Splits: Spending vs Valuation

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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UncleBill
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Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#1 Post by UncleBill »

Ok... so what do you do if your league spends differently than you assign value?

For example, if you assign values based on a 69/31 split yet your league spends at a 65/35 rate? Obviously your hitter prices will be high and every hitter will seem like a bargain. Meanwhile you'll get priced out of most of the pitching until you're taking lower end guys or overpaying for middle tier to spend you money.

What do you do to avoid having a weak pitching staff?

Thanks to all in advance for your input

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Todd Zola
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

Sounds like you're far too married to an arbitrary number. Bid values shouldn't be stop/go but just a piece of the puzzle to mesh with market dynamics.

That said...

1 - technically should match you league's tendencies

2- the difference between 69/31 and 65/35 is moot -- the differences are within the range of how you should view the price.
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UncleBill
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#3 Post by UncleBill »

First... how do I quote a previous posting by using that bubble/highlight thing you guys do? Thanks

Ok I hear ya on the numbers... they provide a way to rank the players and compare them as opposed to being hard and fast numbers to live and die by but... when your values are considerably off (mostly on the high end) when the auction starts you could overspend badly on hitting and miss out on a pitching staff bc you were so excited by all the bargains early on not realizing they were going for market value. The 4% shift mostly affects the stars in my opinion.

1. so ok you are saying I should set the split at something closer to my league dynamics when setting values? actually my league has been right on the 67 /33 number a few years in a row.

2. how can you say 69 vs 65 is moot since like I said it would skew your opinion of hitters values during the first hour of the auction? and these days I think that's actually the most important bc people only think bargains come at the end of the draft when more than ever I throw out potential mid round targets early on to try and get them at a depressed price if stars are being "overpaid"

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#4 Post by Todd Zola »

Your opinion shouldn't be based on a number. It's so arbitrary. here's the comparison of 69/67/65 -- a $3 difference for Trout is the only real difference. And even that is nothing considering Trout is going for 40-something regardless and the question will be whether or not you want Trout - it's not going to be if you'll take him at $38 or whatever.

69 67 65
Trout, Mike $38 $36 $35
Altuve, Jose $32 $31 $30
Cabrera, Miguel $32 $31 $30
Ellsbury, Jacoby $30 $29 $28
Ramirez, Hanley $28 $27 $26
Cano, Robinson $28 $27 $26
Jones, Adam $27 $27 $26
Brantley, Michael $27 $26 $25
Reyes, Jose $27 $26 $25
Beltre, Adrian $26 $25 $25
Martinez, Victor $26 $25 $24
Donaldson, Josh $25 $25 $24
Abreu, Jose $25 $24 $23
Encarnacion, Edwin $24 $24 $23
Bautista, Jose $24 $24 $23
Cespedes, Yoenis $24 $23 $22
Calhoun, Kole $24 $23 $22
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#5 Post by Todd Zola »

Caught Looking wrote:First... how do I quote a previous posting by using that bubble/highlight thing you guys do? Thanks

Ok I hear ya on the numbers... they provide a way to rank the players and compare them as opposed to being hard and fast numbers to live and die by but... when your values are considerably off (mostly on the high end) when the auction starts you could overspend badly on hitting and miss out on a pitching staff bc you were so excited by all the bargains early on not realizing they were going for market value. The 4% shift mostly affects the stars in my opinion.

1. so ok you are saying I should set the split at something closer to my league dynamics when setting values? actually my league has been right on the 67 /33 number a few years in a row.

2. how can you say 69 vs 65 is moot since like I said it would skew your opinion of hitters values during the first hour of the auction? and these days I think that's actually the most important bc people only think bargains come at the end of the draft when more than ever I throw out potential mid round targets early on to try and get them at a depressed price if stars are being "overpaid"
hit the quote button lower right to get this
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Todd Zola
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#6 Post by Todd Zola »

Caught Looking wrote:First... how do I quote a previous posting by using that bubble/highlight thing you guys do? Thanks

Ok I hear ya on the numbers... they provide a way to rank the players and compare them as opposed to being hard and fast numbers to live and die by but... when your values are considerably off (mostly on the high end) when the auction starts you could overspend badly on hitting and miss out on a pitching staff bc you were so excited by all the bargains early on not realizing they were going for market value. The 4% shift mostly affects the stars in my opinion.
To do it this way, I use copy/paste. Copy the [/quote] and put it at the end of the first part you want to quote.
1. so ok you are saying I should set the split at something closer to my league dynamics when setting values? actually my league has been right on the 67 /33 number a few years in a row.

2. how can you say 69 vs 65 is moot since like I said it would skew your opinion of hitters values during the first hour of the auction? and these days I think that's actually the most important bc people only think bargains come at the end of the draft when more than ever I throw out potential mid round targets early on to try and get them at a depressed price if stars are being "overpaid"
And for the second part, copy the
Caught Looking wrote: at the beginning and and make it
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

UncleBill
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#7 Post by UncleBill »

Todd thanks for the help with learning the quote function

I see your point with not worrying too much about the final numbers... yea the dynamics of the auction and team-building strategies are obviously paramount once you have the players compared in some way that makes sense to you.

So why all the fuss across the industry about what is the proper splits if at the end of the day the difference in projected player values is pretty negligible?

I guess how you plan to budget your dollars for the auction is much more important than the underlying value splits. Having said that... how do you approach planning your expenditures in contrast to the expected league average? Wait hold that thought... if you don't mind I'll probably start a new thread for Auction Budget opinions and strategy. I read your essay once before in the archives so I'll refresh my memory from that before doing so.

Thanks Z

(must be nice to have a last name with such a dominant first initial... sure lends itself to many nicknames and derivations... wait.. I cant cant derivations off my mind... sorta like that James Taylor song... Going To Derivations In My Mind)

Trav The Ump

Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#8 Post by Trav The Ump »

I'd agree with Todd, if your league gravitates towards a set ratio number every year that's a piece of information I would exploit at every turn I could make.

The other thing you said that struck me is that the first hour hitters go over and the late guys go under, I think that's a rather broad assumption. Each auction is individual, having participated in well over 50 live ones I don't think its prudent to walk into a room thinking well for the first hour guys will be overpriced. My suggestion would be to devise a draft strategy but understand it can be ripped up and thrown out after the first ten picks go. Also as much as Todd and the team do amazing work on making projections, valuations, summaries you are the one who knows your league. You have to take all that information and tailor it specifically for you. Than be able to recall it on the fly. Easy example, one guy in my league always tries to redraft guys he's had before. He just likes them. This allows me to push him an extra dollar or two simply because I know he'll go to at least last year's price. I know that because its my league and I've been in it 19 years. That doesn't show up in Todd's numbers. My league also gravitates pretty closely to 67/33. I actually have an excel sheet running for the picks that tracks where dollars are at for pitching and hitting during the auction. Than if the ratio is out of whack and I see a guy going under what my valuation says. I jump. Maybe those deals don't come at the end because everyone is hoarding money. You have to be willing to adjust and realizing after each pick the dynamics have changed.

UncleBill
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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#9 Post by UncleBill »

Thanks for the input Trav...

sorry I did not mean to imply that I am assuming players would be overpriced the first hour... what i mean was that if i used for example a 69/31 split as my guideline while tweaking to come up with my auction values then before i realized that my hitters on the whole were going cheaper bc that is the league norm I might buy too many hitters thinking I was getting a good deal only to realize I had overvalued hitting and then was forced to cross my fingers and hope for good pitching values on the low end since my buying power would be diminished. that actually was the case last year ... it didnt bother me since i didnt like the prices for the SP market anyways however my staff ended up weak on the back end and with Sale missing 1 month... Cain blowing up...and smyly getting jerked around...and shelby miller pretty much disappointing all year i dug a hole i couldnt get out of fast enough.

this year i'll still be ready to act if theres a good deal early but my definition of a good deal is no longer 1 or 2 bucks under priced on a "star" player since thats too close of a margin unless said star is a target of mine.

My biggest dilemma this year is with Hanley.. i have keep him for 31 in a 14 team mixed with OBP but id have to cut either N Walker 3 or Smyly 5 and I know better than to ask anyone on this site if I should cut smyly :-) rproblem is tho that id only have 105 left but id havev all my star nucleus together... i just wouldnt be able to nab a mid priced sleeper guy like a 12 dollar Machado or Souza. my other 7 allowable keepers are Bautista 37, Donaldson20 , LaRoche 1, Puig 20, Gomez 30, Sale 18, Smyly 5 . with OBP Bautista is a stud.

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#10 Post by CubFan »

You don't mention anything about draft inflation. Have you accounted for that as well? I highly suspect that's a huge part as to why hitters are going for more than what you have projected vs whether it's a 69/31 vs 65/35 split. Once you've factored in your inflation rate you'll have a value range for your hitters. Todd's analysis in the Platinum Plan does a good job of singling out who may be flying under the radar which can help you weed out some potentially good buys. If you opt to pass on hitters in that first hour you'll be left picking through a limited hitting pool and getting in a bidding war if anyone else in your league opted to go that route. While it's good to know what kind of spilt your league has I'll caution not to get caught up in that during the auction. Best to have a couple of strategies to use as plan A rarely goes according to plan.
12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league. Using OBP, W+QS and S+1/2H

C - Garver $4
1B/3B - Torkelson $1, E. Durna $3 (??)
2B/SS - Royce Lewis $2, Story $13
OF - J Duran $11, Ward $7
UT -
SP - Hunter Brown $6, Ryan $22
RP - Fairbanks $6, Duran $16
Bench -

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#11 Post by daweasle »

One other thing to think about here and i am just playing devils advocate so bear with me thru my thought process.

1. The split whether 69/31 or 65/35 or whatever. Thats not a league driven number. Thats a number you derive and try to build a team with.

If you walk into a draft trying to match what everyone else is doing you might be guaranteeing yourself a 5th or 6th place finish but that doesnt pay the big bucks.

I set my values based on where i feel i'm strong. I feel a 70/30 split is fine and if i get way better hitting than everyone else because i spent too much on hitting then so be it. I will either dominate hitting or make in season trades to adjust as i see the standings start to take shape.

What i recommend is to not focus so much on the process of auction draft but to think --- what it will take to win your league by oct 1st.

The draft is important but its also equally(probably more) important to have pieces to trade as it is to build the perfect 67/33 split during the draft.

And if this is an nfbc league or some other league that allows no trades....this still applies.

At the end of the season if you have 13 more points in hitting than the second place team and 8 less points in pitching.....you get first place. You dont have to have a balanced team you just have to have a better team than the second place guy.

So many folks last couple years have been all about equality and giving money back to pitching. Its not necessary. You can still win a league with the LIMA plan or punting a category. I bet if youre in three leagues this year at least one of them will be won by someone who used an outside the box strategy. (Maybe 2)

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#12 Post by Todd Zola »

The split should be set at what you expect the league split to be.

if YOU want to go 80/20 or 60/40 -- that's fine, but DON'T adjust prices accordingly.

Simply spend 80% (or 60%) or you budget on hitting based on price set by the league split.

And -- don't be married to anything. Go with the flow. But you need a starting point and league expectations are the best place to start.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#13 Post by Skin Blues »

Bringing this back from the dead, but it's that month of the year when my mind is on valuation and there aren't a lot of venues to discuss things in this much detail.

I will say, first off, that I agree strongly with Todd's assertion that you need to match your values with your league's values in terms of H/P split. Even if you want to spend 80% of your money on hitting you need to set bid values that reflect what your league will do, maybe 68/32 or whatever. Otherwise, every single hitter will seem like a bargain and you won't know which ones to bid on until it's too late, and you won't win any pitchers at all until you panic once all of the $8+ guys have vanished, passing on what could have been a handful of $15 guys taht went a few bucks less than your actual value when the proper H/P split is applied.

Second of all, I am going to agree with Caught Looking that it is very important to get it right before the auction starts rather than adjusting as things progress. There is a big difference between 70/30 and 65/35 and it's valuable to be able to predict where it will settle in at. There is so much volatility in the first round or two of an auction that you can't really get a handle on where it will shake out so it is best to use historical trends. Sure, you might "only" be off by $3 on the top players, but thinking Trout is underbid by $3 and Kershaw's bidding is $3 too high becomes a $6 gap between two players who may have both sold exactly for market value. In a competitive auction, the vast majority of people will have dollar values projected to within a buck or two of each other. I know that for most of my auctions, the final bids for the first 20 minutes or so tend to end up within a dollar or two of my projected values for the majority of players. If you're systemically over-valuing pitchers/hitters relative to your league, all of the first dozen or so pitchers/hitters will be $2 above or below your values, and you don't know which ones are the real bargains or overpays until it's too late and you've either blown a lot of your budget too early or saved up more money than you can wisely spend.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#14 Post by Todd Zola »

Best advice I can give is neither projection theory nor valuation processes exact enough to let $2 or $3 influence what you're looking to do - big picture. Honestly, there's no difference between 65/35 and 70/30 from a practical POV.

I've been saying this for a year now, the deeper I understand projections and valuation, and you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone that understands them as well as I do, the more I realize what to do with them far outweighs their generation. It took me 30-something years to finally get here.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#15 Post by Skin Blues »

I guess a lot of it has to do with personal style, as well. I tend to stick to my numbers more than most and am kind of forced to be proactive rather than reactive in that sense, avoiding early trends that I think will level out. Being systematically off by a few dollars on every hitter or pitcher has really hurt my success in the past, as well as not allocating enough money to the top-end guys. Because of that I do a lot of over-thinking to fine-tune the dollar values, pushing more money to the early rounds, adjusting by position/category, etc. I think over the past 5 years with the advent of such easy access to good, free projections and dollar value calculators, a lot of the value in sticking strictly to projections is lost since everybody is doing it.

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Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

#16 Post by Todd Zola »

Maybe style, or maybe coming to grips with the static number isn't nearly accurate enough to stick to.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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