Ryan Braun

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aburt19
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Re: Ryan Braun

#11 Post by aburt19 »

da_big_kid_94 wrote:
aburt19 wrote:There is another reason for bringing up a stud player and that is that the outcome on the player guides the
direction of the auction. For example, an AL only league and you need an anchor for your pitching staff. Verlander
is available. Until Verlander is nominated, you wouldn't know whether to pass on other pitchers that aren't quite as
good an anchor as Verlander. In addition, without Verlander your #2 starter needs to be better than if you get
Verlander. I don't go into the auction with the idea that X player is mine no matter the cost. If I get down to the
last couple of alternatives, then my mindset may change. But if I need an anchor for my pitching staff, I want to
know whether I can roster Verlander at value in order to guide my auction regarding the other alternatives.
The point to that is you wait to the last couple of alternatives, you have let the market drive you, not vice versa. Let's say you value Verlander at 38 units. OK - that means Verlander is going for a minimum of 38 units - so someone is already spending 38 units to get Verlander. The money's spent ...it's just a question now of who he goes home with. The outcome isn't really going to guide the auction ... there's only one Verlander and there's a lot of someone elses'. By waiting for Verlander, you may be letting better dollar for dollar value go by ...and, as you noted, as the supply dries up, the competition will drive up his price - again with guys you are in competition with for his services. However, if his name comes out 6th and someone says 40, now what? You're not getting him, the money's still been spent prior to auction and you are looking at those 2nd pitchers anyway.

What you have outlined is a strategy that seems to be single player dependent ... and that very rarely, if ever, works out.
I am not ever single player dependent. But if Verlander is plan A, then I'd like to know whether I will get him at what
I consider a reasonable market price. If I don't, I go to plan B. But I want to know early in the auction so I don't
pass up pitchers that fit plan B because I'm waiting for Verlander to be nominated. If no one else nominates him,
I will in the first round of nominations. That basically sets the parameters of the makeup of my pitching staff, because
in an AL only league there is no starter equal to Verlander.

I do sometimes have a problem with waiting so long because prices seem too high to me and get caught bidding
on the "last bottle of Bud Light".

Captain Hook

Re: Ryan Braun

#12 Post by Captain Hook »

aburt19 wrote:There is another reason for bringing up a stud player and that is that the outcome on the player guides the
direction of the auction. For example, an AL only league and you need an anchor for your pitching staff. Verlander
is available. Until Verlander is nominated, you wouldn't know whether to pass on other pitchers that aren't quite as
good an anchor as Verlander. In addition, without Verlander your #2 starter needs to be better than if you get
Verlander. I don't go into the auction with the idea that X player is mine no matter the cost. If I get down to the
last couple of alternatives, then my mindset may change. But if I need an anchor for my pitching staff, I want to
know whether I can roster Verlander at value in order to guide my auction regarding the other alternatives.
Well I partially agree with kid but your point is that you need to get Verlander out of the way to know how to proceed - my thought would be you do it When you have to and that should not be right away

Captain Hook

Re: Ryan Braun

#13 Post by Captain Hook »

There was a previous post about not going for the top guys but maybe adding a Billy Butler amongst the early nominations to see if the market would sag on him

I would say what would be even better is the Gene (Wiseguys Baseball) McCaffrey ploy - throw out a player that you would like to acquire cheaply but instead of waiting forever do it early as you may catch people not paying attention to a little player - say it's Will Venable and you think he is worth $6 so bring him out in the first or second round when people have bigger targets (or don't know they need his speed yet) for two or three dollars and see what happens - often you will sneak him by at your desired price - if not you have taken up a roster spot of an opponents team.

You can do the same with whomever you presume to be $1 catchers - bring one up and if you get them for a dollar, fine - if not someone used that spot and you move up the line not down the line

aburt19
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Re: Ryan Braun

#14 Post by aburt19 »

Captain Hook wrote:
aburt19 wrote:There is another reason for bringing up a stud player and that is that the outcome on the player guides the
direction of the auction. For example, an AL only league and you need an anchor for your pitching staff. Verlander
is available. Until Verlander is nominated, you wouldn't know whether to pass on other pitchers that aren't quite as
good an anchor as Verlander. In addition, without Verlander your #2 starter needs to be better than if you get
Verlander. I don't go into the auction with the idea that X player is mine no matter the cost. If I get down to the
last couple of alternatives, then my mindset may change. But if I need an anchor for my pitching staff, I want to
know whether I can roster Verlander at value in order to guide my auction regarding the other alternatives.
Well I partially agree with kid but your point is that you need to get Verlander out of the way to know how to proceed - my thought would be you do it When you have to and that should not be right away
Here's my question. If Verlander is plan A and because of carryovers plan B is James Shields, R.A. Dickey or
Sabathia, how strongly do I bid on Sabathia if he is brought up at the end of the first round of nominations and
Verlander has not been nominated? If I bid strongly and get him, I may find out that I could have had Verlander
at what I consider to be market price. If I don't bid strongly on Sabathia and Verlander goes for more than my
estimate of market value, I have one less choice available to me for the "anchor" of my pitching staff. That's why
I've always thought that if I needed to know on a player to know how to proceed, it is better to do it early.

In an AL only league, Verlander is about the only player that can be said about because he's head and shoulders
above the other pitchers. On offense, M. Cabrera is best, but the differential isn't quite as pronounced.

Captain Hook

Re: Ryan Braun

#15 Post by Captain Hook »

aburt19 wrote:
Captain Hook wrote:
aburt19 wrote:There is another reason for bringing up a stud player and that is that the outcome on the player guides the
direction of the auction. For example, an AL only league and you need an anchor for your pitching staff. Verlander
is available. Until Verlander is nominated, you wouldn't know whether to pass on other pitchers that aren't quite as
good an anchor as Verlander. In addition, without Verlander your #2 starter needs to be better than if you get
Verlander. I don't go into the auction with the idea that X player is mine no matter the cost. If I get down to the
last couple of alternatives, then my mindset may change. But if I need an anchor for my pitching staff, I want to
know whether I can roster Verlander at value in order to guide my auction regarding the other alternatives.
Well I partially agree with kid but your point is that you need to get Verlander out of the way to know how to proceed - my thought would be you do it When you have to and that should not be right away
Here's my question. If Verlander is plan A and because of carryovers plan B is James Shields, R.A. Dickey or
Sabathia, how strongly do I bid on Sabathia if he is brought up at the end of the first round of nominations and
Verlander has not been nominated? If I bid strongly and get him, I may find out that I could have had Verlander
at what I consider to be market price. If I don't bid strongly on Sabathia and Verlander goes for more than my
estimate of market value, I have one less choice available to me for the "anchor" of my pitching staff. That's why
I've always thought that if I needed to know on a player to know how to proceed, it is better to do it early.

In an AL only league, Verlander is about the only player that can be said about because he's head and shoulders
above the other pitchers. On offense, M. Cabrera is best, but the differential isn't quite as pronounced.
Well as kid said if your draft revolves around only player - well you won't be successful very often - especially if others in your draft know or can figure it out.

In your example above you could bid Sabathia only to the point he would be an excellent buy and then move on - there have to be more than one SP1 in the draft - in fact we know Dickey has been added to the pool

But if YOU absolutely want to clear Verlander before making other decisions then bring him out at your first turn (if not already nominated)

da_big_kid_94
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Re: Ryan Braun

#16 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

aburt19 wrote:
Captain Hook wrote:
aburt19 wrote:There is another reason for bringing up a stud player and that is that the outcome on the player guides the
direction of the auction. For example, an AL only league and you need an anchor for your pitching staff. Verlander
is available. Until Verlander is nominated, you wouldn't know whether to pass on other pitchers that aren't quite as
good an anchor as Verlander. In addition, without Verlander your #2 starter needs to be better than if you get
Verlander. I don't go into the auction with the idea that X player is mine no matter the cost. If I get down to the
last couple of alternatives, then my mindset may change. But if I need an anchor for my pitching staff, I want to
know whether I can roster Verlander at value in order to guide my auction regarding the other alternatives.
Well I partially agree with kid but your point is that you need to get Verlander out of the way to know how to proceed - my thought would be you do it When you have to and that should not be right away
Here's my question. If Verlander is plan A and because of carryovers plan B is James Shields, R.A. Dickey or
Sabathia, how strongly do I bid on Sabathia if he is brought up at the end of the first round of nominations and
Verlander has not been nominated? If I bid strongly and get him, I may find out that I could have had Verlander
at what I consider to be market price. If I don't bid strongly on Sabathia and Verlander goes for more than my
estimate of market value, I have one less choice available to me for the "anchor" of my pitching staff. That's why
I've always thought that if I needed to know on a player to know how to proceed, it is better to do it early.

In an AL only league, Verlander is about the only player that can be said about because he's head and shoulders
above the other pitchers. On offense, M. Cabrera is best, but the differential isn't quite as pronounced.
Exactly ... and how many of your fellow owners would also labor under those impressions If Sabathia goes ahead of Verlander and you pass, won't that increase the price on Verlander to one possibly beyond your value tipping point? Again, since you can't determine when Verlander comes out, what is more likely in your league of these scenarios;
  • Sabathia goes at or below value because Verlander is still there. Verlander goes at or above value with one possible alternative now spoken for.
  • Sabathia goes above value and Verlander goes at value. Sabathia sets a ceiling - what chance is there that Verlander's value will decrease with the precedent of the Sabathia bid?
  • Sabathia goes at value and Verlander goes above value.
  • Edit: After thinking about it, I came up with one more scenario ... IMHO, not a likely one but it deserves consideration because it could happen - your value tipping point is 3-5 units above everyone else you are in competition with and he falls to you below value - in which case the minimum for Verlander falls between your value point and the highest of the low bids.
As I stated before, the minimum number of units are already committed to acquiring Verlander before any one says at word .. it's your value number ...that is the minimum he will go for. So how badly are your screwed if you open up the bid at your value point in an attempt to pre-empt and someone tops you? All it takes is one owner willing to say one more unit than your max bid and you have a decision to make if you wish to stick with Verlander.

BTW - Perry made an excellent point before about Billy Butler ... that name can just as easily be Venable or Viciedo or Heisey - someone whose name disrupts the "normal order of things" in a given auction.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

aburt19
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Re: Ryan Braun

#17 Post by aburt19 »

I guess I'm either not making myself clear or am not clear on what you are saying. I try to make this as clear as I can.

Verlander is one of several possible ways of starting a pitching staff as an anchor. But I'm not married to the idea of having
him. The sole reason I bring him up early is to resolve whether he will be the anchor or whether I go a different direction.
I really don't care whether it is Verlander, Sabathia, Shields, Dickey, etc. By bringing up Verlander early it gives me the
highest number of opportunities to fill the anchor, if I don't get Verlander, with whoever among the remaining options seems to be
at a decent market price. If I wait on Verlander and two of the four other names that I have are already gone because I was
waiting for Verlander and did not bid aggressively for those two, my options have dwindled to where I may be forced to bid
more than I think is market value. If Verlander goes to someone else, that's not a problem. I then can bid aggressively on the
next one nominated. Very seldom does the price for this type of pitcher turn out to be below inflated market value, so as long
as my estimate of the market value is close to reality, I'm okay with paying market value. The only reason I start with
Verlander is that he's the best. If I can acquire him at market value, then it may change the pitchers I go for to fill out the
remainder of the staff.

All I'm trying to do is give myself the most different options to bid on to fill the spot on the roster. I won't go above market
value for any of them until I have to.

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Todd Zola
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Re: Ryan Braun

#18 Post by Todd Zola »

I do exactly as aburt describes, but I do it with closers since I'm not likely to pay for he elite SP.

A few years back, I had the first nomination in the NFBC NL auction -- I opened Billy Wagner at $20, figuring he'd go for more and I wanted the best closer I could get for $20.

GOING ONCE

GOING TWICE

SOLD

I think Wagner was actually the highest priced closer, with the rest $17-$19, but I was just fine with the buy.

And I won the league #humblebrag
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Ryan Braun

#19 Post by Black Sox »

If it's me I throw out Verlander first and see where the bar gets set. If you feel the going rate is market value then lock him up. I understand what your saying you want an ace, once Verlander goes for let's say $38 I'd be pretty confident the next ace up is going between $35-$37, the only chance another ace goes for more than Verlander is if there becomes only 1 "ace" left, and 2 owners want one, that's the position you want to avoid.

Me personally I'm going to go a few extra bucks early and take Verlander. I feel he's head and shoulders above the rest and I don't mind spending a few dollars more at the start figuring I can adjust over the course of the draft. The one thing I know at the end of the draft I won't be kicking myself for spending a few extra bucks on a stud like Verlander, that's for sure :lol:
Boston Black Sox
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