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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 2:57 pm 
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bjoak wrote:

I do think you drafted guys at value or better. Except Carpenter--is he really a fourth rounder? Seems risky. Anyhow, I feel the team is imbalanced and now we can see why some of the other guys had batting average problems--you took it all. The nice thing about Pujols is that he covers you in that area and you can run out and grab a Carlos Pena or Adam Dunn. When you are first in the category, what is the difference if you have a .295 or .300? It is going to make you desperate for homers. The good news is that low average guys who can hit bombs ought to show up in faab so if you are savvy, you might be able to balance it out a little.


Thanks a lot for the feedback, Brian. With hindsight, I think I should have taken Beckett instead of Carpenter in round 4. Those were the 2 best available SPs at that spot. I agree, Carpenter is risky. One of my weakness is that I tend to underperform in BA so I was looking not to do that in this draft. It appears that I overcompensated. I'll be looking for those low avg boppers on the waiver wire while hoping Carpenter stays healthy.

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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 3:01 pm 
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August West wrote:
With hindsight, I think I should have taken Beckett instead of Carpenter in round 4. Those were the 2 best available SPs at that spot. I agree, Carpenter is risky. One of my weakness is that I tend to underperform in BA so I was looking not to do that in this draft. It appears that I overcompensated. I'll be looking for those low avg boppers on the waiver wire while hoping Carpenter stays healthy.


I thought for sure you would take Beckett on the turn. The way pitchers were being drafted, I was tempted to take Hamels in the 4th, but I was so sure you were taking Beckett, I figured Cole would make it back to me.

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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 6:27 pm 
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rotodog wrote:
bjoak wrote:
rotodog wrote:
Dont worry, I appreciate the feedback..

On the surface they are not much different and I was just throwing out some names ...I guess i was just trying to say that when you own Dunn, Cameron, kouz types, they have consistent reliable track records of being .250 hitters with reliablility and at this point expecting any random luck or positive variance is probably a losing bet... As opposed to someone like Ev Cabrera that has an 82% Ct rate, lots of speed and almost a 3/1 Gb/FB rate in his first ML season...If Rajah and Nyger Morgan can both hit over .300 with essentially the same exact skill set, why couldnt Evereth?

But I essentially agree that the BA isnt going to win the league, but it has a chance to be a little more than horrible. Doesnt it? Or am I just looking at this with rose colored glasses and because I want some of those Averages to be better than projected, assume that a few of them will? Not sure really, but i guess it will take 6 months to know the answer...


You make a compelling case for Everth, mostly in that I admittedly did not notice his groundball rate. That very rarely makes a difference if you account for infield flys separately, as I do, but I agree that it can make a difference for a speedster. As for Nyjer and Raj, I can assure you that I don't project them to hit .300 again, like, ever. But they do come out better than Everth. Part of that is the ballpark, for sure, which I wonder whether you consider. I have Kouz at .272 for this year. Anyway, I'll take a look at them when I get home and give you a more complete answer.


To be honest, I am speaking off the top of my head and checking fangraphs to support my intuitions....As where you are doing some serious saber type projecting it sounds like... I am not taking into account any BB rates, Home ballpark or IF rates....Mine is just an eyeball test ...............I just know that they have very similar skill sets, all have speed and each have between an 82%-85% overall Ct rates...And all 3 look to be GB hitters...2/1 or 3/1 ...

As far as Nyger and rajah being true .300 hitters, I dont think I will disagree at all...But when both of them did put up .300+ avgs in 2009 with the same skill set that Evereth has, it opens up the possibility that it wouldnt be a huge stretch if Evereth C did hit .285- .305. I know that expecting it to happen isn't a good idea, but it just seems that it is possible if others with similar skills have done it....

But I appreciate any analysis you might have....


Yeah, I take an average batting average and then add and subtract points to it based on a hitters component skills. The ballpark has an overall effect on BA but you have to be careful to not double-count it. For example, PETCO severely reduces home run rate, and home run rate has an effect on batting average. So if you give a player his PETCO home run rate and take off points for it, and then take off all the batting average points that his park subtracts, you took off those points for the homers twice.

Anyway, I can lecture on this stuff for days. Let's just say that Everth strikes out way more often than Rajai and plays in PETCO where players typically lose 17 points from their batting average for myriad sundry reasons, which is a lot more than Raj loses in Oaklnad.

Since you mentioned BB, you get to here my rant on it. I have tested it and retested it and BB rate has no direct effect on batting average. I guess that belief comes from how if you do a very basic study of high BB guys vs. low, the high guys will have a better batting average. But they actually get that benefit by hitting more homers. Once you account for the effect that the home runs have the average is almost the same. So any time you see a fantasy soothsayer tell you that you should put K/BB in your toolbox or some such, well, let's just say I heartily disagree with that person. Just use the K rate. Here at Mastersball, I am reasonably certain the Forum Funklord would back me up on this.

I do think there can be an indirect effect. For example, if player X swings at everything, then pitchers will throw everything outside of the zone and he will in turn strikeout more. But no direct effect.

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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 6:34 pm 
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You know, I actually have Maholm at 3.85 so while my comments on his offensive support and K's do stand--in fact, they are the very reasons I discounted his ERA--I take back my comment that he won't stick.

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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 6:48 pm 
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bjoak wrote:
You know, I actually have Maholm at 3.85 so while my comments on his offensive support and K's do stand--in fact, they are the very reasons I discounted his ERA--I take back my comment that he won't stick.


I knew what I was getting myself into when I took Maholm, Pineiro, and Lohse, in that they are not guys that rack up the K's. My thinking at the time was that they should accumulate lots of innings with league average to slightly-better-than-league-average ratios. I'm hoping that my top 4 (Hamels, Shields, Baker, Correia) rack up enough K's to keep me competitive while I can comb the wire for K's and know that I have some buffer in my ratios.

thanks again for the comments, feel free to keep em comin'.

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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 7:51 pm 
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Quote:
So any time you see a fantasy soothsayer tell you that you should put K/BB in your toolbox or some such, well, let's just say I heartily disagree with that person. Just use the K rate. Here at Mastersball, I am reasonably certain the Forum Funklord would back me up on this.


I'm not the Funklord but I do have a little something to do with the process of projecting players here. I would say this is about 75% correct.

If you're talking about the pure aspect of Batting AVG, then yes, we break it up basically in three parts - percentage of PA with contact, then percentage of contact turned into hits inside the park, percentage outside the park (it's not perfect because we typically use BABIP and not H-HR/AB-K but for this purpose close enough).

There are likely some hitters whose ability to recognize pitches is recognized both by their BB rate and by their ability to hit pitches. I will give an example. Marco Scutaro has tremendous plate discipline - he basically led baseball last year in not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He also had a monster contact rate on pitches both in and out of the zone - tops basically in baseball. Jason Varitek commented earlier in spring training that Scutaro's approach had absolutely changed in 08/09. He's been a top K/BB guy over the last many years. Now, was anyone predicting he'd break out? No...but it's clear he leverages that skill set to be a fairly productive hitter.

Last year's top 5 K/BB for hitters: Pujols, Pedroia, Mauer, Helton, ....Yadier Molina, Scutaro 6th.

My overall point is that while it's not a leading indicator per se, it tells us something. In Scutaro's case he simply doesnt have enough power to take advantage of the great pitches he sees. His LD rate isn't even anything special. So that serves as even another indicator of his ability - if you use K/BB as a sign of a batter's ability to recognize pitches, Scutaro doesn't leverage it. Pujols, Mauer, Pedroia to a lesser degree obviously do. Helton once did. Molina...more a Scutaro.

K rate is also important, because a batter's ability to do anything begins with his ability to make contact. Mark Reynolds has a lousy K rate not because he swings at awful pitches - his rate of swinging at pitches both in and out of zone are high but not outlier-worthy. He just makes less contact on pitches in and out of the zone of anyone who qualifies for the batting title. A guy like Jack Cust actually has a good eye and doesn't swing crazily, but can't make contact either. Each player is different. My bigger point is that what affects one batter doesn't affect another, and we don't even know for sure how predictable each indicator is year over year anyways, but it is as inaccurate to say K/BB is worthless as it is to say it's a leading indicator.


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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 9:08 pm 
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GaryJ wrote:
Quote:
So any time you see a fantasy soothsayer tell you that you should put K/BB in your toolbox or some such, well, let's just say I heartily disagree with that person. Just use the K rate. Here at Mastersball, I am reasonably certain the Forum Funklord would back me up on this.


I'm not the Funklord but I do have a little something to do with the process of projecting players here. I would say this is about 75% correct.

If you're talking about the pure aspect of Batting AVG, then yes, we break it up basically in three parts - percentage of PA with contact, then percentage of contact turned into hits inside the park, percentage outside the park (it's not perfect because we typically use BABIP and not H-HR/AB-K but for this purpose close enough).

There are likely some hitters whose ability to recognize pitches is recognized both by their BB rate and by their ability to hit pitches. I will give an example. Marco Scutaro has tremendous plate discipline - he basically led baseball last year in not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He also had a monster contact rate on pitches both in and out of the zone - tops basically in baseball. Jason Varitek commented earlier in spring training that Scutaro's approach had absolutely changed in 08/09. He's been a top K/BB guy over the last many years. Now, was anyone predicting he'd break out? No...but it's clear he leverages that skill set to be a fairly productive hitter.

Last year's top 5 K/BB for hitters: Pujols, Pedroia, Mauer, Helton, ....Yadier Molina, Scutaro 6th.

My overall point is that while it's not a leading indicator per se, it tells us something. In Scutaro's case he simply doesnt have enough power to take advantage of the great pitches he sees. His LD rate isn't even anything special. So that serves as even another indicator of his ability - if you use K/BB as a sign of a batter's ability to recognize pitches, Scutaro doesn't leverage it. Pujols, Mauer, Pedroia to a lesser degree obviously do. Helton once did. Molina...more a Scutaro.

K rate is also important, because a batter's ability to do anything begins with his ability to make contact. Mark Reynolds has a lousy K rate not because he swings at awful pitches - his rate of swinging at pitches both in and out of zone are high but not outlier-worthy. He just makes less contact on pitches in and out of the zone of anyone who qualifies for the batting title. A guy like Jack Cust actually has a good eye and doesn't swing crazily, but can't make contact either. Each player is different. My bigger point is that what affects one batter doesn't affect another, and we don't even know for sure how predictable each indicator is year over year anyways, but it is as inaccurate to say K/BB is worthless as it is to say it's a leading indicator.


I think what you're saying is "many good hitters do this" and I don't disagree but it isn't causal--more like an effect of good hitting (for some players). So I am probably a little bitter because like all the other people out there who quote K/BB as an indicator of which direction batting average is going, I didn't know better years ago. My BA for Scooter and Yadier using their components (and not BB) over the last three years is extremely accurate and I have them both around .292 for this year so ignoring the BB corner of their skill set isn't affecting them.

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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 9:19 pm 
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I agree with you on that. I just think plate discipline for younger hitters is a good thing and can represent the opportunity for such a player to improve as a hitter. I don't think you can run a statistical analysis showing BB correlating with anything very well, certainly not the way you can for pitchers.


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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 10:05 pm 
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Preferred Style: 5x5 NFBC style
Okay guys - here's my team:

C - Russell Martin - Rd 12
C - Marson/Santana - Rd 25/29

1B - Joey Votto - Rd 2
CI - Garrett Jones - Rd 14
3B - Arod - Rd 1

2B - Ben Zobrist - Rd 4
MI - Luis Valbuena - Rd 20
SS - Stephen Drew - Rd 8

OF - Andrew McCutchen - Rd 5
OF - Adam Jones - Rd 7
OF - Julio Borbon - Rd 9
OF - Colby Rasmus - Rd 17
OF - Cameron Maybin - Rd 21

UT - Conor Jackson - Rd 18

Bn - Sean Rodriguez, Xavier Nady

SP - Felix Hernandez - Rd 3
SP - Matt Cain - Rd 6
SP - Brandon Webb - Rd 11
SP - Tim Hudson - Rd 15
SP - Stephen Strasburg - Rd 16
SP - Brian Matusz - Rd 19
SP - Chris Young - Rd 24
RP - C Qualls - Rd 10
RP - O Dotel - Rd 13

Bn -Bedard, Blackburn, Howell, Jepsen

The Reyes injury and the early Gonzalez pick really changed the early third round for me. I almost went Braun at #3 thinking that I could have gotten a 3B and a 1B at 2 and 3. I would have been wrong. I was hoping for Phillips in Round 2 - but was happy to roster Joey Votto at that point.

My infield is going to have to deliver maximum punch for this lineup. I am going to score a ton of runs and maybe lead the league in SB's. Power has upside potential - but RBI's could be a real problem for this team. I am also concerned about my BA with sooooo many young hitters. In retrospect I wished I'd have grabbed Soriano instead of Rasmus, just because I already had so much youth in my lineup. With this offense I will either be a mad genius or just be mad by seasons end.

On the pitching side - I really like my Top 4 guys - after that I missed out on soo many of my targets that I ended up throwing Bedard and Chris Young at the wall to see if one of them will stick.
I'm pretty confident in my ability to identify starters via FAAB - so I will be on the lookout here. 16th Round seemed right for Strasburg - and I think he'll deliver the K's if not the W's. I'm happy getting Qualls and Dotel so late - Howell and Jepsen are setup guys I like. Nady is a veteran bat with a shot at regular ab's - but he'll be the first to go in search of more consistent offense. I decided to take a chance that Rodriguez wins the job in TB and allows me to play Zobrist in the OF if I need to.

I definitely took on too much youth - they'll be fun but frustrating I'm sure - I'll have to do some creative managing.

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 Post subject: Re: Post your teams
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 10:52 pm 
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deansdaddy wrote:
Okay guys - here's my team:

C - Russell Martin - Rd 12
C - Marson/Santana - Rd 25/29

1B - Joey Votto - Rd 2
CI - Garrett Jones - Rd 14
3B - Arod - Rd 1

2B - Ben Zobrist - Rd 4
MI - Luis Valbuena - Rd 20
SS - Stephen Drew - Rd 8

OF - Andrew McCutchen - Rd 5
OF - Adam Jones - Rd 7
OF - Julio Borbon - Rd 9
OF - Colby Rasmus - Rd 17
OF - Cameron Maybin - Rd 21

UT - Conor Jackson - Rd 18

Bn - Sean Rodriguez, Xavier Nady

SP - Felix Hernandez - Rd 3
SP - Matt Cain - Rd 6
SP - Brandon Webb - Rd 11
SP - Tim Hudson - Rd 15
SP - Stephen Strasburg - Rd 16
SP - Brian Matusz - Rd 19
SP - Chris Young - Rd 24
RP - C Qualls - Rd 10
RP - O Dotel - Rd 13

Bn -Bedard, Blackburn, Howell, Jepsen

The Reyes injury and the early Gonzalez pick really changed the early third round for me. I almost went Braun at #3 thinking that I could have gotten a 3B and a 1B at 2 and 3. I would have been wrong. I was hoping for Phillips in Round 2 - but was happy to roster Joey Votto at that point.

My infield is going to have to deliver maximum punch for this lineup. I am going to score a ton of runs and maybe lead the league in SB's. Power has upside potential - but RBI's could be a real problem for this team. I am also concerned about my BA with sooooo many young hitters. In retrospect I wished I'd have grabbed Soriano instead of Rasmus, just because I already had so much youth in my lineup. With this offense I will either be a mad genius or just be mad by seasons end.

On the pitching side - I really like my Top 4 guys - after that I missed out on soo many of my targets that I ended up throwing Bedard and Chris Young at the wall to see if one of them will stick.
I'm pretty confident in my ability to identify starters via FAAB - so I will be on the lookout here. 16th Round seemed right for Strasburg - and I think he'll deliver the K's if not the W's. I'm happy getting Qualls and Dotel so late - Howell and Jepsen are setup guys I like. Nady is a veteran bat with a shot at regular ab's - but he'll be the first to go in search of more consistent offense. I decided to take a chance that Rodriguez wins the job in TB and allows me to play Zobrist in the OF if I need to.

I definitely took on too much youth - they'll be fun but frustrating I'm sue - I'll have to do some creative managing.


It's a good team, Ryan, and your comments demonstrate you have a good handle on it. I don't think you have to be worried about every young guy. While, I personally don't think McCutchen will earn his pick, I also think there is little chance he won't be productive. Borbon is another guy who I just don't see failing and he'll be productive all year. Out of Rasmus and Maybin, I have a hunch one will move forward and one will move back, and a backward move will mean Trip-A. So be ready for that possible outcome. If I had to guess, Maybin will move back and there are already rumblings that he might start the year at Triple-A, though it may seem unlikely. There's just not a ton of room for error for him. Valbuena, I don't get, but he wouldn't be the first (near) rookie I was wrong on.

The staff looks good. I don't like Cain, but I am wrong about him every year so I doubt this one will be any different. I liked Webb a few weeks ago but now he makes me very nervous. I consulted Will Carroll who told me he is a huge roll of the dice at this point so I left him out of my plans. The high reward was probably a good strategy at the end. I liked Qualls and Martin a lot so it was good that you reached for them. Martin, you take away a half month of at bats and he is still a better catching option. I thought he'd fall later so I could wait but you were on top of it. Blackburn is a good back end guy who will probably pitch for you all year.

Strasberg, I'd temper expectations on the strikeouts. By time you took him, I was thinking about it so it's not a bad pick and it's certainly not that I don't like his fastball! :shock: I am relatively certain he'll start in the minors, though, so first you have to weigh who you replace him with for a couple months. When he does come up, I just think they'll be very careful with his pitch counts, maybe to an extent we've never really seen before. 80-pitch outings maybe. I could be wrong, it is just a feeling I get from things I hear about how they plan to handle him.

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