Using CVRC to Calculate Auction Inflation Values

Ask questions or post comments concerning the CVRC, START or the Team and Player Tracker
Post Reply
Message
Author
gmatles
Major League Regular
Posts: 66
Joined: February 3rd, 2010, 7:45 pm

Using CVRC to Calculate Auction Inflation Values

#1 Post by gmatles »

Todd,

I'm in a 10-team, NL-only, Standard 5x5, 15-hitter/10-pitcher. $260 budget, 8 keeper league, (7 bench players are acquired via FAAB budget after the auction). Based on the CVRC calculations for my league and the players that have been designated as keepers I've calculated that auction inflation is at 16%.

Rather than adding 16% of value to each remaining players value (which would overflate the value of lower valued players) I'm looking for a more efficient and accurate method of figuring out how much each player's value is to my specific team going into the auction. I was wondering if the following would make sense:

I've kept 3 hitters at a total of $37 and 3 pitchers at a total of $9 keepers. In the past, the league as a whole has a hitter/pitcher split of approx. 70/30; I've budgeted 75% or $195 for hitting and 25% or $65 for pitching. I've gone into the player data base of the CVRC and deleted all the players that all the league owners have designated as keepers. Then I edited the database to form two player pools: OF & C.

Next I went into league set-up and input customized information as if the entire league was going into the auction in my situation and with my planned hitting/pitching allocation:
* 20 Catchers (since I did not retain a catcher)
* 100 OF (since the 3 hitters I retained are non-catchers)
* $158 for my budget ($195 - $37 salaries of my keepers = $158)
* .93 for % to hitting (this accounts for the fact that I plan on spending .75 of my budget on hitting while the league as a whole spends .70 on hitting)
* I then did similar for pitching

The values that came out seemed to be much more in line with what owners have historically paid for the remaining top players. For example, Pujols pre-inflation value was something like $35, his post inflation value using the above method was $48 which seems much closer to the price he'll actually go for than if I just added the 16% inflation rate to $35. Overall, the number of $1, $2, $3 players stayed about the same with the inflation factoring into the higher priced players.

Have you or anyone you know done something like this? Do you see it as useful? Why or why not? Any thoughts or comments would be welcome.

User avatar
Todd Zola
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8262
Joined: December 25th, 2008, 12:45 pm

Re: Using CVRC to Calculate Auction Inflation Values

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

What you have done is perfect. Though to be a little anal if someone else is reading, you do not want to delete players on the Player Page, it is best to CLEAR CONTENTS. Operations like deleting, cut and insert can mess up the coding.

Now with that said, obviously, there is nothing WRONG with doing what you have done. Others have done it and we talk about it every season. HOWEVER, I know you do and I trust others realize these inflation adjusted values are even more of abstract guide and less of a concrete static number than "regular" values. if you need a little nudge to convince yourself to go the extra buck on the high end players, then by all means do this exercise. But in no way should these be a red light/green light designation. It is more an elegant mathematical manner to force the values to emulate real life than it is a scientific means to determine actual inflated value.

I talk about this in last week's SI.com essay....

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/f ... index.html

okay, I have done sufficient "soap-boxing".
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

gmatles
Major League Regular
Posts: 66
Joined: February 3rd, 2010, 7:45 pm

Re: Using CVRC to Calculate Auction Inflation Values

#3 Post by gmatles »

Todd,

Thanks for taking the time to comment.

One of the issues I've had in previous keeper league auctions has been deciding how much is too much for the remaining players. I think this method will give me a better handle on when and when not to jump in.

I plan on going into the auction with a list of remaining players that has their pre-inflation value in one column and their post-inflation value in the column next to that. I think this will give me a pretty good general guideline as to when to go the few extra dollars as well as help reveal the flow and pattern of the auction (i.e the points when player should be going for below value).

Again, thanks for your comments and help.

GM

Post Reply