Park Adjusting

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Skin Blues
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Park Adjusting

#1 Post by Skin Blues » December 30th, 2014, 12:32 am

I was reading over the projection process, and have a few questions. Specifically about how neutral projections are adjusted to a player's home team environment. I see that you point out they are adjusted for his home park, but what about adjusting for home division? Such as, the quality of hitting/pitching that the other team's in the division have, and the types of parks they'll play in on the road. Since we have the schedule already for 2015 we can get an exact idea of every park a player will play in for 2015, and weight it precisely. Maybe if this is looked at on the whole, it is insignificant. It averages out that all road games are generally the same. But are there certain teams where it is significant?

For example, lets think about a pitcher for the Rays. He has a great defense, a great home park, and everything looks peachy. But he also faces four of the highest scoring offenses in the league 19 times per year, and half of those games are in moderate to extreme hitters parks. Boston, Toronto, Baltimore and New York are projected to rank 1st, 2nd, 6th, 9th in Runs/game (average of 4.36) and play in the 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th most favourable hitters parks in the league. To me that seems like it's significant. Whereas the Rangers pitchers probably get knocked down a peg based on their home park despite the rest of the teams in their division falling in the friendly side of pitching park factors and don't face the same calibre of offense (4.16 runs/game average).

Now, for all I know these are already factored into the projections in some form or another, but I'm just curious. And obviously factoring in both run scoring and park factors isn't rational as it's double counting the effect of run inflation in a place like Boston. But on the whole, it seems like it matters.

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Todd Zola
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Re: Park Adjusting

#2 Post by Todd Zola » December 30th, 2014, 1:23 am

I've done some work on this for Baseball HQ - I call them composite park factors. It doesn't only account for the division but also the entire schedule.

I didn't do ample back-testing to incorporate it this season but I'll decide (based on the results) whether to do it next year.
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Todd Zola
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Re: Park Adjusting

#3 Post by Todd Zola » January 9th, 2015, 1:23 pm

I just calculated the composite park factors for 2014 and the average composite factors for 2012-2014.

Composite averages the factor of every park the team played in that season. So the team's own park is factored in 81 times then the factor for each of the away games.

Turns out using the composite park factors is basically the same. There are some differences of +/- 1 HR here and there but by and large it's the same. My guess for the reason is round off

15.4 HR = 15 HR
14.6 HR = 15 HR

So chances are there's differences, but they're not relevant enough to alter the projection.

Going forward I'm going to use them -- but at least this season, even at the extremes (Russell Martin is the best example, going from PIT to TOR, the difference is negligible (1 HR for Martin).
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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