special k wrote:
It's probably a blend of all you mention, but No. 1 would probably be the elusive "value," especially relative to league. For instance, in my AL-only league, I can protect either Paxton or Kinsler for $5. Mastersball projects both at about $10 of value. Even if you folks hadn't recommended Paxton, I would have protected him anyway because this league spends more on SP than relief P.
But also I would look at roster balance - I traded a speed keeper for a more expensive power keeper not just because power is probably more predictable, but also my best keepers collectively were stronger in AVG and SB than HR and RBI. And the player I traded for had DH eligibility in the league (20 games), and it can be hard to find a decent DH at the auction.
Then there is injury risk, youth and upside (hello, Paxton), balanced with predictability, scarcity, what other teams are likely to protect, projected draft inflation.
But above all I like a good deal and the resulting flexibility at the auction.
Now this to me is an interesting viewpoint that I'd like to delve into a little further, if I might. And what I am about to write is no slight towards the fine fellows of Mastersball. This 10 unit value - this is a projection in a vacuum, is it not? This is an "all things being equal" value as I understand it. So, now you are presented with a $10 valuation - do you do anything to that valuation in accordance with your own circumstances before determining the rest of your roster makeup ?
Let's just say you leave it alone ...and the one you choose only produces $5 worth of relative value and you see that player falling short of expectations. Do you try to compensate for the loss, is it a "Let's wait and see" stance or is the basis for that $10 projection mostly biased (and i do not mean prejudiced) toward contributions you are already strong in (i.e. Kinsler? - do you look at the $10 as a whole or do you look at the Mastersball breakdown for each of the offensive categories to see what actually comprises that $10 projection)?
This has been quite enlightening for me so far. Thank you for taking the time.