NFBC 15-team Slow Draft, no FAAB, 50 Rounds -- Strategy?

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TheRunner77

NFBC 15-team Slow Draft, no FAAB, 50 Rounds -- Strategy?

#1 Post by TheRunner77 »

Hi everyone, am new to the site. Have scoured several threads about NFBC drafts but have not seen any about how to approach a 50-Round draft.

1. What strategies would you use in such a format when compared to a 30 Rounder with FAAB?

2. Also, I have seen target category stats cited by several individuals but don't know where they get them. For instance, where does one find which category targets allowed participants last year to finish in the top 20% in a 50 rounder? How about in the to 10%? If someone has them handy, would you please post them for each category?

Then, the question of how do you set a gameplan.

3. What about statistical trends? SPs are becoming more reliable, power hitters are not as productive as they used to be. Is it wise to spend a first round pick on a hitter whose main strength is power ? Or do you try for a more balanced approach and give up power if it means adding a little speed?

4. You're drafting next week. What do you do about Ryan Braun? Some will argue that you should buy certainty with your early picks. If you knock off roughly 30% of Braun's production, when does he become a viable draft option?

5. You're drafting near the end of the Round. Who do you expect to find in the 12-13-14-15 spots of the 1st Round? Kershaw is available on your 2nd pick early in Round 2. Are you tempted? Is any SP "good" value in the first 4 slots of Round 2, be it Kershaw/Halladay/Verlander?

6. How do you feel about the power/speed guys with the .240 BAs? If you haven’t built up a high BA with your early picks, would you still go for these "tainted" power/speed types? If so, when?

7. How much focus do you put on maintaining a high BA as the draft evolves? I mean, it's easier to find well rounded players up to maybe the 5-7th Round and then come the more blemished producers. Those with the counting stats but low ratio production. And those with high ratios and low counting stats. Do you draft according to need (re what your team looks like to that point) or do you go with best available?

8. If one looks at how NFBC drafts turn out in general, there is a greater tendency to draft pitching early. How much pitching and how early is too early? How many SPs do you typically expect to have rostered by Round 5? Round 10? Round 15? Round 20?

9. Since you have an extra 20 Rounds to work with, was wondering if closers are not devalued? I mean, you have several opportunities to throw darts at 2nd and 3rd in line closers -- you're bound to hit one given that the highest turnover rate of any position is closer (usually a 40% turnover). Or are you of the opinion that you're better off securing at least one "anchor" closer in Rounds 5-7 and then speculate on pretenders much later?

10. When do you start looking at part-time players, 4th outfielders, hot prospects, players who are likely to step in given they are only an injury-prone player away from ABs, etc.? How many prospects is too many? When is it too “early” to draft a prospect?

11. I hate catchers. I feel guilty when I pick them early. And when I pick them late, I feel like those people buying lockers full of junk on Storage Wars. I don't want to be that Barry guy with the skeleton gloves -- he's entertaining as hell but he always guesses wrong. :P

12. And, how do you deal with injury-prone players (Hamilton, Kinsler, Reyes, etc.). It never ceases to amaze me how drafters pass up on healthier types with a little lower ceiling but will chase the upside of these injury-prone types with their early round picks, which they are typically not able to duplicate over 2 or more seasons.

13. Dreaded personnel changes. Which new manager likes to run? Which team hired a new base-stealing coach? Which managers don’t value young players? Which teams overwork their pitchers or have a track record of poor post-injury care?

I apologize for the length of this post and for the number of questions. They are only meant to foster discussion. Please feel free to answer any of them or to post your own or even better, to share your experiences.

I have a preference for this type of format as it allows me to more easily enter and manage multiple leagues, without the weekly spectre/excitement of FAAB. However, on the downside, it requires a lot more homework, errors can be very fatal since there is no lifeline to correct them, as with other formats. All of which makes your input all the more valuable.

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Todd Zola
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Re: NFBC 15-team Slow Draft, no FAAB, 50 Rounds -- Strategy?

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

TheRunner77 wrote:Hi everyone, am new to the site. Have scoured several threads about NFBC drafts but have not seen any about how to approach a 50-Round draft.

1. What strategies would you use in such a format when compared to a 30 Rounder with FAAB?
Personally, my strategy is to choose a few areas to be extra strong, then take a butt-load of fliers in the others. Maybe I choose to go really strong on hitting but do the spaghetti method with pitching (throw a bunch against the wall and see what sticks). Or the opposite, get strong pitching and take a tankload of guys that may end up with more playing time than initially thought and hope 2 or 3 of them hit.

One thing I don't want to do is mess with closers -- I'll invest in two guys that I feel will have the job all season. They may not be the top guys, they may be League and Hanrahan, but I won't mess with the borderline types, no matter how cheap (Jim Johnson, Frank Francisco) because I don't have FAAB to fix my mistakes. I will take some spec guys like Gregerson or Venters because I like to use them some weeks when my starters have bad matchups.

I like multi-position guys as that lengthens the bench. Even someone with the seemingly innocuous 1B/OF eligibility is useful.

This is something I am thinking about in general, not just these types of drafts, but investing an early pick in V-Mart, Napoli or C Santana is VERY intriguing, because they are catchers playing non-catcher positions, meaning their health should be less of a risk, not to mention they won't wear down as much. I can see myself taking a catcher in round 4, maybe even 3 in this format.
2. Also, I have seen target category stats cited by several individuals but don't know where they get them. For instance, where does one find which category targets allowed participants last year to finish in the top 20% in a 50 rounder? How about in the to 10%? If someone has them handy, would you please post them for each category?
This is a concept that I am actually a pioneer in. I am not saying I was the first ever to draft towards targets, far from it. But I was definitely the first to really talk about it from an analyst standpoint and provide targets from the previous season's NFBC leagues. The data was not available last season, it is this season (I think). I am going to produce those targets again for Platinum. With the Slow Drafts becoming so popular, I should jump that up on my Toddy-Do list.

That said, I am now at the forefront of warning that target drafting is just a tool, it is not all it is cracked up to be and I am not nearly as big of a proponent as I was a few years back. This will be an ongoing these and I promise, will not be the last I talk about it. Not saying don't do it, just saying there are some factors that need to be kept in mind as you are doing it.

Then, the question of how do you set a gameplan.
3. What about statistical trends? SPs are becoming more reliable, power hitters are not as productive as they used to be. Is it wise to spend a first round pick on a hitter whose main strength is power ? Or do you try for a more balanced approach and give up power if it means adding a little speed?
This feeds into an earlier answer -- use these trends to design a two-pronged strategy where doing one thing leads to doing something else in another are, they are tied together. For those that know what the LIMA plan is, that is a perfect example. When people think LIMA, they think it is a means to draft pitching, and it is. But just as important is how LIMA availed you extra money for hitting so it was really a total draft strategy, not just a pitching strategy.
4. You're drafting next week. What do you do about Ryan Braun? Some will argue that you should buy certainty with your early picks. If you knock off roughly 30% of Braun's production, when does he become a viable draft option?
Here's what I do. Especially in this format, you are not buying players, you are filling roster spots. You get to use someone else in Braun's stead (assuming he is suspended) for 50 games. For the sake of simplicity, Say tou have Braun for 30 HR and 24 SB. The adjusted numbers are 20/16. You can likely get a 50-game sub to give you say 8 HR and 4 SB. So what I now do is consider Braun a 28/20 guy, make the same adjustments to runs, RBI and BA and figure out where I would draft THAT player and put him there. GRATUITOUS PLUG ALERT -- for those so inclined, we have tools in Platinum that will allow you to do this and get the actual adjusted value/ranking.
5. You're drafting near the end of the Round. Who do you expect to find in the 12-13-14-15 spots of the 1st Round? Kershaw is available on your 2nd pick early in Round 2. Are you tempted? Is any SP "good" value in the first 4 slots of Round 2, be it Kershaw/Halladay/Verlander?
Again, yes, but not in a vacuum. If you take a pitcher that early, make sure you think of ways to make up for the lost offense. Maybe that is drafting 3 decent OF, then waiting and drafting 8 more late, hoping to fill 3 posts (OF4, OF5, UT). Taking Carlos Lee or Ryan Raburn in this mix gets you help at another position as well.
6. How do you feel about the power/speed guys with the .240 BAs? If you haven’t built up a high BA with your early picks, would you still go for these "tainted" power/speed types? If so, when?
The category I care least about is batting average as it is so fickle. If I can pound up the other 4 cats, I am willing to let the BA fall where it may. That said, keep in mind that average in general is down. We are all programmed to have a Pavlovian response when we see .240. My point is, .240 is not as bad as it once was. Similarly, a 3.50 pitcher used to be good - now he is still good, but relatively speaking, not as good as before -- ERAs are lower.
7. How much focus do you put on maintaining a high BA as the draft evolves? I mean, it's easier to find well rounded players up to maybe the 5-7th Round and then come the more blemished producers. Those with the counting stats but low ratio production. And those with high ratios and low counting stats. Do you draft according to need (re what your team looks like to that point) or do you go with best available?
Again, BA is the least of my worries. I can even rubber stamp a strategy to completely ignore it so long as you really muscle up the other 4 cats. Best available is a slippery slope as that can be defined in a few ways. Best as in most reliable? Best as in highest upside?
8. If one looks at how NFBC drafts turn out in general, there is a greater tendency to draft pitching early. How much pitching and how early is too early? How many SPs do you typically expect to have rostered by Round 5? Round 10? Round 15? Round 20?
My motto is draft the pitcher, not the round. Whatever my strategy, I identify a tier of pitchers and will jump in when that tier is being drafted, regardless of the round. I do this for my top-3 starters and #1 closer. The rest I go with the flow. I don't worry about my roster composition after round 5, but I usually will have have 3 SP and a closer by pick 11. It usually comes down to a choice in round 10, take the pitcher or see if he makes it to 11. Round 10/11 is really my only landmark and even then it is not a plan, but more an observation -- the rest is go with the flow and take tiers when they are drafted.
9. Since you have an extra 20 Rounds to work with, was wondering if closers are not devalued? I mean, you have several opportunities to throw darts at 2nd and 3rd in line closers -- you're bound to hit one given that the highest turnover rate of any position is closer (usually a 40% turnover). Or are you of the opinion that you're better off securing at least one "anchor" closer in Rounds 5-7 and then speculate on pretenders much later?
Addressed this before -- I know you have 50 roster spots, but I don't want to waste any of them so I will let the others toss the darts and will end up with 2 guys, likely ranked in the upper half but not necessarily top-5. But, I will take set up guys with good ratios that I can deploy. I need to think about this, but I can also see investing in a bullpen where the next in line is "obvious" and spending an earlier than usual pick to handcuff that closer.

10. When do you start looking at part-time players, 4th outfielders, hot prospects, players who are likely to step in given they are only an injury-prone player away from ABs, etc.? How many prospects is too many? When is it too “early” to draft a prospect?
This could be my weakness, but I would rather take Josh Willingham than Mike Trout. I would rather take Ben Francisco than Bryce Harper. But that's just me.
11. I hate catchers. I feel guilty when I pick them early. And when I pick them late, I feel like those people buying lockers full of junk on Storage Wars. I don't want to be that Barry guy with the skeleton gloves -- he's entertaining as hell but he always guesses wrong. :P
See my signature for my feeling on catchers. That said, as I mentioned (maybe I should have read all the questions first ;) ) I am really thinking about VMart/Napoli/Santana because they are not squatting 130 games a season.
12. And, how do you deal with injury-prone players (Hamilton, Kinsler, Reyes, etc.). It never ceases to amaze me how drafters pass up on healthier types with a little lower ceiling but will chase the upside of these injury-prone types with their early round picks, which they are typically not able to duplicate over 2 or more seasons.
Just as I suggest with Braun -- factor in a reasonable number of stats when the player is hurt and value the player in that manner. Figure on Youkilis for 130 games, and add in the stats of someone else for 30 games, etc. Sometimes you get lucky like last season with Kinsler or 2010 with Rickie Weeks.
13. Dreaded personnel changes. Which new manager likes to run? Which team hired a new base-stealing coach? Which managers don’t value young players? Which teams overwork their pitchers or have a track record of poor post-injury care?
While some of this is analytical, most of it is too anecdotal and while using this in your thinking intuitively is smart, it is usually not all that predictable.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

southpaw

Re: NFBC 15-team Slow Draft, no FAAB, 50 Rounds -- Strategy?

#3 Post by southpaw »

TheRunner77: Did this draft get completed? Would love to see and analyze your 50 players. Post 'em up when you get a chance.
I'm getting towards the end of the one I'm in and will post my draft in a separate thread.

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