spot. Say this is round 8/9. If teh top guy on my board is a 2B in round 6 and there is someone else of almost equal value at another position, I will bypass the 2B in R6 and take one in R8 or R9. Again, this can be considered a strategy based on a form of "scarcity."
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Game Strategy

#25 Post by WillRoy »

That makes sense. However, how would you translate those "Round-based-positional-bargains" (What I mean is what you described: bargains at certain rounds for certain positions that are waiting for you assuming you didn't already draft some, as in Outfielders for rounds 3-6) into Auction lingo/Strategy?

My brain generally works rapid-fire with ideas but the part that has me confused is: If everyone can bid on every player (assuming they have the $ left) how can I use those: "RBPB's" to my advantage in my auction leagues?
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Re: Game Strategy

#26 Post by JP Kastner »

What makes this such a fun place is that we even disagree.

I'm from the Benchmark School. I set a target to come in third place in every category. I look at last years results and figure out what it would take to get to get third place in that category. If I need 290 HR to come in third, then I'm aiming for 290. Any money beyond first place is wasted. If during the draft it looks like the benchmarks are wrong, then I adjust on the fly.

Once the season starts, I'm tracking where third place is in each category and adjusting as necessary.

The reason I'm not a big fan of Tiers and the MM is that it is difficult to track what you have and what you need.


JP

ps. By the way Todd, thanks for noticing my weight loss and muscle gain. The scouting report on me is "lost probably forty pounds of fat and replaced it with 20 pounds of muscle. Expect a softball power spike in 2010." 45 home runs is a stretch, though.

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Re: Game Strategy

#27 Post by Todd Zola »

Lots to comment upon here, I'll break each thought into separate threads....
WillRoy wrote:That makes sense. However, how would you translate those "Round-based-positional-bargains" (What I mean is what you described: bargains at certain rounds for certain positions that are waiting for you assuming you didn't already draft some, as in Outfielders for rounds 3-6) into Auction lingo/Strategy?

My brain generally works rapid-fire with ideas but the part that has me confused is: If everyone can bid on every player (assuming they have the $ left) how can I use those: "RBPB's" to my advantage in my auction leagues?
What I do in an auction is pre-designate how much I want to spend for each roster spot. Here is an example. I'd like to spend 195 on hitting and 65 on pitching.

C 3
C 2
1B 35
2B 15
3B 15
SS 25
CI 12
MI 2
OF 40
OF 25
OF 15
OF 2
OF 2
UT 2

P 15
P 15
P 12
P 10
P 8
P 2
P 1
P 1
P 1
P 1

I don't do this willy-nilly, I do this based on my tiers. I find pockets of value of pockets of guys I like and assign the slots accordingly. I am flexible and slide budget around as the auction progresses, but the parallel means of using tiers in an auction is considering all 3B $12-$18 for the $15 3B line. All OF $22-$28 for the $25 OF line. If I take an OFy at $22, I add $3 to another line. If I take him at $28, i subtract $3.

However, if I KNOW I can get a bargain to fill my $15 2B line because I have a bunch of guys valued in that area and no doubt one will come below value, I do my best to leave the 2B position open.

If the bidding for Utley stops well under my value, shoot, I'm bidding. But if I have him at 39 and the bidding is 37, I'll let it go.

This is what happened to me at NL Tout Wars as the bidding stopped for Adrian Gonzales well below my price, but I did not have a 1B line that high. I won the bid and adjusted my other lines accordingly.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Game Strategy

#28 Post by WillRoy »

I wonder if an Excel spreadsheet can handle that sort of position based max-bids and adjustments if I were to input my max bid for each position.. Maybe that's what the CVRC is for...?
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Re: Game Strategy

#29 Post by Todd Zola »

JP Kastner wrote:
Once the season starts, I'm tracking where third place is in each category and adjusting as necessary.

The reason I'm not a big fan of Tiers and the MM is that it is difficult to track what you have and what you need.
.
Here is where I disagree. Tracking totals and using tiers are not mutually exclusive at all, in fact, it is a darned good idea to do both.

But here is why I did not mention target drafting and will follow a theme of this thread and also help amplify why the merger is such a good thing.

Long time MB readers know we were the first to publish targets and discuss it. Not saying we INVENTED it, not by a longshot, just saying that several years ago, we started tracking average league standings to determine targets.

i too am a target drafter, but over the years have become looser and looser with the process -- because of the intuitive nature I do things as talked about earlier. Not saying I am "better" than anyone else because of this, just saying it happens to be true and since it is, I may as well use it to my advantage, but after doing so many mocks, profiles and player analysis each Nov-March, by the time the "real" drafts and auctions come around, I can sense my category placement intuitively.

I don't say I am 35 SB short, I say I need a speed guy.

I don't say I am 40 HR short, I say I need power.

Again, not suggesting this for anyone. If it is not intuitive, then by all means track the categories more stringently. The root of my drafting is based on targets, just not aiming towards a specific number.

This is why the merger is so perfect as it got to a point I was not able to "relate" to all the different types of customers we attract. The addition of JP, Lawr, Brian and the return of Rob along with Gary and myself and we have all the based covered. Some of you will read my stuff and say blech, when is Rob posting again? Some will be counting the minutes to the next piece comes out.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Game Strategy

#30 Post by viper »

great stuff. I get a sense that the 2010 fantasy baseball discussion season has just begun.
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Re: Game Strategy

#31 Post by Todd Zola »

WillRoy wrote:I wonder if an Excel spreadsheet can handle that sort of position based max-bids and adjustments if I were to input my max bid for each position.. Maybe that's what the CVRC is for...?
Sorry, missed this.

This is the sort of thinking I aim to get people to avoid -- I don't think you should have a preset MAX BID. You should have an idea of what in a vacuum the player is worth. The CVRC or our dollar value sheets will do that. You should have an idea how the player's value compared to other players, both at the same position and other positions. You have that. You should have an idea of the specific contributions a player provides (MM?). Again, ding ding, you have that.

The rest is based on draft and/or auction dynamics.

Obviously, I am not paying $45 for Alex Cora.

But to pre-designate a max bid keeps me too focused on trying to make sure I acquire as many players below my "max bid", which on the surface seems like what you want to do but in fact is not nearly as important as the overall construction and balance of your team.

Here is a practical example of how one may not see the forest through the trees if they are too focused on values, max bid, etc.

AL only league,

Jacoby Ellsbury is on the table. Based on our projections, his max bid is $35 (making it up).

if you rely too much on max bids, etc, when he gets to $31, you are going to bid him up because he is below your max bid.

Maybe you get him for $33 or $34.

But you know what?

You are going to be pissed off when Rajai Davis or Juan Pierre or another Sb specialist goes for $5 or $6 under value in the $20 range. You look after the draft and say I could have had Miguel Cabrera and Juan Pierre and instead I have Jacoby Ellsbury and Billy Butler, something like that.

The less values become a red light/green light device and more a suggestion, the better off you are.

Setting a max bid is setting a red light.

Instead, pick out a speedster. If you think you want Ellsbury, use Carl Crawford - or vice versa. Put their name out for auction. Gauge what people are playing for speedsters. If the price stops well below your raw value, get him. But if it is close figure you can get other speed at or below raw value. Of course, don't get caught chasing the last SB guy or you will get caught paying an inflated price.

I do this with closers all the time.

Say I want to pay $20 for my closer. I'll throw out Joe Nathan or Mo, figuring they go for over $20 -- but how much? If they stop at $24, I am going to likely throw out another top one next time and get him for $22 or $23. That's only $2 more and I can adjust another line as described earlier. If they go for $32, I know I better grab the first real closer that comes out and stops near $20.

I did this 2 years ago in the NFBC - throwing Billy Wagner out in the NL only league figuring he would go for well more than $20. I bid it up to $20 and crickets -- he was mine.

In the name of full disclosure, I failed to account for the fact he got hurt at the end of the previous season so some were concerned and downgraded him.

And to complete the story, he did indeed get hurt again at the end of 2008. But I won anyway :)
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Game Strategy

#32 Post by WillRoy »

Do you mean max bids for specific players? I meant max bids for certain positions. Within the draft, these are of course adjustable.

For example: One strategy I used that I will likely improve based on what has been said about positional /favorites tiers is setting up max bids for each position. I don't mean that I can only bid up to 30 for Justin upton. But I do mean that if I put in: 40 for OF1, 25 OF2 20 OF3, etc... that I should aim to spend within those limits.

Here's the other thing, In my eleven or 12 years doing fantasy baseball, though you and I (and based on your job, emphasis on you) may have an exemplary grasp of the player pool, I feel that it helps someone such as myself to establish stricter strategies to stay organized and meet whatever goals that auction involves, be they categorical/value oriented/names of players. Indeed, I know the pool well but may not be able to think of every one of those factors (as well as and especially the budget) within the auction without some strict preparation.

I guess that's the human element at work. Honestly, I don't think in ten more years I would be comfortable with my results at an auction without setting up somewhat rigid guidelines for it. Maybe it's the Hunter/Farmer ADD thing.

There have been times where I've adjusted the strategy mid-draft and especially the max-bids for certain positions. Honestly, though the more someone like myself tends to switch gears, the more focus I lose. I guess it's a matter for me of cost/benefit. Especially if the strategy has some overarching post-auction element (as many do in-season).

Salary-caps or slow-auctions where people can pick up and have ample time to dissect opponents and firmly adjust their strategies may be a separate case.
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Re: Game Strategy

#33 Post by Todd Zola »

WillRoy wrote:Do you mean max bids for specific players? I meant max bids for certain positions. Within the draft, these are of course adjustable.
We may be juxtaposing a few thoughts at this point.

The CVRC takes our projections and produces dollar values and rankings employing our valuation methodology using your league parameters. You can customize the number of teams, the categories (to a certain extent), AL or NL only, and the number and type of positions. You can't tell it "give me values if my max bid for an OF is 40." It gives you values and you have to decide who you can reasonably get for $40.

I described earlier that I use the same bid line method of organizing my auction. I won't repeat it.

We'll have the CVRC available in less than 24 hours. Please feel free to open a thread in the site tools forum for any questions you have about its use. There are some primers we include with it to help use it.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Game Strategy

#34 Post by WillRoy »

Whoops. May have misread something here or there...Counted 2 posts where you may have answered one of my earlier questions (Thus the max bid confusion and restatement...). :lol:

I'll check out the CVRC. I think part of the brainfart may have to do with lacking the actual tool that has been brought up.
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