He seems way down on draft boards, average of 271 on NFBC, and about 70 picks behind Moustakas. Is my off-the-cuff projection of Gurriel's line (.275, 25, 75, 75, 5) too high? Is it a worry about the playing time, or where he'll be in the batting order?
I'm giving a bit of a boost based on the $$ he got from the Astros. If he doesn't project for at least a .275/.325/.450 type with 25 home runs, why did the Astros pay so much for him to play first base? (by the same token, even though I'm intrigued by what Thames might do, I think he's being overdrafted in NFBC).
If he's really more of a .260/.305/.430 type that's basically a replacement-level player and not worth any $$.
And just kicking the statcast data around a little, his flyball and line drive authority probably about average, which could definitely be 20-25 HR range, and his groundball authority was well above average and can drive a solid batting average.
Maybe I'm being optimistic, and I certainly won't draft him before Moustakas gets drafted, but I'm targeting him in my AL only auction and will be looking at grabbing him a round or even two before his ADP if I still need a 3B/CI in other leagues. He just seems like he has a pretty high floor with a bit of upside, relative to where he's being taken. The biggest risk is if he starts a little slow or unlucky and gets the Byung Ho Park treatment.
Are you really projecting based on how much money a player is paid?
FWIW -- I'm not sure you're looking at Statcast data. That's more exit velocity and launch angle. GB/FB/LD distribution really isn't Statcast. That said, his hard hit rate is below average, which mitigates the BABIP boost from GB.
Plus, even more importantly, that's not nearly sufficient playing time for any of those metrics to stabilize. Contact, however, stabilizes quickly and it bodes well that he recorded such a solid rate.
Speaking of which, keep in mind he'll be 33 in June, with fewer than 200 PA since 2014.
Is there upside? Sure, there's always upside with the unknown. I'll push him to the low double-digits in AL only auctions. In the NFBC, he's reserve fodder for me. I'd rather grab Adonis Garcia in the twenties.
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How much money a player is paid only factors in for me when it's a mature, international player whose stats are hard to project based just on converting league stats over, which means just a couple of players per year, if that. The Astros scouts and management have a much better idea of Gurriel's potential than anyone else, considering he logged just over 100 PAs in the big leagues last year.
I was looking at his statcast data on FB/LD and GB exit velocities (not %s). I trust those more than I trust the subjective hard%.
Garcia is an interesting player in a lineup that should be pretty good this season, but I'd put money on Gurriel having a better fantasy season.
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