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 Post subject: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 20th, 2017, 7:43 pm 
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Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 780
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league (1 catcher). $260 auction budget. Max of 8 keepers. Inflation typically 25-35% for at least first half auction except lower for C and Closers. Can keep players at same salary for first 2 years, thereafter can keep at 1,2,3 year increments at $5,$10, $15 respectively above initial salary. See signature for players.

My current keepers.....

C-Sanchez $4
1B/3B- Bird $1, C. Santana $14, Bregman $11
OF - Kepler $1
P - Happ $6, Chapman $21

8th keeper either Nate Jones $2 or Saladino $1.

Been offered Kyle Seager (sign for 1 yr at $18 or 2 yrs at $23 through 2018) for my Bregman $11. Is it worth the more certain numbers Seager produces vs the higher profit potential of Bregman? If so, how many years would you sign Seager for?

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12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1, Bregman $11
2B/SS -
OF - Kepler $1
UT -
SP - Happ $6
RP - Chapman $21, N. Jones $2
Bench -


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 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 20th, 2017, 8:03 pm 
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Joined: January 28th, 2009, 10:19 am
Posts: 256
Location: Hartford, CT
Preferred Style: 5x5 AL-only Auction
I prefer an $11 Bregman to an $18 Seager.

FWIW, I'd prefer the Benintendi deal than this one

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10 Team 5x5 (OBP) AL-Only; 100 FAAB; *6 Keepers
C: J.Lucroy, ; 1B: ; 2B: ; 3B: ; SS: F.Lindor; MI: T.Anderson; CI: ; OF: N.Mazara, C.Gomez, M.Kepler, , ; DH:
P: E.Diaz, K.Giles, M.Stroman, S.Manea, J.Paxton, D.Norris, , ,
Bench: , , , ,
DL:


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 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 20th, 2017, 8:54 pm 
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Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 780
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
Thanks for the feedback Kelly.

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12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1, Bregman $11
2B/SS -
OF - Kepler $1
UT -
SP - Happ $6
RP - Chapman $21, N. Jones $2
Bench -


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 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 22nd, 2017, 12:34 am 
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Joined: November 25th, 2016, 12:55 pm
Posts: 15
NO - Bregman will be good for a long time - maybe not as many HR as Kyle but better overall numbers


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 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 22nd, 2017, 3:33 pm 
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Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 780
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
Perry/all.....just read a Fangraphs piece which really trashed Bregman's batted ball profile, i.e. too many pop-ups, unsustainable LD%, weakly hit grounders. I don't have any access to his minor league batted ball profile but wonder if this is nothing more than small sample size. If so, how can one write such info without some type of disclaimer? I felt he made some good adjustments after he flailed away for the first 2 weeks.

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12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1, Bregman $11
2B/SS -
OF - Kepler $1
UT -
SP - Happ $6
RP - Chapman $21, N. Jones $2
Bench -


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 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 22nd, 2017, 4:23 pm 
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Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm
Posts: 5845
Which piece?

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Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 22nd, 2017, 6:02 pm 
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Joined: January 21st, 2010, 1:56 pm
Posts: 214
In a vacuum I might go with the higher floor rather than the higher ceiling. I would examine league factors in evaluating this trade and see if the $7 difference or the possible failure of a second-year player are greater risks to your contention.


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 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 22nd, 2017, 6:59 pm 
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Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 780
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
Todd Zola wrote:
Which piece?



Here is the link http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-hitter-contact-quality-report-a-few-nl-non-qualifiers/

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12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1, Bregman $11
2B/SS -
OF - Kepler $1
UT -
SP - Happ $6
RP - Chapman $21, N. Jones $2
Bench -


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 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 22nd, 2017, 7:22 pm 
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Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm
Posts: 5845
We're still at the point where most of the new metrics are more descriptive than predictive. Not only is 217 PA a small sample, we still don't know how stable these metrics are from year to year - that is there may not be a suitable sample (though there likely is).

I've met Tony back when he was a scout writing a prospect book. He then moved to the Seattle front office. The guy knows his stuff. This will cause me to follow Bregman closer, but not change my present outlook.

_________________
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: Bregman for Kyle Seager?
PostPosted: March 22nd, 2017, 8:16 pm 
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Joined: January 2nd, 2009, 4:34 pm
Posts: 780
Preferred Style: AL only 5x5 H2H & rotisserie keeper auctions
Todd Zola wrote:
We're still at the point where most of the new metrics are more descriptive than predictive. Not only is 217 PA a small sample, we still don't know how stable these metrics are from year to year - that is there may not be a suitable sample (though there likely is).

I've met Tony back when he was a scout writing a prospect book. He then moved to the Seattle front office. The guy knows his stuff. This will cause me to follow Bregman closer, but not change my present outlook.



No doubt it's a small sample size that's why I was surprised to see him make what appears to be a sweeping statement. If one had his minor league numbers to compare the same metrics and there were similarities then one would be more inclined to place more weight on the analysis.

And it's not helping Bregman any with him getting limited ABs since he's on the US squad for the WBC.

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Sanchez $4
1B/3B - C. Santana $14, Bird $1, Bregman $11
2B/SS -
OF - Kepler $1
UT -
SP - Happ $6
RP - Chapman $21, N. Jones $2
Bench -


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