Minor League Roster - Hitters over Pitchers?

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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Trav The Ump

Minor League Roster - Hitters over Pitchers?

#1 Post by Trav The Ump »

So, I'm just throwing this out there as mind diarrhea. In my AL-Only league we get up to four minor league players in our reserve max, with ability to draft two each year following our auction. I'm wondering if I'm crazy or this is sound logic? I refuse to take pitchers; whether it's first overall or twentieth. My logic being that I generally am not patient enough for said player to languish on my roster and provide little stats once he hits the majors. Also if a pitcher blows a shoulder/ elbow he's out very long term and his value completely plummets, negating his trade value. However barring a very serious injury to a hitter they can normally bounce back.

Now this is not about talent over potential etc, just a simple feeling of draft day value that long term avoiding some serious arm issues will provide more value to my keeper team than trying to find the next Matt Moore. Last year with my 2nd round pick I took Sano out of Minnesota on a flier. I think he already provides more value than a number of the "top" pitchers on last year's prospects list simply based on trade value alone. I realize I'm cherry picking here but the underlying logic makes sense to me. Am I right?

Captain Hook

Re: Minor League Roster - Hitters over Pitchers?

#2 Post by Captain Hook »

Yes and No

Certainly if the talent is close to equal on the high end, we should all take the hitter.
In fact if you look at my minor league prospect lists you will note some hitters ranked much higher than other lists because they are close to arriving (late 2012 or 2013), and will have an impact (ie Myers or Arenado) so I think they are more valuable to fantasy teams than the top pitching prospects.

BUT you can't ignore the best starting pitcher prospects with the chance you will have them for their early years at decent prices. Some are "known" talent because of college and being drafted at the top of the first round (Cole or Bauer); others take a year or two in the minors and develop quickly (I drafted Michael Pineda two years before he pitched for the Mariners). There is big fantasy value for some of the best young pitchers.

The other aspect that is very important is how long you can keep them as a minor leaguer and how many minor leaguers you can keep. If I am reading your information correctly and you can only have four on your roster you should only go for the highest upside and likely closest to arriving except for a Sano or more obviously a Bryce Harper (who was drafted four years ago in my NL keeper league where we can keep eight going into the season and draft five more each year.

Trav The Ump

Re: Minor League Roster - Hitters over Pitchers?

#3 Post by Trav The Ump »

Old school rules, keep them as long as they are in the minors. Once called up you have two Sundays to do something with them. However you do get amnesty for any player called up September 1 or later, it is than your choice to activate or not and start their clock.

I'll counter your Pineda with the entire Royals pitching guys, Mike Montgomery's stock has plummeted. Danny Duffy pitched all season to mixed results. Yet if you had Wil Myers still sitting their I still feel his value is higher than those pitchers.

Even Strasburg blew out his arm, there goes all that value so quickly.

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