Thoughts on Arenado?

[lewp]

Just called up to the Rocks. What kind of expectations would you have for him this year?

I've got a frozen David Freese manning 3B, and the equally icy Ike Davis at the Corner. Probably wouldn't drop either of them, but might move them to the bench or to a utility spot, possibly replacing Duda.

[Captain Hook]

I like Arenado a LOT

Fortunate to have seen him for three years now at various leagues in AZ plus spring training and he can HIT

The only ways he doesn't man third base for the rest of the year for the Rockies would be injury or failure and I don't see him failing - he worked past all his issues and is raking and the Rockies have said they weren't going to bring him up until he was going to play every day. Perhaps actually competing in the NL West to date led them to the promotion but he is up.

I would be surprised if he doesn't hit 20 home runs or at least come close if he is playing the remaining five months and there are lots of RBI chances in that lineup.

[Todd Zola]

The proper question would be what type of speculations would we have this year.

For me, his falls into the category of sometimes you have to take a chance even if the odds say he may fail. I like the Duda call. I expect Ike to have decent numbers by season's end. Freese is the perfect "over/under" candidate. It's a risk since we know what we'll get from Freese but the upside of Arenado is a little better so I can see making the move.

The process says Arenado is a risk but the results have a greater upside than Freese.

[alleyoops]

Lineup choices with Arenado in two leagues:

1. Arenado vs Gyorko vs Infante (starting two). 5x5 roto.

2. Arenado vs Gyorko vs Seager vs Uggla vs Walker vs Victorino vs Hunter (starting four). Leaning toward benching Walker and Victorino this week because they're dinged, and Uggla because he's cold, but how would you order if all were healthy? 5x5 with OBP, h2h.

Close enough in either case to look at home/away splits and matchups (weekly lineups)?

[Bodhizefa]

I like Arenado a LOT

Fortunate to have seen him for three years now at various leagues in AZ plus spring training and he can HIT

The only ways he doesn't man third base for the rest of the year for the Rockies would be injury or failure and I don't see him failing - he worked past all his issues and is raking and the Rockies have said they weren't going to bring him up until he was going to play every day. Perhaps actually competing in the NL West to date led them to the promotion but he is up.

I would be surprised if he doesn't hit 20 home runs or at least come close if he is playing the remaining five months and there are lots of RBI chances in that lineup.

Most analysts/scouts I've read have projected Arenado as a 15-20 homerun guy, Perry, so it's intriguing to hear you say you think he's got more upside in that department. Is it the Coors factor, Arenado's swing plane, his growth into a more powerful player, or a combination of all those factors? The homers I've seen him hit thus far have all been line drive rockets, which is always an interesting flight path for a dinger.

[Todd Zola]

I'm a sucker for contact rate and this kid's been 85-90 percent.

If he maintains that, I agree with Perry, he'll run into 20 bombs. And if he can add just a little loft w/o damaging the contact, we could be talking more. I'm not looking for that this season, but I can see it down the line.

I sort of see Billy Butler in Coors (though I don't know Arenado's GB/FB rates).

[Bodhizefa]

I'm a sucker for contact rate and this kid's been 85-90 percent.

If he maintains that, I agree with Perry, he'll run into 20 bombs. And if he can add just a little loft w/o damaging the contact, we could be talking more. I'm not looking for that this season, but I can see it down the line.

I sort of see Billy Butler in Coors (though I don't know Arenado's GB/FB rates).

I don't know how reliable FirstInning.com is, but they have him as a fairly extreme flyball hitter. And I read somewhere in a scouting report that he hit more fly balls than ground balls in the minors by a pretty good margin (although I don't remember the source).