Mastersball Valuation Method

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)

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Todd Zola
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Re: Mastersball Valuation Method

#11 Post by Todd Zola » January 16th, 2015, 3:10 am

The manner I do the numbers is admittedly a concession to facilitate automated calculations but I can make an argument that different draft strategies may dictate players I rank outside of the draft-worthy pool are on some rosters.

I ran values the iterative way and this was and they were nearly identical -- not exact but certainly close enough to use.

As for testing and comparing projection systems I don't believe in it so I don't do it.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

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You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Caught Looking
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Re: Mastersball Valuation Method

#12 Post by Caught Looking » January 19th, 2015, 10:20 am

Morning Everyone

Todd can you explain how the iterative process works to arrive at the desired player pool?

You earlier pointed out the other two value systems (STD and SGP) ... what is it about PVM that you believe is a better way of assigning value to players? I was reading up on STD for Avg or Above Replacement over the weekend and they seem pretty logical. I dont know what the pitfall of using the Avg player vs Replacement would be though

How do you adjust for replacement level production in PVM?

I have a couple of game strategy stuff for auctions which i'm gonna start a new thread for...thanks already for your comments.
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Re: Mastersball Valuation Method

#13 Post by Todd Zola » January 19th, 2015, 11:04 am

Caught Looking wrote:Morning Everyone

Todd can you explain how the iterative process works to arrive at the desired player pool?

You earlier pointed out the other two value systems (STD and SGP) ... what is it about PVM that you believe is a better way of assigning value to players? I was reading up on STD for Avg or Above Replacement over the weekend and they seem pretty logical. I dont know what the pitfall of using the Avg player vs Replacement would be though

How do you adjust for replacement level production in PVM?

I have a couple of game strategy stuff for auctions which i'm gonna start a new thread for...thanks already for your comments.
With the FSTA meeting and traveling I'm about 5 days behind schedule. The best suggestion I can make is to look through the archives in Platinum -- it's all answered in there in various essays.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Caught Looking
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Re: Mastersball Valuation Method

#14 Post by Caught Looking » February 10th, 2015, 12:28 pm

Todd

Re: Composite Stats
with the PVM method...and I guess with all methods... is there anything that can be done to account for all the non-drafted stats that will be contributed? Naturally any method based on projections will have this issue if you're ranking the drafted player pool against one another such as with StdDev.

Maybe that is the biggest asset in using prior year standings as is done using SGP since it is attempting to measure how a player affects the composite standings.

Re: Replacement vs Avg
could you explain why most sites use value over replacement versus avg player? the idea of avg player seems a little wonky in general but I cant concretely dismiss it.

thoughts?
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Re: Mastersball Valuation Method

#15 Post by Todd Zola » February 10th, 2015, 12:47 pm

Gonna be honest -- you're nit picking things that aren't relevant. The number after the dollar sign is just a number -- it's not like PV=nRT -- you need to back off treating it as anything more than a small piece of the overall puzzle. It's not absolute -- the best use is comparing players on a relative basis.

if you're doing a draft based on stats that are in the book -- a retro draft -- then we'll get more specific.

But there's just so many factors that make any valuation system flawed it's not worth nit-picking over the equivalent of pennies.

It's so much better to spend time researching players and finding nuggets about each that are actionable and not trying to refine a dollar value to two decimal places.

Stepping outside the point I just made -- SGP has so many serious flaws that the notion of "perhaps the best thing about SGP" doesn't register with me.

I don't know that most sites use replacement over average -- and, I can't speak for them. That said, sticking to the absolute versus relative philosophy, either baseline ranks players relative to each other (as does SGP) so at the end of the day, they all accomplish what you want -- relative ranks.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Mastersball Valuation Method

#16 Post by Caught Looking » February 10th, 2015, 5:11 pm

Enjoy the LABR draft tonight...

putting relative player ranks aside... how are you approaching team assembly this year in terms of philosophy for mixed auctions?

seeing positions that are key to pay full price such as catcher? how much of an overpay are the top handful of players worth? (trout, Kershaw, etc) is it good to avoid spending on stars in the OF in particular bc of the depth of alternatives?

in general im looking at paying for catchers, one elite RP and wait for bargains on productive OF. otherwise flush out the infield and SP with balance and production.

should this be a new thread? thanks
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Re: Mastersball Valuation Method

#17 Post by Todd Zola » February 10th, 2015, 5:40 pm

Perry wrote up a 15-team auction he recently did and i believe Lawr, Perry and Pasko just did a mock-auction that they may write up.

I'll be doing a couple of 15-team mixers for the NFBC.

I'll likely look to spend a little early on foundation pieces while gauging the market on starting pitching. Depending where the prices of starters fall, I'll decide how to approach the staff, fully ready to wait and build it using several in the $12-$18 range.

There's no trading in the NFBC so I'll look for 2.5 closers, probably with two in the second tier.

Then it's just going with the flow.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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