Accounting for the addition of two new teams - AL Only

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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Trav The Ump

Accounting for the addition of two new teams - AL Only

#1 Post by Trav The Ump »

So for the first time in our 17 year history we will be going to 12 teams. We had 11 last year, but one dropped out and so we are now adding two brand new teams with empty rosters and $260 to spend.

For my prep I usually make a composite sketch of some sites I trust along with a couple of the magazines to give me an overview of where I think the top and bottom is on each player. I also can start to figure out which magazine each guy has read after a few bids that are way higher than the norm or below etc.

From this composite I make my lists with a price I'm comfortable paying for each guy, I than total all this and compare it versus the remaining cash and start to tweak to get an idea where the dollars will be spent. I came up exactly $500 short this year, we're adding $520 to the pool. So my thinking is I priced almost perfectly for a ten team league, but now going to twelve teams and a lot more cash I came up painfully low.

I understand all the general caveats; Most of that will goto the top end guys, inflation, etc etc. My concern is what if the other nine guys either don't notice this or don't account for it combined with the two new guys potentially being slow to get into the fray with their dollars?

A few different scenarios come to mind, early guys will start going for crazy prices leaving values potentially later however with so much money maybe not. (This is the worst case scenario in my opinion). Teams stick to their ten team mentality and it turns out the big guys at the front end up being exceptionally good deals as teams are bogged with lots of cash towards the middle/ ends of the auction. (Best case scenario if I catch it while its happening). No one notices and teams leave the draft with gobs of cash scattered on the auction room floor. (Middle scenario as long as I don't get caught in it).

Anyone have any thoughts on how to approach this? Drafting Friday.

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