Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

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CubFan
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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#71 Post by CubFan » August 21st, 2017, 11:45 pm

da_big_kid_94 wrote:
CubFan wrote:BTW, the Ramirez owner now wishes he would have taken my counter offer.
He got greedy and overplayed his hand. Offer him Trout for Ramirez straight up and see what he says if he has all of this remorse.
Too late.....the trade deadline is passed.
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3

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da_big_kid_94
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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#72 Post by da_big_kid_94 » August 22nd, 2017, 6:04 am

CubFan wrote:
da_big_kid_94 wrote:
CubFan wrote:BTW, the Ramirez owner now wishes he would have taken my counter offer.
He got greedy and overplayed his hand. Offer him Trout for Ramirez straight up and see what he says if he has all of this remorse.
Too late.....the trade deadline is passed.
Ah ...understand. And as for the other post? All of those names are simply answers in search of a problem. Put simply? You could bid a buck on any of them and not impact your Trout situation. I just don't see anything there worth a buck. You really don't have alternate options to look at ... it's Trout of nothing, IMHO.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10

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da_big_kid_94
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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#73 Post by da_big_kid_94 » August 22nd, 2017, 6:25 pm

Wonder how he likes his Salazar deal now?
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10

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CubFan
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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#74 Post by CubFan » August 28th, 2017, 11:56 am

8/28 Update.....nothing changed wrt FAAB amounts for the Owner D and C. Wondering if Owner D is even watching his team any more as he's had Kiermaeir on his reserve while leaving Clint Frazier active the last two weeks. Still in the hunt for one of the last two playoff spots with 3 other teams. If things break the wrong way there could be a 3 or 4 way tie. First tie-breaker is H2H and that looks like a real mess trying to weed through that.
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3

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CubFan
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Posts: 941
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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#75 Post by CubFan » September 4th, 2017, 11:31 am

Playoff Time!......I'm in as the 5th seed (6 make the playoffs). Looks like I'll be riding Trout for as long as I can....as "kid" suggested as my best option which I agreed with.

Owner D is in the lower division playoffs and still has 57 FAAB units left. He did finally activate Kiermaeir so he's not comatose. But.....Owner C who had 44 units left spent some on Sunday and is now down to 33. So, if you're keeping score....

Owner D - 57 units
Me - 49 units
Owner C & another owner - 33 units

My original plan had been if I dropped Trout I would bid 45 or 46, just above Owner C's 44, thinking Owner D (if he wanted Trout) would bid 50 to ensure he got him. But now with 33 being the next highest more uncertainty is introduced into the equation. Granted none of us can get inside his head but for fun if you're Owner D what do you think he's now thinking? Likely keepers for Owner D (max of 8), Alonso $3, Judge $14, Avisail Garcia $5, Gurriel @ $9 or $14, Severino $5, Kiermaeir $4. Maybes...Polanco $12, Clint Frazier $24 (only because he's a big Yankee fan), Pineda $21, Aaron Sanchez $20, Snell $2.

What would you bid knowing that in the two auctions Trout was available he went for $53 (2016), $56 (2015....I got him & came in 3rd)? In past auctions Owner D has bid $45 for Fielder and $44 twice (this year Donaldson and Jones in his heyday) so he's not afraid to bid big bucks.

If I don't advance is it worth lowering my bid a few $$ thinking that Owner D will either bid 50 or somewhere between 37-42 thinking that I'll bid just above Owner C's 33?
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3

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da_big_kid_94
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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#76 Post by da_big_kid_94 » September 4th, 2017, 11:49 am

First - congrats for making your playoffs. Forget the last two auctions and what Trout went for - meaningless. At the last two auctions, everyone had a shot at Trout so you were dealing with a much larger field of competitors. Now it's a two man auction with no precedent.

if I were owner D, I'd pull a You. I'd drop Donaldson right now and bid 10 units for him on Sunday. He knows you can't drop Trout now so he has you just where he wants you, especially now that you are in the playoffs. He also knows you won't bid on Donaldson because you need all of your FAAB for Trout. He just might figure he can sneak Donaldson through while you're involved with the playoffs. Either way, he simply waits you out. Owner C probably saw what was going on and figured it would be better for him to get his while he could because there wouldn't be much competition from either you or Owner D.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10

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CubFan
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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#77 Post by CubFan » September 4th, 2017, 1:07 pm

da_big_kid_94 wrote: if I were owner D, I'd pull a You. I'd drop Donaldson right now and bid 10 units for him on Sunday. He knows you can't drop Trout now so he has you just where he wants you, especially now that you are in the playoffs. He also knows you won't bid on Donaldson because you need all of your FAAB for Trout. He just might figure he can sneak Donaldson through while you're involved with the playoffs. Either way, he simply waits you out. Owner C probably saw what was going on and figured it would be better for him to get his while he could because there wouldn't be much competition from either you or Owner D.
First, thanks for your opinion.

Earliest we can drop a player is this coming Sunday. To play devil's advocate if he were to drop Donaldson and try to pick him up for $10 there would be 3 other owners who could and would bid more. They have 16, 33 and 33 respectively.

What are your thoughts on if I don't advance how much would you bid on Trout now that Owner C is down to 33.....and knowing I can't outbid Owner D? Bid upper 30s, lower 40s, 49????
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3

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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#78 Post by da_big_kid_94 » September 4th, 2017, 4:43 pm

If they outbid him, so be it. He doesn't need to keep Donaldson if he's ultimately after Trout ...the mystery would be gone by making this move ...and you're on the short end. If he were to drop Donaldson and get him back and STILL be FAAB leader? That would kill you. You're thinking about changing your bid due to a pickup by a non factor in the Trout Wars to begin with. If you want to fiddle with your bid, your call ..but what happens if you're still playing meaningful games the last week of the season. Since he can't drop until next Sunday (9/10), that means two weeks (9/17) until you know what happens with Donaldson. You're running out of time for the season since now you can't make a call on Trout even if you get bounced from the playoffs until September 17 - and that awarding would be Sept 24 if I read youy calendar right. And if you are still in the playoffs on September 24? You're dead.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10

User avatar
CubFan
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Posts: 941
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Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#79 Post by CubFan » September 4th, 2017, 7:26 pm

da_big_kid_94 wrote:......but what happens if you're still playing meaningful games the last week of the season. Since he can't drop until next Sunday (9/10), that means two weeks (9/17) until you know what happens with Donaldson. You're running out of time for the season since now you can't make a call on Trout even if you get bounced from the playoffs until September 17 - and that awarding would be Sept 24 if I read youy calendar right. And if you are still in the playoffs on September 24? You're dead.
True on all counts. Maybe I wasn't clear on my earlier post but I'd only revisit this gambit IF I'm eliminated in the playoffs.

The other question I've asked myself is to what degree (how high does he bid) would he be interested in Trout? That's why I went back to see how high has he bid on players in our auctions. And yes, it is a bit like comparing apples to oranges but it's the only data to analyze. Can't use previous FAAB pickup values as Trout is in a league by himself.
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3

User avatar
da_big_kid_94
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Posts: 1527
Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am
Preferred Style: NL and AL 4x4 Only Ultra Keeper Auctions

Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario

#80 Post by da_big_kid_94 » September 5th, 2017, 5:33 am

CubFan wrote:That's why I went back to see how high has he bid on players in our auctions. And yes, it is a bit like comparing apples to oranges but it's the only data to analyze. Can't use previous FAAB pickup values as Trout is in a league by himself.
Which, after all, is the point. It's exactly like apples and oranges - there really is no pertinent data for you to analyze. That's simply trying to extrapolate facts out of thin air so I wouldn't waste my time doing it ... you have as much chance of gaining insight by wetting your index finger and holding it to the wind. Why concern yourself with how much someone else may bid if you can't drop him? I'd start to prepare myself to lose Trout with nothing to show for it unless you win the championship. As you admit, you are frozen until you are out of the playoffs and would not revisit that gambit. My point is that gambit is now time sensitive and you may not get the chance to revisit.

The problem is that you are now on a plus 2 week cycle. The earliest you can currently drop him is September 10 - which you can't do because you'd be in the middle of your playoff round. So now the earliest you can drop him is September 17 if you lose - but you don't know if you'll get him before September 24 - so you would have to lose the next round of your playoffs to try it ... that's why your window has now been shortened considerably.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10

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