And with the #2 pick in the NFBC Main Event, Todd picks....

[Todd Zola]

Discuss

[viper]

Miggy - Braun

[Captain Hook]

Easy Game - Go Fish

[actuary316]

I would pick a closer....

seriously my pick would be Miggy

[Todd Zola]

Let's assume Miggy is off the board.

[viper]

Your own numbers have Braun at $7 more than Trout and $9-$12 more than Cano, Kemp, Posey, McCutchen & Pujols. Is the fear of Braun getting suspended based on what we know concerning the Miami clinic enough to warrant dropping so much. I think not.

My guess is that your personal thoughts have Trout towards the bottom of that group.. I somehow think many feel that Trouts downside is another $3 - $4 over what gets crunched out.

[Mickey4081]

I know Todd doesn't like risk whatsoever in the first round. If he is in the least concerned over Braun and his possible suspension scare he will take Cano.

My guess is he took Cano.

[Todd Zola]

Draft is Saturday.

Cano is falling down my board, concerned about the R+RBI. I like Fielder more than Cano.

I'm still on Braun. If no other info comes out he's my guy.

[Bodhizefa]

Stats question: is Mike Trout's 2012 season considered an outlier by statisticians? If so, is that only because he was so much better than everyone else? Do statisticians generally have difficulty identifying outliers early on vs recognizing an outstanding performance that is readily repeatable?

I certainly understand why so many stat-minded pundits are a bit bearish on Trout given expectations of regression. But what's confounding to me is the almost relative assurance that Trout will definitively regress. I guess I'm just curious what the odds are that 2012 was simply a normal year for Trout and that he may have even better years ahead -- it doesn't seem like its zero percent, that's for sure.

[Todd Zola]

I wrote about Trout for the ESPN Insider which will be posted in Platinum later tonight.

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never.

There is no absolute.

However, the probability that a player improves upon a .383 BABIP and 22% HR/FB are remote.

But everything has never happened until it happens for the first time.

The problem is we don't know Trout's baseline, but because it is so high, we want to believe more of his luck is skill than say Bryan LaHair early last season.

[diedrich]

well since i have the first pick in the main in a bazillion tries- would braun be you pick at #1. for me it is between braun and miggy. players that steal have a higher floor and they are both amazingly consistent. i assume you have info that miggy will be take but wouild you take him over braun.

[Captain Hook]

well since i have the first pick in the main in a bazillion tries- would braun be you pick at #1. for me it is between braun and miggy. players that steal have a higher floor and they are both amazingly consistent. i assume you have info that miggy will be take but wouild you take him over braun.

Depends on whether you personally have any qualms about Braun facing a suspension related to the Miami thing

He is a clear first choice absent that for his overall contributions but many will not want to run the risk of losing him for 50 ... or 100 games

[diedrich]

captain hook- my bad. i should have noted the question was for Todd. he said "assume miggy is gone". JUPINKA has the 1st pick. Does that mean todd knows jupinka is taking miggy? if he is; what is good enough for JUPINKA is good enough for me. Or does it mean Todd will not take miggy if he is there at #2 and would go trout or braun. That second bit of logic in a way doesn't apply to the question because it is moot if jupinka takes one of them so i took it to mean JUPINKA is taking miggy. ONE other point- your website projections( done by Todd i believe) show $41 fot braun and $39 for miggy. todd has written many artuicles saying $2 diff"s aren't much to worry about. Yet you say the choice is clear. Do you disagree with todd or am I missing something. mike

[Todd Zola]

I'll write up my AL/NL/Classic teams up this week but to answer the question, I took Braun #2.