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 Post subject: A New Look at Pitching Tiers
PostPosted: February 14th, 2017, 5:53 pm 
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I'm going to try thinking about my draft using Todd's "A New Look at Pitching Tiers" approach. But first, I need a little clarification. Let's agree SP1 has a target ERA of 2.10; SP2 has a target ERA of 2.79. Using the 2/12/17 projections, there are no SP1. However, I can see three ways of determining the group of starters who fall in the SP2 tier:

1) the absolute number of pitchers who's ERA falls between >2.10 and <2.80. (Kershaw & Syndergaard), with an average 204 IP and avg ERA 2.41

2) the absolute number of pitchers who's collective ERA average <2.80 (Kershaw, Syndergaard, Baumgarner, Arrieta, Hill, Scherzer, Lester and Cueto), with an average ERA 2.783 and average 201.88 IP.

3) the absolute number of pitchers who's collective weighted (using IP) average ERA is <2.80 (same 8 pitchers), with a weighted average 2.781 ERA and an average 201.88 IP.

Which method is most appropriate?

How should the SP1, SP2, etc parameters be adjusted to fit the constraints of the projections?


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 Post subject: Re: A New Look at Pitching Tiers
PostPosted: February 14th, 2017, 6:38 pm 
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There's really not set numbers, they change year to year. I look for natural breaks or just what feels right. This is what I've been using thus far:

Tier1
Kershaw, Clayton

Tier 2
Syndergaard, Noah
Bumgarner, Madison
Arrieta, Jake
Scherzer, Max
Lester, Jon
Cueto, Johnny

Tier 3
Martinez, Carlos
Darvish, Yu
Strasburg, Stephen
Kluber, Corey
Tanaka, Masahiro
Carrasco, Carlos
deGrom, Jacob
Teheran, Julio
McCullers, Lance
Cole, Gerrit
Verlander, Justin
Hamels, Cole
Price, David
Quintana, Jose
Archer, Chris
Sale, Chris

Tier 4
Matz, Steven
Lackey, John
Roark, Tanner
Sanchez, Aaron
Taillon, Jameson
Pomeranz, Drew
Hendricks, Kyle
Richards, Garrett
Fulmer, Michael
Gausman, Kevin
Maeda, Kenta
Duffy, Danny
Nola, Aaron
Greinke, Zack
Paxton, James
Manaea, Sean
Salazar, Danny
Hernandez, Felix
Keuchel, Dallas
Porcello, Rick
Santana, Ervin
Pineda, Michael
Musgrove, Joe
Odorizzi, Jake
Snell, Blake
Happ, J.A.
Shoemaker, Matt
Davies, Zach
DeSclafani, Anthony
Eickhoff, Jerad
Smyly, Drew
Volquez, Edinson
Kennedy, Ian
Guerra, Junior
Nova, Ivan
Velasquez, Vince
Chatwood, Tyler
Estrada, Marco
Gsellman, Robert
Stroman, Marcus
Gray, Sonny
Conley, Adam
Cotton, Jharel
Finnegan, Brandon

Tier 5
Montgomery, Mike
Garcia, Jaime
Chen, Wei-Yin
Iwakuma, Hisashi
Colon, Bartolo
Samardzija, Jeff
Reyes, Alex
Rodon, Carlos
Moore, Matt
Cobb, Alex
Skaggs, Tyler
Bundy, Dylan
Gray, Jon
Hellickson, Jeremy
Wainwright, Adam
Graveman, Kendall
Fiers, Mike
Anderson, Tyler
Gallardo, Yovani
Ray, Robbie
Andriese, Matt
Dickey, R.A.
Hammel, Jason
Zimmermann, Jordan

Tier 6
Liriano, Francisco
Tomlin, Josh
Gonzalez, Gio
Kazmir, Scott
Tillman, Chris
Bradley, Archie
Chavez, Jesse
Bauer, Trevor
McHugh, Collin
Koehler, Tom
Foltynewicz, Mike
Karns, Nate
Leake, Mike
Nolasco, Ricky
Lugo, Seth
Richard, Clayton
Straily, Dan
Gonzalez, Miguel
Perez, Martin
Lewis, Colby
Sabathia, CC
Perdomo, Luis
Walker, Taijuan

Tier 7
Miller, Shelby
Anderson, Chase
Fister, Doug
Santiago, Hector
Chacin, Jhoulys
Gibson, Kyle
Jimenez, Ubaldo
Adleman, Tim
Friedrich, Christian
Bettis, Chad
Sanchez, Anibal
Peralta, Wily
Cashner, Andrew
Shields, James
Miley, Wade

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Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: A New Look at Pitching Tiers
PostPosted: February 14th, 2017, 7:12 pm 
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Thank You Todd.

I will make similar adjustments to my Closers and Set-Up guys (as my league has Holds as a separate category).

Side Note: Over the last 10 years, a 10th place pitching finish in ERA in a 12 team league with saves and holds, has averaged a 3.46 ERA. Definitely in the ballpark.


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 Post subject: Re: A New Look at Pitching Tiers
PostPosted: March 2nd, 2017, 11:38 pm 
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A quick follow up inquiry. Most notably missing from the tiers is Rich Hill. I understand the IP threshold, however, Hill's projection is the same as Clayton Richard and carries a much lower ERA and higher K's. Was Hill an oversight or are there other reasons to exclude him among the tiers?

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12 Team, Mixed, Rotisserie League with Daily Transactions
1450 IP Limit; 162 Games per position
Hitting: Runs, HR, RBI, SB, BA, Hits, BB, Total Bases, OPS
Pitching: W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K's, HR Allowed, Holds, K/BB, Quality Starts

Hitting:
C: J. Lucroy 1B: A. Rizzo 2B: DJ LeMahieu 3B: D. Murphy SS: B. Zobrist MI: J.H. Kang CI: J. Mauer OF: AJ Pollack, K. Calhoun, J. Reddick, Y. Cespedes Utility: D. Fowler
Pitching:
SP: C. Sale, S. Grey, T. Ross, K. Hendricks, S. Kazmir, A. Heaney
CL: D. Betances, A. Miller
SU: W. Davis, T. Watson,

Bench: M. Semien, C. Ruiz
DL: A. Rendon, A. Gordon, J. Hahn, D. Smyly, J. Grilli


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 Post subject: Re: A New Look at Pitching Tiers
PostPosted: March 3rd, 2017, 12:01 am 
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For me it's innings. I sort of play it by ear, and if I like what I have so far, or feel I can get a few arms I like later, I'll consider Hill around Tier 4. My main issue is the blister. How many times was he scheduled, but then scratched? Taking a zero when you have someone on reserve to use really hurts.

_________________
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: A New Look at Pitching Tiers
PostPosted: March 23rd, 2017, 10:13 am 
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Joined: March 8th, 2017, 6:19 am
Posts: 5
doesn't it seem like there are a high number of former aces or your guys with ace potential in the tiers 3 and 4 this year? I could easily see a preseason group of Darvish, DeGrom, Fulmer, Duffy, Aaron Sanchez, Felix, Quintana, etc, being a viable rotation this year. Really feels like a year to wait on pitching...


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