NFBC ONLINE slow draft Strategy idea?

[daweasle]

Is there any way this could work?

OK - So let's say you were in one of those online NFBC leagues where you draft 50 players but you cannot pick up anyone the whole season.

This is kind of gimmicky (maybe even dumb?)

What if for your first 13 picks you went all offense all hitters every pick. You'd have your whole offense set. Then from picks 14-18 or so get 4 closers or hopeful closers or whatever you can get that might get you 80 saves or so. (the idea is to get 4 middle of the road closers but it might be too late by then)

THEN - draft one more offensive player.

NOTES - part of this strategy is you have to always try to pick hitters who are durable and not injury prone. You also have to try to get a few guys with dual position eligibility. (Since you won't have many bench hitters)

Then - for the rest of the draft - every pick you take every random starter you can find who has a chance to be a starter on their team at some point in the season. Of course at some point you can take a few more hitters when the right guy falls to you - BUT - the idea here is to draft like 25 starters. so you have a wide range of possible choices to choose from always playing your starters who are playing against bad offenses or in good pitchers parks and always trying to get guys who will get starts this season even if not right off the bat. If you have that many starters - a few of them are going to pan out and be the next big thing - and a lot of them are going to suck - but the ones in between will hopefully have a matchup at petco park or versus the twins or whatever and you can use those guys that week.

What do you think? Too gimicky?

[Todd Zola]

For $150 you can find out for yourself next year!

Someone will go through the ADP and pick a team that way that shows you "could" do it, but the odds that you actually pick those players are astronomical.

There is no such thing as durable and not injury prone -- last year you may have started with Carl Crawford and Matt Holliday.

You are punting ERA and WHIP, regardless how good the matchups are and saves are iffy - you will need an actual closer or two to fall to you but guys like Balfour and Johnson were going in that range.

If the offense comes through, you could win your league - get $1000 on $150 investment, not bad. But the overall is not happening.

[deansdaddy]

Yeah - I just don't think you can make it work in an NFBC environment waiting that long to take any pitching.

Add in the fact that you would not only miss out on the top starters - you would also have missed out on all of the top closers as well.

By locking up all your offense early on, and forcing yourself to overdraft lesser pitching later on, you also miss out on the large pocket of offensive talent that actually resides in those middle rounds (14-24). This is where I will target my OF 4/5's and usually my MI and UT guys and likely my C2. In my slow draft for instance I landed Brennan Boeasch/Josh Willingham/Mike Aviles/AJ Pierzynski/Chase Headley/Sean Rodriguez and Willin Rosario. The upshot is that my starters are Weaver/Haren/Hanson/Masterson/Sale with Betancourt/Jansen in my pen. You really want to give me (everyone else in your league actually) that much of a head start on the pitching side? How much better do you think your offense will be than mine?

[SteveB]

I could see this strategy actually hurting your offense as well...Your drafting 13 players at set positions to acquire your
starters....What happens if your in say the 9th round and SS/MI has the most value , or you already have drafted your OF
and have to drop down the list to get that last C or MI you need to fill in your "starters" Doing it this may in my opinion takes away a lot of our flexibility during the draft AND likely you will leave value on the board not only at P but at some of those offensive positions also.

[Todd Zola]

Steve and Ryan are correct - what ends up happening is you take a hitter several rounds before "you have to" according to the ADP (I know, we spent all spring saying screw the ADP).

That said -- if you wanted to try it still, by taking 3 solid CLOSERS in rounds 7-11 or so, you push the last few hitters down some rounds.

Or better still, take the PREMIER closers early, giving you a bit of an edge with ratios that you will need. Others will still be taking 4-6 starting pitchers in the first 16/17 rounds, so you should still, "on paper" realize the hitting edge.

But as Ryan alluded to, the game is not won on paper, but on the field and the inventory from rounds 12-20 or so is extremely close, so you may not get the edge you think by taking your 5th OF or MI or CI 3 or 4 rounds earlier than someone else.

[deansdaddy]

I, Todd, Perry and a bunch of our readers and writers took Slow Draft teams out for a spin this year. The one recurring theme that I recall is that pitching came off the board at a much quicker rate than in regular drafts. Closers in particular were subject to some CRAZY early runs, sometimes rounds earlier than you would see in a 30 round NFBC draft. I think you would have a much better chance of pulling this strategy off in a regular 30 RD Satellite league than in one of the Slow Drafts.

[daweasle]

OK - so first of all thanks for the discussion here - I think it makes sense especially the part you said about being able to win 1 league but probably not be competitive in the overall

I think the revision is - during rounds 1-18 try to get 4 reliable closers and 1 good SP and 13 hitters.

Actually now that I think of it I have always tried to do that (except last few years I have taken more SP earlier)

[deansdaddy]

Well - that's the revision IF you still want to try an extreme bully hitting/manage pitching approach.

I still don't really don't think it's a winning strategy. I want to target at least one elite arm (and I would likely go for two) in the first 7 rounds. Then you go get those closers. Those two rotation anchors along with those closers give you a better base to then take chances on pitching after round 14 with mid range arms you like. But hey -that's just me. I'd much rather have a solid foundation to my starting staff in place by that point in my draft.

[josh]

By rounds 14-18, you're already looking at the worst of worst closers. Those are guys who usually dont hold on to their jobs all year. I did a few slow drafts, not always but usually, the best OF that went in say around 15-17 isnt that much better than the OF in round 22-25.

One thing that I did notice, in slows and regular satellites that in my opinion, MR's are going WAY too early. Some of these guys are in line for saves but at best you have a 20% chance of that guy getting relevant saves. I would rather take a chance on a SP in that round who has more of a chance of contributing.

I have always wondered this, I have noticed Mastersball usually projects a high value on MR. For example, Clippard was $10 and there were a lot more in that $2-$8 range. To get that value, how would you use those guys? Would you just set one of them in there and leave him. Or sprinkle him?

[Todd Zola]

I have always wondered this, I have noticed Mastersball usually projects a high value on MR. For example, Clippard was $10 and there were a lot more in that $2-$8 range. To get that value, how would you use those guys? Would you just set one of them in there and leave him. Or sprinkle him?

I'm actually scheduled to do a piece on this very topic for ESPN Insider next week. The bottom line is the help Clippard gives in ERA and WHIP is a wash with what he costs in W and ERA as compared to a $10 starter -- assuming you leave them in all year. FWIW, to me, that is one of the shortcomings of conventional valuation methodology -- the values assume each player is the only player to occupy that roster spot and that spot is occupied all season. This is NOT the way things work.

But to answer the question -- a $10 starter can be made into a $12 starter if only start them for favorable matchups or an $8 starter can be made a $10 starter, etc.

So I will (at least try) to cherry pick good matchups and use someone like Clippard during weeks with cruddy ones.