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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 15th, 2017, 1:55 pm 
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Location: Yellow Springs, Ohio
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There is a saying attributed to Joe Kennedy, "Only a damn fool chases the last dollar." I have found myself being that person more than once.

I have to ask a question, what is the downside to keeping Trout next year at $58? If you're not keeping Dozier you could take that cash and apply it to Trout. Is that big of a salary just too much to take on in your league?

TB

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10 team AL only. 4x4 with strikeouts. No drops without DL or Minors. Can keep 5 up to 3 years if $10 or under.
C: 1B: 2B: SS: C. Correa - $1 3B: A. Bregman - $1
CI: MI:
OF: E. Rosario - $1, B. Buxton - $1
SP: B. Snell - $1, T. Bauer - $3, L. Giolito - $1
RP:
Minors: V. Guerrero, , M. Manning, J. Lowe, L. Taveras


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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 15th, 2017, 3:01 pm 
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Without putting words in CubFan's mouth, Bob ...seems to be more of an issue fitting those 58 units under his 310 unit hard cap.

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These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10


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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 15th, 2017, 4:19 pm 
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Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
da_big_kid_94 wrote:
Without putting words in CubFan's mouth, Bob ...seems to be more of an issue fitting those 58 units under his 310 unit hard cap.


The 310 salary cap is an in-season cap. I'd have to fit his $58 salary under our draft day cap of 260. That's a big piece of the pie.

To answer Bob's question "What is the downside to keeping Trout next year at $58? If you're not keeping Dozier you could take that cash and apply it to Trout. Is that big of a salary just too much to take on in your league?" The downside is $58 of a $260 total is huge and would have some negative affects on my flexibility/bidding. If I were keeping 7 other players (we can protect a max of 8) who were studs or semi-studs at salaries less than $5 I could handle that.

Projected 2018 keepers....
Sanchez $14 (2 yr contract for 2018-2019)
Gregorius $9
Mancini $9
Kepler $6 (sign for 1 year)
Marwin Gonzalez $1

Possibilities...
Beckham $3
McHugh $3
Kluber $35....only because our league values aces highly. Sale goes back into the draft so I could throw him back and get him for same or less
Montgomery $5
Bird $6 - sign to a 1 yr contract
Treinen $1 - only if it looks like he's closing
Kela $1 - only if he's got the inside track at closing

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3


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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 18th, 2017, 2:10 pm 
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Joined: January 1st, 2009, 4:20 pm
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Location: Yellow Springs, Ohio
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Not that I think you're foolish, CubFan. You know this game much better than I. I just like the quote and it reminds me against reaching too far - a personal weakness. I'd still be surprised that there isn't a market for Trout this year but that $310 is unforgiving.

I did think of one thing when I should have been sleeping, if the Donaldson owner contemplated the same tactic, he's frozen because if he goes first you'd have the most left to bid on Trout. Aren't you both painted into the same corner?

_________________
10 team AL only. 4x4 with strikeouts. No drops without DL or Minors. Can keep 5 up to 3 years if $10 or under.
C: 1B: 2B: SS: C. Correa - $1 3B: A. Bregman - $1
CI: MI:
OF: E. Rosario - $1, B. Buxton - $1
SP: B. Snell - $1, T. Bauer - $3, L. Giolito - $1
RP:
Minors: V. Guerrero, , M. Manning, J. Lowe, L. Taveras


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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 18th, 2017, 2:30 pm 
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Tampa Bob wrote:
I did think of one thing when I should have been sleeping, if the Donaldson owner contemplated the same tactic, he's frozen because if he goes first you'd have the most left to bid on Trout. Aren't you both painted into the same corner?

To me, it depends on who blinks first, Bob. Will owner D throw Donaldson back before CubFan releases (sorry ...bad but obvious pun) Trout? If he does, CubFan could pull this off ...but if he doesn't, he probably knows CubFan won't keep Trout under these circumstances. And as CubFan pointed out ...the 310 unit problem lasts for 5 more weeks ...the 260 unit problem lasts until next year's auction.

_________________
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10


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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 18th, 2017, 5:59 pm 
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Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
da_big_kid_94 wrote:
Tampa Bob wrote:
I did think of one thing when I should have been sleeping, if the Donaldson owner contemplated the same tactic, he's frozen because if he goes first you'd have the most left to bid on Trout. Aren't you both painted into the same corner?

To me, it depends on who blinks first, Bob. Will owner D throw Donaldson back before CubFan releases (sorry ...bad but obvious pun) Trout? If he does, CubFan could pull this off ...but if he doesn't, he probably knows CubFan won't keep Trout under these circumstances. And as CubFan pointed out ...the 310 unit problem lasts for 5 more weeks ...the 260 unit problem lasts until next year's auction.


In answer to Bob's question I just realized there's another tidbit of info I forgot to share. Bear with me. As mentioned previously we have an in-season salary cap of $310 PLUS a minimum salary cap of $220. My current team salary is $294, Owner D's is $263. If Owner D were to drop his $44 Donaldson first in order to pick him up his team salary would drop to $219 which is UNDER the min team salary, so he'd have to use at least $1 on a hitter. If he fails to pick up a hitter his request to drop Donaldson would be voided as he'd be under the salary min. BTW, the $260 salary cap is only in effect on draft day.

Since Owner D is a huge Yankees' fan I've toyed with the idea of dropping Chapman first, kinda like baiting the hook. But I'd do this ONLY IF I was out of the playoff race and Owner C, who's in the thick of the playoff hunt, with $44 of FAAB left spent 10+. Chapman's salary is $21. Owner C has a team salary of $290 who could shed $20+ and pick him up for more than $20. His closers are Allen and Britton so he may not want to bid much if at all. The next highest owner has $18 of FAAB left but I figure he'd spend $10-15. So, owner D would likely need to spend around $15 to ensure he got him. Too complicated that it's not likely a viable strategy attm. But something to file away.

I also think owner D knows I can't fit Donaldson under the $310 salary cap as the most I could bid is around $25 (I'd have to shed some players), but Owner C could shed $20 and bid $40. So, it's not worth Owner D to drop Donaldson unless Owner C sheds $10+ of FAAB.

A complicated triangle. BTW, the Ramirez owner now wishes he would have taken my counter offer.

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3


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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 21st, 2017, 8:47 am 
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Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
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Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
Nothing changed after Sunday wrt FAAB as Owners C and D made no bids.

I'm now tied with 2 other teams for the last playoff spot with 2 weeks remaining in our regular season. Based on who is playing whom over the next 2 weeks the last 2 playoff spots likely won't be determined until the last week. This makes it really really difficult to drop Trout this Sunday prior to the playoffs. And if I wait till mid Sep to drop him Owner D could get him for 50 even if he didn't want to keep him, just so I can't have him. And if I wait that long and spend no FAAB I miss out an picking up anyone, plus I couldn't drop someone else like a $34 Dozier, $21 Chapman or $25 Calhoun.

Certainly a sticky situation I'm in. ;)

So, how would you now approach it?
1) stay the course and hope Owner D bids $10+ on some Sep call ups and then drop Trout mid Sep
2) If I don't make the playoffs drop Trout Sep 3. If I don't get him I'd have enough FAAB to pick up some Sep call ups and DL players who could be useful in 2018 like Shoemaker, Triggs, Nate Jones, etc. And if I didn't get Trout I might be able to drop Chapman or Calhoun and get them at a discount.
3) throw caution to the wind and drop Trout this coming Sunday and hope I don't need his stats (I'd activate Bird in hopes he was playing) and hope Owner D has turned his eyes to football.
4) any other idea that I haven't thought of


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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 21st, 2017, 9:51 pm 
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Let's talk specifics rather than generics. What September call up would you bid on? By my opinion, most of the ones you'd consider keeping are already gone. So who is left that isn't already owned for you to bid on? Honeywell? Bichette? Who's available that you would hope gets the call in September?

You're not going to like it but your best shot is try to play the season you're in. That September call up business? It applies to owner D as well as you.

_________________
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10


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 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 21st, 2017, 9:55 pm 
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Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am
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CubFan wrote:
BTW, the Ramirez owner now wishes he would have taken my counter offer.

He got greedy and overplayed his hand. Offer him Trout for Ramirez straight up and see what he says if he has all of this remorse.

_________________
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10


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 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: August 21st, 2017, 11:44 pm 
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Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 914
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
da_big_kid_94 wrote:
Let's talk specifics rather than generics. What September call up would you bid on? By my opinion, most of the ones you'd consider keeping are already gone. So who is left that isn't already owned for you to bid on? Honeywell? Bichette? Who's available that you would hope gets the call in September?

You're not going to like it but your best shot is try to play the season you're in. That September call up business? It applies to owner D as well as you.


As for rookies I'd probably bid on Honeywell and Willie Calhoun. And you are right that most of the ones I'd consider keeping are already gone. DL players I'm interested in for a buck or two include Shoemaker, Triggs, Alex Meyer, Nate Jones, Tropeano, Fowler and maybe Matt Duffy.

And I tend to agree that my best shot is try to play the season I'm in.....and that's what I've been doing. But should I not make the playoffs then I need to consider alternative options.

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3


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