Splits: Spending vs Valuation

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)

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daweasle
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#11 Post by daweasle » March 9th, 2015, 11:58 am

One other thing to think about here and i am just playing devils advocate so bear with me thru my thought process.

1. The split whether 69/31 or 65/35 or whatever. Thats not a league driven number. Thats a number you derive and try to build a team with.

If you walk into a draft trying to match what everyone else is doing you might be guaranteeing yourself a 5th or 6th place finish but that doesnt pay the big bucks.

I set my values based on where i feel i'm strong. I feel a 70/30 split is fine and if i get way better hitting than everyone else because i spent too much on hitting then so be it. I will either dominate hitting or make in season trades to adjust as i see the standings start to take shape.

What i recommend is to not focus so much on the process of auction draft but to think --- what it will take to win your league by oct 1st.

The draft is important but its also equally(probably more) important to have pieces to trade as it is to build the perfect 67/33 split during the draft.

And if this is an nfbc league or some other league that allows no trades....this still applies.

At the end of the season if you have 13 more points in hitting than the second place team and 8 less points in pitching.....you get first place. You dont have to have a balanced team you just have to have a better team than the second place guy.

So many folks last couple years have been all about equality and giving money back to pitching. Its not necessary. You can still win a league with the LIMA plan or punting a category. I bet if youre in three leagues this year at least one of them will be won by someone who used an outside the box strategy. (Maybe 2)

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Todd Zola
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#12 Post by Todd Zola » March 9th, 2015, 12:15 pm

The split should be set at what you expect the league split to be.

if YOU want to go 80/20 or 60/40 -- that's fine, but DON'T adjust prices accordingly.

Simply spend 80% (or 60%) or you budget on hitting based on price set by the league split.

And -- don't be married to anything. Go with the flow. But you need a starting point and league expectations are the best place to start.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Skin Blues
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#13 Post by Skin Blues » March 7th, 2017, 5:10 pm

Bringing this back from the dead, but it's that month of the year when my mind is on valuation and there aren't a lot of venues to discuss things in this much detail.

I will say, first off, that I agree strongly with Todd's assertion that you need to match your values with your league's values in terms of H/P split. Even if you want to spend 80% of your money on hitting you need to set bid values that reflect what your league will do, maybe 68/32 or whatever. Otherwise, every single hitter will seem like a bargain and you won't know which ones to bid on until it's too late, and you won't win any pitchers at all until you panic once all of the $8+ guys have vanished, passing on what could have been a handful of $15 guys taht went a few bucks less than your actual value when the proper H/P split is applied.

Second of all, I am going to agree with Caught Looking that it is very important to get it right before the auction starts rather than adjusting as things progress. There is a big difference between 70/30 and 65/35 and it's valuable to be able to predict where it will settle in at. There is so much volatility in the first round or two of an auction that you can't really get a handle on where it will shake out so it is best to use historical trends. Sure, you might "only" be off by $3 on the top players, but thinking Trout is underbid by $3 and Kershaw's bidding is $3 too high becomes a $6 gap between two players who may have both sold exactly for market value. In a competitive auction, the vast majority of people will have dollar values projected to within a buck or two of each other. I know that for most of my auctions, the final bids for the first 20 minutes or so tend to end up within a dollar or two of my projected values for the majority of players. If you're systemically over-valuing pitchers/hitters relative to your league, all of the first dozen or so pitchers/hitters will be $2 above or below your values, and you don't know which ones are the real bargains or overpays until it's too late and you've either blown a lot of your budget too early or saved up more money than you can wisely spend.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

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Todd Zola
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#14 Post by Todd Zola » March 7th, 2017, 5:22 pm

Best advice I can give is neither projection theory nor valuation processes exact enough to let $2 or $3 influence what you're looking to do - big picture. Honestly, there's no difference between 65/35 and 70/30 from a practical POV.

I've been saying this for a year now, the deeper I understand projections and valuation, and you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone that understands them as well as I do, the more I realize what to do with them far outweighs their generation. It took me 30-something years to finally get here.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Skin Blues
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#15 Post by Skin Blues » March 7th, 2017, 5:53 pm

I guess a lot of it has to do with personal style, as well. I tend to stick to my numbers more than most and am kind of forced to be proactive rather than reactive in that sense, avoiding early trends that I think will level out. Being systematically off by a few dollars on every hitter or pitcher has really hurt my success in the past, as well as not allocating enough money to the top-end guys. Because of that I do a lot of over-thinking to fine-tune the dollar values, pushing more money to the early rounds, adjusting by position/category, etc. I think over the past 5 years with the advent of such easy access to good, free projections and dollar value calculators, a lot of the value in sticking strictly to projections is lost since everybody is doing it.

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Todd Zola
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#16 Post by Todd Zola » March 7th, 2017, 6:20 pm

Maybe style, or maybe coming to grips with the static number isn't nearly accurate enough to stick to.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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