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Re: Top 12

Posted: January 8th, 2013, 7:52 pm
by Black Sox
:lol: oh ok I guess I'm making your point ( that's pretty funny )

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 8th, 2013, 7:58 pm
by Todd Zola
15 team league from the 2 hole

1.02 Braun
2.29 J Upton
3.32 Ellsbury

I'll probably write this one up from a strategic standpoint so I'll save the rest.

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 8th, 2013, 8:08 pm
by Black Sox
Well your certainly not playing it safe. Not sure I would have gone Upton there but if he rebounds wow that's quite a lot of counting stats you rostered early! Not sure why I'm not as high on Upton rebounding ( going into last year I thought he'd return 1st round value ) yet I plan on being all over Ellsbury Hosmer Lowrie etc.

You've also shown me the light in reguards to position scarcity and I won't hesitate to go OF OF OF if the board falls that way, where in past years I'd never consider it.

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 8th, 2013, 8:16 pm
by Todd Zola
that'll be part of the discussion

My C/IF is Yadier, Konerko, Phillips, Alexei Ramirez and Moustakas so I don't feel as though I have given anything back there (as well as balancing the risk with the safe but boring Konerko/Phillips/Alexei.

We're only in R12 so still a ways to go -- the pitching will be weaker than usual (by design).

I expect either the MI or CI to be very weak but we'll see.

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 8th, 2013, 8:26 pm
by Black Sox
Well at least you got Phillips :lol: Ever considered what you'll do when he retires :o

What does your staff look like?

Also I've heard you reccomend you roster 24 P in this format, what's the breakdown of SP vs RP ? also are you rostering MR or is the focus on SP & Closers? Is your starting line up most weeks a 7/2 split and are you streaming one of your SP spots?

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 8th, 2013, 8:36 pm
by Todd Zola
This is not an NFBC Draft Champions (formerly slow draft). Uses once a week moves with FAAB.

Zimmermann, Cueto, John Johnson, Parker and Holland -- nice ratios but low on K's so I'll need to stream well.

I'd want at least 18 starting pitchers in NFBC-DC format. Then 2 "safe" closers, 2 solid MR and 2 speculative closers with 2 wild card spots.

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 10th, 2013, 8:49 am
by AllstonRockCity
Black Sox wrote:
Captain Hook wrote:Top 12 from JBL draft that Todd and I wrote up earlier
R. Braun
M. Cabrera
Trout
Cano
McCutchen
Pujols
Fielder
Kemp
Bautista
C. Gonzalez
Votto
Longoria
I'd want no part of mccutchen or longoria as a 1st round pick. Bautista is a tough one since there is a real chance his wrist injury could sap some of his power or worse. If he's slow out of the gate and lets say puts up .280 29 90 90 or so he's no longer a 1st round pick ( really you just drafted Holliday in rd 1 ). I was surprised that the projections here were bullish on him returning to pre injury production. The fact he is still not at full strength is skipping the WBC, makes me little nervous.

With the ginormous caveat that I have not yet really begun my prep for the season and am going strictly off of my ever diminishing memory/expanding gut, I have to agree with this statement.

Now, maybe the reason Longo makes the top 12 is purely be default (no one else is good enough), and that's all well and good. But I can not get behind him as a 1st rounder based on his own merits. I'm fairly certain that Longo is about to break some sort of record for the player that's been drafted in the 1st the most times, yet has NEVER returned 1st round value.

Same song and dance every year with this guy (who BTW is 1 of my favorite players).......excuses X, Y & Z as to why he didn't put up 1st round numbers the year before. But reasons A, B & C as to why he will this year.

Do I think he is talented enough to put up top 12 numbers? Abso-friggin-lutely. However, until he actually does it, I'm passing in the 1st and maybe even the 1st half of the 2nd.

His backers kinda remind me of Sox fans pre 2004.....Wait til next year, it'll be our year

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 10th, 2013, 10:29 am
by Todd Zola
McCutchen scares me. I've taken him a few times in the 5/6 spot and I hate it.

Assuming someone takes Trout in the top-3, I am fine with Cano at 4 so I'm comfortable in the top-4 (I would take Cano 3rd).

After that, I HATE it. I'd rather pick last in the round.

If you separate the players into high upside but risky and lower ceiling but safe, I have Cutch at the top of the former with Albert and Prince at the top of the latter.

When push comes to shove in March, I'm not sure which way I would go -- right now I'm taking Cutch because to me the risk is the batting average, the counting stats will be there and there are some 1B I want to get later.

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 10th, 2013, 12:11 pm
by Black Sox
Todd Wouldn't the pick then at 5/6 be Cargo or Kemp?

Cargo just seems more stable and I feel like his upside is the same as McCutchen. Cargo does get nicked up but he put up similar numbers to McCutchen with less games played. For my money I'd also rather a Rockie vs Pirate.

I'm a little scared by Kemp this year because I'm afraid he won't run to lessen injury ( a la N.Cruz ) but even without the elite SB he's still a better pick than McCutchen in my mind

From what I can tell you'd really prefer to get that HR/SB combo early ( as would I ) however I'm coming to the realization that at that point if lets say the agreed top 4 are off the board + Cargo/Kemp I'm thinking of going 1B and nabbing Votto, Pujols or Fielder.

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 10th, 2013, 1:07 pm
by Captain Hook
I think the doubts on McCutchen are unfounded at least as it relates to total value - Yes his BAvg rates to regress but even in the 290s his overall contributions should return first round value

Note that in his first four years in the major leagues, his R, RBI and HR have ALL increased each year .... and he is still only 26 and headed into his "prime years"

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 10th, 2013, 2:08 pm
by Black Sox
Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 10th, 2013, 3:03 pm
by Todd Zola
The problem with McCutchen's average is the midpoint is in the .290s, this is what I expect.

But his downside is .260-.270.

But as PVH said as well as myself -- the counting stats will be there so I just need to have some BA buffer elsewhere, and if Cutch hits for average, I do better in the category.

Cutch over CarGo because of health concerns. CarGo has more of a chance to miss significant time than McCutchen, IMnotsoHO anyway.

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 10th, 2013, 6:56 pm
by Captain Hook
Black Sox wrote:Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?
Interesting question ...
Is Rihanna in the picture? Are you worried about Kemp missing time this year? Is this the safe pick or boom/bust pick?

At 1.05 personally I would take McCutchen over Kemp ... but it's close and certainly Kemp is the pick for greater upside but lower floor

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 10th, 2013, 7:45 pm
by Black Sox
Captain Hook wrote:
Black Sox wrote:Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?
Interesting question ...
Is Rihanna in the picture? Are you worried about Kemp missing time this year? Is this the safe pick or boom/bust pick?

At 1.05 personally I would take McCutchen over Kemp ... but it's close and certainly Kemp is the pick for greater upside but lower floor
I am worried he misses time, hamstrings are tricky things. I'm worried the SB drop as a means of trying to stay healthy, but I'd still roll the dice with him over McCutchen. I probably start debating it at 9/10 with Fielder.

Like I said I've never seen such a suspect top 10. I really only feel like there are 5 guys I'd bank on returning 1st Rd value, after that I just feel like your mitigating risk, which is why I've started to lean towards the cluster of 1B. Although I thought A Gon was a safe #1 pick last year and we all know how that one turned out.

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 11th, 2013, 11:23 am
by Captain Hook
Well we have to agree to disagree - frankly the first tier talent level is so deep that I understand those who if they can't get a Top 3 or Top 4 pick wanting to draft from the last spot and have first pick in the 2nd and all even rounds

Re: Top 12

Posted: January 11th, 2013, 5:02 pm
by Black Sox
Captain Hook wrote:Well we have to agree to disagree - frankly the first tier talent level is so deep that I understand those who if they can't get a Top 3 or Top 4 pick wanting to draft from the last spot and have first pick in the 2nd and all even rounds
I actually think we agree. I think it's more of a glass 1/2 full vs 1/2 empty way of looking at it. You see lot's of talent evenly matched and I bemoan the lack of truly elite talent.

Re: Top 12

Posted: February 7th, 2013, 7:31 pm
by 2004 Champs
Captain Hook wrote:I have sympathy for your stance on Longoria although if he stays healthy for a whole year he would produce first round numbers but you might be the only one I know of who wouldn't take McCutchen in the first - typically he is going at 1.05 or 1.06 in money league drafts. Why are you down on him?
Longoria has never produced first round numbers, though...are you expecting growth? He, to me, is one of those guys who gets drafted somewhat higher than he should because of perceived value. Not that he's a terrible pick by any means...

Re: Top 12

Posted: February 7th, 2013, 10:32 pm
by Black Sox
2004 Champs wrote:
Captain Hook wrote:I have sympathy for your stance on Longoria although if he stays healthy for a whole year he would produce first round numbers but you might be the only one I know of who wouldn't take McCutchen in the first - typically he is going at 1.05 or 1.06 in money league drafts. Why are you down on him?
Longoria has never produced first round numbers, though...are you expecting growth? He, to me, is one of those guys who gets drafted somewhat higher than he should because of perceived value. Not that he's a terrible pick by any means...
While I'm still not taking him in the 1st round the argument for it does include something I think is true. Longoria is not someone who misses a game here or there or is constantly day to day. Most of the time when he's out he's out which allows you to replace him in the line up. When he plays he gives you elite numbers. So if you draft a competent back up you can mitigate the risk. Strategy also should be based on your size league, deeper the league harder it is to be able to allocate resources to backing up another player.

Re: Top 12

Posted: February 9th, 2013, 3:29 pm
by 2004 Champs
That just isn't so, however....he has never produced quite the level of numbers you are suggesting. Check the history books :) In other words, the problem isn't just injuries---it's lack of production when he's out there, too.

One man's view: it's a move called 'safe' that is actually just 'a clear reach'. If you draft him in the first round, you are hoping he grows and produces at a level he has not done before---which is a perfectly reasonable thing to do, mind you, if done with that set of assumptions.

Re: Top 12

Posted: February 10th, 2013, 5:37 pm
by Black Sox
In 2009 he went for .281 33 113 100 9 that's pretty close to 1st round value to me.
Then in 2011 in 133 games he goes for .244 31 99 78 3. (he's a career .276 hitter )

Add all of this to the fact he just turned 27, and you start to see why people would invest.

Re: Top 12

Posted: February 10th, 2013, 6:31 pm
by Todd Zola
Put his best aggregate season together and you have a top-5 pick. Problem is Longoria hasn't put it all together the same season yet.

if he does it this season, he'll be a consensus top-10 pick next year.

Re: Top 12

Posted: March 25th, 2013, 9:26 am
by lewp
One thing that stands out to me as you look at this top-12, and as I read comments about it being a crap-shoot after the first 4, is Votto. He's down at number 10 and number 3 among 1Bers on this list. Whereas I've seen him as the number 1 1B and as high as 4-5 (although more often around 7) elsewhere. Generally lists I've seen have Votto and Pujols interchangeable around 6 and 7.

Is he being undervalued here? The strong spring would seem to indicate no lingering concern with the miniscus. (Maybe that's it, this was a pre-spring post?)

Thoughts? Thanks.

Re: Top 12

Posted: March 25th, 2013, 11:51 am
by Todd Zola
lewp wrote:One thing that stands out to me as you look at this top-12, and as I read comments about it being a crap-shoot after the first 4, is Votto. He's down at number 10 and number 3 among 1Bers on this list. Whereas I've seen him as the number 1 1B and as high as 4-5 (although more often around 7) elsewhere. Generally lists I've seen have Votto and Pujols interchangeable around 6 and 7.

Is he being undervalued here? The strong spring would seem to indicate no lingering concern with the miniscus. (Maybe that's it, this was a pre-spring post?)

Thoughts? Thanks.
Even with a healthy knee, Votto's power is capped as he does not hit many fly balls and relies on a high HR/FB.

I don't see him running much anymore

If his power is back, that makes him a 25 HR guy with a high average - sounds more like Butler/AGonz than the #5 pick to me.

The only reason he's not lower in my projections is I didn't adjust the SB down. The 9 carries over pre-injury numbers.

Re: Top 12

Posted: August 23rd, 2013, 8:26 pm
by 2004 Champs
Just a follow-up on the Longoria discussion: he's been healthy all year, and he's just nowhere close to top 10 value.

Moral of the story: expecting veterans to perform at a higher level than they have before is not a great bet! Of course, neither is Matt Kemp...so you can lose in the first round in a number of ways.

Re: Top 12

Posted: August 23rd, 2013, 10:07 pm
by Todd Zola
2004 Champs wrote:Just a follow-up on the Longoria discussion: he's been healthy all year, and he's just nowhere close to top 10 value.

Moral of the story: expecting veterans to perform at a higher level than they have before is not a great bet! Of course, neither is Matt Kemp...so you can lose in the first round in a number of ways.
For the record, he's been on the field but not 100% healthy. Not saying he would have been a first rounder - just pointing out he's been playing hurt.

I have him as the 45th hitter now so add in a few pitchers and he's 4th/5th round talent.

Re: Top 12

Posted: August 24th, 2013, 11:50 am
by Captain Hook
and btw he will get drafted too early again next year - of course so will Tulowitzki and Kemp