Timing Is Everything

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)

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Caught Looking
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Joined: December 30th, 2014, 10:52 am

Timing Is Everything

#1 Post by Caught Looking » January 19th, 2015, 2:24 pm

Todd & Everyone:

When looking at the adjustments made to value systems, regardless of which system, I was having the debate in my head of WHEN is the most appropriate time to make adjustments for Positional Scarcity. Before or After a player's value is calculated?

Should the hitters stats be valued by position (24 catchers, 12 1B, etc) before coming up with their value and then make your replacement level adjustment according to position?

Or should the hitters stats be valued based on the entire pool of starting players (ie 168 traditional) and then make your replacement level adjustment according to position?

I'm talking myself in circles coming up with reasons why both are correct so hopefully someone can help me make sense of this.
Player since '92...Junkie since '03 after attending Tout Wars

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Todd Zola
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Re: Timing Is Everything

#2 Post by Todd Zola » January 19th, 2015, 2:38 pm

The real answer to your question is neither but it's honestly not worth wasting brain cells.

The adjustment is made before assigning value. The question is if replacement is calculated based on the draft-worthy players as a total group or individual by category.

IT DOESN'T MATTER.

The final numbers are scaled to fit the zero-sum economy and are nearly identical either way.

Replacement is an arbitrary concept. There's no finite replacement pool. Different leagues have owners that use different strategies and vary in player evaluation so no two draft-worthy pools are alike.

Plus, not only are projections a guess, but by extension so is replacement.

There's so much variance that there is no perfectly correct replacement set. Convenience in terms of ease of calculation is the most important factor. There are approximately 1,864,353 things more relevant than a replacement set when it comes to putting together a roster.
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Caught Looking
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Posts: 33
Joined: December 30th, 2014, 10:52 am

Re: Timing Is Everything

#3 Post by Caught Looking » January 19th, 2015, 2:47 pm

Haha... do you have a link to the post with the other 1,864,353 items listed? THANKS!


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Player since '92...Junkie since '03 after attending Tout Wars

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