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 Post subject: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 6:22 am 
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Over in the NFBC message boards a member named Scot Boras wrote the following "I was going to comment on this but this is a rookie league. Some "outside the box," "Anti-NFBC textbook" drafting is to be expected". Ryan then replied, tongue firmly planted in cheek, "I don't think there was an anti-nfbc textbook thing here - many just haven't read the textbook yet".

So what is the "NFBC Textbook" and in what ways did our draft not follow the NFBC textbook? Was it because starting pitching went so early.

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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 7:32 am 
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That's the beauty of the NFBC. There is no text book, but some people think there is. And the very best part is some people believe success will come from using the text book of the successful players. The most successful players design their own text book based on their strength and weaknesses and it works best FOR THEM. One of the worst things you can do is implement only "part" of a strategy. One of the more "famous" textbook chapters is drafting 75HR and 75SB your first three rounds. Shawn is very successful so many have adopted that strategy. That's fine. But what should they now do the next 27 rounds?

It is okay, if not extremely advisable to be guided by the success and failures of others. But ultimately it is YOUR TEAM, draft it YOUR WAY.

But yes, this league had pitchers fly of the board. It took a little longer for the dike to be broken, but once it did the pitching flowed.

This is why I say DRAFT THE PITCHER NOT THE ROUND, because a different chapter of a book no longer being published is DON'T DRAFT A PITCHER UNTIL THE 8TH ROUND. Or whatever round you peg. If the ADP of the tier of guys you want is the 8th round, but they are being drafted in the 6th, the play is to take them in the 6th.

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Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 7:47 am 
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Thanks Todd.

"Draft the pitcher, not the round" had to be played in this draft. I was getting Wandy Rodrieguez as my first starter in the 8th - 9th round of Mock Drafts. Had to throw ADP out the window, at least as it pertained to starters, and adjust to how the league was drafting starters.

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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 12:11 pm 
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After doing this draft, i will now pay attention to "draft the pitcher, not the round" more closely in the future.

Being stuck in the middle at the 7th pick, I essentially let the draft unfold in front of me. And the biggest mistake I think I made is thinking that the Wandys, Gavin Floyds, Scott Bakers would fall more in line with previous ADP.... I had mentally targeted certain pitchers in about certain areas. I really felt the middle tier would provide me ample chances to get one or two of the ones I really wanted... But by allowing the SP situation to unfold in front of me, I really needed to be a bit more aggressive in taking the ones I really wanted instead of what landed in my lap..

Coming from the 7 hole, I really didnt use any of the old playbook mantra's ...The only one I was looking to accomplish was a 75/75 strategy with my first 3 picks.. But I threw it out the window when I made Greinke my 3rd rd selection in my mind....Greinke went with the pick right in front of me and I took Werth to get back close to my 75/75 original intention..

I did consider a couple gimmick strategies to win the Sat league...I wont go into details, but I decided to go for some form of a balanced roster instead...Winning a Sat league with a gimmick designed to get new NFBC participants used to the format just didnt seem like the thing to do...... After a couple more drafts, I may shadow draft a gimmick or two I was considering though...

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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 2:03 pm 
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Todd Zola wrote:
There is no text book, but some people think there is.


What is the textbook that some people think exists? 75 & 75 in the first three rounds?

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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 2:13 pm 
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Textbook would be pound hitting for 4-5 rounds, grab either a second tier starter or closer, then pound some more hitting, then get second tier closers/third tier pitchers - make sure you get enough pitching you can stream it in and out and get 2-3 closers but otherwise focus on getting your hitting because there isn't as much hitting value on the wire as pitching.

Thats something akin to textbook. By needing to go pitching early in essence some sacrificed their loaded hitting is all.


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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 2:16 pm 
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Shawn Childs, one of the most successful and definitely one of the most respected NFBC participants suggests aiming for 75 HR and 75 SB with your first 3 picks. Shawn writes a blog and for a couple of sites as well as offering his opinion freely on the NFBC boards. He's also a real good guy.

Using the site projections, adding up the HR for the first 45 players yields 1208 and 665 for homers.

This assumes no pitchers are drafted and our top-45 are "chalk".

That's 71 HR per team and 44 SB per team, on the average.

Some teams will be taking pitchers and others will be taking players whose primary contribution is batting average, so they will be leaving some of the higher counting stats players on the board.

Personally, I don't worry so much about 75/75 but I do aim for 140-150 total HR+SB, going the over with HR and the under with SB.

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Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 2:29 pm 
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As Gary suggests, we prefer to accumulate the hitting counting stats early.

My personal chapter with respect to pitching is whatever league I am in, I aim for 4 starters I am going to put in pretty much no matter what. From these 4 starters, I want a certain amount of strikeouts. In mixed, I want at least 650. In AL only and NL only, I want 500.

In mixed leagues, I want 2 closers, which leaves me 3 spots. One or two of them are starters that I play almost always at home and some on the road. One or two of them are guys I will play at home during favorable matchups. And I will always have a few high K/9 relievers to deploy when I have a week of cruddy matchups.

In only leagues, I do pretty much the same thing but with one closer and I will not hesitate to deploy the high K/9 guys quite frequently.

So with the "draft the pitcher not the round" mantra, MIX as an example, if I want to average 163 K per starter, I can afford to go down to about 140 K guys. So I want 4 from this list and you can see some towards the bottom are already iffy with respect to playing through hell or high water.

Lincecum, Tim
Vazquez, Javier
Verlander, Justin
Haren, Dan
Gallardo, Yovani
Sabathia, C.C.
Burnett, A.J.
Hernandez, Felix
Greinke, Zack
Halladay, Roy
Santana, Johan
Beckett, Josh
Peavy, Jake
Harden, Rich
Jimenez, Ubaldo
Kershaw, Clayton
Lester, Jon
Nolasco, Ricky
Rodriguez, Wandy
Billingsley, Chad
Wainwright, Adam
Hamels, Cole
Johnson, Josh
Scherzer, Max
Lee, Cliff
Cain, Matt
Dempster, Ryan
Hanson, Tommy
Shields, James
Weaver, Jered
Garza, Matt
Harang, Aaron
Anderson, Brett
Buchholz, Clay
Kazmir, Scott
Danks, John
Zambrano, Carlos
Santana, Ervin
Baker, Scott
Lackey, John
Lilly, Ted
Wolf, Randy
Floyd, Gavin
Blanton, Joe
Webb, Brandon
Jurrjens, Jair
Oswalt, Roy
Correia, Kevin

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Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 6:25 pm 
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I guess i lied earlier when I said I didnt try to follow the "NFBC text book".. It now seems after all these posts that I followed it to the letter without even knowing I did...

Here is how:

1.First 3 picks were power/speed combos that would net me approx 75/75. Might be closer to 80HR/65+SB..
( FWIW, I would have taken Greinke in the third rd, but he was nabbed right in front of me.)

2. I didnt draft a Pitcher until rd 5.

3. I didnt bite on a top closer, but bought 3 mid-lower tiered closers. Wagner, Mike gonzalez, Lidge..

4. I did however draft 4 solid pitchers for the K's and do in fact have 4 pitchers from the list Todd provided above.
J Vazquez, C Billingsley, J Danks, Ervin Magic Sanatana....

5. I drafted for accumulation category contributors early while forsaking Avg a bit...Also evidenced by the fact I drafted only 2 SP and 1 closer prior to the 13th round. Somehow I managed to get 3 closers and 4 pitchers from the high K list though..

I didnt intentionally draft it this way, but I must have had some sense of the Playbook because I had been reading a lot of NFBC specific things that Shawn Childs authored along with anything the Big Z and others had commented on in the past... SO maybe I unconsciously drafted the " NFBC playbook" roster and didnt realize it.......Strange now that I look at it...

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 Post subject: Re: "NFBC Textbook"
PostPosted: March 20th, 2010, 6:37 pm 
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My personal chapter in these leagues is 2B, SS, 3B at the top, then the OF, then load pitching. I'd just say find the positions where you like the back end guys and stay away from them early in favor of the ones where you don't.


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