Nelson Cruz - $20 in AL only- is upside worth the risk?

General player discussion. It is encouraged but not necessary to note the name of player and the date of the news in the subject.
Post Reply
Message
Author
whammer
Major League Regular
Posts: 71
Joined: December 31st, 2008, 5:59 pm

Nelson Cruz - $20 in AL only- is upside worth the risk?

#1 Post by whammer »

AL Only 12 team - own Cruz at $20 - inflation generally runs around 25% - many premium hitters protected - Is he worth the risk in both suspension and decline- or are we looking at a bounceback candidate.

Thoughts appreciated.

deansdaddy

Re: Nelson Cruz - $20 in AL only- is upside worth the risk?

#2 Post by deansdaddy »

Honestly - I don't really see so much upside beyond a potential power uptick with Cruz. His speed has continued to decline - even last year when he finally played a career high 159 games. Prior to last year his games totals are 128, 104, 124. So last year he finally delivered the 600 plus AB's and his homer total dipped. So the gamble is that you actually believe he'll stay healthy for another season at Age 31. If he does, I guess you could hope he gets the HR total back into the 30's, as he still has the power profile to do it. But I see just as much, if not more risk, than I do upside. That said an OF who can provide 25 HRs 10 SB has value - and if lots of guys are kept - he's probably worth keeping for at least one more year at that price.

Captain Hook

Re: Nelson Cruz - $20 in AL only- is upside worth the risk?

#3 Post by Captain Hook »

whammer wrote:AL Only 12 team - own Cruz at $20 - inflation generally runs around 25% - many premium hitters protected - Is he worth the risk in both suspension and decline- or are we looking at a bounceback candidate.

Thoughts appreciated.
Assuming he plays a full season, you would not lose any money at that salary vs current projection and you would gain vs the inflated cost

I think the chance of a suspension off the Miami reports are pretty small

AllstonRockCity

Re: Nelson Cruz - $20 in AL only- is upside worth the risk?

#4 Post by AllstonRockCity »

There's nothing wrong with keeping someone 'at value' so long as they give you some solid stats.

He fits the bill. It might not be the greatest move you make this season, but I'd keep him.

User avatar
CubFan
Hall of Famer
Posts: 1513
Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions

Re: Nelson Cruz - $20 in AL only- is upside worth the risk?

#5 Post by CubFan »

Questions....1) do you have someone else you are thinking of protecting instead and 2) who else will be available at auction who you can get at $20 who can deliver 20+ HRs and maybe 10 SBs? If you think you can get them for $20 or less and they are less of an injury risk then consider dropping him and let someone else take the risk. I was surprised he didn't deliver more offense after playing a full season for the first time. Also factor in he will be asked to provide more offense with the departure of Hamilton and the huge injury risk Berkman is. So, is he up to the task?
12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league. Using OBP, W+QS and S+1/2H

C - Garver $4
1B/3B - Torkelson $1, E. Durna $3 (??)
2B/SS - Royce Lewis $2, Story $13
OF - J Duran $11, Ward $7
UT -
SP - Hunter Brown $6, Ryan $22
RP - Fairbanks $6, Duran $16
Bench -

Post Reply