While it is not factored in directly, there are ways it can be accounted for indirectly.bjoak wrote:
Someone at Mastersball can correct me if I'm wrong, but degrees of controlling the running game are usually pretty negligible and therefore not counted in any projection systems. However, when you have a pitcher who is this good at it, it has to have a real effect on the number of runs he is allowing in a season.
Depending on the actually engine, stuff like BABIP and LOB% can be a result of the projection or in fact DRIVE the projection.
If they DRIVE the projection, you can account for the pitcher's acumen in certain areas.
Controlling the running game will impact LOB%. Intuitively, a pitcher that prevents steals, gets more outs from pickoffs and caught stealing, etc. will have a better than normal LOB%. Most systems will regress LOB% to league norm. Perhaps you can regress LOB% less for someone like Braden to reflect this skill. Or maybe the fact he is starting from a point "better" than most everyone else takes care of it unto itself.
The guy I was looking at along these lines this spring was Buehrle. I'll take Brian's word for it with respect to Braden and the running game, but Buehrle has to be a close second. And the manner he fields his position should also be considered as well. This could be why he often outpitches his xERA, his fielding prowess. Here. we could temper our regression of BABIP tp accommodate the Gold-Glover on the mound.
If my ever-dampening memory serves me, a few years back at a First Pitch Forum, bjoak asked during an open Q&A how much we projection-folk account for defense. At the time, both Ron and I shrugged and said not much. The reason being there was not enough solid data to include in a globally designed system, like we need to do to produce commercial projections.
Well, it is borderline amazing the advances that have been made in the past few years with respect to the gathering of data that can be used in this regard, and I suspect it won't be much longer (if not already) that some of these factors are indeed a part of the engine.