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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 16th, 2010, 2:55 pm 
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bjoak wrote:

Someone at Mastersball can correct me if I'm wrong, but degrees of controlling the running game are usually pretty negligible and therefore not counted in any projection systems. However, when you have a pitcher who is this good at it, it has to have a real effect on the number of runs he is allowing in a season.


While it is not factored in directly, there are ways it can be accounted for indirectly.

Depending on the actually engine, stuff like BABIP and LOB% can be a result of the projection or in fact DRIVE the projection.

If they DRIVE the projection, you can account for the pitcher's acumen in certain areas.

Controlling the running game will impact LOB%. Intuitively, a pitcher that prevents steals, gets more outs from pickoffs and caught stealing, etc. will have a better than normal LOB%. Most systems will regress LOB% to league norm. Perhaps you can regress LOB% less for someone like Braden to reflect this skill. Or maybe the fact he is starting from a point "better" than most everyone else takes care of it unto itself.

The guy I was looking at along these lines this spring was Buehrle. I'll take Brian's word for it with respect to Braden and the running game, but Buehrle has to be a close second. And the manner he fields his position should also be considered as well. This could be why he often outpitches his xERA, his fielding prowess. Here. we could temper our regression of BABIP tp accommodate the Gold-Glover on the mound.

If my ever-dampening memory serves me, a few years back at a First Pitch Forum, bjoak asked during an open Q&A how much we projection-folk account for defense. At the time, both Ron and I shrugged and said not much. The reason being there was not enough solid data to include in a globally designed system, like we need to do to produce commercial projections.

Well, it is borderline amazing the advances that have been made in the past few years with respect to the gathering of data that can be used in this regard, and I suspect it won't be much longer (if not already) that some of these factors are indeed a part of the engine.

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Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 16th, 2010, 5:08 pm 
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I used to do this when I made my own projections from scratch - no time these days, though. It was pretty crude, but it was basically a pitcher's historical K, BB, and HR rates with a projections for the team's BABIP, and then a multiplier for how far off the historical theoretical ERAs a pitcher's actual ERAs were. That covers things like pickoff ability and fielding into an umbrella multiplier. I can't remember many names as this was about 5 or 6 years ago, but Brandon Webb and other extreme groundball pitchers consistently and significantly outperformed their theoretical ERAs, as I called them. For guys that are way out of the norm like that, including knuckleballers, they should be looked at on a case-by-case basis. It's still hard to know how much to regress the base stats though because although they're different than normal players, they presumably still have similar variance form year to year. So anyway... I'm gonna have to keep my eye on this Braden fellow.


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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 16th, 2010, 6:15 pm 
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Quote:
way out of the norm like that, including knuckleballers


That reminds me, Braden is currently the only major league pitcher, as far as I know, that has a screwball as one of his offerings. I don't think he throws it enough to be an important part of the discussion, but it's an interesting factoid. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 16th, 2010, 6:48 pm 
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Quote:
If my ever-dampening memory serves me, a few years back at a First Pitch Forum, bjoak asked during an open Q&A how much we projection-folk account for defense. At the time, both Ron and I shrugged and said not much. The reason being there was not enough solid data to include in a globally designed system, like we need to do to produce commercial projections.


Todd, I laughed out loud when I read this because it occurred to me that we never met back then. So when you met me face-to-face years later you must have been retroactively thinking, This is the guy who gave Shandler crap about defense that time. I am such a trouble-maker. :D

What appalled me that day was that Shandler said something very similar to, "Defense has no effect on fantasy." In retrospect, I'll give him the benefit of a doubt and say that he probably meant "Defense isn't a category in fantasy," but at the time it sounded quite naive to me and was in opposition to a lot of work I had done. Later, I published about defense and its effect on ERA here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8894

Recently, I have lightened up about defense because I have found that it is so volatile and difficult to project. For example, the Mariners look spectacular on defense, but if Franklin Gutierrez has an off year or if he gets injured and is replaced by a sub-par defender, the defensive profile of the whole team can radically change. So it's not just projecting one player correctly but a whole team and that is tough to do, especially with playing time. It is also so volatile that even if you knew how a team defense would turn out, you still don't know if it will affect your pitcher that way. You could have an average team defense and then two pitchers with the same handedness and GB/FB ratio will still end up with completely different defensive efficiency ratios for the year--maybe one that is excellent and one that is very poor.

Now, I tend to use the caveman approach. Project without defense and then try to choose pitchers for whom I can say something like "Seattle-Good," or for that matter--and to get back on topic--"Braden-Oakland-Good" as defense is another area in which he just might beat that projection.

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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 17th, 2010, 1:17 am 
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i was in last place in Tout through the first month of the season last year. I am not suggesting you should be happy with a slow start, but, well, two weeks does not a season make...

breathe everyone. teix started off for crap last year, too.


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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 17th, 2010, 7:40 am 
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I know that I shouldn't complain (as of today, I'm in 1st), but:

Hunter Pence- sucking like the rest of the Astros. This is an important year for him, as many (like me) expect him to take the next step.

Drew Stubbs- Dude, .076 to start?? Dont give Dusty a reason to play Dickerson!!

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Nick Passarelli
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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 17th, 2010, 8:50 am 
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I had Braden last year in a league. I trust Braden has ditched the neoprene ankle support that caused all the problems that ended his season. That injury was quite unfortunate. He was in the midst of a nice season.

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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 17th, 2010, 9:23 am 
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Got the Tex deal done, had to throw in J Johnson to make him happy. I got Tex and Braden for Vazquez, Butler and JJ. League is AL Only. Thanks for the info guys I acquired, hard to give up on Vazquez but have Peavy, Weaver and Danks so good depth.

Tex is 3-36 now at .083, the weird thing is he got all 3 hits in ONE game!! So one game, 3 for 4 the other nine Oh for 32. :shock:

Need A Hill to man up and get back in the lineup as well as VMart to at least hit his weight. Three of my top 4 draft picks are currently garbage and I'm not in last place, watch out, could have a nice run upcoming. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 17th, 2010, 10:33 am 
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bjoak wrote:

Todd, I laughed out loud when I read this because it occurred to me that we never met back then.


Hopefully you haven't been losing sleep over this. As you might imagine, Mr. Turbes tracked me down and we knocked back a couple cold ones in the hotel lobby.

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Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: Player's who are killing me
PostPosted: April 17th, 2010, 10:50 pm 
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Joined: February 20th, 2010, 7:07 pm
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Maine and Francisco are obviously my main culprits. i didn't want to start maine this week, but didn't want francisco in either. When it rains, it pours, since Fuentes went on the DL right after the deadline and rodney gets 3 saves and flawless innings. Eventually, one of the closers actually in my starting lineup has to get a save.

I have made every wrong move over the 1st 2 weeks (mainly not getting JGuillen's 5 hr's and getting maine's beating). My decision making has to get better, right? :mrgreen:

Mark
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