Zero-sum economy

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Cavegoats

Zero-sum economy

#1 Post by Cavegoats »

I play in an NL only 11 team 5x5 league $260 cap. Based on last year's auction results I'm ranking 150 hitters and 103 pitchers at a 60/40 ratio.

I followed the valuation process outlined on this site. I started with my pitchers and the total value of the 103 pitchers in the positive player pool came out to $718. However, the money I have allotted for pitchers is $1144. This discrepancy is because every starting pitcher has negative replacement values in the S and HD categories while every relief pitcher has negative WQS (Wins + Quality Starts) replacement values. (The other two categories are ERA and WHIP). How can I remedy this situation so that I have a zero-sum economy with the sum of my positive player pool totaling $1144? Should I just multiply every pitcher's value by 1144/718 to make up the difference?

For instance/another issue, Jameson Taillon is worth $3.84 in WQS, but loses $2.79 of that because he will not be earning any HD or S this year. Then because his ERA and WHIP are slightly above baseline (multiplied by 163 innings), his overall value comes out to -($2.82), but he will of course be valuable in my league. Meanwhile John Brebbia is valued at +$2.85 by virtue of putting up baseline HD and S while having a better than average WHIP and ERA over 44 IP, but he will certainly not be picked up in the auction. So even if I do just multiply by 1144/718, I'm still having an issue of too many relief pitchers and not enough starters in my positive player pool.

Any ideas for me?

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Todd Zola
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Re: Zero-sum economy

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

Without knowing exactly what you've done I can't say for sure, but the answer is not multiplying by that factor. There is something wrong with your setup.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Cavegoats

Re: Zero-sum economy

#3 Post by Cavegoats »

I followed the steps found here http://www.mastersball.com/products/Pla ... uation.pdf. Short of me sending you the EXCEL file I guess we'll never know what I messed up.

But at least theoretically, I'm confused as how the $1144 will all be accounted for in the positive player pool. My replacement values stabilized around 6.6 WQS, 9.8 HD, 0.9 S, -0.4 Extra ER, 1.1 Extra BB+H. So any 5th starter who will earn 7 or more WQS will have part of the WQS money (1/5 * 1144) allotted to him, but due to probably a 5.00 ERA will not be part of the positive player pool. Plus any reliever in the positive player pool with less than 7 WQS will carry a negative dollar amount in that category. How is the money lost from those back end starters and relievers brought back into the economy? Or am I doing something fundamentally wrong?

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Todd Zola
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Re: Zero-sum economy

#4 Post by Todd Zola »

I hesitate to do this, especially for a non-Platinum member since I can't do this for everyone -- but send your sheet to todd at mastersball dot com.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Todd Zola
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Re: Zero-sum economy

#5 Post by Todd Zola »

However, to answer your question, a pitcher can earn a positive amount in a category, but still be negative overall, while the total of that category remains correct.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Todd Zola
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Re: Zero-sum economy

#6 Post by Todd Zola »

Why 150 hitters, 103 pitchers and 60/40? You should be running numbers for exactly enough players to be on the active rosters.

What's the exact roster composition?

What are the exact five categories?

Thanks.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Cavegoats

Re: Zero-sum economy

#7 Post by Cavegoats »

We have a 23-man active roster: 13 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 5 OF) + 9 pitchers + either a U hitter or an extra pitcher. Based on last year's auction, 7 of the teams used a utility hitter while 4 chose a 10th pitcher. 11*13 + 7 = 150 hitters and 11*9 + 4 = 103 pitchers.

I summed the actual salaries spent on the opening day active roster for each team and 60% of the total $ went to hitters while 40% to pitchers. I know convention is 67/33 or 69/31, but I figured I'd go with how my league actually spends their money.

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Todd Zola
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Re: Zero-sum economy

#8 Post by Todd Zola »

One more - what are the exact categories?
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Cavegoats

Re: Zero-sum economy

#9 Post by Cavegoats »

WQS (wins + quality starts), WHIP, ERA, Holds, Saves

AVG, NetRn (Runs - HR), HR, RBI, SB

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Todd Zola
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Re: Zero-sum economy

#10 Post by Todd Zola »

Actually figured that out -- there was a column with another calculation that was throwing me.

Scoring that favors relievers requires some common sense/logic when setting replacement - getting there, been awhile since I did this :P
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Cavegoats

Re: Zero-sum economy

#11 Post by Cavegoats »

Probably that part where I summed the WQS + HD + S for the initial sort. There was something in the article about doing that (except the example was 4x4, so it said to do Wins + 2*Saves) so that the closers wouldn't get lost.

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Todd Zola
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Re: Zero-sum economy

#12 Post by Todd Zola »

Yeah, makes sense. My default sort to get things back in order is ERA, seems to work.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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