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 Post subject: Joc Pederson
PostPosted: May 12th, 2016, 12:19 pm 
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Joined: May 12th, 2016, 3:28 pm
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Thoughts on Joc Pederson's development for the rest of this year, but also for the next few years. He has some numbers that make me believe he is improving and could be a great player to hold onto in a keeper league, but at the same time he has some numbers that make me want to turn and run.

2016#'s as of 05/12
Bad
Strikeout %=34% Up front last year and near Justin Upton's lead league
BB% = 13.6% down from last year and close to his AA walk rate
.362 BABIP with a .264 average showing possible regression abck to the .220 average from the season prior
26.1% HR/FB rate which seems hard to sustain

Good
LD% up from 15% to 19%
FB% up from 42% to 45%
GB% down from 42% to 35%
IFFB % down nearly half from 15% to 8.7%
Hard Ball% same as prior season
SoftBall% down 5% from last year with an increase in medium speed
And lastly, He is pulling the ball 8% less, and although he's not hitting the ball the opposite way as much, he is hitting more towards center field and hitting those power alleys. This is very helpful for his average and future success in beating the shift.

I'm just not sure what to make of Joc Pederson. Is he a future multi appearance all star? Or is he Chris Carter who plays a great center field? Appreciate any input.


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 Post subject: Re: Joc Pederson
PostPosted: May 12th, 2016, 1:31 pm 
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Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm
Posts: 6066
The sample size of the good is far too small to be predictive, not to mention the difference is within the boundaries of statistical noise. K-rate is the most telling and unfortunately that's getting better, not worse.

The bulb may still go one but I see nothing more than a platoon player that will tease for stretches and isn't even running enough to have a useful floor, at least for fantasy.

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