"Best" method for initial draft

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rmiller
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Joined: January 1st, 2009, 5:08 pm
Preferred Style: Diamond Mind, Scoresheet AL & BL, Roto 5x5 (OBA, 12 teams)
Location: Oakland CA

"Best" method for initial draft

#1 Post by rmiller »

I'm starting a new historical Diamond Mind league in July. It will be a perpetual league commencing with the 1969 season. Only players who had a plate appearance or faced a batter in 1969 are eligible to be drafted, but once drafted can be kept indefinitely (with a few restrictions).

Is a straight snake draft the "most fair?" I remember reading something about football leagues that suggested you have the order for round 1 and the reverse order for EVERY subsequent round being the most fair. But, baseball teams draft much deeper, so this may not be necessary where we're drafting 40 man teams.

If you have your own opinions/theories, or can point me to some others, I'd be grateful.

Best regards,
Rob
"Smell the Glove"

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Todd Zola
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Re: "Best" method for initial draft

#2 Post by Todd Zola »

I'll provide some general info and let you apply it as you see fit.

In fantasy baseball and football, if you "graph a draft" with post-season stats (or pre-season projections), you will find what I call a "value slope" in the first few rounds. That is, the difference in "value" between consecutive players is greatest early on, largest in the first round and declining from there. If you look at the difference in value between the first player drafted and last player drafted in each round, in the first few round, say 1st 3 or 4, there is a measurable difference, that is you can say the first player is better than the last player. After that, the value difference is within error of how you quantify value, and certainly within error associated with projections.

In football, there performances are more predictable and everything is converted to the common denominator of fantasy points -- there is no hitting vs. pitching, speed versus power, saves versus strikeouts to cloud value. There are positions, so a replacement type adjustment needs to be done, but it is nowhere near as difficult to predict or value, hence the early picks in the first round give you an advantage. Yes, there are busts, you can win from anywhere, but there is an advantage to picking early. So to mitigate this, some leagues do not completely snake the draft, that is they flip a round in an effort to even things out. In the National Fantasy Football Championship, they use 3RR or 3rd round reversal. The order goes...

1st round 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
2nd round 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
3rd round 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
4th round 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
5th round 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
and it continues to snake from here.

The idea is value slope in compensated for in round 3.

The NFBC does not use 3RR -- even though this "value slope" exists. The reason is actual performance always differs significantly from projections, so it is not necessary to compensate. With a small sample alert, think about this season's top-4 of Hanley, Reyes, Pujols and Wright. It is early, but so far Reyes and Wright will be hard-pressed to finish that high. Football plays true to form more than baseball.

So with that as a backdrop, the question you need to ask yourself is if the first few players are significantly more valuable than the rest and if you have a early pick, is your team at a decided advantage? If yes, you may want to do a flip of a round along the way.
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Hambowen

Re: "Best" method for initial draft

#3 Post by Hambowen »

Even though not the topic here ... It is interesting that the NFFC uses a 3rd round reversal. Everyone knows what a clear advantage it is in football to get the first few picks depending on the year. We always figured there was nothing we could do about it. This might be an option.

Thanks for the indirect help of my leagues with the info Todd!

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