March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

Ask questions or post comments concerning the CVRC, START or the Team and Player Tracker
Post Reply
Message
Author
Guest

March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#1 Post by Guest »

Hi,
The Zen Protection Engine doesn't seem to be working - my league allows $520/team and when I enter that number into the "Team $" cell to set up my league parameters, the player values don't change (ex Pujols stay at $42 instead of roughly doubling to where he would be in a $520 league). Help?

JP Kastner

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#2 Post by JP Kastner »

Not a problem. Change the value of the league to $520 and click the Calibrate button. You should see messages change just below the Calibrate button telling you that the system is working. If you click the button and nothing happens, it means that you may have security set too high. The Zen Engine uses Visual Basic to operate.

Go to Tools/Macro/Security and set it to medium. When the Zen Engine starts, a message box will appear asking you if you trust this document. Say yes and the Calibrate button should work.

If you use a Mac version of Office, the Zen Engine will not work. Microsoft does not include Visual Basic in their Office Products.

JP Kastner

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#3 Post by JP Kastner »

I should also comment that the Zen Engine is not the official Mastersball product. The CVRC is the official product that uses our value system. The ZPE was the CREATiVESPORTS equivalent of the CVRC. I posted it and updated it because it shows the direction we are going in the future from a look and feel perspective.

da_big_kid_94
Hall of Famer
Posts: 1574
Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#4 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

J.P. ...know you're busy ...can I drop you a PM about latest ZEN - don't know what I did wrong - but 1 example - AL 4x4 260 cap - entered keepers - they seem to be all properly marked on cheatsheets with # and proper values ...but overall, the largest $ value for any non keeper pitcher is Mariano at $13. Please be advised this iteration was processed with keeper processing enabled.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

JP Kastner

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#5 Post by JP Kastner »

Yes, drop me a PM.

JP Kastner

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#6 Post by JP Kastner »

I just wanted to give everyone an update on the last problem. It had to do with the keeper function. The results of keepers league seem to have strange results. The reason is that the ZPE produces a mathematically correct answer which can be very different than what you would normally pay.

Someone a couple of years ago sent me an e-mail where Mark Teixeira was listed at a price of $71 and all the other hitters were going for $1. I had that individual send his league with the keeper list. Almost all the players were keepers. What the ZPE was saying is that Teixeira was so much better than all the other hitters that you should go all in. Once Teixeira was selected, that owner put Teixeira in the keeper list with his new salary and re-calculated the values.

In the recent case, the league was a keeper league where you could protect rookies. In that can you need to calculate all the salary those players take up and reduce the total team salary because those rookies do not take a roster spot.

da_big_kid_94
Hall of Famer
Posts: 1574
Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#7 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

I did as you instructed - after removing the minors, Rivera went up to 15 units. This is not new math - where the idea was understand the concept rather to get the right answer. This tool's practical application is questionable at best - btw - in case anyone was wondering ...without keepers? Mariano Rivera 42 units.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

JP Kastner

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#8 Post by JP Kastner »

Unfortunately, this is a case where math and reality do not mix. That often happens with keeper lists. The result the ZPE produces is logical.

In this case we have a twelve-team AL only league with a large keeper list, mostly of rookies. With the keeper list processed, you have $480 allocated for 40 pitchers because of a 69% batter ratio. Zen looks at that and says, "well, I have to give a minimum of $1 for everyone". After that, it distributes the remaining $440 based upon value. When the economy is $440 for 40 players, that doesn't leave much for Rivera.

In reality, you are going to spend much more. The ratio of 69% is not correct. I changed it to 50% and Rivera jumped to $38.

da_big_kid_94
Hall of Famer
Posts: 1574
Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#9 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

JP Kastner wrote:Unfortunately, this is a case where math and reality do not mix. That often happens with keeper lists. The result the ZPE produces is logical.

In this case we have a twelve-team AL only league with a large keeper list, mostly of rookies. With the keeper list processed, you have $480 allocated for 40 pitchers because of a 69% batter ratio. Zen looks at that and says, "well, I have to give a minimum of $1 for everyone". After that, it distributes the remaining $440 based upon value. When the economy is $440 for 40 players, that doesn't leave much for Rivera.

In reality, you are going to spend much more. The ratio of 69% is not correct. I changed it to 50% and Rivera jumped to $38.
With all due respect, that's just throwing things against the wall to see if something sticks. Who would even think about using a 50/50 split between hitting and pitching? Actually it is not mostly made up of rookies - out of a total of 158 keepers, 123 have major league jobs right now. So I removed all of the minor leaguers as was suggested and that didn't help the results very much - six 3b were kept - not one of the remaining 3B broke double digits; one shortstop broke double digits; Greinke was at 8 units, Cliff Lee at 6, Peavy 5. It seems this spreadsheet assigns a value to all non keepers based on what is left in the pool, not what value they should have at your auction relative to availability. I'm looking for a tool that will help my auction. This seems to be more of an intellectual exercise in mathematics.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

Guest

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#10 Post by Guest »

DBK- once keepers are involved, the 67/33 split goes out the window. The value split of the whole pool might be 67/33 but depending on what is avilable after keepers and what is paid for them, 50/50 isn't some sort of bizarro world.

Not getting into this back and forth, as JP understands the Zen system better than I, but it's precisely a mathematical exercise. Once keepers are in play, you have to tune the splits to get everything to make sense.

da_big_kid_94
Hall of Famer
Posts: 1574
Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#11 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

GaryJ wrote:DBK- once keepers are involved, the 67/33 split goes out the window. The value split of the whole pool might be 67/33 but depending on what is avilable after keepers and what is paid for them, 50/50 isn't some sort of bizarro world.

Not getting into this back and forth, as JP understands the Zen system better than I, but it's precisely a mathematical exercise. Once keepers are in play, you have to tune the splits to get everything to make sense.
Based on that, Gary - how will one know when one "gets it right?" When the numbers "seem" like they fit to you? If that's the case, what's the purpose of this?
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#12 Post by Todd Zola »

In a keeper league there is no right. There is no algorithm or visual basis process that can account for how everyone is going to spend. This was the focus of a recent piece I did on SI.com so I won't belabor it (too much) here.

You can come up with a means to make the math work out.

You can come up with a means to make the math work out and somewhat emulate how things might go.

But as my sister would say -- big whoop.

The static inflation-corrected value generated means nothing, at least to me. If I need saves, I pay as much for Mo as I believe I can afford to leave me ample money to buy what else I need. It may reach a point of diminishing returns where my net points with Mo is less than without him, so I elect not to spend that amount. My contention is that is is impossible to objectively determine this exact point using the CVRC, the Zen Engine or HAL. People don't want to hear this, but it is the way I feel.

They want to hear how you figure out how much money is frozen on hitting and compare that to the standard 70% or so that is normally spent on hitting and then do the same with pitching. It is likely that the amount frozen on hitting is more or less than pitching, so you need to make an adjustment in the split by which you spend your remaining money to make it 70/30 at the end, which is all that Gary and JP have been saying. This makes the math work out so there is a logical basis, but for me not a practical one.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

da_big_kid_94
Hall of Famer
Posts: 1574
Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 12:09 am

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#13 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

Todd Zola wrote:so you need to make an adjustment in the split by which you spend your remaining money to make it 70/30 at the end, which is all that Gary and JP have been saying. This makes the math work out so there is a logical basis, but for me not a practical one.
And my point is how do you know the "adjustments" you are making are correct? Because the amounts now seem to coincide with what you think they should be? There's no guideline as to what the splits are or how they should be adjusted ...so you just fly bind? JP changed it to 50. Fine. Why? Because it gave better results? The answers should not be driving the parameters. Thank you all for your responses ...I'll pass on using this tool.
These are my views based on my own opinions and observations - your mileage may vary.
"KNOW THY LEAGUE" - the Forum Funklord - 4/13/2009
Fantasy is managing stats ... roto is managing teams

JP Kastner

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#14 Post by JP Kastner »

In theory, you'll need to do some simple math. If you know your final ratio is usually 69% and that you have committed $991 to hitters and $619 to pitchers (a 62/38 ratio) then the remaining salary should be $1162 for hitters and $348 for pitchers (a 77/23 ratio for even more aggressive for hitters.) Using that ratio even further reduces Rivera's value because you need to spend at least $1 on a player.

The reality is that your league probably doesn't use a 69% ratio if Papelbon goes for $41 and Fuentes goes for $37 like they do on your sheet.

No system is going to do a good job when there is high inflation. Like Todd said, you just have to know what it is going to take to get someone and have that available to spend.

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8261
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: March 26th version of Zen Projection Engine not working?

#15 Post by Todd Zola »

da_big_kid_94 wrote: And my point is how do you know the "adjustments" you are making are correct?
And my point is there is no such thing as correct.
da_big_kid_94 wrote: Because the amounts now seem to coincide with what you think they should be? There's no guideline as to what the splits are or how they should be adjusted ...so you just fly bind? JP changed it to 50. Fine. Why? Because it gave better results? The answers should not be driving the parameters. Thank you all for your responses ...I'll pass on using this tool.
With the caveat that I believe there is no such thing as correct, therefore there are no correct answers to correctly drive the parameters, here is an example of a mathematical treatment of a keeper scenario.

12 team keeper league with a $260 budget that routinely ends up at 70/30 post auction incorporating the prices of the keepers into the final split.

OVERVIEW

12 x 260 x .7 = $2184 for hitting
12 x 260 x .3 = $936 for pitching

KEEPERS

HITTERS (6 catchers, 79 non-catchers) --- $1360 worth of talent being frozen for $1105
PITCHERS (35) -- $490 worth of talent being frozen for $245
OVERALL --- $1770 worth of talent being frozen for $1270

INFLATION RATES

HITTERS -- 31%
PITCHERS -- 55%
OVERALL -- 39%

I am not completely familiar with the Zen Engine, but the manner to handle this on the CVRC is to

1. blank out the keepers
2. adjust team budget to account for keepers
3. Adjust total number of players drafted to know where to set replacement
4. Adjust the split so at the end, the total of the keepers and the inflation adjusted prices show a 70/30 split

MATH FOR #2

($3120-$1270)/12 = $154.17 left per team to spend on the average

MATH FOR #3

Need to value...

18 catchers
65 non catchers
73 pitchers

MATH FOR #4

TOTAL LEFT TO SPEND

$3120 - $1105 - $245 = $1770

HITTING

$2184 - $1105 = $1079

1079/1770 = .61

PITCHING

(should just do 1-.61, but here is the work)

$936 - $245 = $691

691/1770 = .39
___________

So the adjustment is not arbitrary, in this example, it is 61:39
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Post Reply