Rating a Pitcher's Start

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viper
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Rating a Pitcher's Start

#1 Post by viper »

I've been messing around with this for about three weeks. I want to get a means of rating each pitchers starts in an effort to see who is doing weell fantasy-wise. In leagues like the NFBC, you typically have options each week and making the right ones helps. I don't see this as being the same as what Todd is looking for but maybe a cousin once removed.

Let me say, I totally dislike the quality start formula. Three runs in six innings is not good - it is bad. Also, it does nothing with baserunners which is huge in fantasy because WHIP counts. I also don't like Shandlers formula although my current concept is somewhat similar. Shandler is too heavy on skills and less on results. Finally, I want to easily see all the things I need from the pitchers box score and not have to look to the details - like HR allowed.

My current version awards up to five points for an outing. They are:

1. 6 IP or 5 IP with a win. I am not going to punish a pitcher who is taken out after 5 innings with a 10-0 lead. I want innings but sometimes it does not matter. Correia the other day went 5.1 but reached a pitch count. Still he had a huge lead. No punishment here.

2. K/W greater of 2.5 or better. Isn't that the dividing line used for expected success? This is my one true skills-based factor.

3. Ks at 6 or more. It is a category that counts.

4. ERA of 4.00 or less. This is above average and better than the current MLB QS.

5. WHIP of 1.33 or less. Now 1.30 may be better but 1.33 is easy to figure. Plus I'm a beliver that WHIP*3 equates to ERA. 1.33 *3 = 4.00.

A pitcher's score is from five to zero.

The smell test is that I typically feel happy if my player performs at a 4/5 level and I am not pleased at a 0/1 performance. With a 2/3, I tend to see if he got the win. If he did, I'm OK but if he didn't, I sort of wish I didn't start him unless he did something real good like 12 Ks.

Like Shandler 4s and 5s are good. 0s and 1s are bad. 2s and 3s are so-so.

What this is missing is the team the picther faced. When possible, I'm inclined to sit pitchers on a cold streak and start them if they are hot.

My problem right now is four of my six teams are "blessed" with lots of cold pitchers. I can't bench them all. Also three of my six leagues have no bench so you pretty much have to suffer at times.
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Todd Zola
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Re: Rating a Pitcher's Start

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

Sorry, but I believe this is exactly the same idea as I discussed with respect to GAME SCORE and the method as you describe I feel entails too much luck too be predictive or as a means of testing a predictive method, given there is a limit to how predictive anything can be for a 1 or 2 game sample.

The idea should not be to judge how a player did, but try to get a handle on how they will do next time.

Granted, how a player did is useful for predicting how a player will do, but to much of your breakdown rewards credit for performance that is not predictive of future performance.

Specifically crediting wins and discounting for runs (in the form of ERA) and hits (in the form of WHIP) is too much results based to be useful.

Personally, I don't need a 0-5 scale to judge if my guy helped me that particular day. But I could use some help looking at the numbers behind the surface stats to judge if my guy is likely to help me down the road.

With that said, I am perfectly open to including an element of hits or runs allowed in the ranking method as I may be overemphasizing hits and runs allowed involve more luck than skill.
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Re: Rating a Pitcher's Start

#3 Post by viper »

I only skimmed the game score post mostly because it looked to be all but impossible to keep track of the 30 or so different pitchers I have. I admit I am looking for something that can be determined without the need of a spreadsheet with a long formula. I determined my formula about 3 days into the season mostly because there was nothing published anywhere that I was comfortable with.

I'll be interested to see what comes out of your quest.
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Re: Rating a Pitcher's Start

#4 Post by Todd Zola »

Sorry if I seemed a bit harsh...

In about the time it will take to look at how all your pitchers did, we can load stats into a spreadsheet and have it automatically calculate the game scores for everyone.

But the larger point is the use of the more "luck" related results to fuel your score, be it 0-5 or 1-100.

I understand the reticence to simply use the PQS system derived by Baseball HQ.

I also realize I may need to soften my stance to using hits allowed, runs allowed, etc.

There needs to be a compromise.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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