Benoit projected to earn $16? a bit aggressive?

[whammer]

That projection jumped out at me a bit - a quality set up guy with an injury track record- If velarde healthy I don't see how he can earn that. I have him at $7 and was planning on tossing him back with the thought of getting him for 3 or 4 bucks. Am I missing something...

-W

[Todd Zola]

What you might be missing is an opportunity to throw him back, use the keeper spot on someone else then buy him back and get some profit.

But to give you the answer you want, I need to know which of the following questions you are REALLY asking...

1) I believe in the projection, but I don't believe it translates to that value

2) I think the progression is too aggressive.

3) I think 65 innings is a stretch.

Benoit is a challenge. He missed all of 2009 so we need to decide whether to include 2007 just to get more data.

Then factor in that he was OFF THE CHARTS good last season, check this out.

60 1/3rd innings -- 30 hits (4.5H/9), 75 K (11.25 K/9) and 11 BB (1.65 BB/9)

That is a SICK WHIP -- .680.

We have him at

K/9 9.66
BB/9 3.04
H/9 6.39

I can understand an argument for regressing his H/9 a bit more, but this is what the model spat out.

And yeah, 65 IP is a risk (+5 from last season). But he appears healthy after his rotator cuff surgery and pitched into the high 70s from '05 to '07.

Personally, if you think he will be under the radar, I toss him back and try to reacquire him.

In a redraft league, I am not going to pay for the projection, but he is on my short list of Al set up men to go after.

[whammer]

I like him an awful lot, ,maybe I was just hoping that when he landed as the set up guy in Det that some of the appeal would wear off. In an 11 team 4x4 AL only - would you feel comfortable keeping at $7. The thing about an auction it only takes one other guy to really like to move the price to 12.

[Todd Zola]

Then I let him, because there will always be a few $1 set up guys that earn $5 or $6. You're just looking for $5 or $6 profit -- you'll find someone for a buck or two while forcing someone else to pay $10.