Splits: Spending vs Valuation

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)

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Caught Looking
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Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#1 Post by Caught Looking » January 28th, 2015, 1:12 pm

Ok... so what do you do if your league spends differently than you assign value?

For example, if you assign values based on a 69/31 split yet your league spends at a 65/35 rate? Obviously your hitter prices will be high and every hitter will seem like a bargain. Meanwhile you'll get priced out of most of the pitching until you're taking lower end guys or overpaying for middle tier to spend you money.

What do you do to avoid having a weak pitching staff?

Thanks to all in advance for your input
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Todd Zola
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#2 Post by Todd Zola » January 28th, 2015, 4:08 pm

Sounds like you're far too married to an arbitrary number. Bid values shouldn't be stop/go but just a piece of the puzzle to mesh with market dynamics.

That said...

1 - technically should match you league's tendencies

2- the difference between 69/31 and 65/35 is moot -- the differences are within the range of how you should view the price.
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#3 Post by Caught Looking » January 29th, 2015, 12:15 pm

First... how do I quote a previous posting by using that bubble/highlight thing you guys do? Thanks

Ok I hear ya on the numbers... they provide a way to rank the players and compare them as opposed to being hard and fast numbers to live and die by but... when your values are considerably off (mostly on the high end) when the auction starts you could overspend badly on hitting and miss out on a pitching staff bc you were so excited by all the bargains early on not realizing they were going for market value. The 4% shift mostly affects the stars in my opinion.

1. so ok you are saying I should set the split at something closer to my league dynamics when setting values? actually my league has been right on the 67 /33 number a few years in a row.

2. how can you say 69 vs 65 is moot since like I said it would skew your opinion of hitters values during the first hour of the auction? and these days I think that's actually the most important bc people only think bargains come at the end of the draft when more than ever I throw out potential mid round targets early on to try and get them at a depressed price if stars are being "overpaid"
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#4 Post by Todd Zola » January 29th, 2015, 12:34 pm

Your opinion shouldn't be based on a number. It's so arbitrary. here's the comparison of 69/67/65 -- a $3 difference for Trout is the only real difference. And even that is nothing considering Trout is going for 40-something regardless and the question will be whether or not you want Trout - it's not going to be if you'll take him at $38 or whatever.

69 67 65
Trout, Mike $38 $36 $35
Altuve, Jose $32 $31 $30
Cabrera, Miguel $32 $31 $30
Ellsbury, Jacoby $30 $29 $28
Ramirez, Hanley $28 $27 $26
Cano, Robinson $28 $27 $26
Jones, Adam $27 $27 $26
Brantley, Michael $27 $26 $25
Reyes, Jose $27 $26 $25
Beltre, Adrian $26 $25 $25
Martinez, Victor $26 $25 $24
Donaldson, Josh $25 $25 $24
Abreu, Jose $25 $24 $23
Encarnacion, Edwin $24 $24 $23
Bautista, Jose $24 $24 $23
Cespedes, Yoenis $24 $23 $22
Calhoun, Kole $24 $23 $22
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#5 Post by Todd Zola » January 29th, 2015, 12:35 pm

Caught Looking wrote:First... how do I quote a previous posting by using that bubble/highlight thing you guys do? Thanks

Ok I hear ya on the numbers... they provide a way to rank the players and compare them as opposed to being hard and fast numbers to live and die by but... when your values are considerably off (mostly on the high end) when the auction starts you could overspend badly on hitting and miss out on a pitching staff bc you were so excited by all the bargains early on not realizing they were going for market value. The 4% shift mostly affects the stars in my opinion.

1. so ok you are saying I should set the split at something closer to my league dynamics when setting values? actually my league has been right on the 67 /33 number a few years in a row.

2. how can you say 69 vs 65 is moot since like I said it would skew your opinion of hitters values during the first hour of the auction? and these days I think that's actually the most important bc people only think bargains come at the end of the draft when more than ever I throw out potential mid round targets early on to try and get them at a depressed price if stars are being "overpaid"
hit the quote button lower right to get this
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#6 Post by Todd Zola » January 29th, 2015, 12:39 pm

Caught Looking wrote:First... how do I quote a previous posting by using that bubble/highlight thing you guys do? Thanks

Ok I hear ya on the numbers... they provide a way to rank the players and compare them as opposed to being hard and fast numbers to live and die by but... when your values are considerably off (mostly on the high end) when the auction starts you could overspend badly on hitting and miss out on a pitching staff bc you were so excited by all the bargains early on not realizing they were going for market value. The 4% shift mostly affects the stars in my opinion.
To do it this way, I use copy/paste. Copy the [/quote] and put it at the end of the first part you want to quote.
1. so ok you are saying I should set the split at something closer to my league dynamics when setting values? actually my league has been right on the 67 /33 number a few years in a row.

2. how can you say 69 vs 65 is moot since like I said it would skew your opinion of hitters values during the first hour of the auction? and these days I think that's actually the most important bc people only think bargains come at the end of the draft when more than ever I throw out potential mid round targets early on to try and get them at a depressed price if stars are being "overpaid"
And for the second part, copy the
Caught Looking wrote: at the beginning and and make it
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#7 Post by Caught Looking » January 29th, 2015, 1:59 pm

Todd thanks for the help with learning the quote function

I see your point with not worrying too much about the final numbers... yea the dynamics of the auction and team-building strategies are obviously paramount once you have the players compared in some way that makes sense to you.

So why all the fuss across the industry about what is the proper splits if at the end of the day the difference in projected player values is pretty negligible?

I guess how you plan to budget your dollars for the auction is much more important than the underlying value splits. Having said that... how do you approach planning your expenditures in contrast to the expected league average? Wait hold that thought... if you don't mind I'll probably start a new thread for Auction Budget opinions and strategy. I read your essay once before in the archives so I'll refresh my memory from that before doing so.

Thanks Z

(must be nice to have a last name with such a dominant first initial... sure lends itself to many nicknames and derivations... wait.. I cant cant derivations off my mind... sorta like that James Taylor song... Going To Derivations In My Mind)
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#8 Post by Trav The Ump » January 30th, 2015, 11:44 pm

I'd agree with Todd, if your league gravitates towards a set ratio number every year that's a piece of information I would exploit at every turn I could make.

The other thing you said that struck me is that the first hour hitters go over and the late guys go under, I think that's a rather broad assumption. Each auction is individual, having participated in well over 50 live ones I don't think its prudent to walk into a room thinking well for the first hour guys will be overpriced. My suggestion would be to devise a draft strategy but understand it can be ripped up and thrown out after the first ten picks go. Also as much as Todd and the team do amazing work on making projections, valuations, summaries you are the one who knows your league. You have to take all that information and tailor it specifically for you. Than be able to recall it on the fly. Easy example, one guy in my league always tries to redraft guys he's had before. He just likes them. This allows me to push him an extra dollar or two simply because I know he'll go to at least last year's price. I know that because its my league and I've been in it 19 years. That doesn't show up in Todd's numbers. My league also gravitates pretty closely to 67/33. I actually have an excel sheet running for the picks that tracks where dollars are at for pitching and hitting during the auction. Than if the ratio is out of whack and I see a guy going under what my valuation says. I jump. Maybe those deals don't come at the end because everyone is hoarding money. You have to be willing to adjust and realizing after each pick the dynamics have changed.
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#9 Post by Caught Looking » February 1st, 2015, 1:37 am

Thanks for the input Trav...

sorry I did not mean to imply that I am assuming players would be overpriced the first hour... what i mean was that if i used for example a 69/31 split as my guideline while tweaking to come up with my auction values then before i realized that my hitters on the whole were going cheaper bc that is the league norm I might buy too many hitters thinking I was getting a good deal only to realize I had overvalued hitting and then was forced to cross my fingers and hope for good pitching values on the low end since my buying power would be diminished. that actually was the case last year ... it didnt bother me since i didnt like the prices for the SP market anyways however my staff ended up weak on the back end and with Sale missing 1 month... Cain blowing up...and smyly getting jerked around...and shelby miller pretty much disappointing all year i dug a hole i couldnt get out of fast enough.

this year i'll still be ready to act if theres a good deal early but my definition of a good deal is no longer 1 or 2 bucks under priced on a "star" player since thats too close of a margin unless said star is a target of mine.

My biggest dilemma this year is with Hanley.. i have keep him for 31 in a 14 team mixed with OBP but id have to cut either N Walker 3 or Smyly 5 and I know better than to ask anyone on this site if I should cut smyly :-) rproblem is tho that id only have 105 left but id havev all my star nucleus together... i just wouldnt be able to nab a mid priced sleeper guy like a 12 dollar Machado or Souza. my other 7 allowable keepers are Bautista 37, Donaldson20 , LaRoche 1, Puig 20, Gomez 30, Sale 18, Smyly 5 . with OBP Bautista is a stud.
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#10 Post by CubFan » February 2nd, 2015, 12:09 pm

You don't mention anything about draft inflation. Have you accounted for that as well? I highly suspect that's a huge part as to why hitters are going for more than what you have projected vs whether it's a 69/31 vs 65/35 split. Once you've factored in your inflation rate you'll have a value range for your hitters. Todd's analysis in the Platinum Plan does a good job of singling out who may be flying under the radar which can help you weed out some potentially good buys. If you opt to pass on hitters in that first hour you'll be left picking through a limited hitting pool and getting in a bidding war if anyone else in your league opted to go that route. While it's good to know what kind of spilt your league has I'll caution not to get caught up in that during the auction. Best to have a couple of strategies to use as plan A rarely goes according to plan.
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