NFBC DC Express

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Todd Zola
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NFBC DC Express

#1 Post by Todd Zola »

750 picks in 4-5 hours. It's drafting's form of porn.

I always make a point of doing one draft where having some fun is a bit more integrated into the picks than normal for me. Traditionally I'll do a satellite league after all my other drafts are done and focus on some players I haven't rostered yet.

This year I opted to have my fun early. Partially because my schedule may not permit this late draft but more importantly, I felt I could reach for some of these fun guys a little and not weaken my squad at all so that's what I did here.

1.13 Rizzo, Anthony - super high on Rizzo this season
2.03 Jones, Adam - wasn't in the plan (Donaldson was) but can't pass on a top-10 guy at pick 18
3.13 Zimmermann, Jordan - best SP left and I wanted a top arm
4.03 Reyes, Jose - don't like the injury risk in this format but a big fan of his game
5.13 Calhoun, Kole - if this surprises you you're not paying attention
6.03 Gattis, Evan - as a FT LF could be top-3 catcher
7.13 Cishek, Steve - quietly solid
8.03 Cashner, Andrew - another high ceiling but risky pick (which isn't what you really want in this format)
9.13 Carpenter, Matt - BLECH, but it was Carpenter or Sandoval and I wanted the more durable player since reserves would be BLECHIER
10.03 Smyly, Drew - Hard to say what he'll do with 30 starts but I'm guessing it'll be pretty good
11.13 Kendrick, Howie - 2B is full of usable parts at the end but I wanted a little BA support since I may need it
12.03 Pollock, A.J. - another favorite, lost on Yelich, Pollock is similar and in better park
13.13 Ramos, Wilson - in retrospect I didn't need this and would like it back but was feeling the need for power and Ramos has 20 HR potential
14.03 Morneau, Justin - part of plan is getting as many corners/OF that have strong split advantages and use the group that is strongest for that transaction period
15.13 Boxberger, Brad - taking my CL3 before my CL2 b/c I don't want to miss him, and he could be CL2
16.03 Pompey, Dalton - another big fave
17.13 Nathan, Joe - my CL2, a very risky one. A closer instead of Ramos would have been better
18.03 Tillman, Chris - not my favorite choice (AL arm in hitters park) but also has decent wins potential and I need that
19.13 Peraza, Jose - probably too early but I don't care. Several in the room are subscribers and according to my projections this is around where he should go and I wanted to make sure none of the subscribers would snipe him
20.03 Reddick, Josh - like what I saw the 2H of last season
21.13 Sanchez, Aaron - doubt it but could be closer, regardless, an arm that will help in any role with no health concerns
22.03 Smith, Seth - not the ideal park to stream in but does have the LHB split advantage if Mariners face 3 RHP
23.13 Johnson, Chris - offers what Carpenter offers but not as good, still, an adequate reserve at a cesspool of a position
24.03 Cron, C.J. - I play in a fantasy football league with him -- 'nuff said
25.13 Greene, Shane - streaming option
26.03 House, T.J. - may not break camp as starter but will get chance
27.13 Rutledge, Josh - contractually obligated and need Peraza hedge
28.03 Jones, Garrett - has both LHB and park split for strong transaction periods
29.13 Kiermaier, Kevin - nice emergence fill-in
30.03 Joseph, Caleb - first reason I don't need Ramos, Wieters may not be ready immediately and I bet Wieters also rests more and/or plays more at DH
31.13 McKenry, Michael - second reason, if Rosario is traded I see McKenry in at least a split with Hundley with a good chance at 55/45 or even 60/40.
32.03 Koehler, Tom - streaming option, NL, nice park
33.13 Aviles, Mike - perfect reserve in DC with eligibility all over infield
34.03 Conger, Hank - insurance if I decide to use Gattis in the OF
35.13 Graveman, Kendall - don't like the SP with a definite job (or better stated, they'll be around later) so I'm taking the backups I like the best
36.03 Erlin, Robbie - part Cashner hedge, part same reason as Graveman
37.13 Nolin, Sean - see Graveman
38.03 Galvis, Freddy - could be a wasted pick if he doesn't keep SS job with J-Roll gone but idea is I need more support for injury-prone Reyes and Peraza
39.13 Lobstein, Kyle - another in-season replacement possibility and could even be SP5 if Tigers don't replace Scherzer
40.03 Sanchez, Carlos - more MI support
41.13 Jordan, Taylor - like Erlin, he's a Zimmermann hedge
42.03 Nolasco, Ricky - remember that quip about guys with a rotation spot I didn't like at the time? They look almost palatable in round 42
43.13 Phelps, David - actually a glitch pick but it's round 43 and to be truthful, would have taken him two rounds later and I got the other two guys I wanted as well
44.03 Detwiler, Ross - wanted Detwiler in R43, like the arm, not so much the park but I'll some weeks he can help
45.13 Vincent, Nick - wanted one more solid middle arm (would have been R44 pick)
46.03 Karns, Nathan - nice arm in nice park if he gets the chance
47.13 Izturis, Maicer - Reyes handcuff (hey, it's round 47)
48.03 Workman, Brandon - requisite Red Sox when I'm having fun
49.13 Lough, David - solid skills so if he happens to get more PT, could be useful and Jones hedge
50.03 Ranaudo, Anthony - Workman handcuff ;)

C Gattis Ramos (Joseph McKenry Conger)

1B/3B Rizzo Carpenter Morneau (Johnson Cron Jones)

2B/SS Reyes Kendrick Peraza (Rutledge Aviles Galvis Sanchez Izturis)

OF/UT* Jones Calhoun Pollock Pompey Reddick Smith (Kiermaier Lough)

SP Zimmermann Cashner Smyly Tillman Greene House (Koehler Graveman Erlin Nolin Lobstein Jordan Nolasco Phelps Detwiler Karns Ranaudo)

RP Cishek Boxberger Nathan (Sanchez Vincent Workman)

* UT could come from 1B/3B
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Captain Hook

Re: NFBC DC Express

#2 Post by Captain Hook »

Nice - I will post my "split draft" squad if we ever finish (the first 23 rounds were drafted live at First Pitch AZ in early November, the rest are being done online and started Tuesday and we have done only 8+ rounds due to some very uninterested drafters)

southpaw

Re: NFBC DC Express

#3 Post by southpaw »

Interestingly, I just drafted Reddick at 20.3 in my slow DC.

My roster thus far:

C: D'Arnaud (12)
1B: C Santana (6), B Butler (17)
2B: Rendon (1)
SS: A Cabrera (16)
3B: Frazier (3), Wright (7)
OF: Cespedes (5), R Castillo (8), Rios (11), K Davis (13), Reddick (20)

SP: Felix (2), Ryu (9), Tanaka (10), Wacha (14), Petit (18)
RP: Jansen (4), A Miller (15), W Davis (19)

I like the flexibility - Santana and Frazier both have 1b & 3b, Rendon 2b & 3b and Asdrubal SS & 2b. Wright was unfortunately a timed out pick. I didn't expect my pick to come back to me overnight and didn't have anyone queued up so it auto selected highest ranked player which was Wright at the time. So he'll be my CI initially. Closer, as usual, went very fast. I wasn't about to spend an 11th round pick on Gregorson or K-Rod so I waited on Miller. I expect the Yankees to use Betances as main closer but I feel that Miller will get a handful (10-12?) of saves vs. LH 9th inning batters. Yanks have 2 other LH in bullpen for a reason.
I'm probably going to be short on speed unless Castillo breaks off a 50SB season so I'll look to address that in the next 10 rounds with some cheap speed. Also a little short on power but not sure I can do something about that now. Will try to find potential somewhere....

Thoughts?

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Todd Zola
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Re: NFBC DC Express

#4 Post by Todd Zola »

for speed I'd look at Peraza or Pompey if available

more philosophical than anything but if you want a closer of a certain quality then you need to adjust to the market price and not take them at your price -- or be willing to miss out (which is fine) but refusing to pay the market because it's different than your price usually results in a deficiency as opposed to gaining an advantage with the player taken instead of the closer.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

southpaw

Re: NFBC DC Express

#5 Post by southpaw »

Todd Zola wrote:for speed I'd look at Peraza or Pompey if available

more philosophical than anything but if you want a closer of a certain quality then you need to adjust to the market price and not take them at your price -- or be willing to miss out (which is fine) but refusing to pay the market because it's different than your price usually results in a deficiency as opposed to gaining an advantage with the player taken instead of the closer.
Yeah, I get that.
My point in bypassing taking them at that spot is that I have no confidence that either of them will be in a position to get the category that they are being drafted for. I suppose there's a good chance Gregorson has the job but it's far from certain. Every year there is more and more turnover at the closer position and guys that have the skills but not the role at the beginning of the year end up with the job by the end, i.e. McGee and Doolittle.
I guess I'm drafting by the 'draft the skills, not the role' mantra.

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Re: NFBC DC Express

#6 Post by Todd Zola »

southpaw wrote: My point in bypassing taking them at that spot is that I have no confidence that either of them will be in a position to get the category that they are being drafted for. I suppose there's a good chance Gregorson has the job but it's far from certain.
makes sense
southpaw wrote: Every year there is more and more turnover at the closer position and guys that have the skills but not the role at the beginning of the year end up with the job by the end, i.e. McGee and Doolittle.
I guess I'm drafting by the 'draft the skills, not the role' mantra.
Actually, the turnover is different year to year -- some years more, some less. The key is there's always turnover.

That said, it's a crapshoot if you get Doolittle or a guy that failed - not to mention this is less useful in a league without FAAB. Sometimes you have to draft roles in the draft and hold format then draft skills later to backfill if the roles guy flames out and is useless.

The BHQ draft skills not roles mantra was intended for a completely different animal and although they may still argue otherwise, it isn't universally applicable. Everything is contextual.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

southpaw

Re: NFBC DC Express

#7 Post by southpaw »

You obviously like Peraza a lot, as do I.
How concerned are you that he won't get any type of shot until mid-season?
They have Callaspo on a one year deal and just acquired Jace Peterson from the Padres. 3 way competition, no?

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Todd Zola
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Re: NFBC DC Express

#8 Post by Todd Zola »

Concerned enough that I'm making sure I don't need Peraza's steals to compete but I wouldn't waste them either.

Basing it off this quote from Fredi

"If he doesn't break camp with us, he may be a guy you send him down to Double‑A, Triple‑A, let him play 30, 40 games and then next thing you know he's there,"

I cut him back to 65% PT -- that's assuming he gets called up after the Super 2 deadline.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Captain Hook

Re: NFBC DC Express

#9 Post by Captain Hook »

southpaw wrote: Yeah, I get that.
I suppose there's a good chance Gregorson has the job but it's far from certain.
Actually I strongly disagree - they gave him that money to BE the closer
They also don't want to use those that couldn't do the job last year.
Could Gregerson fail? Sure he has never closed for a full season but he has the skills AND the job in Houston.

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Re: NFBC DC Express

#10 Post by aburt19 »

In the original post, the pick of Tillman mentioned his strikeout rate being below league average.
But the numbers are really strange. In 2013 his k/9 was 7.7. Before the All-Star break in 2014,
his k/9 was 5.4. After the break it was 7.6.

I don't know what that means for 2015, but it is strange.

ETA- Tillman had a 4 game stretch in late June-early July where he struck out 6 in 27 innings. Otherwise his k/9
without those games was 6.7 for the 1st half and 7.2 for the season.

Captain Hook

Re: NFBC DC Express

#11 Post by Captain Hook »

At First Pitch AZ which is held (generally) on the first weekend in November during the Arizona Fall League (on the weekend of the Fall Stars Game), there are several drafts for attendees to participate in if they choose. I always draft a team in the NFBC leagues they have there as I enjoy drafting early and the draft & hold format - well that and first place is a free conference registration the following year.

So remember this was first weekend of November 2014 that we did the first twenty three rounds.
From the 1.03 spot my picks were:
1.03 - Giancarlo Stanton
2.13 - Freddie Freeman
3.03 - Adam Wainwright
4.13 - Yu Darvish
5.03 - Jason Kipnis
6.13 - George Springer
7.03 - Starling Marte
8.13 - Koji Uehara
9.03 - Kole Calhoun
10.13 - Gio Gonzalez
11.03 - Xander Bogaerts
12.13 - Jenry Mejia
13.03 - Andrelton Simmons
14.13 - Dioner Navarro
15.03 - Jose Fernandez
16.13 - Wellington Castillo
17.03 - Rick Porcello
18.13 - Carlos Ruiz
19.03 - Arismendy Alcantara
20.13 - Mike Minor
21.03 - Chase Headley
22.13 - LaTroy Hawkins
23.03 - Seth Smith

Obviously a lot of things changed with the winter meetings - I had left the draft with three starting catchers but when the draft resumed online on January 6, I had just one. Headley got a job and Smithh lost one. Still I thought my start was terrific so now to round out the team.

Here is the final team by position:

C - Navarro, Castillo, Ruiz, Mike McKenry, Rene Rivera, Caleb Joseph

1B - Freeman and Justin Smoak

3B - Bogaerts (also SS), Headley, and Conor Gillaspie

2B - Kipnis, Alcantara (also OF), Jose Peraza, Logan Forsythe, Steve Tolleson

SS - Simmons and Eugenio Saurez

OF - Stanton, Springer, Marte, Calhoun, Smith, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Barnes, Kevin Frandsen

SP - Wainwright, Darvish, Minor, Porcello, Gonzalez, Fernandez, David Hale, Sean Nolin, Vance Worley, Charlie Morton, Alex Colome, Matt Harrison Brandon Morrow, Ross Detwiler, Corey Luebke

RP - Uehara, Mejia, Hawkins, Bruce Rondon, Domonic Leone, Tom Wilhelmsen, Kelvin Herrera + Matt Belisle


There are several pitchers who probably won't appear until later in the year - hopefully they are active in time as there is always a lot of attrition on pitching staffs during the season (hopefully not as bad as last year). I think Fernandez will be back in June and obviously he is a huge key for this team.

Yes, six catchers may be excessive but remember I lost two starters. Besides you should see what other teams are rolling with :D

southpaw

Re: NFBC DC Express

#12 Post by southpaw »

southpaw wrote:Interestingly, I just drafted Reddick at 20.3 in my slow DC.

My roster thus far:

C: D'Arnaud (12)
1B: C Santana (6), B Butler (17)
2B: Rendon (1)
SS: A Cabrera (16)
3B: Frazier (3), Wright (7)
OF: Cespedes (5), R Castillo (8), Rios (11), K Davis (13), Reddick (20)

SP: Felix (2), Ryu (9), Tanaka (10), Wacha (14), Petit (18)
RP: Jansen (4), A Miller (15), W Davis (19)

I like the flexibility - Santana and Frazier both have 1b & 3b, Rendon 2b & 3b and Asdrubal SS & 2b. Wright was unfortunately a timed out pick. I didn't expect my pick to come back to me overnight and didn't have anyone queued up so it auto selected highest ranked player which was Wright at the time. So he'll be my CI initially. Closer, as usual, went very fast. I wasn't about to spend an 11th round pick on Gregorson or K-Rod so I waited on Miller. I expect the Yankees to use Betances as main closer but I feel that Miller will get a handful (10-12?) of saves vs. LH 9th inning batters. Yanks have 2 other LH in bullpen for a reason.
I'm probably going to be short on speed unless Castillo breaks off a 50SB season so I'll look to address that in the next 10 rounds with some cheap speed. Also a little short on power but not sure I can do something about that now. Will try to find potential somewhere....

Thoughts?
Rounds 21 - 32:

21: Jaso (C)
22: Parnell (P)
23: S Smith (OF)
24: Peraza (2B)
25: Rutledge (SS)
26: Cingrani (P)
27: Cervelli (C)
28: J Chavez (P)
29: C Young (OF)
30: B Cecil (P)
31: Buxton (OF)
32: Aviles (2B, 3B, OF)

Lots of flexibility and unless I get really unlucky, I should be able to maximize my ABs throughout the season. Picked a couple more closer candidates in Parnell and Cecil. Took a flyer on Buxton as I was all set to take R Elias with that pick and he was snagged right before me. Probably a wasted pick but I think there's a reasonable chance he's up in the summer if the Twins are in contention. Granted, I know chances are slim. But I thought I could afford the chance.
Looking now for some "6th starters" to add pitching depth. Definitely need at least one more catcher, probably two.

Captain Hook

Re: NFBC DC Express

#13 Post by Captain Hook »

southpaw wrote: I suppose there's a good chance Gregorson has the job but it's far from certain. .
Getting back to this because the Astros depth chart on their website (which MLB.com requires to be updated) is currently showing Chad Qualls as the closer with Gregerson next in line. Given that Gregerson has been a great set up reliever that may well hold UNLESS Qualls fails (he wasn't as bad last year as some think they remember)

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Re: NFBC DC Express

#14 Post by aburt19 »

The Astros might use Qualls as closer early in the season and if he's successful, trade him
to a contender to use as a setup man.

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Re: NFBC DC Express

#15 Post by aburt19 »

Captain Hook wrote:
southpaw wrote: I suppose there's a good chance Gregorson has the job but it's far from certain. .
Getting back to this because the Astros depth chart on their website (which MLB.com requires to be updated) is currently showing Chad Qualls as the closer with Gregerson next in line. Given that Gregerson has been a great set up reliever that may well hold UNLESS Qualls fails (he wasn't as bad last year as some think they remember)[/quote

I went to the website and the depth chart says that MLB.com does the depth chart with no
approval from the Astros.

Captain Hook

Re: NFBC DC Express

#16 Post by Captain Hook »

aburt19 wrote:
Captain Hook wrote:
southpaw wrote: I suppose there's a good chance Gregorson has the job but it's far from certain. .
Getting back to this because the Astros depth chart on their website (which MLB.com requires to be updated) is currently showing Chad Qualls as the closer with Gregerson next in line. Given that Gregerson has been a great set up reliever that may well hold UNLESS Qualls fails (he wasn't as bad last year as some think they remember)[/quote

I went to the website and the depth chart says that MLB.com does the depth chart with no
approval from the Astros.
Good catch there and I think this is a recent tag so that MLB.com could keep updated off transactions and speed and yet tell people not to call the clubs with questions/comments.

I still think that they will try Qualls to start the year - Gregerson is an extremely strong setup pitcher with not much closing experience/success. IF Qualls holds the job then Neshek>Gregerson>Qualls is a very strong 7-8-9 lineup

aburt19
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Re: NFBC DC Express

#17 Post by aburt19 »

Good catch there and I think this is a recent tag so that MLB.com could keep updated off transactions and speed and yet tell people not to call the clubs with questions/comments.

I still think that they will try Qualls to start the year - Gregerson is an extremely strong setup pitcher with not much closing experience/success. IF Qualls holds the job then Neshek>Gregerson>Qualls is a very strong 7-8-9 lineup[/quote]

I agree that Qualls may have the job to start the season. If he is successful, Houston can
trade him to a contender as a set-up man for a prospect.

The Astros offense is looking better with adding Gattis and Valbuena. There may be more saves
for the Astros than what there were last year.

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