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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 12:23 am 
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Preferred Style: 5x5 NFBC style
viper wrote:
The hardest part about running projected standings is figuring out who each team would actually start. My assumptions were your would start your top two catcher - I did bench Posey however as his MB stat line is weak, however if he comes up early it will change things.

I also had to make some guesses on pitchers. I admit I did slightly adjust my team because I could see I could sacrfice a little average to increase my power. Not sure how much it actually helped however.

I loaded the MB projections currently on the platinum site -I downloaded them today. Here is what I ran

101.0 56.5-44.5 #2 ARC
93.0 52.0-41.0 #14 viper
92.0 57.5-34.5 #7 rotodog
89.0 42.0-47.0 #3 deansdaddy
88.0 30.0-58.0 #9 Andrew [no posts I saw on either thread yet]
87.0 46.0-41.0 #4 Nickpass
87.0 46.0-41.0 #1 AugWest
86.5 25.0-61.5 #15 MarkJanes
86.5 39.5-47.0 #5 UKBlue
76.0 38.0-38.0 #11 mbender
75.0 39.0-36.0 #8 sergio
74.0 34.5-39.5 #12 JimF
69.0 34.0-35.0 #6 Boomer
50.0 34.0-16.0 #10 Ken [no posts I saw on either thread]
46.0 26.0-20.0 #13 bjoak

Before anyone pounds their chest or considers becoming a Tibetan Monk, I've done these in other NFBC leagues and one time even saw the team in 15th end up laughing all the way to the bank. I was a projected first last season and ended up 14th when the season ended - and I played through the end.

What we have now are high hopes.


:lol: I think this is the first time EVER - that I've finally drafted a team that MB/START likes better than HQ/Rotolab - see Todd it's sinking in.

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 7:25 am 
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UK BlueCat wrote:
Well, I used Rotolab to track the draft and it uses HQ projections so I'll just post the quick and dirty version of the standings based on that. TIFWIW because I always come out near the top on my drafts but it never seems to quite work out that way in the final standings. I've learned to not put too much stock in it and use it more of a guide to make sure I'm not totally bombing a draft.

Player Hitting Pitching Total
Todd 60.5 56 116.5
Tom 59 54 113
Mark J 29 64 93
Nick 47 38.5 85.5
Mike 37.5 46 83.5
James 47.5 31 78.5
Ryan 33 42.5 75.5
Brian 40.5 35 75.5
Troy 37.5 35.5 73
Andrew 27 45 72
Joe 30 41.5 71.5
Nate 50 20.5 70.5
Mark B 35 32 67
David 36.5 29.5 66
Ken 30 29 59


viper wrote:
101.0 56.5-44.5 #2 ARC
93.0 52.0-41.0 #14 viper
92.0 57.5-34.5 #7 rotodog
89.0 42.0-47.0 #3 deansdaddy
88.0 30.0-58.0 #9 Andrew [no posts I saw on either thread yet]
87.0 46.0-41.0 #4 Nickpass
87.0 46.0-41.0 #1 AugWest
86.5 25.0-61.5 #15 MarkJanes
86.5 39.5-47.0 #5 UKBlue
76.0 38.0-38.0 #11 mbender
75.0 39.0-36.0 #8 sergio
74.0 34.5-39.5 #12 JimF
69.0 34.0-35.0 #6 Boomer
50.0 34.0-16.0 #10 Ken [no posts I saw on either thread]
46.0 26.0-20.0 #13 bjoak


I use 3 sources. MB, BBHQ and my own instincts/observations. I find it shocking that MB and BBHQ have my team valued so differently when my numbers are a blend of the 2. My cheat sheet was pure MB, but when its time to actually draft the guy, I factor what I've read on HQ and my own gut. I also realize that Viper and others have mentioned these types of disparities before. I've just never seen it happen to a team of mine. Every mock I've done, MB and HQ have been within 3 spots of each other and usually within 10 points. Its a real eye-opener to have MB with me in 1st and HQ telling me I suck. As with most things, I'm sure the truth lies in between.

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 7:58 am 
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ARC, differences are usually with the pitching and that is the case here.

I see BBHQ VERY optimistic in their pitching numbers. In the mock draft, almost every team ended with an ERA under 4.00. That is totally impossible.

The other thing is that are about a 10-20 players that the two site have major differences in expectations. They are spread throughout the draft but they are there.

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 9:36 am 
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viper wrote:
The other thing is that are about a 10-20 players that the two site have major differences in expectations. They are spread throughout the draft but they are there.


Is Howie Kendrick one of them? HQ is very bullish on him.

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 9:52 am 
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2nd to last to third from the top......I feel better now.. But it just goes to show the disparity..

One major thing I did notice is the top 4 teams as far as MB start goes.

This is Kind of what has been addressed recently about this exercise. It is fun for fodder....To me, it is a self fulfilling prophecy. If you use one set of projections/rankings/dollar values, then you will have appear to have a great team when you run standings using the same projections and values.

Take those same teams and run them in rotolab using HQ numbers and the guys using HQ numbers and HQ rankings will be a top team.......

So the disparity in both sets doesnt surprise me....

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 10:47 am 
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I was using a blend of stuff - I had a rotolab based Cheatsheet, a MB based cheatsheet, a list based on ADP loaded into MDC and then my own personal preferences.

Todd was right in saying that when you use the draft program you SHOULD finish at the top of the rankings post draft, if you are consistently choosing players at or near the top of the chart. There is just one problem here, and for me that comes when the program "values" a player highly, but ADP suggests you can get him later in the draft. Everyone has at least one of these players and some many more. I know my big one was Julio Borbon and to a lesser extent Andrew McCutchen.

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 11:24 am 
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viper wrote:
Here is a thought. What if Nathan throws well and it happens he can actually pitch this year. Did you realize that NO ONE took him, even in round 30.

Before the season even starts, we could see our highest FAAB bid. They do run an FAAB on Sunday April 4. I'm think that is the first one.


I thought about Nathan in RD 30 - and I also thought about John Smoltz. What if the Twins go out and take a shot on Smoltz to close out games? I can actually see that happening - and I wish now I had chosen him instead of Nady as a lottery ticket.

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 12:00 pm 
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Joined: February 20th, 2010, 7:07 pm
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Same Here. I should have taken Nathan instead of Guerrier. Rauch won't lose the job week 1 and I probably could get Guerrier for cheap in FAAB. It's a good risk for rd 29 & 30 but Nathan isn't going to be Nathan with a tear in his arm, even if he is able to battle through the pain for however long he can last.

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 12:04 pm 
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rotodog wrote:
2nd to last to third from the top......I feel better now.. But it just goes to show the disparity..

One major thing I did notice is the top 4 teams as far as MB start goes.

This is Kind of what has been addressed recently about this exercise. It is fun for fodder....To me, it is a self fulfilling prophecy. If you use one set of projections/rankings/dollar values, then you will have appear to have a great team when you run standings using the same projections and values.

Take those same teams and run them in rotolab using HQ numbers and the guys using HQ numbers and HQ rankings will be a top team.......

So the disparity in both sets doesnt surprise me....


Very true. I have found that the projections here are as good as any. But moreso, I can easily see how they are done. Plus you have CVRC to put in your own weighting. What you have to do is buy into the MB replacement player concept. It took me a while but my own home grown method [a variation of SGP] was yielding essentially the same results so I figured why should I spend all that time when CVRC give me the same general numbers. I will plug the BBHQ projections into CVRC and look for differences but they don't really exist except where ABs are a lot different. That is what I really look at when comparing the two sets of projections. IP is the pitchers equivalent. I do feel that BBHQ forces in a level of position scarcity into their dollar values. At least five years ago, I determeined that in NFBC sized league, there really isn't true position scarcity but it would really be considered as pockets where certain positions were very scare. In the overall scheme of things, there were enough players to fill all positions. In an ESPN sized league there is some scarcity but the way to do those league is with four positions - CA, MI, CO, OF/UT. That resolves scarcity.

The openness of how they calculate value is the single biggest selling point here. Of course, having an huge staff of quality people who answer questions all the time is another big selling point.

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 Post subject: Re: Post Draft Thoughts and Reactions
PostPosted: March 16th, 2010, 4:04 pm 
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There is just one problem here, and for me that comes when the program "values" a player highly, but ADP suggests you can get him later in the draft.


I totally understand and agree with what you're saying here Ryan, but at what point does ADP kinda take a back seat to roster needs? For example, the reasons I took Laroche in round 8 were two fold. One, I still needed a first baseman and two, according to HQ projections, Laroche was the highest valued 1b left. Now I could have possibly waited another round or 2 according to ADP, but I didn't want to risk someone else grabbing him before me. If I missed out on him then I would've had to roster someone like Chris Davis who could be good, but could also be disastrous. To me, the reliability of Laroche vs. what was left was worth bucking the ADP a little. This exact thing happened to me with Borbon. I waited on him thinking I could get him next round and you snatched him up before that.

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