Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
Post Reply
Message
Author
deansdaddy

Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#1 Post by deansdaddy »

Okay - on the train back home from Citifield.

I picked from the #2 spot in this 12 team league. I was pretty happy with how it turned out. I will elaborate more on these picks later but here is the team for the MB gang to ponder.

1- Miguel Cabrera 1B
2- Matt Holliday. OF
3- Nelson Cruz. OF
4- C.C. Sabathia. SP
5- Brandon Phillips 2B
6- Dan Haren. SP
7- Derek Jeter. SS
8- Heath Bell RP
9- Michael Young. 3B
10- Mike Napoli. C
11- Andres Torres. OF
12- Huston Street. RP
13- Angel Pagan. OF
14- Hiroki Kuroda. SP
15- Javier Vazquez. SP
16- Brian Matusz. SP
17- Jaime Garcia. SP
18- Ryan Raburn. OF
19- Marlon Byrd. OF
20- Peter Borjous. OF
21- Miguel Tejada. SS/3B
22- Ervin Santana SP
23- HK Kuo. RP
24- AJ Pierzynski C
25- Scott Baker. SP
26- Chipper Jones 3B
27. Jose Lopez 3B (2b soon)
28. Jed Lowrie. 2B/SS
29. Matt LaPorta 1B/OF
30. Brett Wallace 1B

Very interested to see what Mastersball software says when I plug it in. Didn't expect to grab so many sticks in the reserve rounds - but I like all the names I got. Felt like I got enough speed and wanted to throw a bunch of stuff at my MI/CI spots in the endgame. I like the flexibility of this squad. I felt good enough with my sp's to go hitting late and try to catch some lightning.

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#2 Post by deansdaddy »

Okay - we'll break down the approach I took to this draft and what actually occurred. For clarity - this was a 12 team draft with 30 man rosters (23 active/7reserve). No DL spots and no trades.

Since I would not be drafting in the Main Event in 2011, my Live Double Play team qualifies as my most important team of the year, since the prize here is bigger than any of my other leagues. Winning your league nets you a $2000 prize and means you will likely be in the running for not one but two overall prizes. There is a $50,000 grand prize for the general Double Play - which includes a host of online teams. Not sure what the final number was this year - but last year it was about 800 teams. In addition, those that payed extra for DP Live teams are also entered in a second overall worth $20,000. Again, not sure of the final numbers here - but last year it was about 430 teams. So, like the Main Event, when drafting a Double Play team you are not only trying to win your league you are also trying to put yourself in a position to compete in the two overall contests.

The first thing I did was to take a look at Shawn Child's take on the upcoming season http://www.wcofs.com/site/baseballmafia ... argets2011. Shawn uses previous seasons data to track what you would have needed to finish in the Top 20% in all 10 categories. If you can achieve this, you will have put yourself in a position to manage your team to a title. When a player of Child's caliber states right at the top that he has struggled with the change from 15 to 12 teams, you know there is a real challenge with the format. It is hard for drafters who have devoted months of preparation to the deeper leagues to downshift to a shallower draft sometimes. After reading Shawn's take on what it would take to win this season, I went back and re-read a sentence near the top. "In order to beat a large field, you need to get batting average, ERA, and whip right." To me this made sense. All three of these stats are ratios and as such are much harder to make up ground on if you find yourself in a hole early on. I learned this the hard way last season as I got killed by early season meltdowns from Rich Harden and Scott Kazmir in 2010. No matter how hard I tried, I could never really undo the damage that these two (and others) inflicted on my pitching numbers. On the offensive side, I drafted Utley/Rollins/Sandoval 1-2-3 and you don't need me to explain how much of a disaster that was. It was at this point I decided that a large part of my strategy would be focused into making sure I had a great BA, ERA and Whip coming out of the draft. I would also try to get at a minimum two solid closers and as close to a no nonsense pitching staff as possible. I didn't want to have to chase pitching and wanted to be able to speculate on power late in my draft.

Thanks to two early drafts run by Perry Van Hook in Jan. and Feb., I felt like I had gotten an earlier start on my prep than ever before. Throw in a Sat draft as well as our own Mock draft where I drafted two teams and I felt like I was going into this draft more prepared than I had for any draft ever. All the prep work I put in meant I felt comfortable sitting down with nothing more than my MB Tiers sheet as a primary draft tool. I divided my tiers into two groups - hitters and pitchers. I had a clip board that had my MB Hitters Tiers on top. I had the Pitchers on the table. My clipboard also contained the following underneath the Tier sheet for easy quick reference:

-A single page mapping out the draft in two round intervals. I listed the players at different positions who I thought might be available to me at those points in the draft as well as potential targets and guys I might move up if I thought the time was right. I also highlighted certain positions if I thought they needed to be considered at certain points. ie: I had CL highlighted at 8/9 and C highlighted at 10/11. This page was used as a reference point to my tiers and sometimes took precedence to keep me on course.
-Single sheets labled - Speed/Power and Judy's, BA, ERA. On these sheets I listed the names of players that I thought would excel in these categories. I crossed off names as they went - paying most attention to my speed page. I had been coming up short on speed in every draft this year and wanted to try and avoid that here. I wanted to grab power/speed types when I could and make sure to try and roster a "Judy" to have in reserve.
-A second rankings sheet from Rotolab (HQ) projections. This was In the past I leaned more on HQ projections. Last year I would say I was more at a 50/50 split between MB and Rotolab/HQ. This year I really felt that much of my prep and thinking was more in line with MB. This is perfectly natural since I had spent almost the entire pre-season drafting and mocking with MB talent. The difference this year was I felt much more comfortable with the player pool that using the Tiers freed me from the "numbers" game that can sabotage drafts IMO. Freed from the need to constantly be looking at numbers gave me more time to get into the flow of the draft and employ my strategy. I did reference this later in the draft, just to compare certain players I was looking at.

So I had my plan and I had my tools. All that was left was to draft. I'll break down the picks below to see how everything unfolded.

southpaw

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#3 Post by southpaw »

Your bats do look really good. Nice mixture of speed/power although if there was one area I think you may be a little short in, it's power.
Pitching looks okay for 12 teamer. I think you will be short some K's since you have guys like Kuroda, Matusz and Vazquez. Ervin was nice value that late.
How was the live experience?

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#4 Post by deansdaddy »

Okay - above I broke down my thought process and preparation going into the draft. Here is a synopsis of each pick and the thought process behind them.

Round 1, Pick 2 - Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET

Coming into the draft at number two, only one thing was really certain, I wouldn't be drafting Albert Pujols. I mapped out a couple different openings with players such as Hanley/Tulo or Crawford/Braun as my first pick. In the end I opted for Cabrera. The fact that MB and Todd Z backed up my thinking made it an easier choice. The only other player I considered was Crawford and that was under the belief that I could get Howard or Youkilis on the way back. My dream opening would have Youkilis sliding to Pick 23 and then grabbing the best OF left from Kemp/Cruz/McCutchen/Choo. If Youkilis were gone - I would grab the OF I liked best at 2 and then decide where to go at pick 3. In my mind going in the most likely scenario had me going Cabrera/Cruz/Choo to start off.

Round 2, Pick 23 - Matt Holliday, OF STL

Round one provided some surprises as Prince Feilder went at 11 (ahead of Teixeira) and Crawford slid all the way to pick 12. To my dismay Team 12 jumped Youkilis ahead of Arod, D Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard. The first 4 would follow with Dustin Pedroia mixed in. Pedroia was the only MI I would have drafted at the 2/3 turn and Youkilis was gone. So halfway through Round 2 and I already was thinking OF/OF. I looked at my sheet and realized Matt Holliday hadn't gone at his usual spot. I was now positive I would get two OF I liked. Kemp, Halladay, Hamilton and Mauer go setting me up for my 2nd pick. Much to my surprise - two players I never thought would be there in Holliday and Ryan Howard are there. I am tempted by Howard's power here - but decide to take the gift of a sliding Holliday.

Round 3, Pick 26 - Nelson Cruz, OF, TEX

Team one takes Buster Posey and Jose Reyes at the turn. He throws Ryan Howard right into my lap again. I admit to being thrown by it and literally talking myself into sticking with my original plan, which called for grabbing Cruz in Round 2. McCutchen and Choo were here as was Kinsler and my choice of Lincecum/Felix/Lester. I had planned coming in to go SP in Round 4. In the end I opted for Cruz over everyone else. He was the one player here who I thought could make the jump and provide Top 5 value. It wasn't an easy choice and I actually hated passing up Choo here. But power would be key and I liked Cruz's power upside more than anyone else's.

Round 4, Pick 47 - C.C. Sabathia, SP, NYY

On my game-plan sheet I had 4/5 mapped out as follows. SP, 2b/SS, OF and C were highlighted. SP was a lock and I had 4 names down: C.C., Haren, Verlander and Kershaw. Kershaw was circled as the likely target as I figured the others could be taken. I would have to get an ace here and if someone above Kershaw fell - I'd take them. Looking at the names I expected to be available showed that at SS/2B I had Rollins and Phillips listed. At C I had McCann and OF I had Rios, Pence, Werth and Ellsbury. Prior to my pick Ellsbury, Rios, McCann all go. I was surprised to see two OF's that I had in my Rd 6/7 line are drafted, Mike Stanton and B.J. Upton. I am somewhat shocked that all my SP names are still there. I debate between Haren and C.C. going with the hometown guy. I decide to get an SP now - let team 1 pick - and see what's left. Going SP/SP becomes a distinct possibility now.

Round 5, Pick 50 - Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN

I am surprised when Team 1 doesn't take an SP. He further more takes two players I have ranked lower in Jason Heyward and Richie Weeks. Looking at the board I have Philips, Pence and Werth, Haren. I also see Adrian Beltre and Paul Konerko there and my boy Carlos Santana. I think about them there as well as OF. I decide to let Haren go and get a bat. I decide I will pass the OF here and hope Drew Stubbs makes it around. I look at 2B and see the guys I like after Phillips are Ben Zobrist and Kelly Johnson. I see them going around 9/10. But I am not positive they will be there and am pretty sure I want to take a CL there with one pick. I pass on Beltre thinking I can get either Sandoval, M Young or Alvarez in my next pair of picks. There is no SS left I like here so I decide to go with Phillips. Looking back I maybe should have gone Beltre here - since I could have gotten Kelly Johnson where I ended up taking my 3B. In the end a wash I guess. I close out Round 5 with the start I anticipated but with two upgrades in C.C. and Holliday. I am pretty happy at this point.

Round 6, Pick 71 - Dan Haren, SP, ARI

My pre-draft plan had 3B/OF/SP highlighted for these rounds. I figured those positions would offer the deepest pool of talent to likely be available. If Stubbs and Carlos Santana were available they would be my picks. I had the following SP's listed: Hanson, Weaver, Gallardo and Cain. I highly doubted Santana would make it so I was more focused on them and the 3B pool I expected to be there in Sandoval/Michael Young. I also had Derek Jeter as the only SS I thought might be there. Going in I was planning on falling back and drafting Furcal much later. I wasn't focused on Jeter at all since I thought he'd be long gone. Santana goes late Rd 5 and Stubbs goes early in 6. 6 SP and 1 CL (B Wilson) go and I am shocked when Haren is still there. I actually went down my rankings and chose Sabathia over him. I don't hesitate at all and grab the guy I have ranked higher than every other name that just got called.

Round 7, Pick 74 - Derek Jeter, SS, NYY

Originally I thought this pick would be a 3B. Team 1 takes Hanson and Aramis Ramirez. I am not a Ramiriez fan, so I like that pick. I see three 3B I could live with in Sandoval/M Young/McGehee (Reynolds didn't fit the BA plan) and decide to wait til 8/9. Only one closer is gone - so I will wait. Some may start to go - but I am confident I can get one I like in my original target rounds of 8/9. Looking at what's left I see Ichiro and Jeter. My sheet says Ichiro should be the pick. My heart says Jeter. I think Jeter bounces back. Maybe not in the power department - but definitley the BA is coming back up I think. If he bats 2nd, Gardner stealing bases should help open up more holes for those groundballs that weren't there last year. I go scarcity here and take another player I can watch everyday on TV here in NYC. After making this pick I note that I no longer have to target my SS where I originally planned, which was Rd's 12/13 - I quickly scribble OF instead next to the names Desmond/Furcal.

Round 8, Pick 95 - Heath Bell, RP, SD

The next 20 picks see 12 P's go. Round 8 brings the first closer run as Marmol/Feliz/Soria/Papelbon all go. I stick to my plan and take my 1st closer. I have to choose between Mariano or Bell. I take youth over age and pass on Mariano. The guy at No 1 openly curses - which is actually a sound you like hearing right after you pick. I will admit i partly chose Bell cause I didn't want to put another egg in the Yankees basket. Plus I feel Mariano getting hurt is at least just as likely as Bell getting traded into a setup role.

Round 9, Pick 98 - Michael Young, 3B, TEX

This was a place it safe pick. Sandoval and Alvarez go in Round 8. Looking at my original plan, both Kelly Johnson and Zobrist were here at this point making me wish I had grabbed a Jay Bruce or Jayson Werth at Pick 5. But, the past being the past I look at what's left. Colby Rasmus is the one OF I would reach for here. I could take Zobrist and his 2B/OF versatility or I could get Mat Latos who has slid due to injury concerns. After taking a full minute - I play it safe and grab Young. He fits my plan of high BA guys and I didn't want to get stuck with Reynolds or worse.

Round 10, Pick Pick 119 - Mike Napoli, 1B/C, TEX

Sticking with the plan here as I had this area pegged for my initial C choice. Lots of OF's come off the board, which gets my attention. Zobrist, K Johnson, Aaron Hill and Brian Roberts get drafted. Actually had the names Wieters and Montero here, but was happy to see Napoli around after Wieters gets drafted first. I needed some power after the Jeter and Young selections and Napoli fit the bill. It didn't bother me that he was at the top of my tier sheet. He was the choice here. My backups plans here were to get a 3B, SS or 2B if I hadn't already gotten one - I had them all so it was Napoli all the way.

After 10 picks I had my 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP's and a CL. This is pretty much my optimal outcome after 10 picks so I am pretty happy as we enter the first break. I am really happy coming away with C.C. and Haren fronting my staff ad figure this gives me a chance to focus my next few picks elsewhere. But now it was time to hit the bathroom, grab a bite to eat and get ready for the next 10 picks.

Black Sox
Major League All-Star
Posts: 350
Joined: January 4th, 2010, 10:39 am
Preferred Style: 5x5 Mix

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#5 Post by Black Sox »

Love the draft Ryan and the commentary. Love hearing your thoughts on why you did what you did. Just not a big fan of the Phillips or Jeter picks. Read this on CNNSI and I think it really capsuls why I'm so down on Phillips.....


Brandon Phillips (ADP: 34.78, Expert ADP: 35.1) -- There's an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm in which, at the urging of his psychiatrist, Larry David takes his wife Cheryl to the beach. Once there, he predictably begins complaining, saying he doesn't understand what people love about the ocean. Cheryl explains its charms of relaxation, and asks if Larry feels the same. "No," he replies. "I feel aggravated that I'm missing what other people are getting."

I feel the same way about Phillips. What am I missing? Since going 30-30 in 2007, Phillips has seen his home run total fall to 21, 20 and 18 last year. He bottomed out at 16 stolen bases last year, despite playing 155 healthy games. Last season was his best in terms of OBP, when he got on base at a blistering .332 clip. In '07, his ground ball rate was 46.7 percent and his line drive rate was 18.5 percent. Last year, those numbers were 51.4 and 15.3. This is a guy I want to use my third pick on? Is it because second base is an ostensibly shallow position? Because if that's the reason, you need to take another look. Ian Kinsler is the seventh-ranked second baseman in terms of ADP. Kelly Johnson, who hit 26 homers with 13 steals and a .370 OBP last year, is going 80 picks after Phillips. I'll pass on Phillips in every draft I'm in this season.

Overall you did a great job, good luck this year!
Boston Black Sox
Steve Le Blanc

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#6 Post by deansdaddy »

Yep - it was the one pick I didn't really love when the dust settled. There were definitely others I liked at least as much here. Again, you have 1 minute to make up or change your mind. Phillips was I guess the pick I had in mind and I couldn't talk myself out of him in that minute. :D

Ichiro would have also likely been a better pick than Jeter. Even Sandoval may have been better. The fact that Furcal and Desmond - the two names I had targeted went two full rounds lower than I had them projected likely underlines this.

Michael Young was a safe play. It cost me Rasmus. I could have gotten McGehee at 11 instead of having to reach for the best power/speed OF that I had on my board.

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#7 Post by deansdaddy »

During the break I was feeling pretty good about my team. I saw someone I had met beforehand was using Rotolab to track the draft, so I went up and asked if he would mind telling me what Rotolab said my BA was. He checked and said "You're at .294. That sounded about right and that was with Mike Napoli at #10. I got back to my spot early - since I knew I would be second on the clock when we resumed and I needed to figured out where I was going next.

Round 11, Pick 122 - Andres Torres, OF, SF

Having learned my lesson with Ichiro and Rasmus I guess, I threw the ADP out the window here and decided to move Torres up the board a couple rounds to get him. As i wrote earlier I had this round as the time to address my IF if I hadn't already. I looked at my sheet and saw where I had "Get OF instead" next to my SS targets. My sheet told me that Torres was at the top of an OF tier that was halfway depleted. Others were Swisher, Huff, Quentin, Adam Jones, C Lee, A Pagan. Austin Jackson was the best pure "Judy" on the board. I had Matt Thorton targeted here, but he went in the 10th. I'd wait - since what was left as a #2 CL wasn't as good as Thorton would have been. I notice Ted Lilly and Shawn Marcum still around - but decide I need Torres more. 15/25 seems like a lock with 20/30 a possibility.

Round 12, Pick 143 - Huston Street, CL, COL

I originally had this pick targeted for a second closer. I hate chasing saves and any saves I was going to chase would be from No 3 closers. I had Broxton/C Perez/ K-Rod as targets here with Street/Bailey written at Round 13. Sure enough the next mini closer run starts in Round 11. Broxton/Valverde/Axford/C Perez all get drafted. 4 C's come off the board taking the only names I would have considered here off the board. Interestingly, no OF's I really still like go off the board and Swisher is intriguing. A lot of the young SP's I really liked go in Dan Hudson, Brett Anderson and Ted Lilly goes. In the end I decide to take the last solid Closer on the board and again see what Team 1 leaves me.

Round 13, Pick 146 - Angel Pagan, OF, NYM

Team 1 takes Gordon Beckham (another reason to hate the Phillips pick) and Nick Swisher. Power/Speed is almost gone at the OF position. Austin Jackson stil around. I then see I have Pagan penciled in for my next round of picks. I think about Jeremy Hellickson and Brandon Morrow, but deicde to gamble Marcum will slide one more round. I actually decide to see what HQ thinks of Pagan. I am surprised to see that he is the highest rated OF on the HQ board next to Michael Bourn. I move Pagan up the board and take him. There are groans from a couple spaces around the room. Yep, he would have never made it back to me, so I am glad I went and got him.

Round 14, Pick 167 - Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD

My pre-game plan had me taking an SP at 13 and an OF here. Either Torres/Pagan/Tabata were listed. I had moved up and gotten two of them. The casualty was getting a true upside #3 SP. Torress had cost me Anderson, Dan Hudson and Lilly. Pagan cost me Hellickson, B Morrow, C Lewis and even Josh Beckett and James Shields who I also liked. I had paid the price for getting my speed. Javier Vazquez was the next best name I had, but I went with ERA and Whip stabilizer Kuroda. After this pick I was pretty certain I was coming back with another SP.

Round 15, Pick 170 - Javier Vazquez, SP, FLA

Team 1 takes Chacin and Dempster. I decided I had waited long enough on SP so I got more and grabbed the best arm on my board in Vazquez. I considered Bumgarner as well here but went with Javy instead.

Round 16, Pick 191 - Brian Matusz, SP, BAL

Coming into these picks I got a sense that a lot of SP was going to go soon. No bats I really coveted went, but I did miss out on a few potential #3 closers in Storen, Kimbrel, Lyon and Lidge. I spy Brian Matusz at the end of my $10-6 tier and decide to grab the last young gun that I really like this year. I think about taking Aubrey Huff, but really don't want to lose Matusz.

Round 17, Pick 194 - Jaime Garcia, SP, STL

Team one takes John Lackey and of course Aubrey Huff. Well he owed me one. I decide to get more pitching and trust my Tier sheet and grab Jaime Garcia since he fits my ERA and Ratio plan to a T. Next best choices are Ricky Nolasco, Brett Myers and Ervin Santana. I am satisfied with my choice and have a very solid staff.

Round 18, Pick 215 - Ryan Raburn, OF DET

Okay, I need to get some bats again and Raburn is one I wanted going into this draft. I had him targeted here and didn't hesitate to grab him. Jason Kubel the other name I liked here. I missed on a bunch more CI and MI start to go. I miss out on Nishioka who I had targeted here as well.

Round 19, Pick 218 - Marlon Byrd, OF, CHC

Team 1 takes Kubel and also Jordan Zimmerman who I was hoping would slide a little further. There isn't a lot I really like here. I think about Cuddyer and Edwin Encarnacion. Somehow I choose Marlon Byrd. I like Byrd, but I played it safe and he likely would have lasted longer. Should have gambled on E.E. or even Arencibia here. You won't love all your picks, even right after you make them.

Round 20, Pick 239 - Peter Bourjos, OF, LAA

I needed to get a pure speed guy on the team and Borjous was the best one left that I liked. Will Venable was the other guy I was looking at here but he went right before.

Well - the second break came and I was happy for it. I now had addressed a lot of areas. I had my entire IF, OF and most of my staff filled. A glaring open spot was CI and I needed to get a MI and a second C soon. Time to grab a beer and get some fresh air. I needed to make the last 10 picks really count.

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#8 Post by deansdaddy »

Coming out of the first 20 picks you want to have most of your squad filled up. The last third then get used to address any glaring holes, grab sleepers and build depth. Coming back from the second break here was the roster:

C- M Napoli
1B - Miguel Cabrera 3B - M Young CI -
2B - B Phillips SS - D Jeter MI -
OF - Holliday, Cruz, Torres, Pagan, Raburn, Byrd
UT - Bourjos
SP - Sabathia, Haren, Kuroda, Vazquez, Matusz, Garcia
RP - Bell, Street

Two big holes stood out, CI and MI, and I would have to fill those out soon. I would also be on the lookout for more SP as well as looking to add another bullpen arm at some point. It was clear even at this point that I needed to get some more pop into this lineup.

Round 21, Pick 242 - Miguel Tejada, SS/3B, HOU

Tejada is the opposite of a sexy pick. He's a pretty ugly pick but for me he was practical. He qualifies at SS and 3B and I had a need at both CI and MI. MI in particular was looking ugly. I can hope that Raburrn will gain eligibility there eventually, but til then I need a body. Guess I could have taken Jhonny Peralta who is younger but Tejada should put up similar stats. Not one of my favorite picks. Jake McGee goes at the end of the round and so does Michael Pineda (who I was just setting my sights on).

Round 22, Pick 263 - Ervin Santana, SP, LAA

Sometimes after making a pick you don't really love you have to come back strong. Santana likely qualifies as my best pick of the entire draft. I needed some K's and I got him at a hge discount. He was easily the top P on my board. I'll admit I am not a huge fan and worry about him imploding, but there was no downside to where I got him. Makes me feel better about the Kuroda and Garcia picks and about missing on Pineda.

Round 23, Pick 266 - Hong-Chih Kuo, RP, LAD

I could have taken Fernando Rodney here, but I didn't want to undermine my plan on ERA just to chase a few more saves. I decide to go with an old favorite in Kuo, who could find him self closing again at some point this year. If not he'll do what he always does, provide great ratios and K/9 whenever I decide to throw him in my lineup. Seth Smith was on the board and I thought about him, but I had a couple other bats out there that I liked as well.

Round 24, Pick 287 - AJ Pierzynski, C, MIN

This steal turned out to be one of the more funny ande tense moments of my draft. I needed a second C badly and after I took Kuo the last remaining C's started to go. Much to my surprise no one chose AJ. My pick was coming up and I wasn't going to let AJ slide any further. A nice reward for waiting so long at the position. Then we got to the guy on the phone picking right before me. After getting him on the line he started calling out C's names. Napoli, Montero, Y Molina, Arencibia, Ruiz even Jaso. At least 3 minutes had gone by. With every name he called out my heart raced. Finally, feeling I had been more than fair I raised my hand and asked the facilitator if I could jump his pick if he couldn't come up with a name. The facilitator gave him one more chance and when he couldn't think of anyone put me on the clock. I practically shouted out Pierzynski and the entire room started laughing. The guy on the phone grabbed Chris Sale and came back with Ramon Hernandez the next round. Sometimes it helps to get a little lucky.

Round 25, Pick 290 - Scott Baker, SP, MIN

I am a Baker fan and was happy to get him here. I had Brandon Belt in my sights but he went the pick right before. I was really pissed about that one. But Baker was a nice pick here and makes a great #8 SP. Maybe he finally puts it together this year. In any case finding an SP with his upside this late was a real find. My last two SP picks had me feeling pretty good about my rotation.

Round 26, Pick 311 - Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL

At this point of any draft guys starts throwing things at the wall. I still needed to get a CI and Chipper Jones caught my eye. He wasn't in the plan, but really he was the perfect guy for this team at this point. Chipper looks great this spring, I'll slot him in and ride him as long as I can. In the NFBC you can swap hitters out on Friday's. So hopefully I will be able to get the most out of Chipper with some savvy managing. I still will need to get some additional help at CI and know who I like for that. Chipper joins Jeter on this squad, and it's kind of nice to have a couple of future Hall of Famers and two of my favorite players on board.

Round 27, Pick 314 - Jose Lopez, 3B, COL

At this point other teams were filling out their rotations and grabbing upside arms. My rotation was set in my mind and I felt like I needed to get upside bats instead. Power was a weakness and I needed to backfill this roster behind graybeards Tejada and Jones. Jose Lopez is a big sleeper of mine this year and he backs up 3B/2B/MI/CI in one nice pick. He will gain 2B eligibility early in the season. Moving to Colorado means a return to 20+ HR's is a real possibility. I was locked onto Lopez way before my pick and no one else out there came into my mind. I got the guy I wanted here.

Round 28, Pick 335 - Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS, BOS

I was eyeing Michael Brantley with this pick but he went. Lowrie was a name that kind of popped in my head and I could see him producing in Boston if they move Scutaro. More depth here, but if I right now he would likely be my first player to cut if I see a player I want via FAAB early in the season.

Round 29, Pick 338 - Matt LaPorta, 1B/OF, CLE

I needed some more power and wanted more depth at CI. LaPorta provides this as well as added depth at OF. He also took Brantley's place as my lucky Indian on this squad. It's now or never for LaPorta and the Indians should play him enough that 20 HR's shouldn't be a stretch. His minor league pedigree says there is even more power upside here.

Round 30, Pick 359 - Brett Wallace, 1B, HOU

My second favorite pick of this draft was my last one. I own Wallace all over the place this year. He has bounced around more than any Top Prospect of recent memory. He has had a blistering spring and locked up the starting 1B job in HOU. I know ST stats don't mean anything, but for a young player they can often show that maybe they are finally putting it together. Love the power upside of this pick.

So that's was it. I felt like I did real well in the endgame of this draft. My experience from last year told me that I would likely want to carry more bats than arms on my bench since I can swap hitters in and out on Friday's. I have lots of movable parts and a nice mix of young and old. The only thing I didn't get was a third closer - but I will be able to throw some FAAB at the first one that pops up. I think this team was one of the Top 3 to come out of this draft. As far as the overall goes - I think I have given myself a team that can compete. If some of my late round picks prove to be gems this team will be tough to beat. It all begins this week - should be a fun ride.

C- M Napoli, AJ Peirzynski
1B - Miguel Cabrera 3B - M Young CI - C Jones/Lopez
2B - B Phillips SS - D Jeter MI - Tejada/Lowrie
OF - Holliday, Cruz, Torres, Pagan, Raburn, Byrd, Bourjos
UT - Wallace, LaPorta
SP - Sabathia, Haren, Kuroda, Vazquez, Matusz, Garcia, Santana, Baker
RP - Bell, Street, Kuo

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#9 Post by deansdaddy »

Okay - after 1 1/2 weeks my DP Live team is off too a solid start.

A quick look at the roster shows a couple tweaks:

C- M Napoli, AJ Peirzynski
1B - Miguel Cabrera 3B - M Young CI - C Jones
2B - B Phillips SS - D Jeter MI - Tejada
OF - Holliday, Cruz, Torres, Pagan, Byrd
UT - Wallace
SP - Sabathia, Haren, Kuroda, Vazquez, Garcia, Santana, Baker
RP - Bell, Street
RES - J Lopez, , Bourjos, Raburn, Willingham
Matusz, Harrison, Kuo

LaPorta and Lowrie were let go - Willingham brought on board and Harrison replaced D Braden (who I grabbed last week).

The team is sitting in second place with 92.5 points and in the DP Live Overall stands at #15 (out of 228) and #39 (out of 780) for the Online 12 team contest.

We are solid across the board to start off with the exception of SB's - where we could use a boost. We bid on Jennings this week but lost out to a crazy $300 bid - so we will have to continue to be on the lookout and hope that Bourjos can start to get on base a little more often. I also got outbid on J Walden this week and would have liked to have added him as a third closer. Likely should have gone a little higher here - and I'll try to add another one at some point.

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#10 Post by deansdaddy »

Week 3 was a bumpy one for my DP squad and led me to make a few changes via FAAB on Sunday.

My team slumped to a .258 36 R 3 HR 31 R 3 SB week on offense showing a glaring lack of power and speed.

My Pitching remained solid with 3.569 ERA 4 W 1.241 WHIP 41 K's 4 SV's. Dan Haren saved the week with his efforts as many of my starters struggled.

I finished in second placed with 83 points, meaning I lost about 10 points last week. Not surprisingly, I slid down the overall standings as well down to #37 (out of 228) in the Live DP and down to 112 out of 780 in the Online DP contest.

I had two big targets this week in FAAB, one being Jon Herrera who has been as hot as can be and stealing playing time from my own struggling Jose Lopez. Speed is a need on this squad, so I made an aggressive bid of $75 dollars on him and cut Jose Lopez in the process. I won that bid with a runner-up bid of $32.

My next target was Jed Lowrie. If you remember I drafted Lowrie with my 28th pick. I loved the upside if he could somehow get himself steady playing time. Sure enough he was getting himself in the lineup and producing while Marco Scutaro was scuffling. I had cut Lowrie at the first FAAB period and I was hoping I could get him back and dump Miguel Tejada in the process. I placed a $31 bid and that was enough to beat the $23 runner-up bid. Luckily, I threw Lowrie into my lineup and sat Derek Jeter (since he only had two games scheduled Mon/Thurs) and he rewarded me with a 4-5 day, a homer, and 4 RBI's. I was tiring of Tejada's nightly 0-fer's.

My two other moves were more long-term and I wasted a little money as I got both guys with no one else bidding. I dropped HC Kuo and replaced him with Jake McGee at $25. I still like Mcgee to get saves at some point so I was trying to get a potential third closer cheap before he gets the job (which I still believe he will at some point.) For perspective, the other hot closer of the week was Sergio Santos who ended up going for $175. I knew Santos would go for big bucks to someone and I wasn't buying him. Hopefully IU can afford to hold McGee long enough to reap the saves I think are coming at some point.

Next was the toughest move of the week and one I hope I don't regret. I picked up Domonic Brown for $17 and cut Brett Wallace. I really hated to let go of Wallace, but he was somewhat expendable in a 12 team league. He doesn't offer any speed and hasn't really shown that much power. I am hurting for speed so I couldn't cut bait on P Bourjos just yet (although he has been terrible) and my move on Brown hopefully is another case of being a week or two early rather than late. Reports are he will go out on a rehab stint next week and could be back in early May. Again, my need for some speed helped me make this move and I hope he comes back and steals some bases for me. I think he may struggle to regain some power at first, but hopefully he will run more as a result. In any case, I think Philly gets him in the lineup as soon as he is ready.

The only guy I bid on and lost was Alexi Ogando. I bid $88 and he went for $96. I was going to cut Javy Vazquez if I won Ogando. I am okay sending Vazquez to the bench and starting Harrison. Hopefully he can get some MPH back on his fastball. If not I will cut bait soon.

So here is the roster heading into week 4. Hopefully Lowrie's start is a prelude to a resurgent week that moves me back up the standings.:
C- M Napoli, AJ Peirzynski
1B - Miguel Cabrera 3B - M Young CI - C Jones
2B - B Phillips SS - D Jeter MI - Herrera
OF - Holliday, Cruz, Willingham, Pagan, Raburn
UT - M Byrd
SP - Sabathia, Haren, Kuroda, Garcia, Santana, Baker, Harrison
RP - Bell, Street
RES - Jed Lowrie , Bourjos, Torres, D Brown
Matusz, Vazquez, McGee

southpaw

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#11 Post by southpaw »

Love the moves you made. Surprised you didn't get outbid for Lowrie. I've been reading the tea leaves with Francona and he's going all in on Lowrie at this point. That may change if he comes back to earth but I say ride him while he's bucking.
I also bid on Herrera in my WCOFB league and lost out. I bid $38 and he went for $78 so I wasn't that close. I wanted him pretty bad so I guess I should have been more aggressive. Oh well. One notable drop in FAAB this week was D. Brown so like you did this week, I will look to grab him on Sunday.
I also took a flyer on Gee. Got him for $7. No other bids. Colon and Maholm went for much higher amounts. Hopefully Gee can have another solid outing and put pressure on the Mets brass to keep him in the big leagues.
I'm 2nd in my league but injuries are taking it's toll on me with Hamilton and Torres out. Luckily I drafted David Murphy for the sole reason that he would be my handcuff for Hamilton. I also have sorry ass Ludwick in for Torres. It was a tough call between him and newly acquired Milton Bradley ($3).

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#12 Post by deansdaddy »

You are playing in a deeper league than my DP - so the pickings will be slimmer. I think if you have the room, it is worth taking a shot at Brown while he won't cost you much. That said if I see something better hit the wire I won't hesitate to go after it at the expense of Brown. Francisco has played well enough - so Brown will likely be in a platoon at best when he makes it back. I think he might really start to pay dividends later in the season - so you have to weigh your other options and if you can carry him until he is ready to be an every week starter again (which might not be until June). Being that you already have a dead spot occupied by Hamilton for a couple weeks you might not have the luxury of taking on another injury case. Still - this does shine a light on a type of player that you should always be on the lookout for. In a league like WCOFB or NFBC without any DL spots, it can sometimes be difficult for owners to wait on injured players and if they drop them and you have room, you can scoop them up at a discount often.

emoryup

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#13 Post by emoryup »

Southpaw-
We are in the same WCOFB league. Your team is solidly constructed (as evidenced by your current place atop the standings--nicely done). As for me, I'm a *bit* further down but I have to hope that some of my guys (Crawford, Gardner, Jeter, Kila, Maggs) get going as they have contributed a big fat ZERO so far. Crawford might be waking up as he looked better in Monday's Patriots Day game. Injuries are killing me as well--Braden's situation could be serious and it looks like V-Mart could be headed to the DL for awhile.
I was able to get Herrera to hopefully be a spark for me. I think the Rockies organization calls him the Human Spark Plug. Now that he's on my team, he'll cool off quickly for sure. :cry:
Sizemore is back and could provide another much-needed boost for my sorry squad.
Anyway, best of luck and we'll see what happens this Sunday's FAAB. It will be interesting!

Ryan-
I always enjoy reading your stuff. Please keep it up!

Cheers,
Emory

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#14 Post by deansdaddy »

emoryup wrote:Southpaw-

I was able to get Herrera to hopefully be a spark for me. I think the Rockies organization calls him the Human Spark Plug. Now that he's on my team, he'll cool off quickly for sure. :cry:

Ryan-
I always enjoy reading your stuff. Please keep it up!

Cheers,
Emory
Hey Emory - thanks for checking in. I caught some of your preseason work over at FantasyPros911 so I see you are expanding your horizons as well. I highlighted your Herrera quote because I said the same thing to one of my pals about him yesterday since I brought him on board to a couple of teams. :D

This is the first season I haven't played in a league against you in awhile - I'm jumping in a WCOFB next year for sure. Good luck in all your leagues and feel free to keep us updated on your WCOFB league with southpaw.

southpaw

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#15 Post by southpaw »

emory - that's right, I forgot that it was you who stole Herrera from me. ;)
Guess I need to watch what I say around here now....give away all my secrets.... :)

emoryup

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#16 Post by emoryup »

Ryan-
I'm kind of glad we aren't in a league together since you always beat me! :) Somewhat more seriously, I'll be glad to post some updates about the WCOFB teams. I have a couple entries in their Online Championship and thus far they run the gamut from first place to last place. I'm OK with a last place team as long as my first overall team stays right where it currently sits!

Let's hope there IS a WCOFB next year. Plenty of angry folks on the football side of things due to delayed payments. I love their baseball format so I hope they can survive the current storm.

Southpaw--
I HAD to get Herrera since my team was performing so terribly. Like I said, he'll go from sparkplug to wet blanket now that I rostered him. :evil:

Alright, I need to at least pretend that I'm doing my real job for awhile. I'll try to check into these boards every day or so to see what Southpaw's planning for FAAB and check on Ryan's musings... :geek:

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#17 Post by deansdaddy »

Week 4 was a solid week for my DP squad. My offense woke back up and when the week was over I was back in first place with 86 points.

I also rebounded in the overall standings moving up to #19 out of 220 in the Live DP and #65 out of 780 in the Overall DP standings.

My team hit .318 for the week with 49 runs, 9 HR's and 48 RBI's. We only managed 2 steals - and sit in last place in this category with a paltry 11 for the season.

On the Pitching side I had a 2.85 ERA, 4 W's, 1.07 ERA, 56 K's and 2 SV's.

Last weeks pickups Lowrie and Herrera were a mixed bag as Lowrie had a great week and Jon Herrera went back to being Jon Herrera. Hopefully he can get back to being a sparkplug, cause I need someone to provide a little speed with both Angel Pagan and Andres Torres on the DL and Phillips not running since returning from his own injury.

My third pickup last week was Jake Mcgee at $25. I ended up cutting him this week for Justin Smoak at $27. Smoak was a conditional bid behind Ryan Roberts who I lost out on. I was the runner up on him with a $27 bid as well. Last week I cut Brett Wallace for McGee and I will admit, I kind of regretted it a bit when Chipper Jones came up lame mid week. I realized I had released all my backup CI and needed to bring someone on board in case Chipper gets hurt again (which he will - I know it). I actually like Smoak a lot, and feel he is a very similar player to LaPorta and Wallace - two guys I dropped previously. I would have like to have kept McGee around a bit longer - but I am carrying three DL'd OF's at the moment in Torres, Pagan and Domonic Brown. I also am holding onto Brian Matusz. That left Marlon Byrd, Mcgee and Javy Vazquez on the chopping block.

I let go of Marlon Byrd for Carlos Gomez this week - and spent $81 dollars to make sure I got him. The runner up was $45. I am desperate for some speed and he was coming off a hot week, which cost me FAAB dollars since I felt I had to get him. He is not a player I love - but a necessary evil for me. I have to gain some ground in this category if I want to have a real chance at the overall titles. I am WAY off the pace at this point. Still - I have to improve the 9 pts (out of 780) that I have in SB's right now.

I actually put Vazquez on the block and made a bid on Anibal Sanchez. He went for $121 and I was the runner-up at $84. I tried to steal him a bit and honestly I am okay with carrying Vazquez on my bench for another week. Two weeks I have tried to get rid of him and twice I wasn't successful. Maybe this means he is going to turn it around? I am not holding my breath.

Hoping I get some good news this week regarding some of my injury guys and I will have some decisions to make once they all start to return. Ryan Raburn may add 2B/MI eligibility by then - which will be a nice luxury for me. Onto Week 5

edit - I actually remembered that I also had the runner up bid in on Ryan Madson this week - but I lost that one as well. I had Roberts and Smoak as conditionals behind Madson and Gomez and Smoak was third on both lists.

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#18 Post by deansdaddy »

Week 5 was a middle of the road effort for my squad.

They hit .251/39/12/50/3 for the week. The HR and RBI totals were season highs for the team, but I still only managed 3 SB's for the week. Carlos Gomez chipped in 2 of those and I am heartened by the fact that Bourjos got one last night. He was thrown out 3 times last week - so hopefully he can start to be a little more successful. I actually went out and picked up Erik Aybar this week and slipped him into my lineup for Derek Jeter looking for some help in this category. I cut Josh Willingham and it was my only pickup of the week.

On the Pitching side I got a 3.80/2/1.32/44/4 week from my staff. The ERA and WHIP numbers were the worst I've posted thus far - but like Matt Harrison I was due for a correction this week. Actually Harrison was the main culprit here with 4.2 innings of work and 11 ER in two starts.

On the bright side my key bats Cabrera/Holliday/Cruz/Phillips all came to life last week. Also newly acquired Justin Smoak looks like he will provide some more production. I need to get Pagan and/or Andres Torres back soon and Domonic Brown has taken another step closer to rejoining the Phillies. Jon Herrera had a terrible week and if he doesn't show anything this week I will likely toss him back for some pitching.

My staff has been solid so far - but I am still on the lookout for another arm here. Brian Matusz return would help most of all, and I will give Vazquez another chance this week to convince me not to cut him. Harrison is also on a very short rope at this point.

I dropped to second place by the end of the week with 81.5 points. In the overalls as of today I am at #30 (of of 228) and #121 (out of 780) in the two 12 team overall contests.

southpaw

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#19 Post by southpaw »

Hey Ryan - just wondering if you have an update for us in your DP league. Curious to see where you stand now and what changes you've made in the last couple weeks.

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#20 Post by deansdaddy »

Let's put it this way - I'm glad that May is over. I had a pretty lousy month - although the last week has been pretty promising.

I finally had my starting OF back for the first time since week 1 and it lasted all of one game - as now Holliday is hurt.

I have slumped down to 7th plsce - but honestly everything is so tight - I am a prolonged hot streak from getting right back up into 1st - so I'm not that worried. My power and speed have been coming on as of late. With Torres and Pagan and Matusz and Cruz finally all back and playing I fianlly have reserve spots to play with again and I did grab Uehara and Venters (not Crow unfortunately) hoping one emerges.

Mike Napoli is on a tear right now and Carlos Pena has been good as well.

I could really use a Miguel Cabrera hot streak right about now.

On the pitching side - I hit a little speed bump lately. I was leading most of the categories - but can't buy a W lately.

I took a little break from writing stuff lately - been coaching a lot of little league games for my son and daughter lately. I will try to start posting again a little more - thanks for asking.

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#21 Post by deansdaddy »

Hadn't updated this team for awhile - but the week heading into the break was my best of the season and has vaulted this team back into a share of 1st place with 81.5 points. My team was the best DP Live team of the week out of 228 and was the third best team out of 780. My pitching came to life as CC, Haren and J Garcia won all 6 of their starts to help me grab 8 last week and gain alot of ground in a category I was lagging in.

June started with this team down in 7th place but as I noted - things were tight enough for me to get back in it and we have been able to do that. We also have moved back up into contention in the overall contest - back up to #45 in the DP Live and #145 in the Online.

Ty Wigginton was acquired via FAAB for $37 (runner up $14) and he was worth every penny as I caught him right on his massive hot streak. Matt Holliday has also heated up and is finally producing for this squad. Again - my team is healthy at this point and I am hoping my big injuries are behind me (good luck with that one). My additions the last couple weeks have focused on speed with Roger Bernandina having been obtained a couple weeks back and Bonafacio this week. I also grabbed David Freese for added depth and used him last week as Wigginton slumped.

The core of this team hasn't changed as my moves have been around the edges. The difference is I have no one on my team with the dreaded DL next to their name for the first time all year which is giving me room to finally build some depth on the pitching staff.

The second half awaits and I am just glad that I have this team in position to manage it to victory.

southpaw

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#22 Post by southpaw »

Nice job man. Thanks for the update.
My WCOFB team is still in first in my league and 4th in the overall. I'm still lagging in steals and BA which have pretty much plagued me all season. Desmond can't get on base to get any further SB's and Torres has been a big disappointment in that area as I expected 30+ from him over the course of the season. However, I have made up ground in HR and RBI as Reynolds, Pena and Espinosa all had great Junes and Hamilton came back from the DL. I picked up Furcal for not much $ a couple weeks ago when he came off the DL but he hasn't done anything yet. I'm kind of hoping he's a source of steals down the stretch.

deansdaddy

Re: Ryan Carey's NFBC DP Live Team

#23 Post by deansdaddy »

Well done. Torres and Pagan were badly missed by my team and Torres is still MIA. I almost cut him last week - but decided to hold him for now. Still hoping he gets back on track. Keep up the good work in WCOFB!

Post Reply