Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

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alleyoops
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Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#1 Post by alleyoops » January 1st, 2015, 7:28 pm

Good to see the DFS football articles. I've enjoyed this DFS fb season, with a small profit, and continue to learn. It's fun - for those who haven't yet, give it a try.

My lineups so far, for wildcard weekend (subject to change, of course). I play only 50/50 cash games.

FanDuel Sat/Sun - Roethlisberger, Hill, Bell, ABrown, SSmith, MBryant, Olsen, Nugent, CAR

FanDuel Sat only - Roethlisberger, Forsett, Stewart, ABrown, SSmith, MBryant, Olsen, Tucker, CAR

DraftKings - Roethlisberger, Hill, Bell, ABrown, DBryant, Moncrief, Ebron, JHarris, CAR

DraftDay - Roethlisberger, Romo, Hill, JHarris, ABrown, DBryant, Daniels, Sanu, DWilliams, CAR

FantasyFeud - Roethlisberger, Romo, Hill, Bell, ABrown, DBryant, Miller, DAL, Daniels, Campanaro

StatClash - Roethlisberger, Hill, Bell, ABrown, SSmith, Beasley, Miller, Bailey, CAR

Comments, suggestions, your lineups?

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Todd Zola
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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#2 Post by Todd Zola » January 1st, 2015, 9:08 pm

Lawr's going to be writing a bit on DFS. Looks like my DFS stuff will be on www.FantasyAlarm.com and possibly another major site but I'll sneak what I can here.

I'll be doing my weekend DFS tomorrow -- I'll share here. My go-to is Fantasy Aces, I'll also play FanDuel, Draft Kings and FantasyDraft. I may do some DraftDay.
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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#3 Post by Todd Zola » January 1st, 2015, 9:30 pm

As for the lineups, that's too much exposure to Big Ben for my liking - key to cash games is diversifying. I'm on Luck this weekend so I'll have decent exposure to him as well as a couple others.

I'd have a quick pivot off of Bell ready to go -- I actually wouldn't even take the chance.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#4 Post by alleyoops » January 1st, 2015, 10:40 pm

Sorry, should have typed JBell, for Joique. I doubt that LBell plays, and if he does, he probably won't be himself. I'll probably stick Harris in some lineups if I hear for sure LBell is out.

I'm not big on diversification, as you can tell from my lineups. I figure I'm diversified over my DFS lifetime, even if I use only one lineup on all sites each week. If Ben's the best QB value this weekend, as I believe he is, I want him everywhere. I could be wrong, of course. But he was excellent vs the Ravens earlier, and he may be forced to throw a lot if LBell is out or not himself. Of course, he'll miss LBell in the passing game some. The weather might not be ideal, but it shouldn't be awful for passing.

Luck's been off in recent weeks, at least partially because Hilton's been dinged/out. Nice not to have to worry about weather, and they killed Cin earlier. He's probably the safest play at QB, but the price is higher than Big Ben by quite a bit, which makes Ben a much better value, IMO. If you play Luck instead, you'll have to make up that difference in value elsewhere, and cheap value plays aren't plentiful this weekend.

Any way to get this topic to show on the home page, so we might get some other input?

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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#5 Post by Todd Zola » January 1st, 2015, 11:15 pm

It's now showing on the home page.

Vegas has the o/u for Indy the highest -- they're a good guide.

I should have realized it was J Bell.

As for Big Ben and value -- it's one thing to expect a good game but in cash games, value for QB is moot. I want the QB I feel will score the most points and I'll work in the rest. Tourneys is different but in cash, I want the QB I project to score the most.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#6 Post by alleyoops » January 2nd, 2015, 12:50 am

Dallas has higher projected points than Indy, so should you go with Romo? Vegas projects DAL 27.5, IND 26.25, PIT 24.25, CIN 22.75. Obviously, how the points will be scored is also an important factor. With LBell likely out, and BAL's run defense stout, I expect most of PIT's points to be scored through the air. The same holds for Luck, of course, although I think they're a little more likely to get a rushing TD. I don't see the 1.5 projected pts difference as worth the salary difference. But as Boomer says, that's why they play the game.

It will be interesting to look at where our lineups differ, in addition to QB. Theoretically, I should have an edge elsewhere, since I have more leftover salary to spend after QB.

I hope we're both right!

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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#7 Post by Todd Zola » January 2nd, 2015, 12:59 am

More money doesn't necessarily equate to an edge, especially since the objective of a cash game is to finish in the top half. You sacrifice upside/points potential for the likelihood of a very good score.

For me, Romo is one hard hit away from the sidelines then there's that Murray guy.

The lines are still changing, it's all so close at the top that they're all about the same.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#8 Post by Todd Zola » January 2nd, 2015, 1:21 am

Real quick FanDuel 50/50s -- I haven't really done my research so I may tweak

Andrew Luck
Jeremy Hill
Jonathan Stewart
Antonio Brown
Steve Smith
Reggie Wayne
Coby Fleener
Graham Gano
Dallas Cowboys

Ben Roethlisberger
Jonathan Stewart
Joique Bell
Antonio Brown
Dez Bryant
Reggie Wayne
Owen Daniels
Mike Nugent
Dallas Cowboys
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#9 Post by Todd Zola » January 2nd, 2015, 10:03 pm

With AJ Green out I'm considering a TE pivot to Gresham and maybe upgrade D a little.

I like the 4:30 ET lock -- can spend the afternoon doing lineups and not have to start the night before.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Daily Fantasy Sports (Football) - Wildcard Weekend

#10 Post by alleyoops » January 2nd, 2015, 10:25 pm

I swapped Sanu into a few of the lineups, downgrading the Def from CAR to do it. Didn't make any changes due to LBell being out. Getting a little more concerned about the weather in PIT, but staying with Ben/Brown.

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