Early projections

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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da_big_kid_94
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Early projections

#1 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

Ok – let me preface this by saying that on this particular topic, I plead ignorance and/or a total lack of experience in this vein. This is a totally serious question – it is not meant to be facetious nor am I intending to piss in someone’s Cheerios by posting it.

What is the importance of having 2013 season projections right now? And for those of you who they seem to be important to, why are they important now? Is it because of the league(s) you play in and the fact that the draft comes up soon (prior to, let’s say, March 1)? If so, may I be so forward to ask why you play in such a league? Of what use are these numbers to you now? I am not the greatest believer in projections but that is my own personal peccadillo. I see so many questions about when the projections will be out and if they should be modified for certain players depending on recent circumstances that it makes me wonder what the use of such numbers now is and if I am missing something.

I’m curious and I’m looking for feedback because, to me, it makes no sense so I’d like to see what the other side feels about the importance of these numbers. Any and all feedback is welcome.

DBK.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

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Todd Zola
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Re: Early projections

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

The NFBC runs a contest they call Draft Champions. It's a 15 team mixed league with 50 man rosters. There is no FAAB, you play the entire season with your 50, standard weekly moves allowed. They opened the contest around Dec 1 and are in the process of filling their 65th league.

That was my motivation for launching early -- there are some nutbags out there (yours truly front and center) that can't wait to get started.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Captain Hook

Re: Early projections

#3 Post by Captain Hook »

And there are several other leagues that draft early - Todd and I both play in the Jerry Beckham league which I run, a $100, 15 team, 5X5 league that drafts by email in December (and which is the basis for one of our first drafting/strategy pieces each year).

Some like to use similar leagues to get a feel for the inventory for their 2013 leagues; see what others think; and start to shape their draft lists. Having at least initial projections helps those drafting and gives us at least a reference for re-evaluating thoughts on players while we wait for spring training games to start.


Which BTW is two weeks from today :D

da_big_kid_94
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Re: Early projections

#4 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

So, if I understand correctly, the primary reason for doing projections this early is for leagues whose draft auction dates primarily occur before March 1?

From what was posted, I see that there are some prestigious leagues who start very early. Is there any particular reason why this is so for anyone who may know?
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

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Todd Zola
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Re: Early projections

#5 Post by Todd Zola »

The NFBC responded to a rabid customer base that yearned for some early action -- they had no idea how fast the format would take off.

I was a regular member of the league that kicked off the season for the NFBC, we started on Jan 15. For years we kept that date but others wanted an earlier start so they found 15 people on their own and asked the NFBC to set up a league for them, but to arrange it so the picks were done the equivalent of an e-mail draft. Others did the same so of course the :idea: went off and they launched earlier. Then a customer suggested the no FAAB format (football already did it) so they adapted it in baseball. Football is even easier since you can play "best ball" and let the computer choose your optimal lineup, which can't be done for roto.

From a financial POV, these are $150/$375 leagues (I'd say 5:1 for the cheaper format) which is a small percentage of the $2000 minimum it costs to join a main event league when you include travel and hotel. $150 is a weekend of skiing, a round or two of golf, etc. The high stakes clientele are a different breed, to say the least (not talking about their game play, everyone is still picking from the same inventory, money doesn't make one better, at least not everyone).

For me, the allure of these things is as much social as it is anything else. I only do one, maybe two a season (none so far :cry: ) and enjoy the camaraderie in the chat room as much as the draft itself.

Others just have the drafting itch, not to mention the hope of winning 10K or whatever the prize is. The allure for most is no FAAB so managing is much easier - just lineup moves.

The NFBC loves it because it is easy money. They have taken away from their satellite business (stand alone leagues for smaller price points) but they'll take that trade off since that means they don't have to monitor a draft room for 4 hours on a Wednesday night and be there for roll-backs, mistakes, etc.

Perry mentioned we have a couple of private leagues -- some use them to just learn the names to help prep for the NFBC, we write about them so they give is content, but I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't do them anyway.

And finally, I was launching on Dec 1 even before the NFBC slow drafts took off, mainly because I could - and we could market that. The NFBC thing was extremely serendipitous. As has being unemployed the last three winters, but I digress :?
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Captain Hook

Re: Early projections

#6 Post by Captain Hook »

da_big_kid_94 wrote:So, if I understand correctly, the primary reason for doing projections this early is for leagues whose draft auction dates primarily occur before March 1?

From what was posted, I see that there are some prestigious leagues who start very early. Is there any particular reason why this is so for anyone who may know?

Early projections - Todd would have to amplify but one reason we wanted to get them out early was to have them for our subscribers before others - and maybe that gets you some additional customers as well. There is another side in that doing projections is a process - one that really can't be completed until we have a much better idea of opening day rosters, but starting early and constantly updating helps refine the process.

Prestigious leagues - not sure which you have in mind kid. Todd and I have each discussed some early, mostly lower dollar leagues. In early March, the NL and AL LABR leagues will have their auctions in Phoenix. But that is not a money league but more writers/sites who will then use those leagues as marketing as well. USA Today's Sports Weekly issue that has all those teams, prices, etc is a big seller and a good tool for a large section of the fantasy baseball audience. TOUT Wars will be drafted on March 23 and 24 and while there will be a clearer view of some position battles and rotations it is still a week before we really know final rosters BUT pretty much last chance for people to "use" their projections/values for these high profile (but non money) leagues. That same weekend is the first of the NFBC main event and even larger $$$ leagues but they will run more leagues in the final weekend before the season starts. Those leagues have some of the finest players in the country who pay big entries in hopes of winning even larger prizes.

But there are lots of local leagues with very good players who will also draft that last weekend - March 30 and then of course keeper leagues who don't draft until after Opening Day (so that ML and ml players are clearly defined). Like many others I really prefer those leagues and some players who never make it out of those are amongst the strongest players in the fantasy games today.

da_big_kid_94
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Re: Early projections

#7 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

I understand your point, Perry ... i consider NFBC right up there with Tout Wars. This thread has been an education for me - which was what I was looking for. I was looking at things at face value and did not consider some of the aspects that were brought up here. This was an issue that had always bothered me - and because of my limited acumen in this genre, I kept saying to myself; "Why are all these seemingly intelligent people buying into projections before spring training even starts? I don't get it."

And, to a certain extent ...now I do. Thank you for your responses.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

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