Mastersball Fantasy Forum

A forum on fantasy baseball by the people who bring you Mastersball
Return to: Mastersball.
It is currently November 24th, 2017, 10:59 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 104 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 11  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: May 30th, 2017, 1:54 pm 
Offline
Major League Elite
User avatar

Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 914
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league. In-season team salary cap is $310. Am tied for last place but could make the primary playoffs if my pitching turns around.

Since there is a better chance I'll not make the first division playoffs (top 6) I was giving thought to trading for Trout.....as a keeper for next year. His salary goes to $58 for 2018 if I keep him. He's gone for $50+ the last 2 years. Here's what I was thinking. Trade for him, drop him this coming Sunday and then bid on him via FAAB the following Sunday. This is not without risk but my thinking is how many owners are going to want to use more then say $35 or $40 of their FAAB on a guy who is having surgery and will miss all of June and July? Plus he will likely be rusty for a few weeks so you're not getting prime Trout. I could also wait till later in the year when other owners will have much less FAAB left. There are at least 2 owners with enough salary space who could bid $50 to get him.

I've never done anything like this before in the over 20 years of playing roto so am also a bit leery in trying this "strategy". And if I don't do it with Trout I may still do this with Calhoun $25, Kluber $35, Dozier $34 (if he isnt' traded) or HanRam $34. But that would happen in mid Sep when owner's FAAB have been depleted. Another owner did this 2 years ago and got Springer for $13.

So, what do you guys think.....too risky/stupid or worth the gamble? I'd probably offer HanRam in trade.

And what kind of bid would you throw at Trout if it were your team?

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: May 30th, 2017, 2:21 pm 
Offline
Hall of Famer
User avatar

Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm
Posts: 6049
Sparing your league has a huge loophole that needs to be fixed diatribe, do it and bid the max you're comfortable as a keeper price. If someone bids more, so be it.

_________________
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: May 31st, 2017, 1:08 pm 
Offline
Major League Veteran

Joined: November 25th, 2016, 12:55 pm
Posts: 137
CubFan wrote:
12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league. In-season team salary cap is $310. Am tied for last place but could make the primary playoffs if my pitching turns around.

Since there is a better chance I'll not make the first division playoffs (top 6) I was giving thought to trading for Trout.....as a keeper for next year. His salary goes to $58 for 2018 if I keep him. He's gone for $50+ the last 2 years. Here's what I was thinking. Trade for him, drop him this coming Sunday and then bid on him via FAAB the following Sunday. This is not without risk but my thinking is how many owners are going to want to use more then say $35 or $40 of their FAAB on a guy who is having surgery and will miss all of June and July? Plus he will likely be rusty for a few weeks so you're not getting prime Trout. I could also wait till later in the year when other owners will have much less FAAB left. There are at least 2 owners with enough salary space who could bid $50 to get him.

I've never done anything like this before in the over 20 years of playing roto so am also a bit leery in trying this "strategy". And if I don't do it with Trout I may still do this with Calhoun $25, Kluber $35, Dozier $34 (if he isnt' traded) or HanRam $34. But that would happen in mid Sep when owner's FAAB have been depleted. Another owner did this 2 years ago and got Springer for $13.

So, what do you guys think.....too risky/stupid or worth the gamble? I'd probably offer HanRam in trade.

And what kind of bid would you throw at Trout if it were your team?


As Todd alluded to, I think your league has a very bad rule. In an auction league NOTHING should change the players auction price UNTIL he goes back into the auction pool. In all my auction leagues if Trout was $58 and then dropped and FAABed he would still be $58 both for this season and for retention purposes (assuming he has additional years on his Current contract (again acquiring him via FAAB should NOT change how many additional years he can be kept - it does NOT start over).

But if you are saying that if he is dropped and then acquired as a free agent his price for next year would be the FAAB price then I would definitely try that gambit as a team playing for next year - trade the rest of your high priced assets for cheap keepers so that you can better handle Trout's salary and still put together a competitive team.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: May 31st, 2017, 5:49 pm 
Offline
Major League Elite
User avatar

Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 914
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
Captain Hook wrote:
.......But if you are saying that if he is dropped and then acquired as a free agent his price for next year would be the FAAB price then I would definitely try that gambit as a team playing for next year - trade the rest of your high priced assets for cheap keepers so that you can better handle Trout's salary and still put together a competitive team.


Your second statement is correct. I tried several times a few years back to get this rule changed but couldn't get enough votes to change it. So, it is what it is.

One thing that i realized today is the owner who would trade Trout could conceiveably have enough room under the cap to reaquire him for around $50 and he'd also have the player I traded to him for Trout. May have to wait a week or two for more FAAB money to be spent before attempting this gambit. I was thinking I could get Trout back for a bid of $40-45.

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: June 1st, 2017, 6:04 am 
Offline
Hall of Famer
User avatar

Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am
Posts: 1518
Preferred Style: 4x4 Ultra Onlys Keeper Auctions
Is it just me or is there a flaw to this way of thinking? It may very well work, but in situations such as this, i see Trout akin to a very big trade acquisition at the deadline for someone who is playing for this year. And the attractive part is that you would have to give up no one on your roster, especially not a player of similar caliber to get him. I would imagine that there are a few teams who would take a very big shot at him for two months of productivity if it meant the championship, if all it was going to cost was FAAB units. I see a scenario where he gets FAAB'ed for more than he went for at auction and more than he would carry as a contract number for 2018 because he will be someone's go for broke acquisition for this year only. Then for 2018? Back in the pool he goes.

Under your scenario, $40-45 may be achievable. Big picture in 2017? $70 and up to the right team. Let's face it ...what is that team risking? Two months of Mike Trout can make a team a championship.

_________________
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: June 1st, 2017, 9:23 am 
Offline
Hall of Famer
User avatar

Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm
Posts: 6049
da_big_kid_94 wrote:
Is it just me or is there a flaw to this way of thinking? It may very well work, but in situations such as this, i see Trout akin to a very big trade acquisition at the deadline for someone who is playing for this year. And the attractive part is that you would have to give up no one on your roster, especially not a player of similar caliber to get him. I would imagine that there are a few teams who would take a very big shot at him for two months of productivity if it meant the championship, if all it was going to cost was FAAB units. I see a scenario where he gets FAAB'ed for more than he went for at auction and more than he would carry as a contract number for 2018 because he will be someone's go for broke acquisition for this year only. Then for 2018? Back in the pool he goes.

Under your scenario, $40-45 may be achievable. Big picture in 2017? $70 and up to the right team. Let's face it ...what is that team risking? Two months of Mike Trout can make a team a championship.


The chance of someone having enough FAAB and room under the $310 in season cap are slim since Trout's FAAB bid will be counted towards the in-season cap.

_________________
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: June 1st, 2017, 9:49 am 
Offline
Major League Elite
User avatar

Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 914
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
Todd Zola wrote:
da_big_kid_94 wrote:
Is it just me or is there a flaw to this way of thinking? It may very well work, but in situations such as this, i see Trout akin to a very big trade acquisition at the deadline for someone who is playing for this year. And the attractive part is that you would have to give up no one on your roster, especially not a player of similar caliber to get him. I would imagine that there are a few teams who would take a very big shot at him for two months of productivity if it meant the championship, if all it was going to cost was FAAB units. I see a scenario where he gets FAAB'ed for more than he went for at auction and more than he would carry as a contract number for 2018 because he will be someone's go for broke acquisition for this year only. Then for 2018? Back in the pool he goes.

Under your scenario, $40-45 may be achievable. Big picture in 2017? $70 and up to the right team. Let's face it ...what is that team risking? Two months of Mike Trout can make a team a championship.


The chance of someone having enough FAAB and room under the $310 in season cap are slim since Trout's FAAB bid will be counted towards the in-season cap.


Ref Kid's reasoning.....thought of that same thing yesterday. I could hold on to him and see what keeper(s) someone is willing to give up (only problem with that scenario is owners in our league trade infrequently, some never during the course of a season). And if i didn't trade him, by the time we get to Sep I would definitely know if my gambit could work of getting him for 40-45. Only thing in my favor of acquiring him and dropping him this week is the surprise factor and would any owner be willing to use up a huge amount of their FAAB. Three owners have 80+ left. But here's the other part of them doing it.....staying under the $310 cap. No one has ever tried doing this in the 20+ years and maybe for good reason.....it wont work the way I envision.

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario
PostPosted: June 2nd, 2017, 6:29 am 
Offline
Hall of Famer
User avatar

Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am
Posts: 1518
Preferred Style: 4x4 Ultra Onlys Keeper Auctions
Todd Zola wrote:
The chance of someone having enough FAAB and room under the $310 in season cap are slim since Trout's FAAB bid will be counted towards the in-season cap.

Maybe so ...don't know all the particulars .... but all it takes is for one of those contenders to have a 30-35 unit projected stud and current stiff cluttering up his roster and I think those chances increase exponentially.

_________________
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
"There is this incredible desire in the fantasy baseball/football/other world to create something out of nothing,
to produce insight where the simple will suffice, and that isn’t a good thing for everyone."
- Gary J blog 6/2/10


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario.....UPDATE
PostPosted: June 5th, 2017, 5:04 pm 
Offline
Major League Elite
User avatar

Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 914
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
The Trout owner countered my initial offer. He'd consider trading Trout $53 and Marwin Gonzalez $1 for my HanRam $34 and JD $21. I had planned on keeping JD next year but I keep reading more and more that he would be the first one traded by Detroit if they become sellers. Gonzalez has shown this kind of pop before but he's been used as a super UT guy.

Questions....
1) How likely is it he'd be traded....will he be too expensive to retain?
2) How likely would it be that he stays in the AL?
3) How likely is it that Gonzalez ends up being an everyday guy? He'd make a very good keeper for 2018 as well as be an asset for this year.
4) And finally, would you make this trade? If I make this trade I hope I can activate Bird and Haniger within the next 2 weeks to fill the void of HanRam and JD.

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1
2B/SS - Dozier $34, M. Gonzalez $1, Gregorius $9
OF - Trout $53, Mancini $9, Haniger $10, T. Hernandez $1
UT -
SP - Kluber $35, McHugh $3, Montgomery $5
RP - Brach $4, Treinen $1, Green $1,
Bench - Rodon $3, Nate Jones $1, Kipnis $12, Beckham $3


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Trading for Trout straw-man scenario.....UPDATE
PostPosted: June 5th, 2017, 5:14 pm 
Offline
Major League Veteran

Joined: November 25th, 2016, 12:55 pm
Posts: 137
CubFan wrote:
The Trout owner countered my initial offer. He'd consider trading Trout $53 and Marwin Gonzalez $1 for my HanRam $34 and JD $21. I had planned on keeping JD next year but I keep reading more and more that he would be the first one traded by Detroit if they become sellers. Gonzalez has shown this kind of pop before but he's been used as a super UT guy.

Questions....
1) How likely is it he'd be traded....will he be too expensive to retain?
2) How likely would it be that he stays in the AL?
3) How likely is it that Gonzalez ends up being an everyday guy? He'd make a very good keeper for 2018 as well as be an asset for this year.
4) And finally, would you make this trade? If I make this trade I hope I can activate Bird and Haniger within the next 2 weeks to fill the void of HanRam and JD.


Lots of IFs there, but I would make the trade - Marwin a very good keeper at $1 and fits in perfectly with your plan of dropping Trout to get him back at a lower price (at any realistic price for Trout teams need have have Several $1-3 players who will contribute - almost a two year plan)

I will comment later on Trout in my AL only keeper league


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 104 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 11  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr