Keeper Strategy

[captgus]

I was wondering what the thoughts out there are on keeper strategy, as it relates to perceived value and money left for the auction? Would you be better served going into an auction with no keepers having the full amount of money to spend during the auction, or enter an auction with a list of high priced keepers (albeit below what they would fetch during auction taking inflation into consideration), leaving you with 'the short stack of chips at the table?' I suppose a blend of both is an option as well, any comments would be greatly appreciated.

[Todd Zola]

I was wondering what the thoughts out there are on keeper strategy, as it relates to perceived value and money left for the auction? Would you be better served going into an auction with no keepers having the full amount of money to spend during the auction, or enter an auction with a list of high priced keepers (albeit below what they would fetch during auction taking inflation into consideration), leaving you with 'the short stack of chips at the table?' I suppose a blend of both is an option as well, any comments would be greatly appreciated.

The question can't be answered in a vacuum - it's completely dependent upon your keepers and what's available to be purchased - along with your agenda and the league's penchant for dump trading.

[captgus]

The question can't be answered in a vacuum - it's completely dependent upon your keepers and what's available to be purchased - along with your agenda and the league's penchant for dump trading.

Thanks Todd, I guess I always looked at compiling keepers with the goal of having as much money available at the draft as possible. Dump trades are in play and happen often. Having big name arms and bats late in July can and usually will get flipped. League details are 12 team mixed, $265 budget (don't ask me why) with your standard 23 starters; 14 offensive with CI, MI and UT and 9 pitchers. You can keep up to 8 who carry the same salary from the previous years. Players picked up on waivers carry an automatic $10 salary, hence Odor's. The available pool is yet to be determined but I've been making my best guesses trying to identify positions that may be thinned out a bit. With that said I'm leaning towards the following:

Posey $30
d'Arnaud $7
Odor $10
K.Davis $7
J.Upton $26
Kershaw $46
C.Allen $17
Boxberger $1


Howie Kendrick could be kept for $3 but not having been signed yet gives me reason to pause. As well as the fact that it's highly probable I could acquire him again for near the same amount.

If I wanted to go all in, sit on my thumbs waiting for value plays or the end game, I could keep Braun @ $35 and Adrian Gonzalez @ $29.

Thanks for your insight and feedback!

[Todd Zola]

In a rush now -- will circle back (but maybe not until tomorrow night) but there's nothing wrong with keeping salary - sometimes it's the better path.

[captgus]

No hurry, please take your time.

[Trav The Ump]

Just to give you something more to think about; are you a better drafter or in-season manager? I know some guys who can't draft their way to a bottom 3 team yet manage to work the wire and trade lines all season to contend. Meanwhile I'm the type of player who feels like I can outdraft most guys in the room. Not a perfect analogy but in my keeper football league this year I came in with a blank slate. No keepers. I talked to some of the guys in the league and it sounded like lots of expensive guys would be kept, my list was mediocre at best. Figured me with a full wallet could work around some teams tied to big money players. Paid off but that's a high risk strategy.

Whether you're using MB values or your own make sure they are truly keepers and you've got inflation ballparked correctly.

[Todd Zola]

This is admittedly an oversimplification but it illustrates why it's fine to keep salary under some circumstances.

Let's say we're in the same league and it has 25 percent inflation.

I keep $200 worth of salary and estimate the players to be worth $230.

You keep $60 worth of salary and estimate the players to be worth $100.

Applying the inflation linearly, I have $60 and am able to buy $45 worth or talent TOTAL = $275

You have $200 so you're able to buy $150 more TOTAL = $250

It's not always what you keep, but how much you give back by having to pay inflated prices for the available inventory.

In reality, inflation isn't distributed linearly. By the time I'm able to spend my $60, it has significantly reduced or even flipped to deflation, so I'm actually likely to but at least $60 worth of talent with my $60.

Similarly, depending on where you decide to jump in, not all of your $200 will be buying players at a 25 percent discount. Maybe you make one big purchase then wait for the inflation to come down. When you have $60 left, you're in the same situation as me.

The main point is, the more money you have to spend, the more you'll have to buy players at inflated prices to make sure you spend it all. Buying players at inflated prices means you're giving back some of the profit from your keepers.

The actual numbers are league dependent and also affected by the available inventory and the spending habits of your league mates. Inflation can abate really quickly if you have a couple of owners going goofy on the available studs. Hopefully, though, this at least shows that there isn't a single right or wrong way to approach keepers.

[captgus]

Thanks Todd, it's great food for thought and your comments on the fluctuation of inflation really hits home thinking back to prior auctions!