Dominic Brown Proj

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KFab

Dominic Brown Proj

#1 Post by KFab »

New poster here. Just looking thru the projections and CVRC values and Brown is projected to drive in 92 RBI over 376 AB. He has the highest AB/RBI ratio in all the NL while having a SLG% below .450. Granted, PHI has a potent lineup but those numbers seem ambitious. Am I missing something?

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Todd Zola
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Re: Dominic Brown Proj

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

No, I am, sorry.

I thought I flagged all of these issues, I obviously missed one.

It has to do with the fact Brown's projection relies on MLE translations.

As we outline, the R and RBI calculation is a 2-step process.

First, we derive an expected RBI which is based on the type and number of hits he gets.

Second, we apply an adjustment factor based on his history which is supposed to account for place in the batting order, strength of lineup, etc. Brown's adjustment factor is obviously based on his minor league numbers and is not transferable to the Majors, so I generally use a default adjustment of 1 (which means no adjustment), but since the Phillies have a very good lineup I may make it 1.1. Using 1.1 gives him 62 RBI which is MUCH MORE reasonable.

I apologize for the error and will upload a cleaned up file within 24 hours.
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