NFBC FAAB Advice

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#11 Post by deansdaddy »

Mike makes good points that fall right into the category of varying your bidding process from week to week.

Jason - I will also point you again to the conditional bid process. For me this can be the key to being successful at FAAB.

Take your example - say you have Rauch pegged as the guy you want to acquire most. But you also see other speculative closers out there like Fuentes, Benoit, Massett and Sean Burnett out there. You have the ability to structure your bides in a way that can usually ensure you come away with someone even if you miss your primary target. You can even list these players you are bidding on in multiple bids.

Example:

BID 1
1. Acquire Jon Rauch, $50, cut Oliver Perez
2. Acquire Brian Fuentes, $26, cut Oliver Perez
3. Acquire J Benoit, $2, cut Oliver Perez
4. Acquire S Burnett $1 cut Oliver Perez
5. ?
6. ?

BID 2
1. Acquire Brian Fuentes, $25, cut Luis Castillo
2. Acquire M Ellis $1 cut Luis Castillo
3. Acquire M Izturis $1 cut Luis Castillo
4. Acquire Brenden Ryan $1 cut Luis Castillo
5. Acquire Jack Wilson $1 cut Luis Castillo

So here I go after Rauch as my primary target in Bid 1 and back him up with three other bodies while dropping a useless player who just got cut in Perez. I back him up with Fuentes and then a bunch of lesser players. There is no limit to how many conditional bids you can make - so if you have to get a body - list as many names as you want.

Bid 2 shows that while Rauch is my main target - I also like Fuentes - so I head off this bid list with him and back him up with a bunch of other players - mostly MI. So the way my bids are structured - Rauch is the primary target, with Fuentes being #2. Ideally I will win both players and be happy. You may notice that I have Fuentes for a dollar more in Bid 1 than Bid 2. Why? Because the system will process bids in the order of dollar value assigned. So say I miss out on Rauch in bid one - but win the bidding on Fuentes -by placing an extra dollar on the conditional bid I then will drop Perez. If multiple bids on the same player have the same dollar amount- the system will drop Castillo here since Fuentes is listed first in that Bid. So the way I have it - if I miss on Rauch - I ensure that if I get Fuentes - Perez will be the guy dropped for him. Then my Castillo bid will go down to the MI I have listed.

As far as how much to bid and how to structure your bids - really that is up for you to decide. The nature of FAAB in the NFBC is that it can be hard to predict what the spending habits of your fellow owners will be. That said if you think the saves that Rauch will get you are worth it - than don't be afraid to go the extra dollar.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#12 Post by southpaw »

Thanks for all the information, Ryan. It's a huge help.
As for Rauch, he did go undrafted in this particular league but I'm going to pass for now with the news that Dotel pitched fine in a minor league game and may be good to go by opening day.

But the information and tips on bidding is immensely valuable and will most definitely help me out.

SteveB
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Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#13 Post by SteveB »

deansdaddy wrote:Well I agree with your statement - the art is of course determining how much you spend.

Which part of what was above are you disagreeing with? :)

.

Well I did say "tiny" . it was more of the overall cautious feel. Things like keep a weekly budget, don't overspend on rookies, don't spend too much on one player, save for September.

All those are not wrong per se but you cant handcuff yourself in a set of rules. Simply because there is players EVERY year that can make your year. just last year Posey literally won me a league and it cost me 705 to get him....next highest bid was 590 so i overbid a bit but i had no worries. In another league i bid 375 and didn't get him.

I know perfectly well players come around with his impact only every few years. I know if you did this on every player you read a hyped rookie report on, you would get burned a lot of times.

It does happen though, don't be afraid to jump in with what is needed it can be a huge game changer.

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#14 Post by deansdaddy »

I agree with that 100%

I re-posted these comments in the same order they were posted last year. I think Todd hit that point well in his post (in ALL CAPS to boot)-so I know I didn't feel the need to repeat it in mine at the time.

But - I will say I don't consider them rules - just observations. I don't think there are any rules when it comes to FAAB. It's a feel thing. Sometimes caution is warranted and sometimes you just have to go for it.

But it comes down to style - and I know that I like to make moves, almost every week - so I like to have money to do that every week - even Sept.

SteveB
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Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#15 Post by SteveB »

Yeah rules is not the best word....more like casual guidances. I don't remember Todd's post but i am sure i read it. You will see my bids this year, I am not afraid to spend it like I stole it. :D

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#16 Post by deansdaddy »

I will admit - I am sometimes more cautious than I should be - but often that means I won't always chase the most obvious choice on the list.

I am definitely one of those guys where that hot prospect gets called up, you go to look at the FA list and realize I grabbed him two weeks earlier for $2 :lol:

I am a lot like bjoak - I throw a lot of stuff against the wall. Sometimes this backfires and you end up cutting someone a week too early.

I am definitely making more of an attempt to not roster too many part-time players or rookies. Gotta have hitters who play.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#17 Post by southpaw »

Here is my current squad:

C B. Pena
C J. Posada
1b J. Votto
2b B. Phillips
SS I. Desmond
3b M. Reynolds
MI D. Espinosa
CI C. Pena
U P. Polanco
OF J. Hamilton
OF J. Upton
OF C. Young
OF A. Torres
OF L. Morrison

SP D. Haren
SP S. Marcum
SP T. Cahill
SP I. Kennedy
SP G. Floyd
SP B. Norris
RP D. Storen
RP J. Axford
FP J. Bard
FP J. Venters

Bench
T. Wigginton
L. Cain
D. Murphy (TEX)
R. Ludwick

S. Burnett
J.A. Happ
J. McDonald
M. Rzepczynski

In looking over the ww, there is hardly nothing in the hitting department available to bid on. Kearns and Andruw Jones are examples.
Pitching has a few options in the saves area. I've mentioned before Rauch is there, Contreras, and Casilla. All three look viable for opening week saves. I just don't know if I should be attacking this line this early in the game.
I have Axford who should be solid but Storen looks shaky by all indications. That's the main reason I drafted Burnett although I missed out on Clippard.
Is it worth it to spend $ on the possibility of couple first week saves?
I imagine this will get a little easier once we get started. I'm finding these first moves to be the toughest because I'm not really sure where my deficiencies lie yet.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#18 Post by southpaw »

What is the thinking on trying to acquire 2 start SP's each week?
Is this common in this particular format? I would think you want to try and maximize starts in order to acquire K's and W's.
Say for example a guy like Barry Enright. Looks like he will start Monday's game against the Cubs and Sunday against the Reds.
I have a guy to drop that I no longer need/want. Probably a good idea, right?
I'm sure you wouldn't want to spend too much on these type of transactions though.
Just trying to get a feel for this type of strategy the merits/negatives.

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#19 Post by deansdaddy »

32 man roster? Is this a WCOFB team?

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#20 Post by southpaw »

Yes on both your questions, Ryan.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#21 Post by southpaw »

Well, I ended up picking up Enright for $13. I had two other "two starters" ahead of him in Leake and Lohse but they went for more $$. So I got my 3rd choice. Not sure I should have taken a chance on Andrew Cashner. Would have been betting on a little more upside.
So I've got 4 guys with two starts this week. (Floyd, McDonald, Happ, Enright)

Here are the rest of my stats for Period 1: 3/31 - 4/3
AB R H HR RBI SB AVG WINS ERA SV IP K WHIP
149 25 40 6 23 1 .26846 0 4.247 1 29.2 27 1.348


11th out of 14.
Axford blew the big save on opening day. Only one quality start in Haren although Cahill got me 8 k's in less than 5 innings which was a pleasant surprise.
Hitting was okay. Desmond 0 for 13 was the lowlight. And Texas hit a bajillion homers this weekend but Hamilton had none.

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#22 Post by deansdaddy »

Hey Jason - sorry was drafting in Ron Shandler's NY Roto 500 league all day yesterday and didn't get back to you on this. I have no experience with the WCOFB format, but from what I have read about it seems you want to have more quality SP on hand then you might in the NFBC. I'm seen some suggest that targeting about 12-14 starts a week is a good number to shoot for.

Is this a Sat team or a team in the overall? In any case it would seem like you could keep that last spot for "streaming" in two-start SP's until you find one that claims the spot for himself.

I am assuming you made a run at Contreras and came up short. He and Burnett were the two hot "closers" out there this week. You did well in grabbing Burnett at your draft - you saved yourself a ton of FAAB right there. I made passive bids on Contreras, knowing that there were others who would likely outbid me. In one league I owned Madson, so I decided to gamble that Contreras doesn't get the job outright and Madson gets some chances. The real key this week is to not forget to take a good look at who other teams cut. I know a lot of people advocate spending big early - but for me that often means Week 2 rather than Week 1. Especially in a SAT league. Often, you find yourself with owners playing with FAAB for the first time and not so adept at placing bis. Week 1 always has a built in inflation due to the excitment of the new season. In my NFBC SAT league and owner just paid $456 for Melky Cabrera :shock: In the same week I paid $9 for Allen Craig. I am always happy to see my competitors blow half their FAAB on mediocre players.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#23 Post by southpaw »

Thanks Ryan. No worries about yesterday. Just getting my feet wet here and some of this is trial and error for me.

Well, my Enright plan just went up in smoke. Just read that because of yesterday's postponement, Saunders has been moved to today and Enright to tomorrow. With an off day on Thursday, Saunders will be the 2 start pitcher for Arizona and not Enright. Oh well. Didn't cost me too much to make this error. And it was definitely an error not to take into account the cancellation yesterday. So wish I had gotten Cashner now.

Yes, got somewhat lucky on drafting Burnett. Wanted a handcuff for Storen and grabbed him late in the draft.
My passive bid on Contreras was also shot down. He went for 3 hundred and something in my league.

Looks like I'm only going to get 11 starts this week because of the Enright error. I'll have to be a little more diligent about that in the future.

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#24 Post by deansdaddy »

Can't you starts Enright - then swap him out for someone else on Friday? Even if it's one of your MR's you can maybe get some extra innings that way.

I really have to do a WCOFB team next year - I need to play to more practically understand the different approach needed to be successful. I know Perry and bjoak are playing there - so perhaps they can give you some advice here.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#25 Post by southpaw »

deansdaddy wrote:Can't you starts Enright - then swap him out for someone else on Friday? Even if it's one of your MR's you can maybe get some extra innings that way.

I really have to do a WCOFB team next year - I need to play to more practically understand the different approach needed to be successful. I know Perry and bjoak are playing there - so perhaps they can give you some advice here.
Yes, I plan to do that. Just won't get any extra starts out of it. But hopefully some K's and whatever else....

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#26 Post by RobDMay »

I won the Jose C sweepstakes in the sat Rayn. I was desperate for another closer so I threw out the 307 bid I just hope he is decent and Lidge's arm stays dead for awhile. What was crazier the Melky bid, the guy who also bid like ~$350 something, or the guy that got Crow for ~$250 with no other bids.

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#27 Post by deansdaddy »

I think you did well to get him. I actually had a bid at $101 - I knew I wouldn't get him - but I wasn't going to let anyone steal him.

I also bid on Burnett - but he went for big bucks as well.

The real shock was that the same guy bought Cabrera and Crow - and spent $700 + dollars to do it. I actually really like Crow - so who knows there. But $254 on a player no one else was going to bid on was a miscalculation. At least with Melky - someone else bid $256.

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#28 Post by RobDMay »

This week will be all about Zach Britton I can only imagine what he goes for.

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Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#29 Post by viper »

FWIW, I play in an AL-only league with a Wednesday FAAB day. The league has a $100 FAAB budget but does allow $0 bids. Britton went for $44 with a $20 runner-up bid.

My big bid was for Hafner at $21. He was there because during the draft, the UT slot was filled such that Hafner, Thome & Johnson were leftovers. We have 1-day eligibility so most team with DH-only players at the draft now find those players with positional eligibility. My player was Scott who is now OF eligible. I also spent way too much on pitching and need power. The Nix-Hafner power debate was very short and one-sided.
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deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#30 Post by deansdaddy »

RobDMay wrote:This week will be all about Zach Britton I can only imagine what he goes for.
Will be real interesting. We get to see him again against the red hot Rangers on Friday. If he shuts them down - it will be insane. If he gets spanked , he could be a relative bargain.

Glenneration X

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#31 Post by Glenneration X »

Interesting topic......

My recommendation, if in a mixed league don't break the bank on Britton. He's got talent, but is still a rookie pitcher, pitches in a hitter's park, pitches in a division filled with hitter's parks, pitches in a division with the Yanks, Bosox, & Jays, and Matusz will be back in a month. Remember, Matusz is just as talented and took plenty of lumps before he started putting it together.

For the poster playing in the WCOFB, I had some success in that contest last year. Streaming pitchers is a necessity there to compete in the counting stats. Still, be wary of who you stream. Throwing whip & era killers out there for double starts a few times will doom you in those categories. Use the FP spots wisely. Good luck, maybe we'll be battling at the end of the year there.

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#32 Post by RobDMay »

Given whats available in our particular NFBC league and what some players went for last week I think it will be a feeding frenzy on Britton even more so if he goes off tonight.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#33 Post by southpaw »

Thoughts on Esmil Rogers?

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#34 Post by deansdaddy »

Hey Glenn,

Nice to see you over here at MB! We have a couple guys new to the FAAB process - glad to have you drop in to give some WCOFB advice.

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Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#35 Post by viper »

I guess it's safe to say that Britton will be the highest bid on player this week in the NFBC. My guess is that $500 will not be enough. It will be fun to check it out tomorrow evening around 9pm.
The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh

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deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#36 Post by deansdaddy »

Well - I know that I plunked down some serious cash on Jordan Walden tonight in both of Perry's 15 team leagues.

We play with NFBC rules - and I needed help at closer on both teams. One I have Farnsworth and A Bailey and I cut HC Kuo to get Walden - I think I spent $333 here. I'm hanging onto Motte awhile longer here as well.

In the other league I have F Cordero, B League, McGee and Storen - But I still felt that getting Walden was the right move for my team.

I think I went even higher here - $378

Hope I'm right here - 40 saves or bust.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#37 Post by southpaw »

I've actually had a decent week and have climbed to 4th out of 14 overall.

Here are my overall numbers:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG W ERA SV IP K WHIP
387 67 14 65 6 .28682 5 3.750 4 96.0 81 1.188

I see Torres went down with some sort of Achilles injury so that can't be good. I'll most likely have to insert Ludwick this week from my bench.
I'm going to take Glenn's advice and not look to just stream for the sake of streaming. I have a stable ERA/WHIP going right now and I don't want to blow it. I did end up with 12 starts this week so my K's look good; now if I could only pick up a few W's.... :)

Any idea how much $ it will take to grab Esmil Rogers from the WW this week?
Britton was drafted in my league so he won't be out there to fight over. Just scrubs like Chen, Livan, Maholm, Saunders and Arrieta.

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Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#38 Post by viper »

My AL only league has the Britton sweepstakes tonight. He was not eligible for the draft because he had already been sent down. He was not eligible last week because he was not brought up prior to Sunday morning when OnRoto created its list of available players. I will make a token bid but I am expecting really, really high bids. Our $200 budget may very well see a $100+ bid as the winner.

I think there should be a Britton thread as soon as the NFBC bids are posted with winning bid noted. Runner-up bids would be neat to see also.
The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh

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Glenneration X

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#39 Post by Glenneration X »

deansdaddy wrote:Hey Glenn,

Nice to see you over here at MB! We have a couple guys new to the FAAB process - glad to have you drop in to give some WCOFB advice.
No problem Ryan. I've been a Mastersball subscriber for a couple years now, but just recently started checking out the boards.

Britton should be interesting tonight. Curious how high the overbidding goes.

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Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#40 Post by Todd Zola »

I will keep the name(s) under wraps because the owner(s) may (or may not) play in the NFBC, but in the two NFBC style leagues that Perry runs that draft in December and January, Britton went for 165 and 210.

I would consider these leagues akin to an NFBC satellite in terms of competitiveness.
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Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#41 Post by viper »

In my one AL only league that did FAAB last night with a $200 budget and $0 bids allowed, Britton went for $108 with a $101 bid missing out. Two owners choose not to bid. I understand that because why bid at all if your bid was going to be very low. My $1 bid failed.
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southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#42 Post by southpaw »

My Esmil Rogers bid of $29 failed as he went for $36 in my WCOFB league.

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#43 Post by RobDMay »

Britton went for 485 with a runner bid of 371 in my NCBC sat league. Desmond Jennings went for 301 with the next bid being 44 OUCH.

I took a flyer on Santos for 7

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#44 Post by deansdaddy »

I was the $44 bid - and I dropped there from $77 earlier in the day. Still I wasn't even in the same ballpark. We have had some free spenders early in this league that is for sure.

I underbid on all my targets ( Britton, Harrison, C Getz) but one - where I got C Snyder for $19 un-contested.

I did get Harrison for $77 in my DP league and was pretty happy about that. I got outbid on Jordan Walden there - but I bid less here than in the other leagues (where I won him) since I have Bell and Street. Would like to add a third closer - but would rather get one cheaper here.

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#45 Post by RobDMay »

Looking like Santos for $7 could be a steal for me.

Captain Hook

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#46 Post by Captain Hook »

RobDMay wrote:Looking like Santos for $7 could be a steal for me.
Why? He will have to get some opportunities first and let's remember it IS Ozzie Guillen we are talking about
(btw I agree that Santos may have value IF he gets a shot and can perform very well right away....but that is certainly not a given)

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#47 Post by RobDMay »

Captain Hook wrote:
RobDMay wrote:Looking like Santos for $7 could be a steal for me.
Why? He will have to get some opportunities first and let's remember it IS Ozzie Guillen we are talking about
(btw I agree that Santos may have value IF he gets a shot and can perform very well right away....but that is certainly not a given)

Your absolutely right but I would rather gamble $7 a week early then have to pay threw the nose if he happens to get a save chance or two this week. At this point I don't event think Ozzie knows who is getting the next save chance. Maybe the flop comes and I hit the flush maybe I miss for $7 I willing to take a look in NFBC.

southpaw

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#48 Post by southpaw »

Well, went all in on Hosmer in my WCOFB league last night.
My winning bid of $482 was $60 over the runner up bid of $422. I was leery to go that high but I really needed some stability at my CI spot and with guys like Reynolds, Desmond, Espinosa, and Posada draining my BA, I needed help in that area. I'm sitting second in the league, just a couple points behind the Desperados.
I also put a substantial bid on Melancon but was way off. I thought my $190 would be in contention and would have loved to acquire a 3rd closer behind Axford and Storen/Burnett. I also have Venters for a some vulture saves. But he went for $400+ with some runner up bids in the 200/300 range so my bid was on the lower end.
So I was real aggressive this week and got my main target. I'll hopefully be able to target some saves later on but with Melancon going so high, I think this will only inflate bids on speculative closers and step in closers in the future.

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Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#49 Post by Todd Zola »

southpaw wrote: I think this will only inflate bids on speculative closers and step in closers in the future.
This gets filed under "easier said than done", but the idea here is, assuming you have a reserve spot to sacrifice, to speculate on someone that costs the minimum bid that is not at the forefront of speculative closers. Someone like Jake McGee may be available or Scott Downs. You can even rotate guys into this spot so long as you only spend a buck or two per pickup.

It is hard to answer the question "who do you suggest I acquire", because if there was an answer, they would likely be owned.

It is not a part of the hobby I like, pure speculation, but that is where the game has evolved.
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Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#50 Post by RobDMay »

Hosmer went for 500 in my NFBC Sat league, Melacon for 228, Padilla for 89.

Captain Hook

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#51 Post by Captain Hook »

Hosmer winning bids (with highest underbid) in three WCOFB leagues

337 (243)

580 (355)

388 (I was one of Four teams who bid 333)

bids for Melancon if unowned was all over - there was a $300+ bid by one of the best players who is short on saves

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#52 Post by RobDMay »

Ryan that Nathan bid had to hurt.

deansdaddy

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#53 Post by deansdaddy »

Yeah - it's never fun to overbid on a guy by over $200 :oops: And whats worse is I upped the bid twice during the day :D

But - he went for big bucks in a bunch of other leagues and I decided I wanted him. I have missed out on a a lot of guys in this league by underbidding - and sometimes this will be the result. I came into the week with over $800 - so I'm fine with it. I don't really worry about spending big on a player I want and I think Nathan will pay dividends on that investment.

What I am not so okay with is how your are running away with this league - 140 points!!! That's just crazy good.

I will keep battling and hopefully I can stay in your rear view with Rob Giese. Funny - the three guys from this league who checked in here on the boards regarding this league are running 1-2-3 right now. Keep up the good work - and don't get too comfortable :lol:

RobDMay

Re: NFBC FAAB Advice

#54 Post by RobDMay »

Yea its the most uncomfortable lead I have ever had, I just keep waiting for it to come crashing down. My SP still scares me there is no way my staff can maintain that ERA and WHIP all season. I still feel strongly about my offense and Hanely hasn't really done too much for me yet.

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