New Projections

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Todd Zola
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Re: New Projections

#41 Post by Todd Zola »

Right now they are so fluid it would be difficult but starting for the weekly deliveries in March, we will see what we can do.
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Re: New Projections

#42 Post by david_hume »

i imagine you are mostly changing playing time, but how much tweaking of the skills projections do you do?

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Re: New Projections

#43 Post by Todd Zola »

Slim and None and Gary has Slim tied up and gagged in his basement.

UNLESS....

A reliever is in line for saves

Something slipped through that we would have changed from the beginning, but hopefully enough eyeballs will hit the numbers so there are not any.

We should note, however, that pitcher wins are tied to team runs scored, so that could change if a team betters or worsens its projected runs scored.
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Re: New Projections

#44 Post by viper »

is Damon about the only hitter who can significantly modify a set of OF/DH projections? Of the free agent hitters, he seems to be the only one who will have a guaranteed starting position.

also, I counted up the plate appearances for each team [idle mind, devil's playground syndrome], and the team by team variation was quite high. Thoughts?
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Re: New Projections

#45 Post by Todd Zola »

I think Dye could have an impact depending on where he signs.

With respect to the team totals, we compare to their recent totals and shoot for something logical in the ballpark. Most are there, so if there is variation, it is because there is normal variation.

Boston presently has more PA than they should because technically, Lowell is still on the team so I need to put BOS next to his name. I have no expectation he will play with the Red Sox this season. Subtract out his total, and Boston is in the expected range.
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Re: New Projections

#46 Post by viper »

is the range roughly 5800-6300?
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Re: New Projections

#47 Post by viper »

interesting, the 2009 range was from 5696-5398

note [wrong numbers - see later post]
Last edited by viper on February 18th, 2010, 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Projections

#48 Post by Todd Zola »

The 3-year average range is 6120-6411.

We assume 300 plate appearances for a pitcher for each NL team.

Adding in that 300, we have 24 teams in that range, spanning from 6139-6437.

The missing 6 teams have

5994
5947
5937
5832
5804
5541

I feel pretty confident we will be 30 for 30 before too long.
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Re: New Projections

#49 Post by Todd Zola »

FWIW, last season, we used a different number. I believe 600 as the PA for pitchers in the NL so the aggregate NL totals are lower from last season.
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Re: New Projections

#50 Post by viper »

the 2009 range was 6323-5884. I forgot to add walks on my prior post. Amazing what stats are so easily findable on the internet.
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Re: New Projections

#51 Post by Kelly_Leak »

Can you tell me how you calculate OBP and SLG. Am I missing something with HBP and sacrifices? I cannot get your numbers to match up exactly (like I can with BA).

I tried:
SLG = TB/AB
OBP = (H+BB)/(AB+BB) -- I can see where HBP would affect this calc, but the OBPs I am getting are already higher than what is given in the projection.

These two are only off a little bit from player to player. However, when combining the values to calculate OPS the errors (obviously) compound. I have seen as much as 0.036 in error (Ross Gload is at 0.615, but calculating using the actual projections yields 0.651).

Thanks
10 Team 5x5 (OBP) AL-Only; 100 FAAB; *6 Keepers
1C: J.Lucroy; 1B: H.Ramirez; 2B: A.Cabrera; 3B: A.Bregman*; SS: R.Martin; MI: M.Semien; CI: C.Davis; OF: C.Stewart, T.Pham*, C.Mullins, J.Bradley, E.Jimenez*; DH: N.Cruz
10P: K.Herrera, C.Rodon, B.Snell*, J.Junis, H.Strickland, J.Verlander, M.Givens, C.Roe, T.Cahill, L.Giolito
Bench: N.Lowe, V.GuerreroJr*, J.Choi, F.Whitley, A.Hays
DL: F.Lindor*, B.Zimmer, D.Duffy

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Re: New Projections

#52 Post by Todd Zola »

Kelly_Leak wrote:Can you tell me how you calculate OBP and SLG. Am I missing something with HBP and sacrifices? I cannot get your numbers to match up exactly (like I can with BA).

I tried:
SLG = TB/AB
OBP = (H+BB)/(AB+BB) -- I can see where HBP would affect this calc, but the OBPs I am getting are already higher than what is given in the projection.

These two are only off a little bit from player to player. However, when combining the values to calculate OPS the errors (obviously) compound. I have seen as much as 0.036 in error (Ross Gload is at 0.615, but calculating using the actual projections yields 0.651).

Thanks
It has to do with rounding, something I should have had the foresight to correct.

We base everything off of Plate Appearances. That is, plate appearances is the WHOLE NUMBER. The player's walk rate then determines that AB so the at bat is really a decimal, as are all the stats. We display them as rounded off whole numbers.

We calculate BA/OBP/SLP in the main projection engine, then I c/p it into the templates we post. You are calculating using the rounded off whole numbers.

What I should do, and will do going forward is set up a template to determine the rate stats from the whole numbers, to eliminate this confusion. We switched to a different engine and somewhat embarrassingly, it never struck me to fix this.

But Kelly does bring up a good point for those in OBP leagues. We use strictly BB in the OBP calculation. There are definitely some batters with a higher penchant of getting hit, increasing their OBP. You can account for this by adding in some extra BB if you want.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: New Projections

#53 Post by BeanTown »

Hello all,
First off I'd like to say great site! Loads of information and knowledgeable people here and it has been a pleasure to read through the articles and forums.

Now, at the risk of asking a potentially dumb question with my first post... Will there be projections available for high profile prospects such as Jason Heyward and Aroldis Chapman? I've noticed that to date there hasn't been any projections for these two players in particular and I expect them to definitely get some playing time this season. I apologize if this has been answered somewhere else on the site but I've taken a look around and couldn't find anything.

Thanks.

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Re: New Projections

#54 Post by Todd Zola »

There is now pretty solid evidence that Heyward will be with the Braves, if not break camp as their starting RF so he will be added to the set for March 4. We can use his minor league numbers as a foundation and do our own translation. We may be a bit conservative on playing time and adjust as the spring progresses, but if one uses the CVRC, they can prorate the numbers anyway they desire and get a value/ranking accordingly.

Chapman is a bit different in that we honestly have no clue as to how he will perform, similar to Strasburg. We will find whatever stats we can, which as some know is difficult for Cuban imports and translate them as best we can, but in reality, we have no idea how the player will perform.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

BeanTown

Re: New Projections

#55 Post by BeanTown »

Thanks Todd

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Re: New Projections

#56 Post by Kelly_Leak »

Where's Jason Heyward? I thought he was getting added.

An initial glance of the total players projected shows a decrease of about 25 hitters and 25 pitchers. Was much of the discussion over the past weekend about dropping certain players. Chris Shelton initially sticks out as he was always the last valued player when I ran the CVRC.
10 Team 5x5 (OBP) AL-Only; 100 FAAB; *6 Keepers
1C: J.Lucroy; 1B: H.Ramirez; 2B: A.Cabrera; 3B: A.Bregman*; SS: R.Martin; MI: M.Semien; CI: C.Davis; OF: C.Stewart, T.Pham*, C.Mullins, J.Bradley, E.Jimenez*; DH: N.Cruz
10P: K.Herrera, C.Rodon, B.Snell*, J.Junis, H.Strickland, J.Verlander, M.Givens, C.Roe, T.Cahill, L.Giolito
Bench: N.Lowe, V.GuerreroJr*, J.Choi, F.Whitley, A.Hays
DL: F.Lindor*, B.Zimmer, D.Duffy

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Re: New Projections

#57 Post by Todd Zola »

He should have been, I will check the file.

Almost all of the eliminated players were free agents. We left some on, the ones whose names are still being mentioned.

There were a few players on teams we took off as their team signed other players. Sometimes signing one player leads to dropping of two, depending on the situation.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: New Projections

#58 Post by Todd Zola »

I don't have the master file with me, I know Heyward was added, I will get the corrected file to JP this evening.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: New Projections

#59 Post by Todd Zola »

I'm at a loss because JP and I talked about how many AB to give him. My guess is I did not change the team designation to ATL and he got deleted out.

The projection was actually pretty optimistic and our engine usually is conservative with rookies. His MLEs mus thave translated very well.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: New Projections

#60 Post by Kelly_Leak »

Todd Zola wrote:I'm at a loss because JP and I talked about how many AB to give him. My guess is I did not change the team designation to ATL and he got deleted out.

The projection was actually pretty optimistic and our engine usually is conservative with rookies. His MLEs mus thave translated very well.
No problem. Looking forward to seeing the projection for Heyward.

Two additional minor fixes.
1. Garret Anderson - signing was probably too late for this update.
2. Chien-Ming Wang's league is still blank. Needs to be updated "N".
10 Team 5x5 (OBP) AL-Only; 100 FAAB; *6 Keepers
1C: J.Lucroy; 1B: H.Ramirez; 2B: A.Cabrera; 3B: A.Bregman*; SS: R.Martin; MI: M.Semien; CI: C.Davis; OF: C.Stewart, T.Pham*, C.Mullins, J.Bradley, E.Jimenez*; DH: N.Cruz
10P: K.Herrera, C.Rodon, B.Snell*, J.Junis, H.Strickland, J.Verlander, M.Givens, C.Roe, T.Cahill, L.Giolito
Bench: N.Lowe, V.GuerreroJr*, J.Choi, F.Whitley, A.Hays
DL: F.Lindor*, B.Zimmer, D.Duffy

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Re: New Projections

#61 Post by Todd Zola »

Kelly_Leak wrote:
Two additional minor fixes.
1. Garret Anderson - signing was probably too late for this update.
2. Chien-Ming Wang's league is still blank. Needs to be updated "N".
1. Not anymore it's not ;)
2. Gracias
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Re: New Projections

#62 Post by viper »

the projections have a MIX15 player value. I assume this was determined using CVRC. What were the parameters used? Specifically the hitting percentage, category weights, BA and number required at various positions. Thanks
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Re: New Projections

#63 Post by Todd Zola »

Same as we have done since Dec.

2 pools, C and non-C

hitting .69

weights as they are defaulted on the CVRC

Is there an issue with the numbers? If so, can you be specific?
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Re: New Projections

#64 Post by viper »

no issues at all. I saw that the eligibility issues were corrected. And that Coste was missing - not being in the majors probably impacts your value.

I'm curious how the defaults batting average was identified. I'm more of a .275 guy but my guess is that it won't sway the results by much if any. Thinking in terms of tiers makes my previous efforts for precision seem like a waste of time.

Knowing how values are determined helps so much.
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Re: New Projections

#65 Post by Todd Zola »

The default is explained amidst the supporting CVRC primer -- it is a strictly empirical formula used to estimate the last place team. It comes from the data of the player pool for each league. It has no basis in logic other than it gets the number close enough.

Changing to .275 will make a big difference. I have the BA conversion at several baselines and prefer that of the last place team.
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Re: New Projections

#66 Post by viper »

I need to check out the BA differences.

How are the default ERA & WHIP determined? Is it last place team or something different?
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Re: New Projections

#67 Post by Todd Zola »

All are estimates of the last place team
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Re: New Projections

#68 Post by viper »

Garret Anderson to the Dodgers. Projected ABs tumble.
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Re: New Projections

#69 Post by aburt19 »

One question and one comment on the March 25th projections.

Garrett Atkins lost AB and Ty Wigginton gained AB. Is this based on comments by Orioles management or not?

Alberto Callaspo AB are too low. Rotoworld had a comment from the Royals manager in the last couple of days where he
said that he was going to try to use Callaspo in the #3 spot in the lineup because his was too important to hit sixth or
seventh in the lineup. I don't know where and at whose expense he will get the AB, but whether it's at 3B, DH or 2B, he
will play more than the 273 AB that is in the projection. You don't bat someone third in the lineup this late in ST that you
don't expect to play regularly. I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least 400 AB and it wouldn't surprise me if it's more.

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Re: New Projections

#70 Post by Todd Zola »

aburt19 wrote:One question and one comment on the March 25th projections.

Garrett Atkins lost AB and Ty Wigginton gained AB. Is this based on comments by Orioles management or not?

Alberto Callaspo AB are too low. Rotoworld had a comment from the Royals manager in the last couple of days where he
said that he was going to try to use Callaspo in the #3 spot in the lineup because his was too important to hit sixth or
seventh in the lineup. I don't know where and at whose expense he will get the AB, but whether it's at 3B, DH or 2B, he
will play more than the 273 AB that is in the projection. You don't bat someone third in the lineup this late in ST that you
don't expect to play regularly. I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least 400 AB and it wouldn't surprise me if it's more.
re: Atkins -- this was simply a site decision based on what we see, nothing more

re: Callaspo -- my read is that he is filling in for Gordon and once Gordon is back, he goes back to the bench. Getz is going to play 2B and Gordon is going to play 3B when healthy. It would not surprise me at all if they got rid of Guillen and opened up at bats as DH (maybe putting Butler there and Gordon at 1B), but we cannot "PROJECT" that. So the at bats given to Callaspo reflect what we expect him to get when playing for Gordon plus the added as the fill in sub. I don't happen to agree with the sentiment that because he is being tried in teh 3-hole, he is therefore an automatic starter the rest of the season. I think Hillman is looking at the best set up of the available hitters. It isn't even a guarantee Callaspo opens the season batting 3rd. Though it is likely.

We have said all along we encourage people to season the projections with their own opinion of playing time.

http://www.kansascity.com/2010/03/24/18 ... oster.html

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... Id=rss_mlb
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Re: New Projections

#71 Post by viper »

In the pitcher's CVRC, there is a Texas pitcher named #N/A. He appears to be a decnt MR. Is he a rookie or what? He was also in the 3/18 CVRC so I guess he hasn't been sent down yet.
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Re: New Projections

#72 Post by Todd Zola »

Darren O'Day

thought I fixed that --

I'll cleanup the file(s)
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Re: New Projections

#73 Post by aburt19 »

This may have been brought up in another thread. You increased the innings for C.J. Wilson to show that he is a starter,
but left him with 11 saves.

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Re: New Projections

#74 Post by Todd Zola »

aburt19 wrote:This may have been brought up in another thread. You increased the innings for C.J. Wilson to show that he is a starter,
but left him with 11 saves.
Meant to shift those to Neftali Feliz, thanks
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Re: New Projections

#75 Post by Kelly_Leak »

Are you posting an updated Pitcher Projection file or should I just simply subtract the 11 saves from Wilson and give them to Feliz? Just wanted to confirm that all 11 saves were being deducted from Wilson and given all to Feliz.
10 Team 5x5 (OBP) AL-Only; 100 FAAB; *6 Keepers
1C: J.Lucroy; 1B: H.Ramirez; 2B: A.Cabrera; 3B: A.Bregman*; SS: R.Martin; MI: M.Semien; CI: C.Davis; OF: C.Stewart, T.Pham*, C.Mullins, J.Bradley, E.Jimenez*; DH: N.Cruz
10P: K.Herrera, C.Rodon, B.Snell*, J.Junis, H.Strickland, J.Verlander, M.Givens, C.Roe, T.Cahill, L.Giolito
Bench: N.Lowe, V.GuerreroJr*, J.Choi, F.Whitley, A.Hays
DL: F.Lindor*, B.Zimmer, D.Duffy

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Todd Zola
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Re: New Projections

#76 Post by Todd Zola »

I don't have FTP until later, but that is the correction, yes.

I have concerns that Francisco can make it full a season healthy.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

egargiulo

Re: New Projections

#77 Post by egargiulo »

Where do I access the projections on the site

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Todd Zola
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Re: New Projections

#78 Post by Todd Zola »

You need to be logged into the front page with your username and p/w. Then all you need to do is click on the same menu tab you used to subscribe for either the Gold or Platinum Plan. Once you are there, it is evident where everything is.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: New Projections

#79 Post by aburt19 »

I was curious about Mike Sweeney not having a projection. He's probably not going to play a ton, so it might not make
much difference. I had heard he was going to make the team.

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Todd Zola
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Re: New Projections

#80 Post by Todd Zola »

aburt19 wrote:I was curious about Mike Sweeney not having a projection. He's probably not going to play a ton, so it might not make
much difference. I had heard he was going to make the team.
Dang it, I got so wrapped up in thinking about Garko in Texas I didn't do the associated fix in Seattle. We'll give him 100AB give or take, and considering he likely won't ever have anything more than DH/UT eligibility, he's only relevant in the deepest of leagues.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Todd Zola
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Re: New Projections

#81 Post by Todd Zola »

The Seattle infield is sort of a mess with no real backups to speak of with Hannahan hurt. Josh Wilson, Carp, Tuiasosopo...hard to say who sticks.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: New Projections

#82 Post by alleyoops »

In the 4/1 hitters file, the Mix12 and Mix15 columns in the main hitters sheet have identical data (looks like both have Mix12). Guess I can copy/paste from the Mix15 sheet, but probably better to correct it so folks aren't misled.

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Todd Zola
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Re: New Projections

#83 Post by Todd Zola »

thanks, will get correct file up in the morning
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: New Projections

#84 Post by aburt19 »

Just when you think that the projections might be settling down a little, it's being reported that the A's are going to
designate Jack Cust for assignment and keep both T. Buck and J. Fox.

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Re: New Projections

#85 Post by viper »

Fortunately, I only have Cust on three of my five teams. Wait, did I say fortunately? I cannot believe he won't get a job but stranger things have happened.

I have him in both my NFBC leagues but I also have players to fill-in so I can wait a bit there. I also have him in a no-bench AL-only league. The good and bad news is that our first FAAB period will be April 11. There I have a week to let things settle.
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