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Mastersball Fantasy Forum • View topic - Why is Billy Hamilton's ADP so high?

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 Post subject: Why is Billy Hamilton's ADP so high?
PostPosted: February 22nd, 2017, 10:47 pm 
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His ADP in NFBC is around 52. He was taken 48th overall in LABR mixed. I don't really see the justification from a value angle? Just looking at his projected stats, I don't see the justification of him being a top 30 outfielder. He was not a top 20 OF in 2016, so why are people drafting him around 10th?


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 Post subject: Re: Why is Billy Hamilton's ADP so high?
PostPosted: February 22nd, 2017, 11:36 pm 
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dietrichdingers wrote:
His ADP in NFBC is around 52. He was taken 48th overall in LABR mixed. I don't really see the justification from a value angle? Just looking at his projected stats, I don't see the justification of him being a top 30 outfielder. He was not a top 20 OF in 2016, so why are people drafting him around 10th?


Two reasons.

1) People are looking at his improvement in OPB over the second half of last season and see 70+ SB. This isn't the 50th percentile projection but it's certainly plausible.

2) Roster construct. All it takes is one team per league to start with some combo of Arenado/Machado/Donaldson/Encarnacion etc and want to catch up in steals.

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 Post subject: Re: Why is Billy Hamilton's ADP so high?
PostPosted: February 23rd, 2017, 1:14 am 
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Ah ok I think I get it. If he hits .280 and swipes 80 he's up in Charlie Blackmon type value.

It seems like the steals of guys who are projected to get 30 or more are higher valued than the guys in the ~5-15 range. Is this because it's seen as more "stable" that Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon will be given the green light, and that the lower-steal guys for whom it isn't a main part of their game might just drop them altogether (like Machado last year going from 20 steals to 0)?

For example, DJ LeMahieu looks like a steal to me going 40 picks later than Dee Gordon. Even if LeMahiu steals 5 and Gordon steals 45, the former projects to be significantly higher in every other category.

Is it just sort of a meta play, that because steals are generally distributed more among lower-value players, that there's a "position scarcity" of steals?


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 Post subject: Re: Why is Billy Hamilton's ADP so high?
PostPosted: February 23rd, 2017, 10:01 am 
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Steals really aren't distributed between lower valued players -- they're very concentrated among a few players, then dispersed among the rest of the pool. Sure, there are some lower end players that don't do much else that have their ranking based primarily on steals, but that's an effect, not a cause.

In a vacuum, a steal is worth comparatively more than the other stats. I don't like the word, but the value is proportional to the contribution to the category. So by the math, a high steals total is contributing a higher percent of the category that a high HR total is to HR. RBI is to RBI, etc.

This is what drives up Hamilton, Gordon etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Why is Billy Hamilton's ADP so high?
PostPosted: February 24th, 2017, 10:18 pm 
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Thanks for the insight!
I just ended up drafting Hamilton in the 6th round (14 team league) of a slow draft as the 21st OF off the board in my first draft this year.


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