From David Murphy of the Philly Daily News: "I talked to a scout who said that Halladay looked much sharper than he did in his previous outing, but that his velocity was topping out at 88 and everything was sitting between 86-88. When Halladay was at his most dominant, he was sitting 92-93. "
Granted - the conditions in yesterday's game were pretty lousy, wet and cold. But still this in my mind raises a red flag for Halladay. I just don't see him dominating like he used to if he can't get that velocity back up. It's still early in camp, but everyone will be watching the 36 year-old's radar gun readings next time out I guess.
Roy Halladay's velocity
-
AllstonRockCity
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
We were hearing these same reports last year and we (myself included) all ignored them. We all looked at this track record and discounted the 'noise' coming out of S.T. Well, that was a huge mistake.
I think it would serve everyone well to heed the warning signs that Doc may be done.
Don't take him as your Ace
I think it would serve everyone well to heed the warning signs that Doc may be done.
Don't take him as your Ace
-
deansdaddy
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
Yeah - he's been going as an SP2 in my 15 team drafts - usually around the 20th SP taken - but this news drops him more into SP3 range for me. No way I take him that high over names like Scherzer, Cueto, Matt Moore, Latos, Gallardo, Dickey or even guys like Fister, Morrow and Shields.
I think he can still be effective with decreased velocity - but for me this drops him down into Jake Peavy, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, C.J. Wilson, Ian Kennedy, Jon Niese territory on my SP tiers.
I think he can still be effective with decreased velocity - but for me this drops him down into Jake Peavy, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, C.J. Wilson, Ian Kennedy, Jon Niese territory on my SP tiers.
-
Polka
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
This just came in so handy, thanks for the update fellas, and yes he does drop a tier or two in my eyes.
so Jag-ff in my league will pay way to much for his name though! Amen for the uneducated!
so Jag-ff in my league will pay way to much for his name though! Amen for the uneducated!
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
I think the ability to just flat out pitch can be underestimated, and Halladay hasn't lost the ability to do that. The loss in velocity, IMO, will impact Halladay when he doesn't have his good stuff/movement and pinpoint control. That will lead to a couple more beatings than we're used to seeing from him and what brings him from the dominant, top 5 pitcher to just a very good one. I watched a little of his last start on the replay on MLB network, and the movement on some of his pitches was sick.
Halladay, similar to Lincecum, is one of the pitchers this year that should significantly impact most leagues. Those that draft each of these have the possibility of huge production at a reduced price or a major disappointment.
For me, I'm trusting Halladay can recover from a bad year since velocity isn't what he relies on most, but it's about the price point and other pitchers available. This said, the ability to profit is probably just about right in the 6th round IMO. In the main event, similar to BHarper skyrocketing up the draft boards to not miss out on a possible monster year, my guess is Halladay's in the 5th on NFBC Main Event draft boards to not miss out on a solid comeback year of close to what we have seen in the past.
Mark
Halladay, similar to Lincecum, is one of the pitchers this year that should significantly impact most leagues. Those that draft each of these have the possibility of huge production at a reduced price or a major disappointment.
For me, I'm trusting Halladay can recover from a bad year since velocity isn't what he relies on most, but it's about the price point and other pitchers available. This said, the ability to profit is probably just about right in the 6th round IMO. In the main event, similar to BHarper skyrocketing up the draft boards to not miss out on a possible monster year, my guess is Halladay's in the 5th on NFBC Main Event draft boards to not miss out on a solid comeback year of close to what we have seen in the past.
Mark
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
Here's the thing with Halladay.
Even if he does get his ratios in check, there's no way he throws the 240 innings he used to which will significantly reduce the impact of his ERA/WHIP along with fewer whiffs.
He's an SP4 for me. Even his best won't be what people think.
FWIW, I am making a similar argument why Strasburg should not be drafted ahead of Verlander and Kershaw -- he's starting 25-40 IP in the hole and his K/9 is going to drop.
Even if he does get his ratios in check, there's no way he throws the 240 innings he used to which will significantly reduce the impact of his ERA/WHIP along with fewer whiffs.
He's an SP4 for me. Even his best won't be what people think.
FWIW, I am making a similar argument why Strasburg should not be drafted ahead of Verlander and Kershaw -- he's starting 25-40 IP in the hole and his K/9 is going to drop.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
Todd,
I think your statement about Halladay assumes some belief that he is and/or won't be healthy the entire season. Unless he is truly washed up, I can't see him turning into a 6 inning pitcher, as you can't take the workhorse out of someone. His innings, IF he is back, should drop 10-20 from his previous norms. The velocity should have the most impact on K's, which of course makes him less valuable. I would put his upside on par with Jered Weaver, whose velocity and K's are also dropping.
That's the great thing about this game we all play. We take everything into consideration and come up with different opinions and conclusions.
With this said, and it's always the most difficult for me, is if Halladay is really healthy right now. That is why I go back and forth on whether to make him part of my plans in a couple of weeks.
I remember many years ago, before I started playing the NFBC, Eric Gagne said he was healthy all spring, pitched a couple of innings in April and then was out for the year. Would hate to pick Halladay and come to the same end result, or worse, poor performance all year because he's pitching hurt.
Mark
I think your statement about Halladay assumes some belief that he is and/or won't be healthy the entire season. Unless he is truly washed up, I can't see him turning into a 6 inning pitcher, as you can't take the workhorse out of someone. His innings, IF he is back, should drop 10-20 from his previous norms. The velocity should have the most impact on K's, which of course makes him less valuable. I would put his upside on par with Jered Weaver, whose velocity and K's are also dropping.
That's the great thing about this game we all play. We take everything into consideration and come up with different opinions and conclusions.
With this said, and it's always the most difficult for me, is if Halladay is really healthy right now. That is why I go back and forth on whether to make him part of my plans in a couple of weeks.
I remember many years ago, before I started playing the NFBC, Eric Gagne said he was healthy all spring, pitched a couple of innings in April and then was out for the year. Would hate to pick Halladay and come to the same end result, or worse, poor performance all year because he's pitching hurt.
Mark
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
I think his innings drop closer to 25-35. not a 6 inning guy, but not a 8 inning guy either.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
Consistent with the projection Todd, thanks.
-
AllstonRockCity
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
In case anyone missed this on the main page
Phillies | Roy Halladay hit around
Tue, 12 Mar 2013 15:05:03 -0700
Philadelphia Phillies SP Roy Halladay allowed six hits, seven earned runs, four walks and two home runs in 2 2/3 spring innings Tuesday, March 12, which included a grand slam and a wild pitch. Halladay had trouble locating his pitches. "I was really lethargic," Halladay said. "Warming up it was as good as it's been all year. Once we got out there it was completely different. I think it's just that time of spring – you're going all the time. We had an extra day so I threw two bullpens in between, and you're trying to work on as much stuff as you can. So I really feel that kind of caught up with me today." He said he wasn't sore after the game, though, and the team insists he's fully healthy.
Phillies | Roy Halladay hit around
Tue, 12 Mar 2013 15:05:03 -0700
Philadelphia Phillies SP Roy Halladay allowed six hits, seven earned runs, four walks and two home runs in 2 2/3 spring innings Tuesday, March 12, which included a grand slam and a wild pitch. Halladay had trouble locating his pitches. "I was really lethargic," Halladay said. "Warming up it was as good as it's been all year. Once we got out there it was completely different. I think it's just that time of spring – you're going all the time. We had an extra day so I threw two bullpens in between, and you're trying to work on as much stuff as you can. So I really feel that kind of caught up with me today." He said he wasn't sore after the game, though, and the team insists he's fully healthy.
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
Halladay and "lethargic" usually don't go together. Usually a veteran getting beat up in the spring is just brushed off, but in Halladay's case, probably just adds more uncertainty to whether he is really healthy or not.
Philly insisting he's healthy doesn't mean anything.
Halladay will definitely be one of the interesting picks as everyone enters their most important drafts over the next 2 weeks. A little less than 3 weeks to opening day!
Philly insisting he's healthy doesn't mean anything.
Halladay will definitely be one of the interesting picks as everyone enters their most important drafts over the next 2 weeks. A little less than 3 weeks to opening day!
-
AllstonRockCity
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
The report I posted reminds me SO much of the reports we were seeing 1 year ago.
Those who do not remember the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them, or something like that.
Those who do not remember the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them, or something like that.
-
AllstonRockCity
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
It just keeps getting better and better.
If I still played in leagues that use the NL, he would be on my 'do not draft' list
Phillies | Roy Halladay may not be ready
Tue, 19 Mar 2013 14:43:34 -0700
Philadelphia Phillies SP Roy Halladay (illness) may not be ready for the start of the season.
If I still played in leagues that use the NL, he would be on my 'do not draft' list
Phillies | Roy Halladay may not be ready
Tue, 19 Mar 2013 14:43:34 -0700
Philadelphia Phillies SP Roy Halladay (illness) may not be ready for the start of the season.
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
It's pretty clear that Halladay is not healthy, despite Philly's insistance that he is. It's spring training, so if he really had a stomach virus, you scratch him and start him whenever he feels better, not pitch him an inning and then take him out.
The last 2 weeks of events and the conclusion in my mind that he still isn't healthy made my decision for me. I wouldn't say he's on my "do not draft" list, but he has taken quite a step down on my list. At some point everyone is draftable, and as you get to the 2nd half of a 28-30 player draft, Halladay's pedigree makes him a decent risk to take because you can sit him on the bench or even drop him without the consequences to your team of an early selection. The upside if he does get healthy is greater the lower he is taken since he doesn't have to be close to the dominant Halladay of old to be worth it. My guess is he'll be gone in most drafts before then and I won't have to worry about it.
Mark
The last 2 weeks of events and the conclusion in my mind that he still isn't healthy made my decision for me. I wouldn't say he's on my "do not draft" list, but he has taken quite a step down on my list. At some point everyone is draftable, and as you get to the 2nd half of a 28-30 player draft, Halladay's pedigree makes him a decent risk to take because you can sit him on the bench or even drop him without the consequences to your team of an early selection. The upside if he does get healthy is greater the lower he is taken since he doesn't have to be close to the dominant Halladay of old to be worth it. My guess is he'll be gone in most drafts before then and I won't have to worry about it.
Mark
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
It's not that he's not healthy, guys. He's old, and he can't get the same torque from his arm that he used to. It's not a secret, and this happens to most every pitcher that lives to see their mid-to-late 30's in the big leagues. He may have a bit of room to grow (maybe he can consistently put up 88-90mph), but what you're seeing is probably all that Halladay has left in the tank.
It reminds me of Mussina circa 2004. His velocity was down and he wasn't producing like normal, and people said he might be hurt. But no, it was just age catching up with him. Moose learned how to pitch with his "new" stuff and became as useful a pitcher as he possibly could, and that's my guess as to what Halladay will do as well. He won't be worthless in fantasy, but his K's will drop and his ERA and WHIP will decidedly rise so he's nowhere near an ace any longer. I think he'll eventually settle into a fantasy #3 or #4 (probably a four as he'll likely have trouble with homeruns this year like he's never had before), and there's even a shot he'll be a great trade target if he starts the year getting shelled while he's still adjusting to his new velocity.
It reminds me of Mussina circa 2004. His velocity was down and he wasn't producing like normal, and people said he might be hurt. But no, it was just age catching up with him. Moose learned how to pitch with his "new" stuff and became as useful a pitcher as he possibly could, and that's my guess as to what Halladay will do as well. He won't be worthless in fantasy, but his K's will drop and his ERA and WHIP will decidedly rise so he's nowhere near an ace any longer. I think he'll eventually settle into a fantasy #3 or #4 (probably a four as he'll likely have trouble with homeruns this year like he's never had before), and there's even a shot he'll be a great trade target if he starts the year getting shelled while he's still adjusting to his new velocity.
I tried to think of the most harmless thing. Something I loved from my childhood. Something that could never ever possibly destroy us. Mr. Stay Puft! We used to roast Stay-Puft marshmallows, by the fire, at Camp Waconda.
-
IronMarshal
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
I live in the Philly area. Doc was interviewed the other day and he was talking like a guy who knows his fastball is gone. He was talking about working with what he has, and learning to pitch differently. One major problem I see is that the difference between his changeup and his fastball is not as great as it once was. That could really cause problems as there has to be a significant difference between the two pitches for the change to be really effective.
His pinpoint control has become an issue too, with tghe drop in velocity, the ball does not finish in the same location as it did before. Simple physics. This is an area where he probably can make adjustments to correct it.
Another issue may be movement on his fastball with the loss of velocity, the ball may not move as effectively as it once did.
Bottom line, I don't think Doc is going to have anywhere near the fantasy value he used to have. He may be able to adjust to a level of wily veteran who can win and have a good, not great, WIP and ERA. But his Ks will be down. And Todd is right about the IPs and their effect on all of the stats, not just the counting stats.
His pinpoint control has become an issue too, with tghe drop in velocity, the ball does not finish in the same location as it did before. Simple physics. This is an area where he probably can make adjustments to correct it.
Another issue may be movement on his fastball with the loss of velocity, the ball may not move as effectively as it once did.
Bottom line, I don't think Doc is going to have anywhere near the fantasy value he used to have. He may be able to adjust to a level of wily veteran who can win and have a good, not great, WIP and ERA. But his Ks will be down. And Todd is right about the IPs and their effect on all of the stats, not just the counting stats.
-
AllstonRockCity
Re: Roy Halladay's velocity
Sadly, another great career has come to an end
Phillies | Roy Halladay headed for DL
Sun, 05 May 2013 20:36:08 -0700
Philadelphia Phillies SP Roy Halladay (shoulder) was pounded for nine runs in just 2 1/3 innings Sunday, May 5, in a loss against the Miami Marlins. After the game, Halladay informed the team that he has pain in the shoulder. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Halladay will likely undergo diagnostic tests sometime this week in California where the team opens a three-game set in San Francisco. Halladay said the plan is to meet with renowned Dr. Lewis Yocum. He said the pain in his shoulders started after his April 24 start. "I woke up, didn't really think anything of it, just regular soreness, it just kind of progressed over the last two weeks or so," Halladay said.
Phillies | Roy Halladay headed for DL
Sun, 05 May 2013 20:36:08 -0700
Philadelphia Phillies SP Roy Halladay (shoulder) was pounded for nine runs in just 2 1/3 innings Sunday, May 5, in a loss against the Miami Marlins. After the game, Halladay informed the team that he has pain in the shoulder. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Halladay will likely undergo diagnostic tests sometime this week in California where the team opens a three-game set in San Francisco. Halladay said the plan is to meet with renowned Dr. Lewis Yocum. He said the pain in his shoulders started after his April 24 start. "I woke up, didn't really think anything of it, just regular soreness, it just kind of progressed over the last two weeks or so," Halladay said.